EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[317 forever]

I think the Lib Dems will make a big comeback and sooner or later the Labour party will realise they will never win a GE under Corbyn and elect a more centre-left leader.

To some extent the LibDems are already making a comeback. In addition to winning the Richmond Park by-election, their number of votes has risen in all recent by-elections. Even in last year's local elections which were before the EU referendum, they gained around 30 seats when the Conservatives and Labour lost seats.

 

[317 forever]

The problem is, while what you say is true, that argument was never going to work, it doesn't make it any less true. Or at least specifically the idea that these people could only see things improve because of Brexit is insane. Especially in areas that get a large amount of EU funding but are often ignored by Westminster (Cornwall, South Wales, some bits of North England) then there is a very real possibility that those who voted Brexit because of various issues will actually see their lives get worse because of it.

This was highlighted in a newspaper earlier this week, indicating that the worst-hit areas are likely to be Wales & the east Midlands, which largely voted Leave.

 

[317 forever]

What a waste of time the last 9 months have been.

It has literally taken the government 9 months to even give birth to Brexit.

 

[Howardh]

If anything, the country could unite behind a Soft Brexit. The 48% who voted Remain would prefer this to a Hard Brexit. Suppose just 1 in 20 Leave voters would prefer a Soft Brexit, this takes us Soft Brexiteers up to 50.6%.

So, it beats me how Theresa thinks she can unite the country behind a Hard Brexit.

I've said that all along. The country won't be united after a hard Brexit, so a soft one ticks all the boxes. If hard-liners complain they haven't a leg to stand on; they got exactly what they voted for - and if they aren't happy will they call for a second referendum that they don't want?

I hoped, though, that by now I'd be reading about us sliding seamlessly into EFTA and the EEA with the subject of immigration "all them foreigners taking us jobs" being an agreement that employers can put UK first, EEA/EU second and everyone else last in the queue. I think the EU would allow that if pressed; it still keeps FoM but with sensible limitations.

 

[Howardh]

It has literally taken the government 9 months to even give birth to Brexit.

Ah, on June 23 I knew we'd all been (insert naughty word -ed) without protection!!

 

[317 forever]

We're on the same page here. The question asked in the referendum was 'Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?'

There is nothing in that which requires the Government to pursue either a 'Hard' or 'Soft' Brexit so the path being taken is entirely driven by her political considerations or ideology.

Indeed, Theresa is probably secretly bothered at the potential of any Tory MPs and cheap newspapers asking why she was being "soft on Europe".:mad:

 

[317 forever]

I've said that all along. The country won't be united after a hard Brexit, so a soft one ticks all the boxes. If hard-liners complain they haven't a leg to stand on; they got exactly what they voted for - and if they aren't happy will they call for a second referendum that they don't want?

I hoped, though, that by now I'd be reading about us sliding seamlessly into EFTA and the EEA with the subject of immigration "all them foreigners taking us jobs" being an agreement that employers can put UK first, EEA/EU second and everyone else last in the queue. I think the EU would allow that if pressed; it still keeps FoM but with sensible limitations.

Indeed, the EFTA and EEA would enable to keep some of the good within our trading arrangements with the EU. With Thatcher as the Iron Lady having taken us into the Single Market but May taking us out, I have heard her described as the Irony Lady. :roll:

 

[meridian2]

While this made it politically necessary for Theresa to implement Brexit, it did not give her a mandate for such a hard Brexit. I no longer trust her to be Europhile like you described her above.

I don't know what hard or soft Brexit means. The referendum was to be in or out of the EU. From that point hard or soft was in the hands of the EU. The time for those decisions was when the EU could have negotiated free movement of labour with Cameron, rather than free movement of people. It was the kind of shibboleth that raised questions about the true motives within Brussels.

 

[northwichcat]

Ah, on June 23 I knew we'd all been (insert naughty word -ed) without protection!!

It was Farage and he was so drunk he could remember who the woman was. May and Leadsome were also both so drunk they couldn't remember anything from that day, until someone told Leadsome she was at church drinking the altar wine, which meant May was with Farage.

 

[VauxhallandI]

I don't know what hard or soft Brexit means. The referendum was to be in or out of the EU. From that point hard or soft was in the hands of the EU. The time for those decisions was when the EU could have negotiated free movement of labour with Cameron, rather than free movement of people. It was the kind of shibboleth that raised questions about the true motives within Brussels.

You were happy to vote not knowing what you were getting and it now seems like you are saying it's down to the EU what you get?

