EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[Groningen]

There are rumours that the final vote in parlement will be on March 26, 2019. Also Jacob Rees-Mogg seems to be asking the Irish not to sabotage the Brexit with their behavior. I will have to look in the newspaper, but think that i will find it.

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

There are rumours that the final vote in parlement will be on March 26, 2019. Also Jacob Rees-Mogg seems to be asking the Irish not to sabotage the Brexit with their behavior. I will have to look in the newspaper, but think that i will find it.

It's not just the Irish, there's now also the Irish lobby in the US: it was US involvement behind the scenes that helped to facilitate the GFA. Suggestions now that any UK failure to maintain the open NI/ROI border will lead to that lobby making things harder when it comes to a UK/US trade deal post-Brexit. That's on top of the talk in the US of wanting any such deal to water down current EU protections in areas such as food safety, pharmaceuticals, etc. No easy answers.

 

[alex397]

Quite possibly.

It reminds me about the whole 'Millennium Bug' story of 2000, whereby planes were literally going to fall out of the sky. It's a form of moral panic, in that people in authority want you to be worried and then believe what they say, and it's far from a new thing:

1950s - Don't let your kids watch Elvis Presley, he is corrupting them by shaking his pelvis
1960s - The Mods & Rockers are literally satanists
1980s - Satanic messages on rock singles/albums when played backwards
1980s - Oral Roberts and 'God TV'
1990s - Video games cause users to become psychotic
2010s - The rise of the 'Social Justice Warrior' and the 'callout, threaten and doxx' mentality

I would take what is being said with a big pinch of salt - yes, Brexit may well cause a few problems but in time things will settle down.

I 'cut the cable' a long time ago, and I just want the whole thing done and dusted...roll on April.

Except the Millennium Bug isn't quite as simple as that. As others have said, there was actually a lot of planning involved so the Bug didn't become a problem.

Secondly, I don't think the whole thing will be 'done and dusted' by April - it will certainly take a lot longer than that for all the ends to be tied.

I'm guessing you fear issues caused by queues of lorries? If it's not that, it's scaremongering. If it is that, then it probably isn't but mitigation is simple - keep an eye on the news, plan alternatives (as you say) and get up earlier!

Yes, there is the issue with queues of lorries, a scenario which is very likely. This could make things very messy considering the M20 cuts right through the middle of Kent. Further complications will be added with lorries heading right out of the way to Manston.

I completely understand that it might not be as bad as many are saying. But at the same time, it is very concerning considering no one knows what is going to happen. The advice to 'get up earlier' is not so simple - it will be very hard to predict what traffic will be like. Traffic in Kent is already quite unpredictable at peak times (even when looking at traffic news), so adding Brexit-related traffic into the mix will make it even more unpredictable. Also, we no longer live in times when staff and parents/pupils can just walk to their school - many live a long way from where they need to go - this is quite common in Kent too with the grammar school system (e.g. lots more kids travelling long distances). While there are many pupils who use the train to school (which I presume will not be hugely affected by Brexit), most travel by car or by bus on local roads.
Also, with 'getting up earlier' will be pointless if pupils catch the bus to school - most school buses in Kent are registered public bus services which can't just leave earlier depending on the morning's traffic news.

Where I stand with the Brexit "chaos" - I don't think it will be as bad as some people say (hence I often use the word 'could'), but at the same time I find it astonishing when some people say that nothing bad will happen (basically sticking fingers in their ears). Even if Brexit becomes a success, it would be foolish to think there won't be any complications. (this comment isn't aimed at anyone specifically).

 

[Modron]

Except the Millennium Bug isn't quite as simple as that. As others have said, there was actually a lot of planning involved so the Bug didn't become a problem.

Secondly, I don't think the whole thing will be 'done and dusted' by April - it will certainly take a lot longer than that for all the ends to be tied.




Yes, there is the issue with queues of lorries, a scenario which is very likely. This could make things very messy considering the M20 cuts right through the middle of Kent. Further complications will be added with lorries heading right out of the way to Manston.

