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East West Rail: Bedford - Cambridge will it ever get built?

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Arkeeos

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Both business cases a pretty similar, no?

EWR's is 2.4 when accounting for growth estimates, and HS2s I believe is something similar.
 
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tspaul26

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Where do the business cases get published to compare?
The business case for the central section of EWR between Bedford and Cambridge is unlikely to be completed for several years so you’ll have to wait some time - if it even gets published at all since Government practice is somewhat inconsistent on this front.
They are available publicly.

the EWR business case is not good, and never has been.

Both business cases a pretty similar, no?

EWR's is 2.4 when accounting for growth estimates, and HS2s I believe is something similar.
On a point of order, you are both (as I understand it) referring to benefit-cost ratios (‘BCRs’). These form part of a business case (falling within the ‘economic case’), but are not the same thing and the current guidance for transport projects places less emphasis on BCRs for decision-making in any event.

BCRs also don’t capture (in money terms) all of the benefits of a given project so they don’t paint a complete picture.

The ‘strategic case’ part of the EWR business case is excellent from everything I have seen.
 

cle

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Well, not quite.

Such processes have several stages to go through. If this one had been as 'cut and dry' as you make it out to be, then we'd have shovels on the ground now. Whereas the reality is it has passed some of the early stages - no guarantee it would have passed all the remaining ones even pre Covid.
Well, not quite.

It's a phased project, and phase one has many stages - and that has shovels in the ground and bridges in the air. Nobody in this thread has ever said that Bedford-Cambridge should or would be under construction right now, or isn't contingent on the other phases being built. Don't move the goal posts here.

I agree on the universities piece though, it's simplistic. The universities are a huge part of why those two cities have developed these amazing industries of science, medicine, technology, publishing, research etc etc - and those cities have in the last ~20 years especially, become much more than the universities - but the travel demand is not between the actual university institutions themselves.
 

Sonik

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I expect private sector financing to be part of the funding of the eastern end of East West Rail, both the existing big high tech companies (eg Astra Zeneca) and the housebuilding companies with land around Cambourne and St Neots.

They will stay in Cambridge, because the university isn't going anywhere else.
Totally agree. AZ and a few others already publicly asked the govt not to scrap EWR. Cambridge is the place for these companies to do business, but housing is unaffordable which makes recruitment at all levels more difficult; good transport from more affordable areas fixes this.

It's the exact same reason Silicon Valley wants California HSR, but EWR is quite a bit cheaper.
 

A0

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Totally agree. AZ and a few others already publicly asked the govt not to scrap EWR. Cambridge is the place for these companies to do business, but housing is unaffordable which makes recruitment at all levels more difficult; good transport from more affordable areas fixes this.

It's the exact same reason Silicon Valley wants California HSR, but EWR is quite a bit cheaper.

But if its about providing a transport link from St Neots or Cambourne into Cambridge - they a busway would be cheaper to build, offer more frequent services, be cheaper to operate, have greater flexibility and doesn't mean trying to dig up half of Bedford to achieve it.

The busway just up the road has carried *far* more passengers than a heavy rail link with at best a 2tph service from Cambridge to St Ives ever would.
 

bspahh

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But if its about providing a transport link from St Neots or Cambourne into Cambridge - they a busway would be cheaper to build, offer more frequent services, be cheaper to operate, have greater flexibility and doesn't mean trying to dig up half of Bedford to achieve it.
EWR will carry short range commuter traffic, but it isn't just about that.

It will also support long range commutes, which you get if you have a couple each with specialized careers, where there aren't many jobs around. It increases the size of the travel to work area, which has a big economic value. At the moment, you could only have a couple where one works in the Cambridge area, and the other in the Oxford area, if both people had a long drive to work, or if they lived in central London.
 

cle

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EWR will carry short range commuter traffic, but it isn't just about that.

It will also support long range commutes, which you get if you have a couple each with specialized careers, where there aren't many jobs around. It increases the size of the travel to work area, which has a big economic value. At the moment, you could only have a couple where one works in the Cambridge area, and the other in the Oxford area, if both people had a long drive to work, or if they lived in central London.
Exactly. Yes EWR will be able to do Cambourne to Cambridge (4tph planned I believe) and St Neots/Sandy too. But it also acts as the regional/long distance connector also. Plus freight potential. And many other journey pairs, of which Cambridge-Oxford is just one. And connects to the MML, WCML, GWML(ish) - it does more overall than a busway ever could.

