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Driverless trains - why limited progress on the national rail network?

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IKB

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If fully automated trains were possible the benefits would be as they are on automated systems elsewhere.

More flexible service provision - increased demand due to evening sporting event, extra trains can be readily put on - possibly more of a benefit for freight

Cost savings - a train driver probably costs around £100 an hour of driving time - for local commuter type services there would be no reason why you would need anyone on board the train at all - leads to running more marginal services

Better time keeping - with best will in the world every driver is going to take a different time to do a single link - computers can ensure exactly the same time often with more efficient driving techniques reducing fuel consumption and brake wear and tear

Greater productivity of rolling stock on more lightly used lines - no need to build timetables around drivers breaks, service can just shuttle backwards and forwards all day

Possibly allow more rail reopenings - one I looked at drivers wages were third of the routes operating costs

Its not clear what the cost of automation will be or if it is possible but if autonomous vehicles do come about then its curtains for a large part of the rail network outside the big cities unless it can get costs down and improve its services.

I can see the attractions you mention, although I'm not sure some of them are as clear cut. But as you say, the big question is "if".

Cost savings/productivity might be more identifiable on metro/lightly used routes but probably less over long distance services.

But it isnt though, there are countless schemes coming up where it is colour light being replaced like for like. As much as the "digital railway" will eventually happen, its a long long way away.

London Bridge has just been re-signalled with conventional colour lights. What is the expected lifespan of what's just been installed? If East Croydon gets re-developed in a couple of years time I suspect that will get the same treatment.
 
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najaB

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I don't see how this makes a difference. Human drivers don't decrease train stopping distances.
In an urban driving environment the AI doesn't need to be able to decide if the pedestrian is going to step out or not into the road or not. This is because the low speed and short stopping distance means it can react *after* they step out and still stop before hitting them. The longer stopping distances for trains - even when approaching stations - means a certain amount of prediction is required.

Computers haven't yet reached the point where they can read body language, etc. to determine if the person running towards the platform edge has spotted the train or not.

I have no doubt that eventually they will, but it isn't there yet.
 

bramling

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Got me thinking. what happens on the DLR if the train hits a person does it have a camera system or just carry on till someone presses the red button

It just carries on.

There have been some pretty hairy incidents on the DLR over the years, for example a case where someone was on the track for some time before being run over by a train, or other cases where the first anyone knew about an incident is when a train departs and people on the platform see a mangled corpse on the track.
 
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gsnedders

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Computers haven't yet reached the point where they can read body language, etc. to determine if the person running towards the platform edge has spotted the train or not.

I have no doubt that eventually they will, but it isn't there yet.

AIUI, Google at least does do prediction based on body language as to whether they're about to step out into the road, and approaches them more cautiously (i.e., slower).
 

najaB

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AIUI, Google at least does do prediction based on body language as to whether they're about to step out into the road, and approaches them more cautiously (i.e., slower).
They also give a wide berth - not a luxury available on the railway.
 

The Planner

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London Bridge has just been re-signalled with conventional colour lights. What is the expected lifespan of what's just been installed? If East Croydon gets re-developed in a couple of years time I suspect that will get the same treatment.

You normally expect 40 years.
 

Dave1987

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I'm unsure what the OP is after in this thread TBH. The mainline railway network is an extremely complex beast. It's all well and good looking at closed loop systems with few variables that have some degree of automation and then demand to know why it isn't being applied to the mainline but you have to look at the bigger picture here. Even the DLR has a driver of sorts on board which have to take over during any degraded working. The are so many variables to take into consideration on the main line I believe you are attempting to over simplify it.
 

philthetube

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I don't think the issue of obstacles is a major showstopper, technically. You can just close off the system with fencing, remove any places where people can access the system (e.g. level crossings) and install platform-edge doors. You'd still have to have manual driving at certain times however, during failure conditions or for example after a storm. All this is technically possible, although whether it's affordable and whether there's any real benefit is another matter entirely.

So whats the point? Spend Billions on setting it all up then have fully trained staff available just in case?
 

MrPIC

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What is everyone who works in these automation areas supposed to do? What are drivers/guards/signallers and their supporting staff (managers/rosters etc) supposed to do? And in other industries too where are the people replaced by machines supposed to work and earn money? All this automation serves the people at the top who can make huge wage savings and likely not reduce the price of their product or service, and the working class of people at the bottom can just stick it. I can't see the government giving us all money for sitting around while robots do the work.
As for systems etc, as a driver I have enough trouble as it is with supposed "modern" trains and their computer faults, a favourite of mine is "Train is Lost", and I always think well its a bl**dy good job I know where we are then!
 