I completely understand that it might not be as bad as many are saying. But at the same time, it is very concerning considering no one knows what is going to happen. The advice to 'get up earlier' is not so simple - it will be very hard to predict what traffic will be like. Traffic in Kent is already quite unpredictable at peak times (even when looking at traffic news), so adding Brexit-related traffic into the mix will make it even more unpredictable. Also, we no longer live in times when staff and parents/pupils can just walk to their school - many live a long way from where they need to go - this is quite common in Kent too with the grammar school system (e.g. lots more kids travelling long distances). While there are many pupils who use the train to school (which I presume will not be hugely affected by Brexit), most travel by car or by bus on local roads.
Also, with 'getting up earlier' will be pointless if pupils catch the bus to school - most school buses in Kent are registered public bus services which can't just leave earlier depending on the morning's traffic news.

Where I stand with the Brexit "chaos" - I don't think it will be as bad as some people say (hence I often use the word 'could'), but at the same time I find it astonishing when some people say that nothing bad will happen (basically sticking fingers in their ears). Even if Brexit becomes a success, it would be foolish to think there won't be any complications. (this comment isn't aimed at anyone specifically).

Possibly with Article 216.

Incidentally, just what did go into stopping the 'Millennium Bug' - you don't have to reply here (would be holding up the thread) a pm will do - if you have time.

 

[Groningen]

With a No Deal all lifestock from the UK has to be inspected in the Netherlands. There is space in Schiphol and Maastricht, but not in the harbors, because only up to 5 shipments arrive daily from the UK. So the import of horses amd cows will be impossible in the ports.

 

[mmh]

If we end up in a customs union with freedom of movement in order to keep the Irish border clear, it makes the Gibraltar one much simpler to deal with. If we end up with a manned, checkpoint heavy border in Ireland, then we'll just end up with the same there, just with less people trying to blow it up.

Freedom of movement is a red herring and has nothing to do with cross-border checks or the lack of them. I get the impression some sections of the media are happy to have people believing it does though.

 

[EM2]

Freedom of movement is a red herring and has nothing to do with cross-border checks or the lack of them. I get the impression some sections of the media are happy to have people believing it does though.

The four freedoms are the freedom of movement of goods, services, capital and workers. Accepting the free movement of one means accepting the free movement of all four. If you don't have free movement of goods, then you have checks.

 

[mmh]

The four freedoms are the freedom of movement of goods, services, capital and workers. Accepting the free movement of one means accepting the free movement of all four. If you don't have free movement of goods, then you have checks.

I know what they are.

This is another remain myth, that they are somehow indivisible. They can be and are. It is also possible to have borders with goods checks (whether or not they actually take place at the "physical" border), but not checks on people.

You're not doing, but it suits a lot of people's agendas to conflate these things.

 

[Senex]

Are the Commons just becoming more and more a pointless farce? They're certainly capable of making a great deal of noise, but they seem utterly incapable of exercising any control at all over a prime minister determined just to press on with what she wants and use sheer stubbornness to force through her policy by running out of time. We hear about this group of that group on the one side or the other getting ready to make a serious challenge, but somehow it never comes. And then you hear an interview like that of Andrea Leadsom on Today this morning where pretty well every reply was something like "The prime minister says ..." or "The prime minister wants ...", just as if she were the PR mouthpiece of an old East European "leader". Have we effectively moved without knowing it to a presidential system? (Certainly it sounds as if the other lot want to go that way too, when we see Corbyn apparently working just with his inner clique to re-write letters "forgetting" what he's agreed with one of his leading shadown cabinet members.)

PS For anyone with German, there's a splendid piece about Brexit about 14½ minutes in to this (thanks to The Guardian for the reference): https://www.zdf.de/comedy/heute-show/heute-show-vom-1-februar-2019-100.html

 

[jellybaby]

they are somehow indivisible

They are to the EU27.

 

[EM2]

I know what they are.

This is another remain myth, that they are somehow indivisible. They can be and are. It is also possible to have borders with goods checks (whether or not they actually take place at the "physical" border), but not checks on people.

You're not doing, but it suits a lot of people's agendas to conflate these things.

As far as the EU are concerned, they are indivisible. To ask or insist that they break that is to expect them to breach one of their founding principles. Why would they?

 

[Modron]

Are the Commons just becoming more and more a pointless farce? They're certainly capable of making a great deal of noise, but they seem utterly incapable of exercising any control at all over a prime minister determined just to press on with what she wants and use sheer stubbornness to force through her policy by running out of time. We hear about this group of that group on the one side or the other getting ready to make a serious challenge, but somehow it never comes. And then you hear an interview like that of Andrea Leadsom on Today this morning where pretty well every reply was something like "The prime minister says ..." or "The prime minister wants ...", just as if she were the PR mouthpiece of an old East European "leader". Have we effectively moved without knowing it to a presidential system? (Certainly it sounds as if the other lot want to go that way too, when we see Corbyn apparently working just with his inner clique to re-write letters "forgetting" what he's agreed with one of his leading shadow cabinet members.)

