Disruption on HS1 due to signalling problems caused by flooding in the Thames Tunnel.

[TFN]

Eurostar doesn’t help themselves at all when there’s disruption. News that both tunnels were blocked was announced by southeastern between 4AM and 5AM.

Eurostar didn’t announce it until 6AM on their website, when the first scheduled departure from London was 0631. The earlier they get the news out to their customers the easier it is no?

 

[NotATrainspott]

Getting people to cancel is cynical - they are likely to travel using another carrier at their own expense and all of the costs of them not performing are then avoided.

Judging by their 2022 reports, using EBITA / Turnover Eurostar runs a 21% profit margin. Yet when something like this happens they aren't liable for the sort of airline compensation that would apply for the same London to Paris journey. All the costs of these situations are being dumped on others travellers via the insurance system.

Any money or services you get during airline disruption is also paid for through insurance. The airlines would charge less for tickets if compensation etc wasn't required. It might not be explicitly marked as insurance but that's just because most airlines are large enough that they can self-insure. Some actuarian working for an airline has done the sums and worked out that essentially all disruption claims will be small enough that they don't need to pay Allianz or Prudential to cover the possibility. If you started up your own airline with just one plane and not a lot of cash in the bank you might choose differently, because those disruption claims could be quite a bit more than you can cover.

There's no reason why an airline couldn't offer a slightly higher ticket price that would offer this sort of cover. Indeed, it's what they do today where tickets that can be easily refunded or changed will cost more than inflexible tickets that can't be changed. Someone wanting to change their plans or cancel their tickets (in a situation where the airline is unlikely to be able to resell their ticket to someone else) is just an insurance claim like any other.

The popularity of super low cost and inflexible tickets suggests that most passengers, if given the choice, do actually prefer to take the risk if it means being able to do that travel at all. But, obviously, you then need to have a plan in case it does. The nature of air travel, and especially low-cost airline travel, makes those alternate plans a lot harder. People are generally a bit more trapped when they're at an airport. If everything were hub and spoke there'd be a bit more in-built flexibility but low-cost carriers are all about finding that there are enough people to fill a 737 return flight once a week from one random regional airport to another 3 hours away. And, of course, those low-cost fares mean any and all slack in the system gets wiped out so there's unlikely to be any spare seats at all, so the only way of getting people home is to find another plane. There are dry and wet leasing companies who would offer a 737 with or without crew at a few hours' notice for a replacement charter flight but the cost per passenger would be eye-watering compared to the £19.99 they probably paid for their original ticket.

So, avoiding the real risk of passenger mutiny at an airport might not be a bad idea for the airlines even if they could maybe eke out a bit more profit with it. I recall the problems when Monarch and Thomas Cook went bust and the CAA had to get everyone home. In principle, only those on ATOL-protected package holidays were actually entitled to this help. But, given the impossibility of getting a couple of British embassy/consulate staff to tell thousands of angry Brits in a check-in queue that they weren't actually flying home unless they cough up possibly hundreds for a new ticket, it made more sense just to treat everyone the same. The issue then is that people will expect that outcome in future, so they won't pay extra for the ATOL protection of a package holiday. Which, in turn, means that we probably need to just change the way we insure any British people travelling abroad for their holidays so that everyone pays their fair share.

Eurostar seems a fair bit closer to the hub and spoke model where self insurance would work. It's not like there's any real shortage of transport options from London to Brussels and Paris. It might be inconvenient, yes, but being stuck in the centre of a world city is hardly like being stuck at 2am at a regional airport where all the staff just want to go home and there's not even an hotel or public bus running nearby. If there were significant demand for higher fares with built-in insurance then Eurostar could just offer them.

 

[ScotGG]

Speculative Discussion Alert!

They could try and turn things at Ebbsfleet but no onward connections, apart from a (Likely) 1 hour last minute replacement bus to Stratford, however ULEZ would cause a problem supplying many high capacity frequent buses. They could try and, from there, try and bus people the 5 mins to Northfleet and let them make their way from there, however this would probably cause severe overcrowding unless they could source extra trains and, most unlikely, drivers to run a non-stop service to either London Bridge, Cannon St, Charing Cross or Blackfriars with available paths.

