East Coast Open Access decisions made: First Group and VTEC win whilst GC lose

[swt_passenger]

My point really was that with additional VTEC and First paths already granted, TPE might not have a clear run.

Sorry, I took that part of your post onboard but didn't feel the need to add anything in reply.

Something else I've just realised though, is that the TPE applications are only on Network Rail's consultation page at the moment, so depending when NR pass them on to ORR, then the point made in their letter may be more correct than I'd thought.

FTPE mention the ECML access process being discussed in this thread in their TAA, but the overall TAA seems clear that there's a lot to do before their extended paths north of Newcastle can be confirmed:

FTPE recognises the on-going industry process currently taking place regarding access to the ECML and the allocation of capacity beyond 2020. This application is made in light of and taking account of this process and is consistent with the ORR case team’s current best view on ECML capacity and available paths (as expressed in ORR's letter to stakeholders dated 24 March 2016 in respect of the ECML access applications).
http://www.networkrail.co.uk/browse...ion form p - package a ecml from pcd 2017.pdf

 

[Bletchleyite]

I know there was the issue with Chiltern using WSMR to operate franchised services - but as I think these are to be operated using AT300s, as are the TPEs, and both are to be 5-car, could they portion-work on the core section?

 

[Masboroughlad]

Why do Alliance just conentrate their London service desires on Euston and Kings X? Why not look at Cleethorpes to St.Pancras? Via Retford or Doncaster or Sheffield?

Have they dropped their cross Pennine services?

I am sure there must be room and desire to link 2 non-London cities.

Wonder if First's service will be cram as many people as possible on the trains? Take it there will be catering on board....

 

[tbtc]

So these are the paths which Virgin were going to need the shortened IC225 rakes for?

It'll be interesting to see if confirmation of these extra services means an increased IEP order from Virgin (and then complaints from enthusiasts that they are recycling a story that we all assumed months ago)

Why?
The Alliance Rail plan would of connected new places to the ECML, places which are suffering economic strain largely due to governments ignoring them.
Answer:
To keep Tory support in Scotland high

So the nasty Tories hate economically deprived places on the east coast of England...

...that's why they* are allowing VTEC to run bi-hourly services from Middlesbrough to London?

(* - yes, I know it's not politicians in charge of the decision, I'm exaggerating for effect)

I don't think it's possible to *keep* Tory support in Scotland high, is it?

Judging by how many of Scotland's constituencies are SNP I don't think there's much Tory support in Scotland anyway.

Second biggest party at Holyrood, after last week's election - despite the "more pandas than Tory MPs" jokes over the years, the Tory support has maintained around 15% in Scotland since the collapse in the '90s - roughly the level that UKIP get in England - a minority party, certainly, but not an electoral irrelevance.

I think the First concept is interesting - and may well have been accepted as a useful experiment on different fares concepts?

Will they join ORCATS or will it be a completely closed fares system I wonder (e.g. solely online booking)? I can see why DfT may want to experiment with the latter.

The latter would be very interesting - could lead to the break up of inter-available fares and also force future Open Access applications to stand on their own feet.

 

[GrimsbyPacer]

To me a town with a population of 88,000 getting 450,000 journeys per annum when there are 70 services stopping there on weekdays sounds like the current level of service meets the current demand. On average, there are less passengers boarding/alighting existing services at Grimsby than there are in many smaller towns.

Is it really a new service you need or the local services which are currently 2 hourly enhanced to run more frequently?

You're forgetting that Cleethorpes is also part of the town physically, and that Grimsby Docks has passengers too. Name one smaller town with more people alighting that has a service as bad as Grimsby.
The reasons why passenger numbers are low are:
1, jam-packed Lincoln trains putting people off.
2, Barton train is extremely unreliable, often 30% of services are cancelled thanks to Transpennine strike action.
3, trains to Doncaster go at a whopping 26mph.
4, trains on the Brigg line are virtuall non existent.
5, TPE trains have always been likely to be cancelled if it's landslips, broken bridges, derailed freight, strike or driver shortages, blockades etc. Often lasting monthes.
6, fares are nearly always cheaper in Hull to whatever destination, this line is costly in comparrison putting people off travelling.
7, no split ticket opportunities or special offers.
8, the TPE trains do get full alot.