And providing more orbital links helps against London-centricity, car use, and encourages better place-making at a tier or two down. Much needed.

Nobody is explicitly building EWR to facilitate high-volume commuting into Cambridge from those two towns. It's far broader and more versatile than that.

And buses are not equal to trains.
 

Brubulus

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Exactly. Yes EWR will be able to do Cambourne to Cambridge (4tph planned I believe) and St Neots/Sandy too. But it also acts as the regional/long distance connector also. Plus freight potential. And many other journey pairs, of which Cambridge-Oxford is just one. And connects to the MML, WCML, GWML(ish) - it does more overall than a busway ever could.

And providing more orbital links helps against London-centricity, car use, and encourages better place-making at a tier or two down. Much needed.

Nobody is explicitly building EWR to facilitate high-volume commuting into Cambridge from those two towns. It's far broader and more versatile than that.

And buses are not equal to trains.
Agree completely, also remeber that busways tend to not improve journey times massively over regular buses as the most congested areas tend not to get new busways. The argument for buses over trains 10 years ago was that trains could not reach the city centre while buses could. However the majority of skilled employment in Cambridge is or will be within a reasonable walking distance of a rail station with the construction of Cambridge South. Cambourne is projected to get a busway anyway and this is an important link, filling a hole in the UK rail network and busways can't be used by freight trains. The rail link allows for many loger distance combinations which would be impossible for a busway. However efficencies need to be made on the plans such as six tracking the Bedford approach. Furthermore any Cambridge transport solution needs rail links to Haverhill and Wisbech as they are largeish deprived towns which would be in a far better state if commuting to cambridge from them was a reasonable proposition.
 

A0

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EWR will carry short range commuter traffic, but it isn't just about that.

It will also support long range commutes, which you get if you have a couple each with specialized careers, where there aren't many jobs around. It increases the size of the travel to work area, which has a big economic value. At the moment, you could only have a couple where one works in the Cambridge area, and the other in the Oxford area, if both people had a long drive to work, or if they lived in central London.

The number of people - both now and in the future that this will apply to is vanishingly small, certainly nowhere near enough to justify EWR.

In over 20 years of working in the Milton Keynes area I've *never* come across such a split where one person is working in the Oxford area and the other in the Cambridge area. You need to be realistic.

I completely agree that there will be commuter traffic from St Neots and Cambourne to Cambridge - but most people choose to limit their commutes to ~1 hour - this isn't going to address that. And the elephant in the room for Milton Keynes and Bedford is London will be a quicker journey with better paid jobs.
 

A0

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Exactly. Yes EWR will be able to do Cambourne to Cambridge (4tph planned I believe)

Bit in bold - I'll go to a quiet corner where I can stop laughing.

But it also acts as the regional/long distance connector also.

Not this again - it's patently untrue. If you're coming from north of the ECML and want to get to Cambridge for example you'll change at Peterboro, not St Neots. Equally if you want to get from Grantham or beyond to Milton Keynes, it won't be any quicker than the current via Leicester / Nuneaton / Tamworth options.

Plus freight potential.

There is no freight potential for the eastern section of EWR - not least because the freight from Felixstowe would then need to go via Newmarket which I thought from other posts around here was gauge restricted.

There are, I recall from other posters, a limited number of freight paths between Oxford and Bletchley, but that's it.

And providing more orbital links helps against London-centricity, car use, and encourages better place-making at a tier or two down.

Bit in bold - massively wide of the mark - companies aren't relocating from London to Cambridge - the big one which everyone likes to cite was Astra Zeneca, and their relocation was from Cheshire - Radnor Park, just outside Alderley Edge to be precise. They still have a plant at Macclesfield, but the staff which were relocated to Cambridge were all relocated from Cheshire and the North West, not out of London.

And on the "reducing car use" - would you care to give an example of any non-city rail reopening in the UK which has actually achieved this, because I don't believe any have.


Nobody is explicitly building EWR to facilitate high-volume commuting into Cambridge from those two towns.

Except that's one of - pretty much the only - benefit of the Eastern section. The claimed demand for people to access Cambridge - because there sure as hell isn't the demand for 4 trains per hour's worth of people want to travel into Bedford every day.

And buses are not equal to trains.

Correct - they are *far* cheaper to operate, far more flexible, carry far more people on a daily basis and operate with a fraction of the subsidy the rail network does.
 

