Carmarthen to Aberystwyth Reopening?

[B&I]

I don't think that's very fair. I can't speak for everyone, and maybe there are some people who - as you put it 'espouse rail travel' for historical-sentimental reasons. But many of us, myself included, argue for rail travel and against investing in roads for the very practical reason that roads are inherently high-polluting and low capacity, and therefore do not offer a practical long-term solution to congestion etc. It seems to me that it is those who argue for road investment who are by and large backwards looking - because those who argue for road investment have clearly not learned the lessons of the last 50 or so years: That improving road capacity as a way to ease congestion rarely works, and almost always ends up self-defeating.

Yes, where is the 'like' button when we need it ? The dominance of private road travel is not due to its inherent superiority as a means of transport, but instead reflects a combination of decades of poor planning decisions, and the unjustified superiority complex afflicting many of its proponents

 

[XDM]

The only way that UK railways in total & a line like this proposed Aberwystyth Cartharthen route would be zero burden on the taxpayer would be if train drivers PAID the government £22 an hour for each hour they sat in the driving seat, rather than receive £50 an hour for each hour they were actually in the cab.

A TOC very high up told us this in private some time ago & we spent a lot of company time trying to prove his sums wrong, but could not.
In other words a subsidy free railway & specially a subsidy free Aberystwyth railway is impossible & totally unacceptable.

 

[squizzler]

I am not sure that people on this thread are not getting too hung up on the official population of the area. I know the Cambrian Coast north of Averdovey and the whole area is littered with caravan parks, holiday cabins and other seasonal dwellings. These visitors move about all through the day, not just the rush hour peaks. Consequently the train service is very busy in the summer.

Tourism is probably the region's main industry (along with heavily subsidised farming). Many of the locals in rural wales are very keen motorists who always seem to have driven a car when you see them about. But the tourism market is very competitive and many younger people who live in cities might not be motorists. the West coast of Wales is competing against overseas destinations and needs to be as easy for English tourists to access by train as continental short break destinations are by plane.

Would the cost of a rail line (subsidy to the tourism industry) cost as much per job created as the subsidies already given to the farming industry in that part of the world? Without those subsidies the local economy would effectively cease to exist.

 

[Gareth Marston]

The only way that UK railways in total & a line like this proposed Aberwystyth Cartharthen route would be zero burden on the taxpayer would be if train drivers PAID the government £22 an hour for each hour they sat in the driving seat, rather than receive £50 an hour for each hour they were actually in the cab.

A TOC very high up told us this in private some time ago & we spent a lot of company time trying to prove his sums wrong, but could not.
In other words a subsidy free railway & specially a subsidy free Aberystwyth railway is impossible & totally unacceptable.

a subsidy free railway - totally unacceptable? Great post

 

[Gareth Marston]

I am not sure that people on this thread are not getting too hung up on the official population of the area. I know the Cambrian Coast north of Averdovey and the whole area is littered with caravan parks, holiday cabins and other seasonal dwellings. These visitors move about all through the day, not just the rush hour peaks. Consequently the train service is very busy in the summer.

Tourism is probably the region's main industry (along with heavily subsidised farming). Many of the locals in rural wales are very keen motorists who always seem to have driven a car when you see them about. But the tourism market is very competitive and many younger people who live in cities might not be motorists. the West coast of Wales is competing against overseas destinations and needs to be as easy for English tourists to access by train as continental short break destinations are by plane.

Would the cost of a rail line (subsidy to the tourism industry) cost as much per job created as the subsidies already given to the farming industry in that part of the world? Without those subsidies the local economy would effectively cease to exist.

I went to Newquay last Saturday place was very busy and caravan parks nearby. Rest of family drove up on Friday but I got train to Aberystwyth then the T5 bus down the coast. Bus very quite on way there but it was Saturday PM and football was on. There was a bus stop outside QuaryWest where i was staying it had no information whatsoever even though it had an hourly bus going from it. There was none in the park reception or in the caravan . There wasn't even a bus stop sign in Cambrian Square in the village - very poor show.

 

[Rhydgaled]

Public transport is grossly inefficient if there’s no demand.

Fair point; but it isn't inherently inefficient as the post I had quoted made out.

