EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[miami]

No that was just scaremongering, all you have to do is listen to the likes of Gove and Farage who say we can have access to the single market without accepting migration or making an EU contribution honest gov, because we are the 5th largest economy in the world and the Germans flog loads of cars to us.

Except of course our economy is vastly smaller than the combined EU economy and the Germans have probably worked out that many people are so obsessed with German cars in this country that they will buy them even with a tariff on them

A 5% tariff is rather inconsequential if the pound keeps falling.

An audi sold for €56k just before the 2015 election it would have been £40k. The same €56k audi now costs £47k thanks to the fall in the pound. That's the equivalent of a 15% tariff, I suspect consumers buying audis aren't really going to worry about a 10% swing in price either way, they may simply skimp on the extras.

With exports from the UK, selling a £40M engine did cost €56M euros before the election, and now and now only costs €48M. Great you might think, but slap a 15% tariff and it's back up to €55M, and that's before you factor in the increased cost of import for the parts to make that engine.

However for us buying food from abroad, having the price jump from £100 to £115 for the weekly shop won't help the average man on the street.

 

[Steveman]

Since Merkel opened the doors to the whole world Deutsche bank has lost 45% of its value and shares have hit a 30 year low.
Yesterday it failed its second stress test and it has been described as currently the riskiest financial institution in the world, within weeks it will need a massive bailout.

In more news to dismay Remainers yesterday both HSBC and Barclays pledged they are going to keep their center of operations here.
The Barclays boss said :They would "remain anchored in Great Britain the vote might create new jobs on the Continent but would not lead to redundancies in Britain."

The HSBC boss said :

"London is the world’s most important foreign exchange centre.
This is still the foreign exchange capital of currencies that have nothing to do with Europe.
The major trading currency in the world today is the dollar.The referendum vote would not change HSBC’s hiring plans to any meaningful degree’"

Royal Dutch Shell have said a £4 billion investment in the UK will go ahead as planned, their boss said : "Do I see major changes in our commitment to the UK ? Absolutely not."

US House of Representatives speaker Paul Ryan said "America should show ‘solidarity’ with Britain and a trade agreement was vital
Discussions should begin immediately"

11 Countries at least gearing up to strike trade deals with Britain: US, Iceland, India - the one-time colony (which has three times as many citizens as the EU) is looking forward to striking a deal, according to reports in the FT. Ghana, New Zealand, Australia, Canada, Mexico (already have a draft), and South Korea.

New Zealand knowing how our civil servants are going to be very busy have offered the use of their "battle hardened negotiators" as unlike any EU country they are a true and real friend.
The EU has shown by its spiteful comments and threats since we voted to leave how they never were any friend to us as they don't have the old and trusted connections just geographic ones which are irrelevant in a global world.
The days of being a "Little European" need to be totally reversed.

 

[Harbornite]

Since Merkel opened the doors to the whole world Deutsche bank has lost 45% of its value and shares have hit a 30 year low.
Yesterday it failed its second stress test and it has been described as currently the riskiest financial institution in the world, within weeks it will need a massive bailout.

In more news to dismay Remainers yesterday both HSBC and Barclays pledged they are going to keep their center of operations here.
The Barclays boss said :They would "remain anchored in Great Britain the vote might create new jobs on the Continent but would not lead to redundancies in Britain."

The HSBC boss said :

"London is the world’s most important foreign exchange centre.
This is still the foreign exchange capital of currencies that have nothing to do with Europe.
The major trading currency in the world today is the dollar.The referendum vote would not change HSBC’s hiring plans to any meaningful degree’"

Royal Dutch Shell have said a £4 billion investment in the UK will go ahead as planned, their boss said : "Do I see major changes in our commitment to the UK ? Absolutely not."

11 Countries at least gearing up to strike trade deals with Britain: US, Iceland, India - the one-time colony (which has three times as many citizens as the EU) is looking forward to striking a deal, according to reports in the FT. Ghana, New Zealand, Australia, Canada, Mexico (already have a draft), and South Korea.

That's relatively good news.

 

[radamfi]

Iceland

is in the European single market.

