can public transport ever recover from COVID-19

[AdamWW]

I've just had an email from Northern (first for months), which reveals that "At Northern we're ready to welcome you back, and we wanted to let you know what we're doing to keep you safe when you travel with us."

How generous of them to be prepared to welcome us back after months of telling us where to go!

The rest of the email is of course largely filled up with lists of all the cleaning they are doing (there's a first for everything - cleaning was not previously somethng which any of the Northern franchises have had any great belief in), and the inevitable instructions as to what you must do and not do...

I understand your response, but I'd love to get something like that from TFW Rail rather than repeated emails to remind me that I am not at all welcome on their services.

 

[yorksrob]

I've just had an email from Northern (first for months), which reveals that "At Northern we're ready to welcome you back, and we wanted to let you know what we're doing to keep you safe when you travel with us."

How generous of them to be prepared to welcome us back after months of telling us where to go!

The rest of the email is of course largely filled up with lists of all the cleaning they are doing (there's a first for everything - cleaning was not previously somethng which any of the Northern franchises have had any great belief in), and the inevitable instructions as to what you must do and not do...

They need to get their tmetables sorted out then.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I understand your response, but I'd love to get something like that from TFW Rail rather than repeated emails to remind me that I am not at all welcome on their services.

TfW is in probably the worst position of any TOC with regard to capacity issues, and so other than going for compulsory reservations I really don't see how it can. Northern, with all the 195s and 331s delivered, is in a far better position.

Given the issues it's causing, though, perhaps TfW need to consider commissioning some additional bus services to cover the need of those who don't own cars. They could be sold as all-reserved rail replacement, so as to use the PSVAR exemption (wheelchair users could be carried on the train) and so give the stricken coach companies some work over a long period, making it worth de-SORNing and de-furloughing.

 

[AdamWW]

TfW is in probably the worst position of any TOC with regard to capacity issues, and so other than going for compulsory reservations I really don't see how it can. Northern, with all the 195s and 331s delivered, is in a far better position.

Given the issues it's causing, though, perhaps TfW need to consider commissioning some additional bus services to cover the need of those who don't own cars. They could be sold as all-reserved rail replacement, so as to use the PSVAR exemption (wheelchair users could be carried on the train) and so give the stricken coach companies some work over a long period, making it worth de-SORNing and de-furloughing.

Well if it's compulsory reservations or nothing, why not?

Assuming it's really true that most services really would become dangerously full if they dropped the blanket "ban" on non-essential travel. I'm yet to be convinced of that give how empty many off-peak services were in the past, never mind what they are like now.

And I am really not convinced that this is just about capacity issues. There seems to be a political decision in Wales to only fund public transport for "key workers" and that it must remain a "safe space" for them. I don't think we'll see additional bus services because the government is quite happy just to tell everyone without a car to stay at home.

 

[Seehof]

I am horrified at how the railway industry has “enjoyed” making itself so unwelcoming and virtually scaring everybody. Going on and on about cleaning and with ridiculous ways to get round a station to get to your train. Here compulsory reservation on LNER and always the threat you might not get on. Staff who need a large section of a train roped off for their safety! I could go on - it makes my blood boil!
Nobody I know travels by train now.
I hate seeing this!
I am very fearful of a new round of “Beeching like” cuts. Please somebody correct me!

 

[philosopher]

I am very fearful of a new round of “Beeching like” cuts. Please somebody correct me!

I think a round of Beeching like cuts are unlikely as I think it would be politically unacceptable in the current climate. The issues of global warming and traffic congestion are not going to go away because of this.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I think a round of Beeching like cuts are unlikely as I think it would be politically unacceptable in the current climate. The issues of global warming and traffic congestion are not going to go away because of this.

The only line in Wales even vaguely likely to close in the near future[1] is the Conwy Valley, and the only reason it would be likely to close would be serious weather-related damage, such as an irreparable collapse in the Blaenau tunnel, and even then it might remain north of Betws only, that being by far the busiest bit (if that doesn't wash away completely).

[1] Though on a longer horizon (50-100 years maybe), it's possible that land abandonment around sea level could render the Cambrian Coast non-viable, as it's really very near sea level and would require unjustifiably expensive sea defences, particularly around Harlech.