PS For anyone with German, there's a splendid piece about Brexit about 14½ minutes in to this (thanks to The Guardian for the reference): https://www.zdf.de/comedy/heute-show/heute-show-vom-1-februar-2019-100.html

I think that a lot of people are beginning to think that way, and there's a lot of unrest on all sides because of it.

Sometimes, I wonder if we wouldn't be better off with somebody like Digby Jones running the country.

 

[EM2]

Sometimes, I wonder if we wouldn't be better off with somebody like Digby Jones running the country.

God, no!

 

[bramling]

I think that a lot of people are beginning to think that way, and there's a lot of unrest on all sides because of it.

Sometimes, I wonder if we wouldn't be better off with somebody like Digby Jones running the country.

Putting aside all our own views on what should happen, where do we all think this is *actually* heading at the moment. Is it a case of May simply running down the clock to force a choice between her deal and no deal in the hope that her deal gets through, do we think the EU will blink at the last minute, and do we think no deal could happen by default or even by May’s choice?

 

[Modron]

I think that Valentine's Day (Cooper Amendment Part 2) is pretty much make or break.

If this is defeated, the odds on No Deal must surely increase?

I think that 'Theresa the Appeaser' knows that deep down the EU won't budge and that Parliament will just keep rejecting whatever she puts before them.

If there are signs of a No Deal being imminent, the EU MIGHT offer some last minute concessions and hopefully one of them will be the backstop.

I hope that it is not considered advertising, but the YouTube channel TLDRNews has some great videos on Brexit and they do strive to be impartial.

 

[nlogax]

Putting aside all our own views on what should happen, where do we all think this is *actually* heading at the moment. Is it a case of May simply running down the clock to force a choice between her deal and no deal in the hope that her deal gets through

She's intent on the UK leaving the EU on March 29th and she doesn't seem so bothered about sealing a deal.

do we think the EU will blink at the last minute

I doubt they will.

and do we think no deal could happen by default or even by May’s choice?

A little from column A, a little from column B...

 

[Esker-pades]

Putting aside all our own views on what should happen, where do we all think this is *actually* heading at the moment. Is it a case of May simply running down the clock to force a choice between her deal and no deal in the hope that her deal gets through, do we think the EU will blink at the last minute, and do we think no deal could happen by default or even by May’s choice?

I really don't know. And I don't think anybody actually knows.

Things that could happen:
1. We leave without a deal
Sadly, I think this is the most likely.

2. The EU "stops the clock"
I'm not sure how this would work. Article 50 clearly states 2 years, which could be extended but only if the state who triggers it asks.

3. We ask for an extension
That can only be passed by an act of parliament. If it passes (if), we then have the power to ask the EU for an extension. The noises that they have made suggests that they would grant an extension in such circumstances.

4. We suspend Article 50
Again, this would require an act of parliament. If it passes (very unlikely), then we can unilaterally suspend article 50 and remain a member of the EU. Nobody can force us to change anything about our current membership if we do this (Germany+ etc.).

5. Something about the Cooper Amendment
It means that the UK cannot leave without a deal. It could well pass (and I'm in favour of it), but what does that actually mean? The deadlock that we are in at the moment (both inside the House of Commons and between the UK and EU) shows little sign of ending.

6. May negotiates a new Backstop Arrangement and her deal passes
Not going to be a thing.

 

[EM2]

Putting aside all our own views on what should happen, where do we all think this is *actually* heading at the moment. Is it a case of May simply running down the clock to force a choice between her deal and no deal in the hope that her deal gets through, do we think the EU will blink at the last minute, and do we think no deal could happen by default or even by May’s choice?

She's running down the clock. She did it with DRIP (Data Retention and Investigatory Powers), she's doing it with Brexit.

 

[Senex]

She's running down the clock. She did it with DRIP (Data Retention and Investigatory Powers), she's doing it with Brexit.

