Disruption to services - Storm Dudley & Storm Eunice

[Horizon22]

Do we know which lines are actually blocked yet?

Where? There's trees down blocking quite a few lines around the country already.

 

[D6130]

Currently calm and dry here in Hebden Bridge, with partially blue skies. There were a few gusts of wind with light showers a couple of hours ago. Calder Valley line running a full service, but with delays of 10-15 minutes....presumably due to the ESR.

 

[800001]

Do we know which lines are actually blocked yet?

Multiple trees down affecting South Westerns Railways out of Waterloo.

 

[Peterthegreat]

In honesty, Northern have done a great job throughout all previous storms of running the full service as long as possible. Today is different, due to the weather forecast at the time of putting the timetable into play (yesterday afternoon). The primary reason for the service withdrawals is an expect blanket ESR - slower trains means longer journeys, that driver and guard who were going Leeds to Nottingham (usually a 4 hour round trip), will now be gone closer to 7/8 hours. This means the second part of the crew diagram will be uncovered, leaving units stranded in the wrong places and generally causing major disruption that can snowball quite quickly.

A strategic thinning of the timetable is a reasonably sensible and forward thinking approach, allowing service to continue with some resilience, rather than mass carnage that was entirely predictable (and no - not in terms of weather, in terms of the blanket ESR - although this approach does leave scope for service recovery when there is a line block etc).

Just to add - this is the approach taken by many other operators too - see Thameslink/Avanti, to name a few.



You probably haven't seen my messages in these storm threads previously - but I entirely sympathise with you; I'm whole heartedly in support of running as much service as is possible/sensible. I would, however, hope my point stands, that you would sympathise with disrupted services today?

For once I agree with Northern's actions. They have even strengthened to Leeds to Sheffield local services via both Barnsley and Moorthorpe to 4 coaches. My criticism is in the communication. Nowhere on the Northern Website does it say the Lincoln and Nottingham trains are not running through to Leeds. You only find out by looking at the online systems and finding out the trains are not there.

 

[Wivenswold]

The main problem for the M62 Corridor north will be snow according to the Met Office, so each area is dealing with different issues. Some areas will escape serious issues but the recommendation to stay home seems to be justified. Looks like Heathrow is closed. Brighton sea front webcam is a concern, waves well up the beach already and high tide is in 4 hours.

 

[dk1]

Thankfully I’m off today but colleagues are telling me that their London bound trains are well loaded. Plenty with suitcases & a large group on another celebrating complete with birthday balloons.

 

[jfollows]

Guardian now reporting that the BBC is reporting "A 110mph wind" at the Needles lighthouse (https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...es-millions-to-stay-indoors-live-news-updates).

 

[Peterthegreat]

Multiple trees down affecting South Westerns Railways out of Waterloo.

Portsmouth direct appears to be blocked in multiple places. The Epsom area also seems to be suffering.

 

[deltic]

Still bright and sunny at London Bridge - trains seem very empty

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Not in my experience. I once had to spend the night on a train at Munich because there were high winds around Hamburg and the Munich-Hamburg sleeper was not allowed to depart.

Who was the expert saying "a few gusts" - yes , quite. (he seems to have gone quiet)


I understand the Netherlands rail system shuts down from 1400.

 

[DelW]

Portsmouth direct appears to be blocked in multiple places. The Epsom area also seems to be suffering.

The Direct is closed between Guildford and Petersfield all this week for engineering work (first stage of resignalling project). Replacement buses seem to be running currently (based on RTT).

It's windy in the area at present but nothing exceptional, however forecast highest speeds are in an hour or two's time.

 

[Peterthegreat]

Who was the expert saying "a few gusts" - yes , quite. (he seems to have gone quiet)


I understand the Netherlands rail system shuts down from 1400.

And the Belgian system north and west of Brussels.

 

[Techniquest]

Don't risk yourself nipping the shop @Techniquest, do it sooner rather than later... 9am is your "rough patch"!

Thanks for the concern, most appreciated I got out a little after 8am in the end, back in around 40 minutes later. It did start picking up a little after 9am, so much so I took the wheelie bins to the back of the house where they would be protected from the wind (my residence faces south/south-west out the front) before a coffee got made.

Certainly picked up a fair bit since around 1020 here, the Met Office app was still suggesting when I looked the peak of it for Hereford is around 12pm. Obviously it's changing quite a bit.

Apparently in Northwich earlier the weather was pretty decent, with no real disruption of any sort. Although I was also told that the schools in Cheshire changed their minds and were closing after all. Arriva North West were running double-decker buses, which seems like they're inviting nature to give them grief!

As for the TfL thing, I rarely use their services but I still get their emails. I don't mind, it's not an issue for me and I look at it as a minor way to help keep up to date with what's going on down that way. Today's one popped up, soon enough deleted of course as I'm not planning to be anywhere near London for about a month.

Hopefully all of you out there, for whatever reason, will be fine

 

[Peterthegreat]

The Direct is closed between Guildford and Petersfield all this week for engineering work (first stage of resignalling project). Replacement buses seem to be running currently (based on RTT).

It's windy in the area at present but nothing exceptional, however forecast highest speeds are in an hour or two's time.

Thanks for clarifying.

 

[brad465]

Guardian now reporting that the BBC is reporting "A 110mph wind" at the Needles lighthouse (https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...es-millions-to-stay-indoors-live-news-updates).
View attachment 110397

Another gust just over 5mph faster and its beaten 1987.

 

[Djgr]

Hmm. Greetings from Staffordshire, where the storm has been renamed Storm Teacup.

Literally, absolutely nothing so far.

 

[Islineclear3_1]

You probably haven't seen my messages in these storm threads previously - but I entirely sympathise with you; I'm whole heartedly in support of running as much service as is possible/sensible. I would, however, hope my point stands, that you would sympathise with disrupted services today?