 

[trebor79]

Where does 14 people per carriage come from and why do some TOCs do this and some not?
No such policy on GA, SWR and probably others.

Surely any "risk" is identical for train and plane?

 

[MontyMinerWA]

The only line in Wales even vaguely likely to close in the near future[1] is the Conwy Valley, and the only reason it would be likely to close would be serious weather-related damage, such as an irreparable collapse in the Blaenau tunnel, and even then it might remain north of Betws only, that being by far the busiest bit (if that doesn't wash away completely).

[1] Though on a longer horizon (50-100 years maybe), it's possible that land abandonment around sea level could render the Cumbrian Coast non-viable, as it's really very near sea level and would require unjustifiably expensive sea defences, particularly around Harlech.

Apologies in advance for being a pedantic git. Did you mean to say Cambrian rather than Cumbrian?
Sorry.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Apologies in advance for being a pedantic git. Did you mean to say Cambrian rather than Cumbrian?
Sorry.

Sorry, yes I did indeed mean Cambrian, I'll edit it. The Cumbrian Coast is generally set far higher up from sea level, and while it might need some work in the manner of Dawlish rising sea levels don't threaten it in quite the same way.

 

[Non Multi]

I think a round of Beeching like cuts are unlikely as I think it would be politically unacceptable in the current climate. The issues of global warming and traffic congestion are not going to go away because of this.

Running virtually empty passenger trains around for much of the day isn't environmentally friendly either. The sheer number of empty trains is also financially unsustainable in the long term.

Tough decisions will have to be made eventually if passenger numbers remain as they are. Having plenty of holidaymakers during the summer months did not save Devon and Cornwall branch lines from closure.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Running virtually empty passenger trains around for much of the day isn't environmentally friendly either. The sheer number of empty trains is also financially unsustainable in the long term.

Tough decisions will have to be made eventually if passenger numbers remain as they are. Having plenty of holidaymakers during the summer months did not save Devon and Cornwall branch lines from closure.

I'm not sure it's those 2-car DMUs that are the ones knocking around empty (or at least not any more than usual) - you might find you need to cut WCML frequencies a bit though.

And a lot of Devon and Cornwall branches do survive for exactly that reason!

 

[sheff1]

In Sheffield it seems they are trying their best to ensure public transport does not recover. Two days ago I spotted these:

1. Displayed prominently at the main entrance doors to the railway station

"Stay home to help us save lives"

2. Displayed at seemingly every stand in the bus station

"Please do not use public transport unless you need to".

The bus station was like a ghost town. I caught the X17 to Matlock with just one other passenger.

 

[yorkie]

In Sheffield it seems they are trying their best to ensure public transport does not recover. Two days ago I spotted these:
...

If I see an out of date sign relating to this matter, and it's possible to remove it myself, I tend to do that. Cookham and Kennishead have had outdated signs (stating "essential travel only") removed. Another forum member tweeted West Midlands Trains regarding a similar sign, and it was removed impressively promptly (the Twitter team must have contacted the station staff directly).

 

[Bletchleyite]

If I see an out of date sign relating to this matter, and it's possible to remove it myself, I tend to do that. Cookham and Kennishead have had outdated signs (stating "essential travel only") removed. Another forum member tweeted West Midlands Trains regarding a similar sign, and it was removed impressively promptly (the Twitter team must have contacted the station staff directly).

The problem here is probably one of asset management - the things were whacked up indiscriminately, and unlike normal advertising posters nobody quite knows what is where.

 

[NorthOxonian]

The problem here is probably one of asset management - the things were whacked up indiscriminately, and unlike normal advertising posters nobody quite knows what is where.

I wonder if spotting the last vestiges of coronavirus signage will be like spotting the last vestiges of NSE in the future. Someone mentioned that in jest, but increasingly I can imagine someone stumbling across a poster in the depths of some small town bus station in twenty years time!

Hopefully public transport will have recovered and even be thriving by then!

 

[route101]

Still notices on Scotrail TVMs saying essential travel only . I was at Glasgow Central and they may of stopped the NR facemask and ' stories' announcements, as i didnt hear them.

