Justin Smith
Member
I've said all along there will be no "second wave" (as defined by as spike in the death rate more or less as high as the first) in any similar country to the UK with a death rate above (pref well above) 500 per million. Note I am not saying there will not be bumps and dips in the graph curves. Anyway, nothing has happened so far to make me change my mind. I'm not that interested in the infection rate, only the death rate, and one does not necessarily lead to the other, not in a European country anyway. The link between the infection rate and the death rate appears to be loosening, I'm not sure why, it may be that our hospitals are getting better at treating it, but one has to wonder, if the death rate drops to say 1 in 400 or 500 why are we persisting with these massively damaging measures to our society and economy ?
Note for the timings on the graphs, if someone is going to die from Covid the average length of time is about 18 days and here are the infection rates and death rates for France to the 17th August (Spain follows a similar pattern) :
Could one of these people who think there will be a second wave please explain to me why, as our lockdown was eased off (unofficially at first - from only a few weeks into it - but then officially) our death rate has not only failed to go up, but has actually fell, and has continued to fall despite even the pubs being reopened ! :
Note for the timings on the graphs, if someone is going to die from Covid the average length of time is about 18 days and here are the infection rates and death rates for France to the 17th August (Spain follows a similar pattern) :
Could one of these people who think there will be a second wave please explain to me why, as our lockdown was eased off (unofficially at first - from only a few weeks into it - but then officially) our death rate has not only failed to go up, but has actually fell, and has continued to fall despite even the pubs being reopened ! :
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