Paths to central London from Northfleet should be possible given the cut backs on various lines since 2022. There's also no Victoria trains on the Bexleyheath line so those paths could be used?

 

[Failed Unit]

Paths to central London from Northfleet should be possible given the cut backs on various lines since 2022. There's also no Victoria trains on the Bexleyheath line so those paths could be used?

It is getting to between the stations that is a problem here, when the bus link existed, it was frequently snarled up in Bluewater traffic.

 

[QueensCurve]

For the first point, I am told both tunnels are flooded so even if they could run bi-directionally, that's a non-starter now.

For the second point, I thought Fawkham had been severed at one end? It's certainly out of use. I'm not sure there's any realistic way round to access St Pancras either?

The main thing is, I think, once this is sorted to look at the resilience of the Thames Tunnels - with a view to avoiding having both out of action at the same time. For example are there cross passage doors fitted and if not why not? Is it the same pipe leaking into both tunnels - if so, can it be relocated to avoid the risk in future?

Segregation of the tunnels so that flooding of one does not lead to flooding of the other should have been a design objective. It should now be modification objective to achieve resilience. While thinking of this, I recall that the Channel tunnel itself was designed with to independent grid connections at both ends. My understanding is that it is now solely fed from the French end. A failure waiting to happen.

Severing the route to Waterloo always looked short sighted to me. Yes, I understand that Eurostar didn't want the costs of operating two termini and that they welcomed the oppertunity to obviate DC compatibility.

It also occurs to me that it might not beyond the wit and intelligence of Eurostar to charter a flight or flights. It might be difficult at short notice at this time of the year, but their customers are relying on the service for their New Year plans.

 

[Benjwri]

Segregation of the tunnels so that flooding of one does not lead to flooding of the other should have been a design objective. It should now be modification objective to achieve resilience.

The tunnels are segregated to the maximum extent while still meeting evacuation requirement. If the other tunnel has flooded that means the water is extremely high and has reached the levels of the evacuation corridors, or that whatever fault caused the issue has occurred in the other tunnel. Without knowing what caused the issue, and whose responsibility maintenance was, I don’t think it’s appropriate to start criticising maintenance and design regimes.

 

[renegademaster]

The easiest way if Eurostar was required to provide alternative provision would be to charter a few planes to run a city-Paris shuttle for Eurostar passengers

 

[Man of Kent]

I'm still baffled why Bi-Directional working isn't being used.

Bi-Di working was in use yesterday between Ebbsfleet and Wennington, but only achievable by reducing Southeastern services to 1 per hour in each direction. Delays of around 15 minutes were being picked up, though variable as typically three trains were flighted in each direction.

Indeed, it was very imaginatively used for one down Javelin service which was sandwiched between a pair of Eurostars. After calling at Ebbsfleet, it was sent along the up line to Lenham Heath loops, while the second outbound Eurostar "overtook" it on the down line.

The track doesn’t even exist at Fawkham Junction any more, so that’s a no-go.

Well it was there when I last went past last month, as it is on Traksy and OpenTrainTimes, whcih both show the down line as "No Go" at the Springhead end and "no AC" at the Fawkham Junction end.

 

[Llanigraham]

The easiest way if Eurostar was required to provide alternative provision would be to charter a few planes to run a city-Paris shuttle for Eurostar passengers

Easy to say it on here, but I suspect the reality is VERY different.

1/ Cost; it would be ridiculously expensive.
2/ Are there planes and crews available?
3/ Are there flight paths available?
4/ Can the airports at either end cope with the extra flights?

 

[Benjwri]

Being reported the failure was of a ‘fire control system’, source.

The flooding in a Kent tunnel which has led to the cancellation of all Eurostar services has been caused by a “fire control system”, a water company said.
In a statement, Thames Water said: “We have been informed of an incident involving a pipe flooding the Eurostar tunnel. We believe the incident is in regard to a fire control system and not a Thames Water pipe/asset, however we have a technician on the way to offer support to control the flow of water.

 

[Jan Mayen]

Just noticed this on the National Rail Website:

• Eurostar customers that have a confirmed booking with P&O between Dover and Calais, may travel on our trains to and from Dover.