A new service would increase usage, otherwise the service we have will just get worse and worse leading to more economic woes.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The latter would be very interesting - could lead to the break up of inter-available fares and also force future Open Access applications to stand on their own feet.

It would, but it would also truly simplify fares - you buy a ticket for the specific train you want to travel on, if you want to travel on a different train refund it and buy a new one. No permitted routes, no time restrictions, no mucking about. Genuinely simple, particularly if like easyJet etc there are very few sets or indeed is only one set of T&Cs.

I'm not saying I would necessarily support that for the whole network (indeed I wouldn't) but I think it is a worthwhile trial on a small Open Access operation, and equally it would remove any objection to such operations being ORCATS raids.

Indeed, I'm not sure how they would handle the demand on a route like that with 5-car units without such measures, particularly compulsory reservations.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
FWIW there are ways such concepts could work on a wider network - for instance zoning all long-distance fares formally (which is sort of the case anyway) - so for instance you buy a Liverpool to London ticket with a reserved train or pair of trains changing somewhere, you get free local travel on unreserved trains in the Merseyrail and TfL zones, for one example, or you can add them on for a simple fixed fee on each end. A bit like the DB CityTicket concept.

 

[ScotTrains]

It's strange First won't actually have 1st class on their trains. The morning and evening VTEC services are often very busy in 1st leaving Edinburgh. I've struggled to book seats together in the past. It would have made sense to tap into this market as well. It would also generate more competition and possibly put pressure on VTEC to finally provide a dinner service on their trains leaving Edinburgh rather than just from trains leaving London.
Unless First's tickets are ridiculously low, I don't think this announcement will impact VTEC's lucrative 1st class market at all.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Single-class is a little surprising - most of the similar European open access operations have actually gone 3 class.

It sounds like it might slightly resemble a single class version of:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LEO_Express

 

[pemma]

Name one smaller town with more people alighting that has a service as bad as Grimsby.

Just one? In that case my own town - Knutsford. Population 13,000. Annual usage 494,000 (higher than Grimsby Town and Grimsby Docks combined.) Total number of services on a weekday: 39. The service to Manchester takes up to 50 minutes, yet the town is just 14 miles from Manchester as the crow flies and in the evening peak the only direct services leaving Manchester are 17:09 and 18:17. Passengers on the line have had to attempt to get up to around 280 on 2 car Pacers on occasions. Fares are also a lot more expensive in Cheshire than in neighbouring Greater Manchester. The newest trains we get are 156s and the only Advance fares available are for flows which involve changing to Virgin services.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Just one? In that case my own town - Knutsford. Population 13,000. Annual usage 494,000 (higher than Grimsby Town and Grimsby Docks combined.) Total number of services on a weekday: 39. The service to Manchester takes up to 50 minutes, yet the town is just 14 miles from Manchester as the crow flies and in the evening peak the only direct services leaving Manchester are 17:09 and 18:17. Passengers on the line have had to attempt to get up to around 280 on 2 car Pacers on occasions. Fares are also a lot more expensive in Cheshire than in neighbouring Greater Manchester. The newest trains we get are 156s and the only Advance fares available are for flows which involve changing to Virgin services.

Advance fares are not of relevance to this kind of non-reserved Regional service. Yes, I know some TOCs disregard this but I consider this silly.

The capacity problem is one that the entire North West commuter operation is experiencing - it needs fixing by way of the acquisition of a load of new rolling stock in addition to Pacer replacement, of course, but it really isn't just you.

 

[GrimsbyPacer]

http://m.grimsbytelegraph.co.uk/Bid...orpes-London/story-29264756-detail/story.html

The Grimsby Telegraph have an article up now.
It says the Cleethorpes MP has a plan B in place for Virgin Lincoln trains to be extended, no good for Scunthorpe though.