321446

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I think all the technology is there to do it. However, implementing it all will, and it WILL, cost an even bigger fortune than the Railway or Government is willing to spend. I of course don't have hard figures to hand to back that up, I can find them as can you, so if you want the figures, go find them then. But look at every major infrastructure project in this country and the amount they have cost. Even if "on time and on budget" they have all cost an eyewatering amount. And no project has run smoothly from start to implementation. So basically it all comes down to money. And Governments don't like spending it where it won't be going to their cronies. NHS. Railway etc.

GSMR doesn't work as it should in all areas - Whoop, whoop, whoop, Searching for Network.....2 miles later Beep Beep and you've got it back. How much money was spent on this countrywide replacement? Was it a resounding success?

No, this does not mean that nothing should ever be upgraded, otherwise we'd still have Bobby and his flag & stopwatch every mile. But, it will all take time and that will be a lot lot longer than some people want. Heavens, we still have people sitting in the front of aeroplanes and they're a lot more hi-tec than my 321. But they also work in a dynamic and fluid environment just like trains and cars. A few hundred widely spread Google cars does not make for a successful and safe computer controlled environment. Admittedly quite a few people would be safer in a computer controlled car, for sure!!! Computers are brilliant at the dull & repetitive or where light speed reactions are required. But I'm sorry to say, humans are not done yet. No system is 100% perfect. The best are where one helps the other. Eurofighter, DLR, HS1, damn even Automatic Routing System all have a significant other level of human interaction which helps keep them as safe as they are.

It's all a bit too much like Logan's Run & Terminator for my liking anyway.
 
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jon0844

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AIUI, Google at least does do prediction based on body language as to whether they're about to step out into the road, and approaches them more cautiously (i.e., slower).
This is why I think there are flaws. A computer has to play safe, and I can't imagine people won't try and confuse them for fun.

I think cars will ultimately require all cars to be autonomous, not mixing with other vehicles driven by ordinary people.

On the railway, it's already pretty secure and if a train did but a trespasser, a computer won't be unable to work again.

I fully expect that 100 years from now just about everything will be automated. I have no clue what people will do for work, but between now and then (sooner than 100 years but not within 4 or 5 as some car makers are suggesting, at least full hands off not even in the front of a car type of way) it's going to happen.

We may need to change laws so a autonomous vehicle isn't responsible for accidents where someone steps out etc. Otherwise there could be loads of legal cases with manufacturers held accountable. But what happens if there's an accident caused by a faulty sensor reading? It's going to be fun to imagine how that will work out, especially when lawyers themselves are set to be replaced by AI.
 

IKB

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What is everyone who works in these automation areas supposed to do? What are drivers/guards/signallers and their supporting staff (managers/rosters etc) supposed to do? And in other industries too where are the people replaced by machines supposed to work and earn money? All this automation serves the people at the top who can make huge wage savings and likely not reduce the price of their product or service, and the working class of people at the bottom can just stick it. I can't see the government giving us all money for sitting around while robots do the work.
As for systems etc, as a driver I have enough trouble as it is with supposed "modern" trains and their computer faults, a favourite of mine is "Train is Lost", and I always think well its a bl**dy good job I know where we are then!

Agree. This is what I was alluding to in post 27.
 

jon0844

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There are so many things that need to be addressed, and I expect we'll get systems that are very good - and then in due course there will be some incidents that send engineers back to the drawing board.

I can't imagine for one second we won't have some quite spectacular accidents in the future - and we'll have to accept them and perhaps wonder if a real person might have predicted whatever a computer didn't on that occasion. It could even be mechanical, where a computer didn't detect a fault that a real person might have spotted or felt.

There's also the malicious damage and vandalism issue (one reason why I can't see empty cars driving all over the UK for people to just jump into, unless we'll be employing all those people who lost their jobs to roam around cleaning them?).

While I can see trains being perfect for automation, I am not sure I really want to step into a driverless taxi that - in order to keep clean - is likely to look more like a Class 700 train inside, perhaps even with plastic seats, than a fairly comfortable taxi you might get into today.
 

The Ham

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There is a difference between could we start to install an automated system network wide tomorrow (almost certainly not) and could we over time make the network so that certain aspects could be automated leading to a point where automation is almost guaranteed (more certain, but not guaranteed).