It would be helpful if you quoted a source. It sounds it comes from a newspaper article and not from a broadcast organisation.

 

[Johnuk123]

is in the European single market.

It would be helpful if you quoted a source. It sounds it comes from a newspaper article and not from a broadcast organisation.

What's the difference they all simply give out news right or wrong ?

 

[miami]

Interesting quote.

Google has 1 result for

"London is the world's most important foreign exchange centre."

Which is your post.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/brexit-fallout-hsbc-and-barclays-pledge-to-remain-in-the-uk-2016-7

Seems a better link

The Financial Times reports that chairman Douglas Flint said at an event in the City on Thursday that last week's shock EU referendum result would not prompt a review of the bank's headquarters. HSBC concluded a 10-month review into where to base its HQ in February, deciding to stay in London.

So basically no panic, but just a sign of a long terminal decline in the UK as new opportunities and future growth are made elsewhere

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36670480

Barclays is "staying anchored in Great Britain" he told BBC business editor Simon Jack.
Some banks have warned that the Brexit vote may affect jobs.
But Mr Staley said: "Right now we are not making any plans to pick up and move people from one location to another."
That said, Barclays "wants to be involved in the capital markets globally" and wants to "stay connected to the European capital markets".
The bank will aim to take on new employees if access to Europe is restricted by Brexit, he said.
"You might have to increase your presence in another location - that doesn't necessarily mean you have to decrease [at] your location here," Mr Staley said.

 

[radamfi]

What's the difference they all simply give out news right or wrong ?

Broadcast organisations have an obligation to be balanced (which therefore means that some people find it biased in one direction and others in another direction). Newspapers have no such regulation.

 

[northwichcat]

Since Merkel opened the doors to the whole world Deutsche bank has lost 45% of its value and shares have hit a 30 year low.

...

In more news to dismay Remainers

How is the above supposed to dismay us?

The UK is not Germany - the closing of industries in the 1980s made sure we were much weaker. The Euro has done better than the GBP since 2007 despite the likes of Greece being in the Eurozone and dragging the value down. The UK would have been better off in the Eurozone but Germany would have been even worse off if we were in it.

 

[miami]

Interesting quote.

Google has 1 result for

"London is the world's most important foreign exchange centre."

Which is your post.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/brexit-fallout-hsbc-and-barclays-pledge-to-remain-in-the-uk-2016-7

Seems a better link

The Financial Times reports that chairman Douglas Flint said at an event in the City on Thursday that last week's shock EU referendum result would not prompt a review of the bank's headquarters. HSBC concluded a 10-month review into where to base its HQ in February, deciding to stay in London.

So basically no panic, but just a sign of a long terminal decline in the UK as new opportunities and future growth are made elsewhere

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36670480

Barclays is "staying anchored in Great Britain" he told BBC business editor Simon Jack.
Some banks have warned that the Brexit vote may affect jobs.
But Mr Staley said: "Right now we are not making any plans to pick up and move people from one location to another."
That said, Barclays "wants to be involved in the capital markets globally" and wants to "stay connected to the European capital markets".
The bank will aim to take on new employees if access to Europe is restricted by Brexit, he said.
"You might have to increase your presence in another location - that doesn't necessarily mean you have to decrease [at] your location here," Mr Staley said.

 

[YorkshireBear]

New Zealand knowing how our civil servants are going to be very busy have offered the use of their "battle hardened negotiators" as unlike any EU country they are a true and real friend.
The EU has shown by its spiteful comments and threats since we voted to leave how they never were any friend to us as they don't have the old and trusted connections just geographic ones which are irrelevant in a global world.
The days of being a "Little European" need to be totally reversed.

Hardly fair.

The EU are not going to give us negotiators to negotiate with themselves are they?

If all that is true, and the banks are not lying, then it is good news.

Still not convinced that it is all better than being in the EU of course.

 

[Mvann]

What is becoming clear is which EU countries still want to deal with Britain. The positives seem to be coming from Poland, Slovakia, Germany, Hungary and maybe Sweden. Just waiting for the Danes, do I can still have my bacon sandwich in the mornings.