Incident: EbbsfleetInternational | National Rail

No Southeastern service to / from London St Pancras International until the end of the day. Find details of all current incidents on National Rail Enquiries.

www.nationalrail.co.uk

 

[HullRailMan]

The easiest way if Eurostar was required to provide alternative provision would be to charter a few planes to run a city-Paris shuttle for Eurostar passengers

This really doesn’t meet any definition of an easy solution. For a start, you’d need 5 B737/A320 in the max configuration to shift every train load of Eurostar passengers. That sort of aircraft capacity isn’t available at such short notice.

 

[Horizon22]

Bi-Di working was in use yesterday between Ebbsfleet and Wennington, but only achievable by reducing Southeastern services to 1 per hour in each direction. Delays of around 15 minutes were being picked up, though variable as typically three trains were flighted in each direction.

Indeed, it was very imaginatively used for one down Javelin service which was sandwiched between a pair of Eurostars. After calling at Ebbsfleet, it was sent along the up line to Lenham Heath loops, while the second outbound Eurostar "overtook" it on the down line.


Well it was there when I last went past last month, as it is on Traksy and OpenTrainTimes, whcih both show the down line as "No Go" at the Springhead end and "no AC" at the Fawkham Junction end.

Pretty certain it’s severed to the Chatham Main Line.

 

[island]

Speculative Discussion Alert!

They could try and turn things at Ebbsfleet but no onward connections, apart from a (Likely) 1 hour last minute replacement bus to Stratford, however ULEZ would cause a problem supplying many high capacity frequent buses

ULEZ doesn't cause any problems whatsoever, if your vehicle is non-compliant you just need to pay a fee.

A resilient operation would terminate international trains at Ashford and run the hourly Javelin services from Dover and Margate fast to Cannon Street (would say Victoria or Waterloo international but engineering works) via the Gravesend West Branch or Tonbridge depending on the obstruction giving a half hourly service to London

The infrastructure is there, the Javelins are the same TOC, by cancelling the Margate - London via Gravesend Javelins you free up drivers and stock and with recent service cuts eg Victoria stoppers via Herne Hill cut to half hourly instead of every 15 minutes, there is capacity.

Funny to think that BR routinely ran boat trains at short notice via variable routes that way as recently as the 1980s.

Easy to get the crayons out isn't it. Ashford has 2 international platforms, as they're an island they can only be used both for departures or both for arrivals at any given point in time, as compared to 6 platforms in St Pancras. You end up with a fraction of the service and everything's now running full to bursting, can you get 1800 passengers (2 374s) in and out in the infrastructure there? No not really.

Pretty certain it’s severed to the Chatham Main Line.

It is. As is the connection from Denmark Hill to Waterloo platforms 21-24, which one of the other comments wanted to use.

 

[Horizon22]

It is. As is the connection from Denmark Hill to Waterloo platforms 21-24, which one of the other comments wanted to use.

Not to mention that would cause a reduction in SWR services and there’s absolutely zero international processing!

 

[Meglos]

Easy to say it on here, but I suspect the reality is VERY different.

1/ Cost; it would be ridiculously expensive.
2/ Are there planes and crews available?
3/ Are there flight paths available?
4/ Can the airports at either end cope with the extra flights?

Having worked in or around the Aviation Industry for 40 years......