A0

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Agree completely, also remeber that busways tend to not improve journey times massively over regular buses as the most congested areas tend not to get new busways. The argument for buses over trains 10 years ago was that trains could not reach the city centre while buses could. However the majority of skilled employment in Cambridge is or will be within a reasonable walking distance of a rail station with the construction of Cambridge South. Cambourne is projected to get a busway anyway and this is an important link, filling a hole in the UK rail network and busways can't be used by freight trains. The rail link allows for many loger distance combinations which would be impossible for a busway. However efficencies need to be made on the plans such as six tracking the Bedford approach. Furthermore any Cambridge transport solution needs rail links to Haverhill and Wisbech as they are largeish deprived towns which would be in a far better state if commuting to cambridge from them was a reasonable proposition.

Bit in bold - there are threads on Wisbech - and the benefits case for that one was truly appalling.

Something like 90% of the benefits could be achieved by simply running a second train per hour to March. And that doesn't need a dozen miles of new track or have a bill of £ 600m attached to it.


 

daodao

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their relocation was from Cheshire - Radnor Park, just outside Alderley Edge to be precise.
To be pedantic, the site from which Astra Zeneca (AZ) relocated is actually called Alderley Park. [It is an affluent area, with other employment opportunities, and AZ have retained a manufacturing plant at Hurdsfield, Macclesfield, so the effect on the local economy has not been disastrous.]

On your general premise, I broadly agree. It is disappointing that there are so many unrealistic posters on this thread who are unable to accept that EWR east of Bedford is not value-for-money, and that the prospect of it being built any time soon in the current financial climate is remote.
 
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A0

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To be pedantic, the site from which Astra Zeneca (AZ) relocated is actually called Alderley Park. [It is an affluent area, with other employment opportunities, and AZ have retained a manufacturing plant at Hurdsfield, Macclesfield, so the effect on the local economy has not been disastrous.]

2000 jobs, 80% of which were highly skilled scientific jobs were relocated over 150 miles south. They were there because AZ was there - apart from the Petro Chem industry on the Wirral, what other large scientific companies are in that area ?

It was 2000 people who's lives were uprooted. For those who moved it may have meant leaving family, friends, children being moved from schools and so on.

I suspect the impact on the local economy was rather more than you'd like to pretend.
 

A0

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Why do you read reducing London centricity as companies moving away from London?

Instead of increasing *growth* in areas outside of London?

Because companies who want to be London based will be.

And the development at Cambridge is science led, not the kind of companies you see in the City or Central London. For example GSK's largest site in the London area is at Brentford in West London. If they were to decamp to Cambridge there would be a swathe of people who would either lose their job, have a long commute or be faced with a 100+ mile relocation as AZ's people did.

That's the reality, the jobs Cambridge has attracted haven't been from London, they've been from other places, like Cheshire.
 

bspahh

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Because companies who want to be London based will be.

And the development at Cambridge is science led, not the kind of companies you see in the City or Central London. For example GSK's largest site in the London area is at Brentford in West London. If they were to decamp to Cambridge there would be a swathe of people who would either lose their job, have a long commute or be faced with a 100+ mile relocation as AZ's people did.

That's the reality, the jobs Cambridge has attracted haven't been from London, they've been from other places, like Cheshire.
Some AstraZeneca people moved from Alderley Park to Cambridge. Quite a lot didn't move, so there are a lot of new hires in Cambridge. There are now new companies at the Alderley Park site, so the lab space there is pretty full again.

Merck are building a new drug discovery site across the road from Kings Cross.

I don't see that GSK will move to Cambridge, as Stevenage site is already in the Cambridge travel to work area.

Oxford is not in the in the Cambridge travel to work area. East West Rail could be a bridge between these.
 

A0

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Oxford is not in the in the Cambridge travel to work area. East West Rail could be a bridge between these.

Nor are Nottingham or Lincoln, yet they're a similar distance from Cambridge to Oxford and they already have rail links albeit with one change at Peterboro or Ely.
 

bspahh

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Nor are Nottingham or Lincoln, yet they're a similar distance from Cambridge to Oxford and they already have rail links albeit with one change at Peterboro or Ely.
Cambridge and Oxford are hubs for science and technology companies. Lincoln isn't one. Nottingham has a few drug discovery companies. I don't know about the technology sector around Nottingham.