You can be reasonably sure that, with the demand of this line, the emissions (of all types) from an hourly 2 car 158 would be substantially higher than if every passenger on the route drove a reasonably modern car for the journey

I'm not so sure; how many cars equal the emmisions of a 158? I once found a figure of 3 miles per gallon (MPG) of fuel for a Sprinter DMU; not sure how accurate that was but assuming a car does 40mpg then I think the mpg per passenger equals out at about 14 passengers if the alternative is single-occupancy cars. Put two pepole in each car and you'd need 27 passengers for the train to be equal. IF the train was faster than driving, or even with a roughly equal journey time (Aberystwyth-Shrewsbury loads quite nicely with a roughly equal journey time) you might get enough cars off the road to average over 20 passengers per train and thus justify it; if you are only abstracting traffic from the bus the greenhouse gas emmisions equation would look very different.

If the train would be slower than driving; then you are probably right and you would never get 20 cars off the road for each train.

Running costs for an hourly service on the line would be in the order of £5m-£7m pa and that doesn’t include track access charges (which would be another couple of million or so). And that assumes someone is happy to build a billion pound railway and not pay back the debt or interest.

You can get a phenomenal amount of bus / coach mileage for that sort of cash, and save the country a billion pounds for far more important things.

So, running costs of £6m per year for an hourly Carmarthen-Aberystwyth class 158 service; how much does it cost to run a bus (driver, fuel etc.) for a mile? I'm not looking for subsidy figures here; just the cost of running the service (for simplicity, assume that there is no fare on either mode and passengers would be travelling for free; not going to happen but it removes the issue of trying to predict usage and allows me to have a shot at working out what level of bus service could be delivered).

I went to Newquay last Saturday place was very busy and caravan parks nearby. Rest of family drove up on Friday but I got train to Aberystwyth then the T5 bus down the coast. Bus very quite on way there but it was Saturday PM and football was on. There was a bus stop outside QuaryWest where i was staying it had no information whatsoever even though it had an hourly bus going from it. There was none in the park reception or in the caravan . There wasn't even a bus stop sign in Cambrian Square in the village - very poor show.

Sounds like you mean New Quay (the one without a space is in Cornwall; I think (I hope I've not got that the wrong way round). The holiday villiage I think is Quay West, not Quary West. The buses between Aberystwyth/Aberaeron and New Quay could be quite busy a few years ago when I was at University in Aberystwyth.

 

[Llanigraham]

The main tourist resorts along that coast are Aberaeron, New Quay, Mwnt, and Cardigan. Inland, other than Cilgeran Castle and Cenarth Falls there isn't much.
None of them would be served by this line, so the only way a tourist would get to them would be by catching a bus from a small rural station. I can see that being very popular with a family staying at Quay West (NOT)!!

 

[Bald Rick]

I'm not so sure; how many cars equal the emmisions of a 158? I once found a figure of 3 miles per gallon (MPG) of fuel for a Sprinter DMU; not sure how accurate that was but assuming a car does 40mpg then I think the mpg per passenger equals out at about 14 passengers if the alternative is single-occupancy cars. Put two pepole in each car and you'd need 27 passengers for the train to be equal. IF the train was faster than driving, or even with a roughly equal journey time (Aberystwyth-Shrewsbury loads quite nicely with a roughly equal journey time) you might get enough cars off the road to average over 20 passengers per train and thus justify it; if you are only abstracting traffic from the bus the greenhouse gas emmisions equation would look very different.

If the train would be slower than driving; then you are probably right and you would never get 20 cars off the road for each train.

So, running costs of £6m per year for an hourly Carmarthen-Aberystwyth class 158 service; how much does it cost to run a bus (driver, fuel etc.) for a mile? I'm not looking for subsidy figures here; just the cost of running the service (for simplicity, assume that there is no fare on either mode and passengers would be travelling for free; not going to happen but it removes the issue of trying to predict usage and allows me to have a shot at working out what level of bus service could be delivered).

DMU fuel economy will vary widely depending on the duty cycle (starts / stops / top speed / gradient etc). 3mpg is possibly slightly optimisitic, but in the right ball park. But a couple of things to remember:

1) The emissions a train service causes is not just limited to the journey. There are also the emissions when getting the units to / from servicing and stabling locations and when idling. It is total emissions caused by the units, and not just on the trip. Private cars, by their nature don’t run around empty.

2) reasonably modern cars are Euro 6 compliant; the emissions produced by litre of fuel burn are substantially lower than for the Cummins / Perkins engines in a Class 158

3) a reasonably modern car would also be expected to average around 50mpg for the journey from Carmarthen to Aberystwyth. I’d be disappointed with less than 60 in my 8 year old Golf.

4) emissions would only reduce if those who would otherwise have driven swap to the train, ie you can’t count emissions reductions for generated traffic.

Taking the above into account, I’d say you will need the trains to be getting on for half full of passengers that would otherwise have gone by (modern) car, allowing 1.5 people per car.