By Grimsby Telegraph

Bid to create direct train route between Cleethorpes and London rejected

By Grimsby Telegraph. Posted: May 12, 2016 By Patrick Daly, Parliamentary Correspondent The GNER planned to use new bi-modal Hitachi trains on the Cleethorpes route Comments.

RAIL regulators have rejected an application to create a new direct link between London and Cleethorpes.The route was chopped in the 1990s but an application was made by Great North Eastern Railway Company (GNER) to the Office for Rail and Road (ORR) to re-establish it more than two years ago.The application was for a joint new franchise serving both North East Lincolnshire and West Yorkshire.

The ORR said that, while it would have approved a Cleethorpes-only line, more trains to West Yorkshire could end up costing the Government "several hundred million of pounds".GNER's submission was for four return trains a day between London and Cleethorpes, travelling via Doncaster, and also seven daily returns from London to Bradford and Ilkley using new Hitachi bi-mode trains.It would have also seen a new train station built serving East Leeds.The new routes - especially the section serving Cleethorpes, Grimsby and Scunthorpes - would generate a profit, but the ORR declared that the West Yorkshire routes would create instability for the franchises serving that part of the country.Cleethorpes passengers will have to wait longer yet to see a direct link to London established" These financial impacts would have been reduced had the application focused on serving, say, just the Cleethorpes line," wrote the ORR in its final judgment letter."This line has no direct services to London at the moment and we have previously approved applications whose main impact is to provide such new direct services.

However, GNER told us this was not commercially viable on its own."It told us a 6 trains a day service to West Yorkshire could be viable, but in our view this would still result in unacceptably high levels of abstraction (profit loss to franchise holder Virgin)."Virgin's franchise contract has a clause which means 80 per cent of its costs would fall to the Department for Transport if the contract begins to lose money, which the ORR said could cost the Transport Secretary "several hundred million pounds".

Cleethorpes MP Martin Vickers reacted to the news saying he "regretted" the decision but said he was already in talks over securing a Plan B."

 

[pemma]

Advance fares are not of relevance to this kind of non-reserved Regional service. Yes, I know some TOCs disregard this but I consider this silly.

With Northern introducing advance fares on some routes there's all sort of weird anomalies. For instance why can you get an Advance fare from Manchester to Newton-le-Willows but not one to Buxton, Delamere or Clitheroe?

However, with the comparison to Grimsby what I was really thinking of is Advance fares are available for a lot of journeys on TPE but not for journeys which involve a connection on a Northern service.

You're forgetting that Cleethorpes is also part of the town physically

Just checked and that's incorrect. Even though it's not still used for it's original use Cleethorpes Town Hall being in existence is a big clue that Cleethorpes is a town in it's own right!
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Single-class is a little surprising - most of the similar European open access operations have actually gone 3 class.

It sounds like it might slightly resemble a single class version of:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LEO_Express

Apparently they'll have interiors like what was proposed for commuter IEP so will be more like this: http://www.railwaygazette.com/uploads/pics/tn_jp-jrhokkaido-h5-impression-standard.jpg

 

[Bletchleyite]

3+2 has not to my knowledge been proposed for any brand new UK rolling stock of any kind since the 350/2s, and LM have said in the past they regretted it. I cannot imagine these trains having a single class 3+2 layout. I could if they were three-class - budget, standard and premium - but they are not.

 

[daikilo]

It's strange First won't actually have 1st class on their trains. The morning and evening VTEC services are often very busy in 1st leaving Edinburgh. I've struggled to book seats together in the past. It would have made sense to tap into this market as well. It would also generate more competition and possibly put pressure on VTEC to finally provide a dinner service on their trains leaving Edinburgh rather than just from trains leaving London.
Unless First's tickets are ridiculously low, I don't think this announcement will impact VTEC's lucrative 1st class market at all.