Cambridge and Oxford attract investment and staff from abroad. That grows the overall UK economy, which gives the Treasury more cash to spend. Moving investment and staff around the UK helps some local economies, and that helps to win seats in those areas, but it reduces the size of the overall UK economy.

Investing in the line from Bedford to Cambridge, will only have a positive effect on the economy over the long term, so I am not holding my breath, for the current government to spend much money right now. However, I do think that it would be a good idea.
 

A0

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Cambridge and Oxford are hubs for science and technology companies. Lincoln isn't one. Nottingham has a few drug discovery companies. I don't know about the technology sector around Nottingham.

Cambridge and Oxford attract investment and staff from abroad. That grows the overall UK economy, which gives the Treasury more cash to spend. Moving investment and staff around the UK helps some local economies, and that helps to win seats in those areas, but it reduces the size of the overall UK economy.

Investing in the line from Bedford to Cambridge, will only have a positive effect on the economy over the long term, so I am not holding my breath, for the current government to spend much money right now. However, I do think that it would be a good idea.

Nottingham absolutely *is* a tech hub - and its university is one of the Top 10 for Computer Science in the UK.

Add in Nottingham has an established pharma industry as well.
 

Magdalia

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Yes EWR will be able to do Cambourne to Cambridge (4tph planned I believe) and St Neots/Sandy too.
Ely, Royston and Audley End already have 4tph to Cambridge. EWR will need 4tph into Cambridge too, and long trains.
companies aren't relocating from London to Cambridge - the big one which everyone likes to cite was Astra Zeneca, and their relocation was from Cheshire - Radnor Park, just outside Alderley Edge to be precise.
Relocation is not the most significant part of this. Much of AZ's expansion in Cambridge, for example, is new stuff not relocation of existing work. And other new tech and life science businesses are starting up and growing all the time.
Cambridge and Oxford attract investment and staff from abroad. That grows the overall UK economy, which gives the Treasury more cash to spend. Moving investment and staff around the UK helps some local economies, and that helps to win seats in those areas, but it reduces the size of the overall UK economy.
Absolutely. It is the new growth that matters and that's what EWR facilitates. Most of the traffic on EWR will be from houses that haven't been built yet to and between businesses that don't exist yet.

The hospitals on the Cambridge Biomedical Campus site are also important. By 2030 there will be five, three of them regional hospitals. It will be impossible to get enough staff for five hospitals without EWR.

Furthermore any Cambridge transport solution needs rail links to Haverhill and Wisbech as they are largeish deprived towns which would be in a far better state if commuting to cambridge from them was a reasonable proposition.
Haverhill will get at least a busway, though there is a bit of support for reinstating heavy rail, mainly because a busway can't use the old railway through Stapleford and Shelford. Traffic is already growing: villages on the Haverhill-Cambridge route are beginning to struggle with on street parking by commuters who are driving part way then getting the bus into Cambridge.

Wisbech is tricky because it is a long way from Cambridge, the roads are mostly dire (apart from the A47 to Kings Lynn) and it is expensive to build anything new in the Fens. A significant chunk of the St Ives busway traffic is people from the Wisbech area doing Park and Ride, it is currently the least worst option for getting from Wisbech to Cambridge. What Wisbech actually needs is a decent road/bus link to the Kings Lynn-Cambridge railway at Downham Market or Watlington.
 

Brubulus

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Ely, Royston and Audley End already have 4tph to Cambridge. EWR will need 4tph into Cambridge too, and long trains.

Relocation is not the most significant part of this. Much of AZ's expansion in Cambridge, for example, is new stuff not relocation of existing work. And other new tech and life science businesses are starting up and growing all the time.

Absolutely. It is the new growth that matters and that's what EWR facilitates. Most of the traffic on EWR will be from houses that haven't been built yet to and between businesses that don't exist yet.

The hospitals on the Cambridge Biomedical Campus site are also important. By 2030 there will be five, three of them regional hospitals. It will be impossible to get enough staff for five hospitals without EWR.


Haverhill will get at least a busway, though there is a bit of support for reinstating heavy rail, mainly because a busway can't use the old railway through Stapleford and Shelford. Traffic is already growing: villages on the Haverhill-Cambridge route are beginning to struggle with on street parking by commuters who are driving part way then getting the bus into Cambridge.