And that seems to be borne out by the overheard Brussels conversation involving Olly Robbins that is reported this morning on the BBC and in The Guardian (and no doubt elsewhere too), in which he appears to have said her aim is to go to the wire and then offer a simple choice between her deal or a long delay (which the ERG in particular is most unlikely to want to accept). All not doubt within the rules of our "constitution", but if this happens, what a supine and craven bunch it will shew our MPs to be.

 

[Groningen]

Today in many Dutch newspapers an article about stashing up supplies. There seems to be a more than 9500 group on Facebook called 48 % preppers with information about all kind of foods, supermarkets and how to save money.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Putting aside all our own views on what should happen, where do we all think this is *actually* heading at the moment. Is it a case of May simply running down the clock to force a choice between her deal and no deal in the hope that her deal gets through, do we think the EU will blink at the last minute, and do we think no deal could happen by default or even by May’s choice?

I think no deal is pretty much certain.

 

[HH]

I think no deal is pretty much certain.

I think there's no chance of no deal.

One of us must be right!

 

[Cowley]

I think there's no chance of no deal.

One of us must be right!

I think last minute deal. But then I thought we'd vote remain and Trump wouldn't be elected sooo...

 

[YorkshireBear]

Quote from BBC news article regarding Ford.

During the call Mrs May confirmed reports that the government was preparing a package of financial support for businesses affected by a no-deal Brexit but declined to elaborate, The Times said.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47225787

If you start compensating companies in the case of no deal, your £350million a week starts to run out pretty fast!

 

[Puffing Devil]

Quote from BBC news article regarding Ford.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47225787

If you start compensating companies in the case of no deal, your £350million a week starts to run out pretty fast!

Which magic money tree is this pot of cash coming from?

 

[YorkshireBear]

Which magic money tree is this pot of cash coming from?

Not sure, probably the same one that funds schools.

 

[Esker-pades]

Not sure, probably the same one that funds schools.

So, we stop funding schools to compensate business for the huge mess that Brexit will cause? Stick that on the side of a bus.

 

[eotw]

Upthread discussion regarding freedom of movement (FoM) and the customs union (CU).

FoM is one of ther four pillars of the Single Market, nothing to do with the CU. In any scenario people will be able to travel between NI and RoI using the Common Travel Area which covers all of the British Isles.

The reason for keeping NI in the CU is to avoid infrastructure on the border, remember even cameras checking number plates would be considered infrastructure. Assuming different tariffs and no customs then it would be a smugglers paradise encouraging organised crime and any attempt to police it would risk a return to para-military violence.

For Sanitary and phytosanitary requirement the border is already in the Irish Sea.

Just an aside on FoM, it is not about freedom to travel, settle and cliaim benefits any where in the EU, it is about the free movement of labour.

Article 45 TFEU (ex 39 and 48) states that:

1. Freedom of movement for workers shall be secured within the Community.
2. Such freedom of movement shall entail the abolition of any discrimination based on nationality between workers of the Member States as regards employment, remuneration and other conditions of work and employment.
3. It shall entail the right, subject to limitations justified on grounds of public policy, public security or public health:
   (a) to accept offers of employment actually made;
   (b) to move freely within the territory of Member States for this purpose;
   (c) to stay in a Member State for the purpose of employment in accordance with the provisions governing the employment of nationals of that State laid down by law, regulation or administrative action;
   (d) to remain in the territory of a Member State after having been employed in that State, subject to conditions which shall be embodied in implementing regulations to be drawn up by the Commission.
4. The provisions of this article shall not apply to employment in the public service

If the UK government had bothered it could send any unemployed EU citizens back after 3 months.

 

[furnessvale]

Today in many Dutch newspapers an article about stashing up supplies. There seems to be a more than 9500 group on Facebook called 48 % preppers with information about all kind of foods, supermarkets and how to save money.

Why are the Dutch stocking supplies etc? I was told that Brexit would only hurt the UK and it would be a mere flea bite to the EU.

 

[Modron]

Why are the Dutch stocking supplies etc? I was told that Brexit would only hurt the UK and it would be a mere flea bite to the EU.

Not sure it is the Dutch stocking supplies (unless it's due to concerns about trade via Rotterdam port?), but more the Dutch media mentioning that some British people are stocking up on foods just in case of problems after March 29th.

It's a no-lose situation with stocking up - if things are bad, they'll have food to eat until things return to normal and if things are fine then tinned foods and non-perishables will keep.