1) London City airport is mandated closed from Midday Saturday to Midday Sunday. This was required to get planning permission to build the airport.
2) The largest aircraft allowed (Embraer 195E2) in London City has a maximum of 124 seats. So you would need between 5 and 6 of these aircraft to replace every train
3) Airports such as Gatwick/Heathrow/Luton & Stansted in London, Charles De Gaulle & Orly in Paris, Schiphol in Amsterdam and National in Brussels are all slot restricted and generally operate at close to full capacity, with almost no extra slots available.
4) If you could find the aircraft, then flights from Cambridge or Southend to Rotterdam/Charleroi/Beauvais/Liile would potentially be possible, as long as all these airports had the staff available.
5) I could source an A320 (150 seats) at 4 hours, and another within 12 hours, but getting all the aircraft needed would take months of planning. Most availabl aircraft will be in storage in either Spain or the Baltic States where most of the ACMI (Aircraft, Crew, Maintenance & Insurance) carriers are located. For example planning potential aircraft capacity for the Champions League final in Wembley in June actually started earlier this year, and obviously we have no idea who the finalists will be!
6) For a single 150-200 seat aircraft you will need 2 pilots, 4 cabin crew, 1 dispatcher, 3 baggage handlers, 2 checkin agents, and 2 gate agents. Obviously you can re-use the ground crews on subsequent departures, but you also need the same numbers at the other end, plus aircraft cleaners.
7) If you sourced an aircraft for a 10AM flight, then it wouldn't be available for the next flight until 1:30PM. Think 30 minutes boarding, 45 minutes flying to Paris, 20 minutes deboarding, 10 minutes cleaning, 30 minutes boarding, 45 minutes flying back to the UK, 20 minutes deboarding and 10 minutes cleaning. An hours turn round is reasonable for a smaller aircraft, but it gets longer when you use bigger aircraft.
8) For one round trip UK to France at short notice, you wouldn't get change out of $30000.

 

[swt_passenger]

It is. As is the connection from Denmark Hill to Waterloo platforms 21-24, which one of the other comments wanted to use.

That’s the connection that’s been used very recently for 707 transfers. Doesn’t really seem ’severed’ after all, although I agree Waterloo will never see Eurostar again for all the other reasons…

 

[fandroid]

Although NRE is posting a notice that all Eurostar trains are suspended, their departures board shows some as "delayed" and at least one "on time". Meanwhile the Eurostar site shows every individual service cancelled today

 

[dastocks]

Easy to say it on here, but I suspect the reality is VERY different.

1/ Cost; it would be ridiculously expensive.
2/ Are there planes and crews available?
3/ Are there flight paths available?
4/ Can the airports at either end cope with the extra flights?

When Gatwick was closed due to the drones in 2018 BA sent at least one 777 to Schiphol (probably Gatwick based but diverted to Heathrow) in order to mop-up stranded passengers. I booked myself onto the then Eurostar service in order to get home.

 

[21C101]

That to be honest is why if it was possible Ashford would probably be better, at least it has more existing services, but as we have seen in the past, they would very quickly become overwhelmed (so would that be a good thing).

The international service is one an hour to Paris and one an hour to Brussels. It is not exactly intensive. Yes Ashford is far from ideal and would not be a great deal of fun but if well organised quite do able and a damn sight better than nothing at all, even if some cancellations are needed.

Considering how the TOCs are struggling to run the timetable, I can’t see how SouthEastern would be able to add extra London - Ashford services on the classic lines.

That would be the classic boat train lines that still have all the infrastructure that was added to ensure Eurostar could run that way?

Even if Fawkham is unusable (which is a disgrace), a Javelin service to London via the Boat Train Routes is not a capacity issue (especially with all the trains cut out of the timetable post covid (eg stopping trains via Herne Hill and Dulwich cut from every 15 minutes to every 30 minutes).

That leaves Javelins and Crew. Cancel Javelin services from Margate to London via Gravesend and use all the stock and crew to run Hourly from Dover and Margate to Victoria via Tonbridge or Maidstone (or Cannon St if a weekend and Victoria has engineering works).

If a proper contingency plan was made it could then be rolled out rapidly. Frankly, if the Government don't have the regulatory power to do it as not part of the national rail network, then they can pass an Act of Parliament to specifically mandate such contingencies on what is cardinal critical national infrastructure.

 

[Benjwri]

Crew. Cancel Javelin services from Margate to London via Gravesend and use all the stock and crew to run Hourly from Dover and Margate to Victoria via Tonbridge or Maidstone (or Cannon St if a weekend and Victoria has engineering works).

How many of the crew on the cancelled Javelins would have the route knowledge to divert to Cannon Street/Victoria? You’d need a fair few repeating route learning trips, which for such a long route diverting all the way to Victoria is very costly, especially if you want multiple routes into London.

what is cardinal critical national infrastructure.

I think your definition of ‘critical national infrastructure’ differs a fair bit from the government’s. Trains full of people heading away for NYE being delayed by a day is going to be fairly low on the list, even during the week though it it’s not ‘critical’ to the country, unless the closure stretches into multiple days or weeks, when alternative working might be considered.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

As usual, we forget the similar numbers of cancellations and stranded passengers on inbound services.