Getting your excuses lined up then?

I told the nasty EU to **** off and they didn't thank me for it? Boo hoo, what is it they say? "Get over it?"

 

[Barn]

You were happy to vote not knowing what you were getting and it now seems like you are saying it's down to the EU what you get?

Getting your excuses lined up then?

I told the nasty EU to **** off and they didn't thank me for it? Boo hoo, what is it they say? "Get over it?"

Don't be so rude.

The vote was very clear: we voted to leave the EU. The whole soft Brexit, shades of grey thing was invented by media commentators. It's just not true to say people didn't understand what the word "leave" meant. It's arrogant, as is assuming that your particular preferred variety of softness is available from our European partners.

 

[najaB]

The vote was very clear: we voted to leave the EU. The whole soft Brexit, shades of grey thing was invented by media commentators.

Norway and Brazil are both outside the EU but their relationship with the EU is quite different.

It simply isn't true to say that 'Leave the EU' has a single, unambiguous meaning.

 

[dosxuk]

The vote was very clear: we voted to leave the EU. The whole soft Brexit, shades of grey thing was invented by media commentators.

Here's a quote from our Foreign Secretary, writing in the days after the referendum result:-

I cannot stress too much that Britain is part of Europe, and always will be. There will still be intense and intensifying European cooperation and partnership in a huge number of fields: the arts, the sciences, the universities, and on improving the environment. EU citizens living in this country will have their rights fully protected, and the same goes for British citizens living in the EU.

British people will still be able to go and work in the EU; to live; to travel; to study; to buy homes and to settle down. As the German equivalent of the CBI – the BDI – has very sensibly reminded us, there will continue to be free trade, and access to the single market. Britain is and always will be a great European power, offering top-table opinions and giving leadership on everything from foreign policy to defence to counter-terrorism and intelligence-sharing – all the things we need to do together to make our world safer.

The only change – and it will not come in any great rush – is that the UK will extricate itself from the EU’s extraordinary and opaque system of legislation: the vast and growing corpus of law enacted by a European Court of Justice from which there can be no appeal. This will bring not threats, but golden opportunities for this country – to pass laws and set taxes according to the needs of the UK.

So, in the past 9 months, we've gone from having full access to the single market, a free trade agreement, free movement for Brits to the EU, rights of EU citizens in the UK being guaranteed and getting out of the control of the ECJ - to (at best!) - no access to the single market, a limited free trade agreement for certain areas, no free movement for Brits, rights of EU citizens being gambled with and the ECJ being in charge for at least the next 5 years.

This is the difference between so-called "soft" Brexit and "hard" Brexit. The promises and limits to the departure that were coming from the Leave groups, compared to the "if we can't have our cake and eat it, we're taking our ball and going home" strategy we seem to have fallen into. What was being described 9 months ago as the absolute-worst-case-scenario is now being talked up as it's the best thing since sliced bread, and if that doesn't work out, not to worry, we have a worse-than-the-worst-case-scenario to use as a negotiating tactic!

 

[Barn]

Norway and Brazil are both outside the EU but their relationship with the EU is quite different.

It simply isn't true to say that 'Leave the EU' has a single, unambiguous meaning.

Norway's position of "most of the way in" is derived from an inchoate attempt by its politicians to join the EU which was rebuffed by the population. It is effectively "stuck in the waiting room", applying laws passed down from an organisation its populace still shows no appetite to join.

It is a slightly surreal situation, completely unsuited to the UK and, most relevant to the current discussion, would be a completely irrational response for any Government to a "Leave" vote. It simply doesn't make any sense: it would be almost Wednesbury unreasonable.

However, what both Norway and Brazil have in common is that they are third-party countries, outside of the institutions of the EU, which have formed diplomatic / trade / contractual relationships of varying strengths with the EU from the outside. That is what we are trying to do too.

 

[Barn]

Here's a quote from our Foreign Secretary, writing in the days after the referendum result:-


So, in the past 9 months, we've gone from having full access to the single market, a free trade agreement, free movement for Brits to the EU, rights of EU citizens in the UK being guaranteed and getting out of the control of the ECJ - to (at best!) - no access to the single market, a limited free trade agreement for certain areas, no free movement for Brits, rights of EU citizens being gambled with and the ECJ being in charge for at least the next 5 years.