Wisbech is tricky because it is a long way from Cambridge, the roads are mostly dire (apart from the A47 to Kings Lynn) and it is expensive to build anything new in the Fens. A significant chunk of the St Ives busway traffic is people from the Wisbech area doing Park and Ride, it is currently the least worst option for getting from Wisbech to Cambridge. What Wisbech actually needs is a decent road/bus link to the Kings Lynn-Cambridge railway at Downham Market or Watlington.
A new Wisbech route could be a testbed for innovation in cheap construction of new branchlines. My view is that a tram-train style solution is best, where a 153 like unit (with very low axle loadings), is coupled behind the XC service to March at which point it continues to Wisbech along a route where there simply been vegetation clearance and the relaying of a basic new track, along with an A47 bridge and basic strengthening of some of the bridges. The hard infarstructure should not cost more than £50M at most, which in rail terms is not that much and even then it should provide valuable experience for similar branch reopenings. I used to live near Haverhill and the A1307 is a joke at peak times to the point where it was often over an hour's drive to cambridge. The current plan seems to simply involve a slightly glorified park and ride linking to a busway which mostly parralells the rail route into Cambridge South.

I also feel that a good way to build new railway lines (with EWR being a test for this model) is to have developers build them where standards are agreed in advance (no more than a certain percentage of houses can be built before rail link opens) but the developer builds it in lieu of their contributions to the council for a very large devlopments. The council would probably still have to pay the developer, but I have a feeling they could do it cheaper than the UK government given their economies of scale in general construction. EWR is more than just a commuter route, as it properly links the east and west of england and I think we may see some very interesting routes using it in the future along with being a vital commuter link into Cambridge.
 

MarkyT

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Wisbech is tricky because it is a long way from Cambridge, the roads are mostly dire (apart from the A47 to Kings Lynn) and it is expensive to build anything new in the Fens. A significant chunk of the St Ives busway traffic is people from the Wisbech area doing Park and Ride, it is currently the least worst option for getting from Wisbech to Cambridge. What Wisbech actually needs is a decent road/bus link to the Kings Lynn-Cambridge railway at Downham Market or Watlington.
The best way is via Kings Lynn itself using Firstbus Excel B or C which together run frequently, and also early and late in the day. They all stop at the railway station too. There's a route 60 to Downham Market from Wisbech via Outwell offered by local operator Go to Town and it stops by the station but it seems to do just two round trips a day that far out on M-F, college days only, early morning and early evening, so probably fairly useless for rail connections. Stagecoach East 46 Wisbech to March doesn't get going until 10:15 from Wisbech with only 5 or 6 journeys a day finishing early. At March, it goes nowhere near the railway station, with the nearest stop being well over a km away. I agree connecting with the Kings Lynn line would be better for most as that gives both Cambridge access and the fastest direct journeys to London.
 

A0

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Ely, Royston and Audley End already have 4tph to Cambridge. EWR will need 4tph into Cambridge too, and long trains.

Ely, Royston, Audley also have 4tph to London - it just happens Cambridge is the other end of the line for 2 of those.
Relocation is not the most significant part of this. Much of AZ's expansion in Cambridge, for example, is new stuff not relocation of existing work. And other new tech and life science businesses are starting up and growing all the time.
AZ employ 4000 people at Cambridge of which 2000 were relocations from Alderley Edge.

Absolutely. It is the new growth that matters and that's what EWR facilitates. Most of the traffic on EWR will be from houses that haven't been built yet to and between businesses that don't exist yet.

The hospitals on the Cambridge Biomedical Campus site are also important. By 2030 there will be five, three of them regional hospitals. It will be impossible to get enough staff for five hospitals without EWR.

Most of those houses will be built in a radius of under 20 miles - so it doesn't need EWR and a new busway could reasonably be an option.

Haverhill will get at least a busway, though there is a bit of support for reinstating heavy rail, mainly because a busway can't use the old railway through Stapleford and Shelford. Traffic is already growing: villages on the Haverhill-Cambridge route are beginning to struggle with on street parking by commuters who are driving part way then getting the bus into Cambridge.

Who is "supporting" a heavy rail reinstatement from Haverhill - which let it not be forgotten is over the border in Suffolk? And I doubt there are the paths to get more trains into Cambridge from where the Haverhill line entered - which was Shelford on the West Anglia mainline.