Automated cars have a LONG way to go before they are universal, however their "brain" would have to be a LOT smarter than that required for an automated train. For instance, how do you program a computer to work on a narrow country lane with passing places?

However, much as people will say that they don't want driver less cars and/or will carry on driving themselves it is almost inevitable that if the systems work and prove to be as safe or safer than a typical driver that over time there will be things put in place to discourage people from driving themselves (i.e. reassessment every 10 years to prove you are still a competent driver, which given the fuss about older drivers being unsafe from some sectors could be relatively easy to start, especially given that taking away someones driving licence would no longer mean that they couldn't get about).

For the time being automated cars are likely to have short ranges on them, which would likely lead to a boost in rail travel for longer distance travel.

Automated cars would not just be a replacement for those who use a taxi, there are a lot of people who belong to car clubs for whom it could be useful.

I also think that our traditional view of what a car should be like could change with the introduction of automated cars, as why do you need one vehicle per passenger pod? Would it not be more efficient to have two or three passenger pods with a vehicle travelling along a route stopping to pick up and set down other passengers (more akin to a train or bus but with a very limited calling pattern), in doing so it may add some time to how long it would take to get from home to work but if enough vehicles did it that time lost could be made up by the fact that there were less vehicles using the roads. To encourage their usage these multi pod vehicles could be cheaper than a single pod system (with the company making up the shortfall by being able to charge more people to use it, i.e. single pod vehicle £20 journey cost, multi pod vehicle £15 journey cost but with the operator being able to also add in two additional journeys at £7).

It could see the return of a travelling trunk with passengers loading them up in advance of vehicle then picking them up. If they were weather tight then it could be possible for them to be automatically loaded onto the vehicle. This could make pick up/drop off times fairly quick. such trunks could also be self propelled with a range of (say) 500m so as to allow them to be easily moved. (Anyone else thinking of "the luggage" that Rincewind has in the Discworld novals???).

With no self drive vehicles there would be less need for central reserves and so there could be scope for a traditional motorway which has 3 lanes in each direction to become a 7 lane road with each lane being able to be used for traffic in either direction depending on the required demand (including provision for road works). As such you could have 5 lanes towards a city and 2 away from it in the morning peak, with the reverse being true in the evening peak.

With regards to the railways, it is likely to be slow and steady and so in 50 years time there are a lot less tasks a driver needs to worry about. Much in the same way that cars can detect wheel slip on one wheel and reduce power to just that one wheel, so trains could do the same when determining how fast to accelerate.

Trains would have a major advantage over cars in that one train could learn from the train in front (i.e. do I detect that I need more time to brake as the rails are icy, this information is logged and the next train there allows more time to break). Even on lower frequency services (say hourly) a train at 20:00 would report that it needed to do x, so the train at 21:00 when (say) the temperature has dropped could then think x was what was need an hour ago my temperature sensor shows a 5 degree fall in temperature since then, I'll best add in a margin of error as conditions are likely to have worsened.

Yes automation of the railways would cost a lot of money, but it is likely to be done on a slow creep method. As such it is likely to take a long time to come about, but I wouldn't be surprised if we started to see more systems being automated.
 

gsnedders

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What is everyone who works in these automation areas supposed to do? What are drivers/guards/signallers and their supporting staff (managers/rosters etc) supposed to do? And in other industries too where are the people replaced by machines supposed to work and earn money? All this automation serves the people at the top who can make huge wage savings and likely not reduce the price of their product or service, and the working class of people at the bottom can just stick it. I can't see the government giving us all money for sitting around while robots do the work.

This is exactly what was said when it came to the mass-automation of the industrial revolution, the reduction in staff with production lines, the introduction of robots into factories… and yet, despite all that, unemployment has remained fairly constant since the industrial revolution.
 

jon0844

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This is exactly what was said when it came to the mass-automation of the industrial revolution, the reduction in staff with production lines, the introduction of robots into factories… and yet, despite all that, unemployment has remained fairly constant since the industrial revolution.
I am not sure it has ever been on a scale of what we're looking at. The only reason it won't happen quickly in some industries is cost of introduction, so when prices fall it will happen.

We're talking not about warehouse workers and other low paid jobs, it includes many professional skilled jobs. So thinking your children should go to university will save them is naive.

Even the building trade might be hit as we move towards more prefabricated buildings, which will have been built by robots and could be shipped by an autonomous lorry...
 

najaB

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For the time being automated cars are likely to have short ranges on them...
Why do you think that? Highway driving is the easiest to automate: all the vehicles are going the same direction, at roughly the same speed and there are relatively few obstacles.
 