This is the difference between so-called "soft" Brexit and "hard" Brexit. The promises and limits to the departure that were coming from the Leave groups, compared to the "if we can't have our cake and eat it, we're taking our ball and going home" strategy we seem to have fallen into. What was being described 9 months ago as the absolute-worst-case-scenario is now being talked up as it's the best thing since sliced bread, and if that doesn't work out, not to worry, we have a worse-than-the-worst-case-scenario to use as a negotiating tactic!

The neogtiation hasn't started yet. I think you'll be pleasantly surprised at where we end up.

I'm amazed that people are surprised that both sides are setting out strong positions at the outset of talks - UK optimistic, EU strict. It's how negotiations have always worked and always will.

The difference, as we approach the crunch point, is that the UK now also has to demonstrate that it isn't desperate for a deal, to counter nonsense like this Gibraltar clause.

 

[dosxuk]

The neogtiation hasn't started yet. I think you'll be pleasantly surprised at where we end up.

Full members after our negotiating team completely mess things up and decide to throw in the towel?

I'm amazed that people are surprised that both sides are setting out strong positions at the outset of talks - UK optimistic, EU strict. It's how negotiations have always worked and always will.

You might have a point if we were still talking about full access to the single market, full freedom of movement for UK citizens and EU workers, and only getting rid of a few bits we don't like. But we're not. We're hoping we'll be able to negotiate a bit of free trade for industries that will leave the UK if we don't get that deal, and not have to bring all our pensioners back from the Costa's. And if that's an optimistic position, I dread to think what our realistic position is... Considering how well our initial attempts at negotiation have gone (u-turns, corrections and apologies for pretty much every single one of them), I think we're going to be needing that realistic one pretty soon.

 

[Barn]

You might have a point if we were still talking about full access to the single market, full freedom of movement for UK citizens and EU workers, and only getting rid of a few bits we don't like. But we're not. We're hoping we'll be able to negotiate a bit of free trade for industries that will leave the UK if we don't get that deal, and not have to bring all our pensioners back from the Costa's. And if that's an optimistic position, I dread to think what our realistic position is... Considering how well our initial attempts at negotiation have gone (u-turns, corrections and apologies for pretty much every single one of them), I think we're going to be needing that realistic one pretty soon.

No, our optimistic case is "a comprehensive and ambitious free trade deal, with full access for our businesses to trade with and operate within the single market".

As for movement of workers (and I use that term deliberately), I do think that UKIP supporters will end up more disappointed than you will. We'll have to see.

 

[Steveman]

I don't know what hard or soft Brexit means. The referendum was to be in or out of the EU. From that point hard or soft was in the hands of the EU. The time for those decisions was when the EU could have negotiated free movement of labour with Cameron, rather than free movement of people. It was the kind of shibboleth that raised questions about the true motives within Brussels.

I know, this hard and soft description is a product of the distraught, wobbling and wibbling remainers who to a man don't accept the referendum result and have no interest in democracy - when it goes the wrong way.

 

[VauxhallandI]

Don't be so rude.

The vote was very clear: we voted to leave the EU. The whole soft Brexit, shades of grey thing was invented by media commentators. It's just not true to say people didn't understand what the word "leave" meant. It's arrogant, as is assuming that your particular preferred variety of softness is available from our European partners.

Do you speak for all leave voters?

I'm grabbing the old popcorn and will enjoy watching some of you wallowing in the will of the people.

They'll be more than rudeness to contend with.

 

[VauxhallandI]

I know, this hard and soft description is a product of the distraught, wobbling and wibbling remainers who to a man don't accept the referendum result and have no interest in democracy - when it goes the wrong way.

Nothing like the moans of derision when the democracy of the House of Lords kicked in then?

Enemies of the people?

Laughable

 

[Barn]

Do you speak for all leave voters?

I'm grabbing the old popcorn and will enjoy watching some of you wallowing in the will of the people.

They'll be more than rudeness to contend with.

The one and only thing that makes me doubt Brexit is the fact that we seem to have somewhat lost the old Blitz spirit. Not only that we seem to have developed a sizeable chunk of the population which is not just unpatriotic but which actually revels in the prospect of difficulty for their country. Luckily they seem to be noisier online than in real life.

 

[GatwickDepress]

The one and only thing that makes me doubt Brexit is the fact that we seem to have somewhat lost the old Blitz spirit. Not only that we seem to have developed a sizeable chunk of the population which is not just unpatriotic but which actually revels in the prospect of difficulty for their country. Luckily they seem to be noisier online than in real life.

Unpatriotic? What disgusting language to use.