Bus running costs - complete punt but allowing for a brand new executive coach every 5 years, and staffed with 2 shifts of drivers 364 days a year, and running around 400 miles a day that will be around £300k pa per bus all in including maintenance.

Or more simply, for the price of an hourly rail service, you can buy at least 20 fully crewed and fuelled executive coaches to do with as you please. I should think that would be enough to completely transform public transport connectivity across the whole of SW Wales, and doesn’t need a billion pounds of new railway to do it.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Bus running costs - complete punt but allowing for a brand new executive coach every 5 years, and staffed with 2 shifts of drivers 364 days a year, and running around 400 miles a day that will be around £300k pa per bus all in including maintenance.

Or more simply, for the price of an hourly rail service, you can buy at least 20 fully crewed and fuelled executive coaches to do with as you please. I should think that would be enough to completely transform public transport connectivity across the whole of SW Wales, and doesn’t need a billion pounds of new railway to do it.

I'm curious. I'm assuming you're talking about running costs, excluding the construction costs of building the line? And, assuming an hourly rail service Carmarthen-Aberystwyth would require two DMUs, that's saying that running a 2-car train costs 10 times as much as running a coach. That seems shocking, and I'm wondering why?

Off the top of my head, buying a train will cost a lot more than a coach, but trains are usually built to last a lot longer so that should be amortized over - say - 30 years as opposed to maybe 5 for the coach. Staffing costs are similar (maybe two for the train if - ideally - you have a conductor) but the should be covered by a train can carry more passengers than a coach (OK, maybe on this particular line, it wouldn't?). Both train and coach would require maintenance, but you'd expect the costs of that would be similar. The only other thing that leaves would be that for a train, the track requires maintenance (roads require some maintenance but that cost is absorbed by the Government, although perhaps to some extent appears via fuel duty).

I can't see anything in that list of costs that would account for rail being so much more expensive than buses. What am I missing?

 

[A0wen]

I'm curious. I'm assuming you're talking about running costs, excluding the construction costs of building the line? And, assuming an hourly rail service Carmarthen-Aberystwyth would require two DMUs, that's saying that running a 2-car train costs 10 times as much as running a coach. That seems shocking, and I'm wondering why?

Off the top of my head, buying a train will cost a lot more than a coach, but trains are usually built to last a lot longer so that should be amortized over - say - 30 years as opposed to maybe 5 for the coach. Staffing costs are similar (maybe two for the train if - ideally - you have a conductor) but the should be covered by a train can carry more passengers than a coach (OK, maybe on this particular line, it wouldn't?). Both train and coach would require maintenance, but you'd expect the costs of that would be similar. The only other thing that leaves would be that for a train, the track requires maintenance (roads require some maintenance but that cost is absorbed by the Government, although perhaps to some extent appears via fuel duty).

I can't see anything in that list of costs that would account for rail being so much more expensive than buses. What am I missing?

There are a number of obvious cost differences.

Firstly - salaries. Train drivers are paid far more than bus drivers. According to 'Glassdoor' the average salary for a Stagecoach driver is between £ 20k - £ 25k p.a, whereas Glassdoor has the average salary for a train driver at £ 47k p.a.

Assume you need 10 crews to cover holidays, rest days etc, your salary for the coach option is going be circa £ 250k, the train is going to be more than double that, even if you assume a conductor / ticket inspector's pay is closer to the bus driver than the train driver.

Fuel is the next one - looking around the internet for a Volvo B7 the fuel consumption is reckoned to be circa 9-12 mpg - compare that with the 3 mpg which Bald Rick agreed was a reasonable marker and you've got fuel costs which are 4 times higher for the train over the coach.

Yes a train costs more than a coach - alot more. Taking the Rail Delivery Group's figures from 2015 they reckoned £ 9.3bn of rolling stock meant 3,700 new carriages would be introduced - that's about £ 2.5m / coach or £ 5m for a 2 car unit. Double that for 2 and you've got £ 10m. Compare this to Stagecoach's order in 2015 for 478 new vehicles at a cost of £ 97m - an average of just over £ 200k / vehicle.

That's all before you get onto the maintenance costs which are inevitably far higher for rail than for road - a pot hole doesn't close a road, whereas a broken rail does close a railway line for example. And the cost of providing the road is amortised over far more vehicles - i.e. a coach wouldn't be the sole user of a road whereas the train can only be the sole user of the railway line.

 

[Llanigraham]

And then add in the costs of the signalling staff required, plus the MOM's, possibly a new LOM and probably a roster clerk.
If this was an extension to Machy Box then the signallers are all Grade 6.