I suspect this, and the idea that their trains may be overtaken by VTEC trains is a clever ploy to get in under the radar of wide-spread abstraction. The fact that they got through even without the "overtake" assumption whereas the GNER speeders did not may show how that part of the evaluation method actually works.

On the day, how about a coach/es for full-fare pax only? Not first, just full ...

Finally, I''m intrigued by how the GC abstraction was evaluated on a per-route basis whilst the profit is for the network I believe i.e. add all the abstraction together and they become loss-making hence could shut-down!

 

[HH]

5tph in some hours Newcastle-Edinburgh seems too much to me (2xVTEC, XC, First, TPE).

I believe NR were saying that 4.5 tph was the maximum that could be accomodated. However, by 2021 they may have increased.

--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Take it there will be catering on board....

Yes, but that may just mean a trolley...

 

[DaiGog]

The FirstGroup model is essentially 'airline on rails', mimicking the like of EasyJet. So one class of accommodation, food served at seat, etc all makes sense.

There will undoubtedly be initiatives in ticketing which I would expect to follow the airline model as well. So plenty of advance bookings, Mobile ticketing, print at home, smart ticketing, scan-it-and-go type stuff. Whether or not this becomes exclusively so, with no ORCATS money, remains to be seen.

Although there is arguably some innovation to satisfy the rule that Open Access must do something new or fill a gap (e.g. Stevenage - Edinburgh as another poster stated above) the whole idea of this is to extract business for rail from the airline market, so new business will largely come from there. It will certainly be interesting to watch.

 

[pemma]

The FirstGroup model is essentially 'airline on rails', mimicking the like of EasyJet. So one class of accommodation, food served at seat, etc all makes sense. .

Except to hear:

"Those of you who have purchased priority boarding may proceed to the doors for boarding now."

"Our staff will soon be passing through to sell scratch cards."

"Please find a complimentary magazine in your seat pocket."

"When opening the overhead compartments please be aware that items might have moved around."

"We are experiencing some bouncing so the driver has switched on the return to seats light."

 

[MCR247]

Except to hear:



"We are experiencing some bouncing so the driver has switched on the return to seats light."

That would probably be quite appropriate on a Mk4!

 

[DaiGog]

Except to hear:

"Those of you who have purchased priority boarding may proceed to the doors for boarding now."

If the train interiors are to budget airline standard, priority disembarking may be attractive!

As long as the similarities don't extend to sick bags, it should be at least bearable.......

 

[overthewater]

The FirstGroup model is essentially 'airline on rails', mimicking the like of EasyJet. So one class of accommodation, food served at seat, etc all makes sense. .

So its Megatrain then? Stagecoach has been doing this on for years.

 

[ScotTrains]

I can't think what is worse: Arriving late, or having to listen to that annoying tune when you arrive at your destination on time.

 

[alastair]

Rather a strange take on this from the RMT:http://www.rmt.org.uk/news/rmt-on-first-group-runing-trains-on-east-coast120516/

The RMT appear to believe that the introduction of a new "low-cost" service with an average fare of £25 is "the green light to wack up fares"??

They also appear to be most unhappy with Open Access generally. Do Grand Central and Hull Trains not employ RMT members? Would RMT like these TOC's to be closed down and their members sacked?

Confusing stuff!

 

[ChathillMan]

Do VTEC have any scope to renegotiate with the DfT?

I do feel a bit sorry for anyone that operates on the EC under franchise. I know they are aware of what they are getting in to before they bid, but it's an awful line to try and make money on as you have competitors all over the place... and now First on EDB to KGX. Part of me thinks Branson was right, make the entire line open access!