I was on two Scotrail services yesterday, noticed that certain pairs of airline seats had there tables in the down position, maybe to block out seats for social distancing?

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Some research from China on infection rates on there high speed network suggests that infection risk is a combination of distance and exposure time. If applied to our IC network it will forever be constrained in capacity so lets hope Dept of Transport fight the Treasury over the need to maintain service levels even though there is reduced usage if the financial screws are being turned.

https://www.southampton.ac.uk/news/2020/07/train-transmission.page

COVID-19 has a high transmission risk among train passengers, but this risk shows significant differences with co-travel time and seat location. During disease outbreaks, when travelling on public transportation in confined spaces such as trains, measures should be taken to reduce the risk of transmission, including increasing seat distance, reducing passenger density, and use of personal hygiene protection.

 

[yorksrob]

Some research from China on infection rates on there high speed network suggests that infection risk is a combination of distance and exposure time. If applied to our IC network it will forever be constrained in capacity so lets hope Dept of Transport fight the Treasury over the need to maintain service levels even though there is reduced usage if the financial screws are being turned.

https://www.southampton.ac.uk/news/2020/07/train-transmission.page

If the study is correct, it shows a comparatively low risk (to my mind) of catching it from someone on the train (3% if sitting next to someone with it).

Together with potential treatments of the disease and development of jabs, this suggests that any limit on capacity will likely be short lived.

 

[AdamWW]

If the study is correct, it shows a comparatively low risk (to my mind) of catching it from someone on the train (3% if sitting next to someone with it).

Together with potential treatments of the disease and development of jabs, this suggests that any limit on capacity will likely be short lived.

To me it's also very interesting that the risk comes from sitting close to an infected person - i.e. no evidence of it being carried around a carriage via the air conditioning.

So it might be useful to look at what air conditioning there was in the type of trains in the study and how it compares to ones in the UK (on trains that have it).

 

[yorksrob]

To me it's also very interesting that the risk comes from sitting close to an infected person - i.e. no evidence of it being carried around a carriage via the air conditioning.

So it might be useful to look at what air conditioning there was in the type of trains in the study and how it compares to ones in the UK (on trains that have it).

That's a good point. There's been a lot of talk about the infection becoming "airborne", however this study if correct, would suggest that it is not a major contributor.

 

[Greybeard33]

To me it's also very interesting that the risk comes from sitting close to an infected person - i.e. no evidence of it being carried around a carriage via the air conditioning.

So it might be useful to look at what air conditioning there was in the type of trains in the study and how it compares to ones in the UK (on trains that have it).

The study did not specifically investigate the role of aircon, but as I pointed out in post #67 of this thread, it only looked at contacts who were sitting within 3 seat rows of the infectious "index case". So it could not have picked up any cases of infection further down the carriage.

The results show a statistically significant rate of infection amongst passengers sitting 3 seat rows away from the index case. I think this is circumstantial evidence for aerosol transmission. The three rows of intervening seat backs should have prevented larger exhaled droplets spreading that far, even if the index case was not wearing a face mask. Also the rate of infection was similar amongst passengers who were two seat rows away to that in passengers who were only one row away. And for passengers in the same row, the rate was similar for those four seats away (opposite side of the carriage) and those in the next but one seat. Again, not what you would expect if transmission was only via droplets that fall to the ground within 1m.

It was these results that lead the study authors to conclude that the safe social distance was more than 2.5m for journeys of more than 2 hours. And the recommendation that:

Increasing ventilation of fresh air, circulation and filtration would be also helpful to reduce the risk of transmission among passengers.

hints that aerosol transmission via the HVAC airflow was suspected.

I have not seen any information on the HVAC system in Chinese G trains. As you say, it would be interesting to compare this with British stock.

 

[AdamWW]

The study did not specifically investigate the role of aircon, but as I pointed out in post #67 of this thread, it only looked at contacts who were sitting within 3 seat rows of the infectious "index case". So it could not have picked up any cases of infection further down the carriage.