Also take into account there would be lots of level crossings to be rebuilt, plus numerous User Worked Crossings, so if run from a central signalling centre would need probably a Gr2 signaller to man that "panel", plus another Level Crossing Manager.

And how many stations are there going to be? Are some of them going to be manned? What about their maintenance? What about all the equipment that is required on those?

 

[Bald Rick]

I'm curious. I'm assuming you're talking about running costs, excluding the construction costs of building the line? And, assuming an hourly rail service Carmarthen-Aberystwyth would require two DMUs, that's saying that running a 2-car train costs 10 times as much as running a coach. That seems shocking, and I'm wondering why?

Off the top of my head, buying a train will cost a lot more than a coach, but trains are usually built to last a lot longer so that should be amortized over - say - 30 years as opposed to maybe 5 for the coach. Staffing costs are similar (maybe two for the train if - ideally - you have a conductor) but the should be covered by a train can carry more passengers than a coach (OK, maybe on this particular line, it wouldn't?). Both train and coach would require maintenance, but you'd expect the costs of that would be similar. The only other thing that leaves would be that for a train, the track requires maintenance (roads require some maintenance but that cost is absorbed by the Government, although perhaps to some extent appears via fuel duty).

I can't see anything in that list of costs that would account for rail being so much more expensive than buses. What am I missing?

A0wen has explained it well.

To add more:

Bus drivers in S Wales will typically earn around £20k for a 39h week, with Sundays and overtime at roughly the same rate. ATW Train drivers are on £48.5k (post July pay award) for a 35h week, with Sundays and overtime at an enhanced rate. Conductors are on less, albeit still rather better than bus drivers, with similar hours as their driving colleagues. Because of the higher salaries, ATW will also pay proportionally more in employers costs (NI, Pension, etc). Thus on a like for like comparison, in this example, staff costs will be 5-6 times higher for providing a train service than a bus.

Allowing for new coaches every 5 years; this is effectively approx £20-30k pa. A 5 year old coach has a decent second hand value. Train leasing costs are commercially confidential but a two car Class 158 (or similar) will probably cost in the region of £200k pa.

Maintenance / servicing costs will be significantly higher for trains, partly because of much more stringent standards, partly because it is more complicated work, and partly because it costs money in fuel and drivers to get them to a depot.

Finally, an Aberystwyth - Camarthen hourly service would need at least 3 units given the speed of the line, and assuming they would stop somewhere en route. Depending on how tight the fleet is for maintenance it could tip over to 4.

None of this includes track access costs, which would pay for the infrastructure maintenance and operation (but not construction).

 

[ChiefPlanner]

[email protected]

First Minister Carwyn Jones AM with Aberystwyth University pro vice-chancellor Rhodri Llwyd Morgan at Old College, Aberystwyth

REOPENING the Aberystwyth to Carmarthen railway line will be “difficult and expensive”, according to First Minister Carwyn Jones.

Mr Jones spoke about the campaign when he was grilled about tourism by members of the Committee for Scrutiny of the First Minister at a meeting at the Old College.

Mr Jones was asked what the Welsh Government’s strategy for tourism and small businesses was and about the possible impact of Brexit on the industry.

Mid and West Wales AM Simon Thomas also raised the possibility of reopening the Aberystwyth to Carmarthen railway line and how that could help tourism.

The First Minister said there would be improvements in the rail service between Aberystwyth and Shrewsbury.

But he warned that finding funds and a route for reopening the railway line between Aberystwyth and Carmarthen would “be difficult and would be expensive”, even though there was support for the feasibility study.

He added that ensuring the TrawsCymru bus service provided a good quality service was a priority currently.

 

[Llanigraham]

As I said earlier, the main tourist destinations in this area, Aberaeron, New Quay (and Key West), Mwnt, Cenarth Falls and Cardigan aren't on the route of the line and would require passengers changing onto a bus service, so how it would help tourism I fail to understand.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

First Minister Carwyn Jones AM with Aberystwyth University pro vice-chancellor Rhodri Llwyd Morgan at Old College, Aberystwyth

**********************************************************************************************************

"He added that ensuring the TrawsCymru bus service provided a good quality service was a priority currently."

Not much reading between the lines needed to understand that final part of the quote.

 

[PeterC]

1) The emissions a train service causes is not just limited to the journey. There are also the emissions when getting the units to / from servicing and stabling locations and when idling. It is total emissions caused by the units, and not just on the trip. Private cars, by their nature don’t run around empty.

Private cars don't "run around empty" because no allowance is made for private drivers travelling to pick up or return after dropping passengers.

