7. We were told by TfL that they were worried about capacity at Euston to handle and disperse the passenger flows generated by the combination of HS2 and existing routes. They told us that Crossrail 2 would need to be in operation before the opening of HS2 to handle demand. We have also received representations about the disruptive impact of the Euston HS2 works on the existing train service into Euston. Can you comment on these issues?
HS2 would increase the numbers of national rail passengers using both the mainline and Underground stations at Euston. As well as rebuilding the mainline station improvements to the Underground station would also be made, including a new direct link to Euston Square. These works would be expected to deal with crowding issues in the Underground station.
In terms of crowding on the underground trains, our analysis indicates that the extra number of Underground passengers at Euston due to HS2 would be small compared with the overall numbers already using the Underground. Whilst high quality public transport access and dispersal at all HS2 stations would undoubtedly be desirable to maximize the benefits of the new line, HS2 Ltd is not in a position to comment on the value for money of particular schemes.
Even without HS2, the number of national rail passengers arriving or departing Euston will grow by 100% by 2043 resulting in around 8,700 additional passengers using the Underground station during the morning peak. The average loading of all London Underground services travelling through Euston Underground in the 3 hour AM peak period is currently 138% and is expected to increase to 185% in 2043 without HS2. Both the Northern and Victoria lines which stop at Euston are likely to be particularly heavily crowded.
By 2043, HS2 Ltd estimates some 5,500 additional rail passengers would use Euston Underground Station in the morning peak as result of HS2 Phase 1 but this is equivalent to an increase in the total number of passengers travelling on London Underground services passing through Euston of just 2%. As a result of HS2 Phase 1 we estimate only a small additional increase in crowding on LUL services at Euston from 185% to 191%.
Accordingly, any requirement for additional underground capacity would be predominantly triggered by general growth, not the effect of HS2. We believe that the same conclusion holds, in principle, for the wider Y network which would further increase demand at Euston but may also limit demand growth at Kings Cross St Pancras as passengers transfer to high speed services from the ECML and MML. We have not, however, analysed these numbers in equivalent detail, as we have yet to finish our work on developing the route and business case for links to Manchester and Leeds. HS2 Ltd will be working with TfL on the impacts at Euston as the Manchester and Leeds work is finalised, and is ready to provide any necessary input to TfLs wider ongoing strategy for modernising and improving Underground services should a decision be taken to proceed with HS2.