Sent from my ONE A2003 using Tapatalk

 

[Harbornite]

You're forgetting that Cleethorpes is also part of the town physically, and that Grimsby Docks has passengers too. Name one smaller town with more people alighting that has a service as bad as Grimsby.
The reasons why passenger numbers are low are:
1, jam-packed Lincoln trains putting people off.
2, Barton train is extremely unreliable, often 30% of services are cancelled thanks to Transpennine strike action.
3, trains to Doncaster go at a whopping 26mph.
4, trains on the Brigg line are virtuall non existent.
5, TPE trains have always been likely to be cancelled if it's landslips, broken bridges, derailed freight, strike or driver shortages, blockades etc. Often lasting monthes.
6, fares are nearly always cheaper in Hull to whatever destination, this line is costly in comparrison putting people off travelling.
7, no split ticket opportunities or special offers.
8, the TPE trains do get full alot.

A new service would increase usage, otherwise the service we have will just get worse and worse leading to more economic woes.

You can't blame the government, the ORR or the TOC's for the factors listed in point no.5.

 

[trentside]

You can't blame the government, the ORR or the TOC's for the factors listed in point no.5.

And the points listed don't really add anything to the open access debate. As jcollins suggested, the issues for Grimsby and Cleethorpes relate more to the need to improve existing services than to the introduction of new ones.

I for one am pleased to see that a two hourly Lincoln service is back on the cards. We can live in hope that these will help relieve pressure on the GNGE between Lincoln and Peterborough, and free up units from Newark North Gate shuttles. I'd hope for some joined up thinking on the latter but it remains to be seen.

 

[yorksrob]

I hope the plethora of new services doesn't lead GNER to reconsider their existing operations (as one of the above posters has suggested). At the moment they're the more competitive option from Yorkshire. If they were to go, I wouldn't trust Stagecoach-Virgin not to jack up their prices even more !

On the other hand, VTEC's extra Edinburgh services mean there'll probably be Mk4's on the ECML for a few years yet which is nice.

As for the First cut price service, it doesn't really have any relevance to me as there doesn't seem to be any way to connect into it from Yorkshire. Nevertheless, it will be interesting to see how the concept of the budget train will work. If they do have £25 fares, it could empty the coach and maybe even dent the Anglo-Scottish flight market.

Perhaps this is the last hurragh for the ECML before HS2/self driving vehicles turn it into a backwater.

 

[NorthernSpirit]

Except to hear:

"Please find a complimentary magazine in your seat pocket."

Which you'd find crumpled on the floor, damaged with a page or two missing as someone has gone and chucked it on the deck.

 

[Andyh82]

Two worries, one being that the TPE to Edinburgh may be at risk by this development if there aren't enough paths. A link to Edinburgh from the likes of Huddersfield would have been attractive.

Secondly won't this abstract revenue from VTEC and by offering a budget service possibly cause a race to the bottom as VTEC try to compete. Lowering their fares on that route, increasing them on others, axing buffets, lowering staff numbers, higher density seating to cram more people in etc etc.

 

[Kite159]

Rather a strange take on this from the RMT:http://www.rmt.org.uk/news/rmt-on-first-group-runing-trains-on-east-coast120516/

The RMT appear to believe that the introduction of a new "low-cost" service with an average fare of £25 is "the green light to wack up fares"??

They also appear to be most unhappy with Open Access generally. Do Grand Central and Hull Trains not employ RMT members? Would RMT like these TOC's to be closed down and their members sacked?

Confusing stuff!

It's the RMT, what else did you expect?

If's it anything like SWT, next month they will be all for Open Access.

------------

Which you'd find crumpled on the floor, damaged with a page or two missing as someone has gone and chucked it on the deck.

Or two pages stuck together due to someone using it to store their chewing gum

---------

Was Stevenage really used as a deal breaker (I suspect it will be an enforced "pick-up/Set-down" only stop like it is on Hull Trains from time to time). At a random guess, I suspect the seating will be all airline style, probably with the bare minimum leg room in order to put in an extra row per carriage)

 

[ainsworth74]

Secondly won't this abstract revenue from VTEC and by offering a budget service possibly cause a race to the bottom as VTEC try to compete. Lowering their fares on that route, increasing them on others, axing buffets, lowering staff numbers, higher density seating to cram more people in etc etc.

It's only five trains each way per day! It might abstract revenue, possibly, but I can't see it being that catastrophic!