 

[A0wen]

Private cars don't "run around empty" because no allowance is made for private drivers travelling to pick up or return after dropping passengers.

Possibly not - but a modern family car making such a journey with just one person in it is *far* less polluting than a 2 car DMU or a 50 seat bus running light to / from their depot.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Not much reading between the lines needed to understand that final part of the quote.

Penny has finally dropped perhaps , "sheep may safely graze" (to quote the hymn) , twixt Tregaron and Trawsgoed....

 

[snowball]

Penny has finally dropped perhaps , "sheep may safely graze" (to quote the hymn) , twixt Tregaron and Trawsgoed....

It isn't actually a hymn. It's a celebration of hunting.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheep_may_safely_graze

Full words at

http://www.bach-cantatas.com/Texts/BWV208-Eng3.htm

The safe grazing words are in verse 9.

 

[D1009]

Penny has finally dropped perhaps , "sheep may safely graze" (to quote the hymn) , twixt Tregaron and Trawsgoed....

Pedant note: It's not a hymn, it's a very relaxing piece of orchestral music by JS Bach which as a child I lerarned to play very badly on the piano. However I take your point, the sheep won't be disturbed by anything other than the traffic on the A485.

EDIT Just been beaten to it.

 

[snowball]

Bach wrote lots of religious cantatas (I think his job required him to write one a week) but this one is a secular one.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

It isn't actually a hymn. It's a celebration of hunting.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheep_may_safely_graze

Full words at

http://www.bach-cantatas.com/Texts/BWV208-Eng3.htm

The safe grazing words are in verse 9.

Oh all right then .....

 

[Bald Rick]

[email protected]

First Minister Carwyn Jones AM with Aberystwyth University pro vice-chancellor Rhodri Llwyd Morgan at Old College, Aberystwyth

REOPENING the Aberystwyth to Carmarthen railway line will be “difficult and expensive”, according to First Minister Carwyn Jones.

Mr Jones spoke about the campaign when he was grilled about tourism by members of the Committee for Scrutiny of the First Minister at a meeting at the Old College.

Mr Jones was asked what the Welsh Government’s strategy for tourism and small businesses was and about the possible impact of Brexit on the industry.

Mid and West Wales AM Simon Thomas also raised the possibility of reopening the Aberystwyth to Carmarthen railway line and how that could help tourism.

The First Minister said there would be improvements in the rail service between Aberystwyth and Shrewsbury.

But he warned that finding funds and a route for reopening the railway line between Aberystwyth and Carmarthen would “be difficult and would be expensive”, even though there was support for the feasibility study.

He added that ensuring the TrawsCymru bus service provided a good quality service was a priority currently.

Looks like we’re all agreed then. Perhaps this thread should be closed, and not reopened!

(As an aside, I do wonder how the Welsh Govt will explain why it wasted £300k on a study to demonstrate an answer that was patently obvious to anyone with a basic understanding of railway economics. That could have given everyone who pays for the bus on that route a hefty discount off the fare for a year).

 

[krus_aragon]

Looks like we’re all agreed then. Perhaps this thread should be closed, and not reopened!

I'm sure there will be a feasibility study to examine the case for reopening this thread in due course.

 

[The Ham]

I'm sure there will be a feasibility study to examine the case for reopening this thread in due course.

Along with a thread discussing the benefits of reopening the thread.

 

[yoyothehobo]

Along with a thread discussing the benefits of reopening the thread.

You forgot about the petition to open the thread discussing the benefits of the thread discussing the feasibility study.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Should we be thinking about booking a nice place for a forum meal in the area covered by this thread on 2nd December to celebrate the 5th birthday of the thread?

 

[furnessvale]

Should we be thinking about booking a nice place for a forum meal in the area covered by this thread on 2nd December to celebrate the 5th birthday of the thread?

Only if I can get there by train!

 

[yoyothehobo]

Turns out you can only close a thread by an act of parliament, so this thread will be kept open with a single post per week for the next 27 years.

I wonder if anyone has a list of all the proposed line reopening threads on this forum. Mostly for if anyone suggests them, there is a link to the 1,000 post discussion of the entire route.

 

[squizzler]

I forgot that we on this forum are supposed to celebrate the news that a new railway is not to be built!

Seriously, the various railway developments seems to follow a pattern like this.

1. The government plays along with it and decides a report will kick the proposal into the long grass and isolate them from any decision not to proceed.
2. A report is written that rejects the idea and it seems to be buried.
3. Then a few years later the idea emerges with unstoppable momentum.

This is the pattern that the current railway electrification programme, High Speed Rail and the Borders railway have all followed. Possibly here too?