The results show a statistically significant rate of infection amongst passengers sitting 3 seat rows away from the index case. I think this is circumstantial evidence for aerosol transmission. The three rows of intervening seat backs should have prevented larger exhaled droplets spreading that far, even if the index case was not wearing a face mask. Also the rate of infection was similar amongst passengers who were two seat rows away to that in passengers who were only one row away. And for passengers in the same row, the rate was similar for those four seats away (opposite side of the carriage) and those in the next but one seat. Again, not what you would expect if transmission was only via droplets that fall to the ground within 1m.

It was these results that lead the study authors to conclude that the safe social distance was more than 2.5m for journeys of more than 2 hours. And the recommendation that:

hints that aerosol transmission via the HVAC airflow was suspected.

I have not seen any information on the HVAC system in Chinese G trains. As you say, it would be interesting to compare this with British stock.

Ah. Not so good news then. That's a shame...

 

[Butts]

Been advised by BA that my flight to Venice tomorrow is virtually full ( free Cabin baggage in Hold) so Air Travel to some places seems to be recovering.

Hopefully the flight from EDI to join it won't be so rammed.

 

[yorksrob]

The study did not specifically investigate the role of aircon, but as I pointed out in post #67 of this thread, it only looked at contacts who were sitting within 3 seat rows of the infectious "index case". So it could not have picked up any cases of infection further down the carriage.

The results show a statistically significant rate of infection amongst passengers sitting 3 seat rows away from the index case. I think this is circumstantial evidence for aerosol transmission. The three rows of intervening seat backs should have prevented larger exhaled droplets spreading that far, even if the index case was not wearing a face mask. Also the rate of infection was similar amongst passengers who were two seat rows away to that in passengers who were only one row away. And for passengers in the same row, the rate was similar for those four seats away (opposite side of the carriage) and those in the next but one seat. Again, not what you would expect if transmission was only via droplets that fall to the ground within 1m.

It was these results that lead the study authors to conclude that the safe social distance was more than 2.5m for journeys of more than 2 hours. And the recommendation that:

hints that aerosol transmission via the HVAC airflow was suspected.

I have not seen any information on the HVAC system in Chinese G trains. As you say, it would be interesting to compare this with British stock.

Given that the chance of catching it from someone within three rows is so small, one can assume that it receeds even further if you're sat further than three rows.

It suggests that someone in a high risk category might think twice but that the majority don't need to.

 

[AdamWW]

Given that the chance of catching it from someone within three rows is so small, one can assume that it receeds even further if you're sat further than three rows.

If by the time you get to three rows you're now catching it from breathing in 'contaminated' recirculating air, it may be that the risk is similar elsewhere in the vehicle, I'd have thought.

 

[boxy321]

I used to use 4 trains and 3 buses a day in the West Midlands to commute. 'Use public transport', 'Use public transport', CoVID, 'Don't use public transport'.

So if you abandon the car, the government will screw you by cutting services and enforcing muzzles to make going to work intolerable just like that? I've now bought a car, work largely from home and haven't suffered public transport since April. Imagine wearing a mask on a bus in this week's heat? I won't be returning to it any time soon sadly, especially if they can 'turn it off' and sanctimoniously suggest a bike instead.

Public transport is simply not dependable now. Buses went from every 5 minutes to 30 minutes and trains even worse. If the means to earn a living can be shut down by a virus for millions of people, the use of trains for work will die.

 

[Bantamzen]

If by the time you get to three rows you're now catching it from breathing in 'contaminated' recirculating air, it may be that the risk is similar elsewhere in the vehicle, I'd have thought.

I disagree, the more the air is circulated, the more the viral load will be diluted by the surrounding air, thus meaning the risk of contamination reduces.

 

[yorksrob]

Public transport is simply not dependable now. Buses went from every 5 minutes to 30 minutes and trains even worse. If the means to earn a living can be shut down by a virus for millions of people, the use of trains for work will die.

This is true.

The ongoing cuts and emergency timetables are what's destroying public transport at the moment.

 

[AdamWW]

I disagree, the more the air is circulated, the more the viral load will be diluted by the surrounding air, thus meaning the risk of contamination reduces.

I agree with that - I'm sure it's true - but once you get to the point that your risk comes from circulated air not proximity to the infected individual, it probably doesn't make much difference where you are in the coach - you're breathing the same recirculated air from 3 seats away and at the far end of the coach.