Wisbech is tricky because it is a long way from Cambridge, the roads are mostly dire (apart from the A47 to Kings Lynn) and it is expensive to build anything new in the Fens. A significant chunk of the St Ives busway traffic is people from the Wisbech area doing Park and Ride, it is currently the least worst option for getting from Wisbech to Cambridge. What Wisbech actually needs is a decent road/bus link to the Kings Lynn-Cambridge railway at Downham Market or Watlington.

Bit in bold - that I *don't* believe. Wisbech - St Ives is 32 miles and takes about 45 minutes to drive. Are you seriously suggesting people from Wisbech are doing that to get the bus into Cambridge? I don't believe you. Possibly some are driving to the Milton Park & Ride - that's pretty much the same distance from Wisbech but puts you on the edge of Cambridge. But driving 35 miles to St Ives to pick up the busway? No chance.

They are *far* more likely to drive to Downham Market station 13 miles / 20 mins away and get the train to Cambridge.
 

A0

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A new Wisbech route could be a testbed for innovation in cheap construction of new branchlines. My view is that a tram-train style solution is best, where a 153 like unit (with very low axle loadings), is coupled behind the XC service to March at which point it continues to Wisbech along a route where there simply been vegetation clearance and the relaying of a basic new track, along with an A47 bridge and basic strengthening of some of the bridges. The hard infarstructure should not cost more than £50M at most, which in rail terms is not that much and even then it should provide valuable experience for similar branch reopenings. I used to live near Haverhill and the A1307 is a joke at peak times to the point where it was often over an hour's drive to cambridge. The current plan seems to simply involve a slightly glorified park and ride linking to a busway which mostly parralells the rail route into Cambridge South.

I also feel that a good way to build new railway lines (with EWR being a test for this model) is to have developers build them where standards are agreed in advance (no more than a certain percentage of houses can be built before rail link opens) but the developer builds it in lieu of their contributions to the council for a very large devlopments. The council would probably still have to pay the developer, but I have a feeling they could do it cheaper than the UK government given their economies of scale in general construction. EWR is more than just a commuter route, as it properly links the east and west of england and I think we may see some very interesting routes using it in the future along with being a vital commuter link into Cambridge.

Bit in Bold - when he's finished rolling on the floor laughing, I hope @Bald Rick will come along and comment about your £50m estimate.......
 

Magdalia

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Ely, Royston, Audley also have 4tph to London - it just happens Cambridge is the other end of the line for 2 of those.
Wrong. Ely and Audley End have 2 tph to London (and 2 tph to Stansted Airport). And Royston effectively has 2tph to London because the slow trains are very slow.
Wisbech - St Ives is 32 miles and takes about 45 minutes to drive. Are you seriously suggesting people from Wisbech are doing that to get the bus into Cambridge?
Yes, I know people who do it. The A141 from Guyhirn to Huntingdon is easily the best north south route across the Fens, especially the March-Chatteris section which is on the old railway line.
AZ employ 4000 people at Cambridge of which 2000 were relocations from Alderley Edge.
So that's 2000 people not relocated from Alderley Edge already, and, as AZ grows, there will be more.

Who is "supporting" a heavy rail reinstatement from Haverhill - which let it not be forgotten is over the border in Suffolk? And I doubt there are the paths to get more trains into Cambridge from where the Haverhill line entered - which was Shelford on the West Anglia mainline.
Mainly people in Stapleford and Shelford who don't want a busway going round the east side of the villages.

I do know where the Haverhill line joined the main line from Liverpool Street. If EWR is built, then there will be paths for trains from Haverhill because Shepreth Branch Junction-Cambridge will be 4 tracks.

I also know that Haverhill is in Suffolk. I don't see that as being significant. Audley End/Saffron Walden are in Essex and Royston is in Hertfordshire. So what?
 
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cle

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Why do you read reducing London centricity as companies moving away from London?

Instead of increasing *growth* in areas and outside of London?
Thank you. My exact point - nothing to do with relocation or detraction from London - look it up - but about supporting the notion and growth of non-London opportunities and employment/economic hubs. Links like this exacerbate and support that phenomenon.

A0wen - I don’t know if you willingly misinterpreted this - looking at your responses since, it’s a little rabid abd clearly you have vehement skin in this game - but two quick points:

4tph is in fact what has been assume for the Bedford to Cambridge stretch. Not sure what the laughing is for.

EWR would obviously provide regional connections and travel opportunities too. You can’t pick strawmen examples to deny this. Firstly many current options are only 1tph (eg the Cambridge/Peterborough to Brum route as a connector) - secondly there are other pairs I can name which are much better by rail. Anywhere to Bicester. Norwich to MK? Oxford to Luton/AP? It’s not worth going down that rabbit hole.