MrPIC

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This is exactly what was said when it came to the mass-automation of the industrial revolution, the reduction in staff with production lines, the introduction of robots into factories… and yet, despite all that, unemployment has remained fairly constant since the industrial revolution.

Call me a socialist luddite but it seems entirely to me about reducing costs for big business types and nothing at all to do with 90% of the working population who will lose jobs, wages and thus power. No good having a fully automated super duper all singing and dancing railway if nobody can afford to use it or even need to "commute" in the first place!
I just don't see where it will end and how the current capitalist style system we use will adapt to it.
 
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158756

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Why do you think that? Highway driving is the easiest to automate: all the vehicles are going the same direction, at roughly the same speed and there are relatively few obstacles.

Current driverless cars being tested in the U.S. require detailed maps of their routes in order to operate. Creating and maintaining such maps will be time consuming, and a pain for the miles of empty country lanes. Driverless cars of the taxi variety will probably also require the owners to have some sort of infrastructure to look after them and solve any problems which might occur.

So I would think it likely that if/when they are first introduced to the UK it will be London or some other city first, before expanding across the country if successful.
 

najaB

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Current driverless cars being tested in the U.S. require detailed maps of their routes in order to operate. Creating and maintaining such maps will be time consuming, and a pain for the miles of empty country lanes.
Which is precisely why highway driving assistance systems (cf Tesla's Autopilot) are the first wave of autonomous driving. In the near future I imagine that most private vehicle owners will only drive their cars to the nearest A road from where it will take over until they get to or close to their destination.
 

Astradyne

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Same on a train, potentially. I can't see much case for unstaffed mainline trains - it's "guard only operation" that I'd see as a most likely scenario. If the computer can't cope, brakes on and "Will the guard please proceed to the control panel at the front of the train" on the PIS.

I intend this to be my only post on this thread.

An ATO will just become another computer controlled machine ... computer systems are generally supported remotely and faults diagnosed/rectified ... I have been informed trains have a 100% reliable communications system, so this could be used for both data and voice ... if trains needs to be driven manually why can it not be remotely driven like a drone ... trains after all have no need to engage enemies with hellfire missiles which would seem to have a lot higher safety risks associated.

If you are going to make this huge investment that ATO requires, you might as well do the job properly. But it would take a significant investment ... which whilst it is probably technically feasible ... I do not think there is a will and a way for it at the current time.

To overcome one further objection ... computers can have temperature sensors attached to them ... would have thought if something got hot, a modern train would know about it before the driver.
 

jon0844

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5G is supposed to have immense capacity so all vehicles can communicate with each other in real time, and with low latency (no good having fast moving vehicles where there's a delay between signalling each other).

I can't be the only one to imagine what happens when things go down. Will all these autonomous vehicles have a manual drive mode?

Also, assuming we have cars and other traffic getting rid of drivers so computers can manage everything - what about things like the emergency services, cyclists, tractors and so on? They'll need to work around them, and vice versa.
 

HSTEd

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It doesn't matter if a data connection to the train is 100% reliable or not as long as its failure can be detected rapidly.
If you can identify loss of data-stream within one second (by the absence of 'radio check' datagrams) then it matters little.
Can just have the computer go directly to emergency braking if signal loss is identified.
 

WelshBluebird

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Can just have the computer go directly to emergency braking if signal loss is identified.

That sounds like a recipe for a very unreliable service to me!

Certainly is is technologically possible, and I believe it is part of one of the ETCS standards, but knowing how dodgy radio communications can be, I am not 100% sure that is a great idea. Others who know the details and have experienced running using GSM-R and ETCS can chime in better here.
 
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HSTEd

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That sounds like a recipe for a very unreliable service to me!
Certainly is is technologically possible, and I believe it is part of one of the ETCS standards, but knowing how dodgy radio communications can be, I am not 100% sure that is a great idea.

That depends really doesn't it.
The alternative is to do something really fun using power line signalling in OHLE. Which could get interesting given the harmonics that trains pump into the power line.
 

najaB

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Can just have the computer go directly to emergency braking if signal loss is identified.
Sounds like a recipe for a very safe, but exceedingly unpunctual railway with trains stopping randomly all over the place. I have lots of experience in the telecoms industry and I don't believe that we'll have 100% reliable coverage any time soon.
 
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