 

[grinderx]

your definition of ‘critical national infrastructure’ differs a fair bit from the government’s. Trains full of people heading away for NYE being delayed by a day is going to be fairly low on the list, even during the week though it it’s not ‘critical’ to the country, unless the closure stretches into multiple days or weeks, when alternative working might be considered.

A bit of a simplification there. You are assuming that everybody is outbound, is on holiday and is fit and healthy. I often wonder if people understand what's it's like with small kids in a foreign country with no plan. We're not stupid but do expect a certain level of responsibility from the carrier.

eurostar tickets have CIV status. Is there an obligation on eurostar due to this? I know SNCF seem to have pulled HOTNAT obligations as well.

Of course not suggesting eurostar actually will meet their obligations. AFAIK the ORR had to intervene over Covid when eurostar cancelled trains and tried to offer vouchers instead of refunds.

I think the lesson here is don't trust eurostar or indeed the infrastructure when RENFE turn up in a few years. There is just too much evidence that they are not competant. We've spent about 500 quid so far dealing with the consequences, several days of stress. There's believable reporting that some people have spent ten times that. Not worth it...

Really would be a good idea to improve the infrastructure though. ATM it comes across like a badly run fairground ride.

I suppose we'll get home at some point.

 

[Horizon22]

Although NRE is posting a notice that all Eurostar trains are suspended, their departures board shows some as "delayed" and at least one "on time". Meanwhile the Eurostar site shows every individual service cancelled today

They probably need physically cancelling by an information controller/operator.

 

[Rail Ranger]

Of course class 374 Eurostar trains can't divert off HS1 because they were built to the Continental loading gauge.

 

[yorksrob]

The easiest thing would be to strengthen services on the classic lines - eight to twelve carriages where possible.

 

[sor]

I think your definition of ‘critical national infrastructure’ differs a fair bit from the government’s. Trains full of people heading away for NYE being delayed by a day is going to be fairly low on the list, even during the week though it it’s not ‘critical’ to the country, unless the closure stretches into multiple days or weeks, when alternative working might be considered.

bear in mind that there may be tourists going home and disruption is far more of an issue for them. I got caught in a sudden strike earlier this year across the German rail network. Overall, not a big deal to find a hotel for one night extra and spend another day in Berlin - but for others it might have been.

 

[Samzino]

Why would it have been a key help in a situation like this? It's the wrong side of the affected tunnel!

You could terminate Eurostar trains at Stratford which has much better transport connections than Ashford or Ebbsfleet for one.

Also temple mills isn’t quite far either. Although I doubt a shunt could be done tbh into Stratford international from there.

 

[AndrewE]

The easiest thing would be to strengthen services on the classic lines - eight to twelve carriages where possible.

(where to? and what modes of transport /services forward? I too would like to have seen an emergency plan using Ashford or somewhere as the interchange between E* shuttles and domestic services. That seems like a pretty good plan B to me.)

But that is far too sensible and obvious, I don't doubt that there will be people along soon with a few dozen reasons why it is absolutely impossible on today's railway... to which I would say "Change it then!"

For starters I will guess: No crews for attaching extra units
no franchise requirement to run any more or longer trains in an emergency
reluctance to incur extra unit-mile costs to be paid to the ROSCO
No staff goodwill to allow the management to put in an emergency timetable with notional/improvised diagrams anyway...

 

[yorksrob]

(where to? and what modes of transport /services forward? I too would like to have seen an emergency plan using Ashford or somewhere as the interchange between E* shuttles and domestic services. That seems like a pretty good plan B to me.)

But that is far too sensible and obvious, I don't doubt that there will be people along soon with a few dozen reasons why it is absolutely impossible on today's railway... to which I would say "Change it then!"

For starters I will guess: No crews for attaching extra units
no franchise requirement to run any more or longer trains in an emergency
reluctance to incur extra unit-mile costs to be paid to the ROSCO
No staff goodwill to allow the management to put in an emergency timetable with notional/improvised diagrams anyway...

Just the main lines from Charing Cross etc to the coast. Run them as they would peak services (in length any way).