And finally, go join a bus forum if you genuinely think trains are not an elevated option which attract new users. It’s debunked endlessly. Buses are slow, unpleasant and for local journeys. And not enticing for the higher earners / fare payers / tech job people we’re discussing. The competition is the car, and you are ostensibly its biggest advocate here.
 

A0

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Messages
7,751
Thank you. My exact point - nothing to do with relocation or detraction from London - look it up - but about supporting the notion and growth of non-London opportunities and employment/economic hubs. Links like this exacerbate and support that phenomenon.

A0wen - I don’t know if you willingly misinterpreted this - looking at your responses since, it’s a little rabid abd clearly you have vehement skin in this game - but two quick points:

4tph is in fact what has been assume for the Bedford to Cambridge stretch. Not sure what the laughing is for.

EWR would obviously provide regional connections and travel opportunities too. You can’t pick strawmen examples to deny this. Firstly many current options are only 1tph (eg the Cambridge/Peterborough to Brum route as a connector) - secondly there are other pairs I can name which are much better by rail. Anywhere to Bicester. Norwich to MK? Oxford to Luton/AP? It’s not worth going down that rabbit hole.

And finally, go join a bus forum if you genuinely think trains are not an elevated option which attract new users. It’s debunked endlessly. Buses are slow, unpleasant and for local journeys. And not enticing for the higher earners / fare payers / tech job people we’re discussing. The competition is the car, and you are ostensibly its biggest advocate here.
BIB

Except the busway has done just that. And high paid people use buses in London and many other cities around the world.
 

fishwomp

Member
Joined
5 Jan 2020
Messages
895
Location
milton keynes
[..]
In over 20 years of working in the Milton Keynes area I've *never* come across such a split where one person is working in the Oxford area and the other in the Cambridge area. You need to be realistic.
[..]

So, you work in MK, and have never met people living in MK who work in OXF and CBG? That _is_ the point. The lack of a good transport option is one major reason why no (or few) couples would choose to live in MK to do this - it's a hard and unreliable hour by car to either destination from MK..

Then I realized you're actually describing my situation.. Live in Oxford, partner works in Oxford, my office is in Cambridge. Pre-covid I would do the journey once or twice a month - and half the trips driving, half by train - they were long days. I've cut back and go there far less now, but in any event, will have retired before the line reopens.

The Varsity Line shut a year before man stepped foot on the moon, and humans will be back there (2024) and perhaps have reached Mars (late 2030s, early 2040s) before the trains from Oxford to Cambridge return given current plans.
 

A0

On Moderation
Joined
19 Jan 2008
Messages
7,751
Thank you. My exact point - nothing to do with relocation or detraction from London - look it up - but about supporting the notion and growth of non-London opportunities and employment/economic hubs. Links like this exacerbate and support that phenomenon.

A0wen - I don’t know if you willingly misinterpreted this - looking at your responses since, it’s a little rabid abd clearly you have vehement skin in this game - but two quick points:

Overinflating the Cambridge area isn't the answer. We've already seen 2000 high skill jobs relocated from the North West to the Cambridge area. I'll be the first to admit that part of Cheshire / South Manchester is reasonably prosperous, but losing high quality jobs has a knock on effect, at precisely the time when economic growth is needed across the country, not by creating another hotspot in the south east.

Concreting over a swathe of East Anglia / South Midlands isn't the answer.

4tph is in fact what has been assume for the Bedford to Cambridge stretch. Not sure what the laughing is for.

I suspect that was dome to make the BCR numbers add up, because it makes precisely no sense. You're looking realistically at 2tph max between Miltin Keynes and Oxford for which there is likely to be better demand, yet 4tph between Bedford and Cambridge, where there isn't?

EWR would obviously provide regional connections and travel opportunities too. You can’t pick strawmen examples to deny this. Firstly many current options are only 1tph (eg the Cambridge/Peterborough to Brum route as a connector) - secondly there are other pairs I can name which are much better by rail. Anywhere to Bicester. Norwich to MK? Oxford to Luton/AP? It’s not worth going down that rabbit hole.

Sorting out Ely would be a *far* better use of money - it would enable more freight from Felixstowe and enable more passenger trains from all directions - that's where the focus should be.
 
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