Of course I would. I have planned for massive disruption and this is why I drove to work today.

But I was replying to the OP about having a choice to commute to work. I work on the front line in a busy London hospital and patients rely on me turning up to work. I can't choose to do my job at home

 

[Bald Rick]

Maybe the centre of the low is passing over, which usually has lighter winds than the surrounding areas, in the same way that the eye of a hurricane is the calmest area, while the eyewall is the area with the strongest winds.

the centre of the storm (it does not have an ‘eye’) is currently just east of Arbroath.

the strongest winds are on the southern flank, which is almost exactly where predicted at present - the SW peninsular and South Wales.

Its not too bad here in Hertfordshire at present - although a couple of planes at Luton have just gone around on trying to land, indeed one has had two goes now…

 

[Wivenswold]

Hmm. Greetings from Staffordshire, where the storm has been renamed Storm Teacup.

Literally, absolutely nothing so far.

You may get lucky, but there's a possibility of a sting in the tail once the storm has passed and if it happens you will know about it.

 

[jfollows]

We're supposed to have 60mph gusts in Wilmslow at the moment however the wind speed is closer to 6mph currently, however I don't doubt that it'll change before too long, it's just that the indicated precision of hourly forecasts isn't to be believed.
EDIT 12mph and 14mph sustained wind speeds reported locally

 

[Horizon22]

Portsmouth direct appears to be blocked in multiple places. The Epsom area also seems to be suffering.

Portsmouth Harbour station is closed also

In other news across the South West, there's a power outage near Hungerford, part of the station roof fell off at Taunton and is blocking some of the lines and there's fallen trees at Truro, Cambourne and Yeovil Pen Mill to name just a few issues.

 

[bramling]

For the record, as of now GTR’s GN side is holding up, albeit with some late running.

Peterborough-Stevenage 2tph seems to be all 700/1

Cambridge-King’s Cross stopping 1tph 700/0

Cambridge-King’s Cross semi-fast 1tph seems to be 2x387.

It’s rather remiss, in my view, that they have 24 carriages worth of potential capacity per hour arriving at Stevenage, but only 16 per hour into London (plus the Hertford line, of course). Hope passenger numbers are well down.

 

[75A]

You may get lucky, but there's a possibility of a sting in the tail once the storm has passed and if it happens you will know about it.

Nor here, it was windier earlier in the week.

 

[philjo]

Now getting strong gusts in North Herts. A large section has split from the tree in the verge nearby onto next door’s drive and across the pavement. That tree has had some fungus showing last year.

 

[Wivenswold]

There is definitely scope for this to be a total non-event in the line between the M62 and the snow and the Midlands with the wind. I hope it is a non-event for some of us.
Winners and losers aplenty today.

 

[al78]

In my youth, in the 1960s-70s, we lived on the seafront in The Wirral. Hardly a winter went by without some major smasher storm or two. Sometimes they were particularly violent, whole roofs removed from the houses along the road. Benches across the road were wooden seats clipped to two very substantial concrete blocks underneath, which required a lorry-mounted crane to move them. These, a couple of times, were rolled by the weather into the middle of the road. Hardly any news coverage though. That seems to be what has changed.

All the events of trains being blown off the line seemed to happen long ago. Owencarrow in Ireland, blown over the viaduct, 1920s I think. And of course the Tay Bridge.

The Tay bridge disaster was as much caused by poor engineering as the wind. It ruined the engineer (Bouch) responsible for it.

 

[Dave W]

the centre of the storm (it does not have an ‘eye’) is currently just east of Arbroath.

the strongest winds are on the southern flank, which is almost exactly where predicted at present - the SW peninsular and South Wales.

Its not too bad here in Hertfordshire at present - although a couple of planes at Luton have just gone around on trying to land, indeed one has had two goes now…

I've just had a quick look at Flightradar and BA583 Venice-Heathrow was sat circling over south London but has now started to head north - presumably being diverted? (wrong mode of transport, I know...)

 

[Graham H]

Hmm. Greetings from Staffordshire, where the storm has been renamed Storm Teacup.

Literally, absolutely nothing so far.

Lucky you, blowing well on the South Coast, 100mph+ on the Isle of Wight ! Storm Dudley didnt affect us at all so as with all these things some get it, some miss it. Storm Alex in Oct 2020 hit the south but on that day we were holding a wedding ceremony on a sunny beach in Scotland. For a relatively tiny island we do get a lot of different weather. By the way I'd be quite happy to shift Eunice up your way if you feel left out !

 

[al78]

On the subject of Eunice, looked out the window to see a lot of snow outside... and it's still quite heavy. This is in Ayrshire.

It's not super windy though.

The strongest winds are south of the storm centre, so over England and Wales. The main issue in Scotland is heavy snow as the front and rain wrapping around the low comes up against cold air. It is the temperature gradient across the UK's latitudes which is providing the energy for this storm.

Whilst I fully understand the need to be ultra cautious it is based on the horrendous weather forecasts given. If these forecasts are not very accurate (eg timings, areas affected or wind strengths achieved) then no doubt there will be a backlash against the industry.

Surely the industry can only act on the forecasts given, they have no way of knowing in advance if they are going to be accurate, so can't see why they would be to blame. It would be worse to ignore the warnings on the basis they got it wrong once only to end up with many casualties, that would be recklessness.

 

[Scotrail314209]

I've just had a quick look at Flightradar and BA583 Venice-Heathrow was sat circling over south London but has now started to head north - presumably being diverted? (wrong mode of transport, I know...)

BA583 looks to be heading due north. Closely flanked by an easyJet flight from Amsterdam to Luton