This is what's worrying me. That differing opinions and political disagreements during the exit from the EU will be shot down as "unpatriotic" and "treasonous". That free speech will only be tolerated if it's the sort of speech Leavers want to hear.

 

[VauxhallandI]

The one and only thing that makes me doubt Brexit is the fact that we seem to have somewhat lost the old Blitz spirit. Not only that we seem to have developed a sizeable chunk of the population which is not just unpatriotic but which actually revels in the prospect of difficulty for their country. Luckily they seem to be noisier online than in real life.

What blitz spirit?

Are you telling you have blitz spirit?

You're an insult to anyone who took part in the war.

Unpatriotic? Hiding behind bull**** statements like that, I don't want to stand next to you in a queue at the shops never mind in some made up battle in your head. Did you go to Germany to watch the football by any chance.

What a sad time we live in, maybe we need a war to so we can exactly how cocky these chest beating fools are.

 

[AlterEgo]

The one and only thing that makes me doubt Brexit is the fact that we seem to have somewhat lost the old Blitz spirit. Not only that we seem to have developed a sizeable chunk of the population which is not just unpatriotic but which actually revels in the prospect of difficulty for their country. Luckily they seem to be noisier online than in real life.

Well, if we have to invoke the Blitz spirit to make a go of Brexit, it's quite telling, isn't it?

 

[AlterEgo]

What blitz spirit?

Are you telling you have blitz spirit?

You're an insult to anyone who took part in the war.

Unpatriotic? Hiding behind bull**** statements like that, I don't want to stand next to you in a queue at the shops never mind in some made up battle in your head. Did you go to Germany to watch the football by any chance.

What a sad time we live in, maybe we need a war to so we can exactly how cocky these chest beating fools are.

Let's not invoke the war. WWII continues to define Britain, to our immense discredit. Nearly everyone else has moved on.

 

[Barn]

Unpatriotic? What disgusting language to use.

This is what's worrying me. That differing opinions and political disagreements during the exit from the EU will be shot down as "unpatriotic" and "treasonous". That free speech will only be tolerated if it's the sort of speech Leavers want to hear.

No, there are plenty of patriotic remain supporters who voted that way because they considered it best for their country, including, to be honest, a majority of the people I know.

The unpatriotic language and sentiment I complain of is when people talk of "grabbing popcorn" and wishing that we get a bad deal "just to show us", etc.

 

[Barn]

Well, if we have to invoke the Blitz spirit to make a go of Brexit, it's quite telling, isn't it?

Nobody is denying it's a major event in our history.

 

[meridian2]

Let's not invoke the war. WWII continues to define Britain, to our immense discredit. Nearly everyone else has moved on.

That's a little unfair. If it weren't for The Few in 1940 there's an excellent chance Britain and the rest of Europe would still be under Nazi rule 77 years later. Most of the Remain argument has been based on economics, and the EU ideological element has been ignored or lauded. If the European Union was still the Common Market the economic case would be the only debate but it isn't, it's a federalist club with expansionist goals, particularly in the East. That pointing those things out marks one down as a xenophobe, scaremonger or financially suicidal does not mean they aren't true.

The EU could have negotiated the free movement of Labour without affecting its mandate one iota. The reason it didn't is it's aiming for a completely permeable state from the Atlantic to the Black Sea. I think it'll end in tears.

 

[AlterEgo]

Nobody is denying it's a major event in our history.

So what?

If you think we are going to need the Blitz spirit to manage our country without the EU, then I think that's also pessimistic.

It's really tiresome to see people invoke the war, because one of the great fallacies of WWII was that people who participated (and by that I mean every British person, soldier and civilian) had some sort of special character trait which is no longer present in modern society.

 

[Barn]

So what?

If you think we are going to need the Blitz spirit to manage our country without the EU, then I think that's also pessimistic.

It's not managing without the EU that's the concern, it's the process of withdrawal and of rediscovering our national vocation. We need not to go into a tailspin whenever any sort of negative story crops up out of the negotiation. We will have a lot thrown at us over the next two years - it has started already with Gibraltar - and we need to pull together as a country to withstand it.

I happen to think that we have lost something of our national stoicism over the years. It does show itself, however, in response to tragedies such as the recent Westminster attacks.

Just to be clear, it's perfectly patriotic to have voted remain. It's even patriotic to take the Lib Dem stance and hope that Brexit may be somehow avoided. It's downright unpatriotic (almost by definition) to revel in any difficulty we face, to actually hope for a bad outcome so that leavers' arguments aren't vindicated.