 

[radamfi]

It will be impossible to prove one way or the other whether leaving the EU is economically harmful or not, because we can't live in two parallel universes where in one the UK is in the EU and not in the other. If the economy performs well, how would we know that it wouldn't have performed well anyway? Similarly, if the economy goes down the toilet, people will say that would have happened anyway.

Brexit now enables future Chancellors of the Exchequer to blame Brexit for any problems in the future. Osbourne can already increase taxes and cut spending without worrying about any political fallout.

 

[Steveman]

Interesting quote.

Google has 1 result for

"London is the world's most important foreign exchange centre."

Which is your post.

Yesterday took place the 2016 annual conference organised by the TheCityUK group in London it was at that event where Douglas Flint group chairman of HSBC holdings said what you quote.

 

[Harbornite]

deleted

 

[Steveman]

Not the first time a brexiter has lied to justify their opinion although this lie is based on some truth.

Are you saying that I made that quote up then ?

 

[Harbornite]

Are you saying that I made that quote up then ?

Ignore what I said, Paul Weaver was wrong because I've found the article (which you didn't provide a link to)
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ses-HSBC-Barclays-confirm-no-plans-leave.html

 

[Tetchytyke]

And as the EU does more trade with us than we do with them the pressure in the end will be them.

About 16% of the EU's total export trade is with the UK, which compares with 15% with the US and 8% with China.

By comparison 45% of our export trade is with the EU.

Only two individual countries in the EU- Cyprus and Ireland- do more than 10% of their export trade with the UK.

http://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/after-brexit-how-important-would-uk-trade-be-eu

Those who believe the EU need us more than we need the EU are either deluded or don't understand what the trade deficit actually means.

 

[Steveman]

Well the statement is true, but you quoted it from an article and yet the article didn't say it. Therefore the quote was false but the statement is true. Not that hard to understand is it?

The quote is not false as it was said at the event, it wasn't in the article as the article didn't give a word for word report on the speech.

Daily Mail today :

At a conference organised by lobby group TheCityUK, Mr Flint said London was the world’s ‘most important’ foreign exchange centre.

Now you can reply that the Daily Mail isn't to be trusted and makes everything up or you can apologise.

Not that hard to understand is it ?

 

[Harbornite]

Now you can reply that the Daily Mail isn't to be trusted and makes everything up or you can apologise.

Not that hard to understand is it ?

Why would I bother apologising to you. I was misinformed (just like many brexiters in fact). You didn't bother providing a link to the source of your quote which is what you are supposed to do, so people will naturally assume that the quote could be false. It was actually me who found the article and I withdrew my statement, and it just so happens that I actually read the mail sometimes so I wouldn't say that they make everything up. Having said that, I'm not saying that they are a good newspaper.

 

[miami]

Ignore what I said, Paul Weaver was wrong because I've found the article (which you didn't refer to)
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ses-HSBC-Barclays-confirm-no-plans-leave.html

I take it all back, my bad.

I wasn't wrong, that quote does not exist according to google (or duckduckgo)

I then posted some links to some reputable sources backing it up.

 

[Harbornite]

I wasn't wrong, that quote does not exist according to google (or duckduckgo)

I then posted some links to some reputable sources backing it up.

In steve's defence, it was in the daily mail article that he couldn't be bothered to link.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ses-HSBC-Barclays-confirm-no-plans-leave.html

At a conference organised by lobby group TheCityUK, Mr Flint said London was the world’s ‘most important’ foreign exchange centre.

 

[Mvann]

But you are comparing a block on %. What you are saying is that the EU traded 16% exports to a country of 64 million, and traded 15% with a country of 319 million.
At the same time 45% of a country of 64million is being traded with 27 countries of a population of 444 million.

We buy more from Germany than Germany buys from us. So according to you, Germany doesn't need us more than we need them.

 

[Tetchytyke]

We buy more from Germany than Germany buys from us. So according to you, Germany doesn't need us more than we need them.

No, I'm saying German exports are more important to our economy than UK exports are to the German economy.

10% of our export trade is with Germany. 7% of Germany's (bigger) export trade is with the UK. So whilst we import from Germany more than we export to Germany, the simple fact is that Germany don't need us as much as we need them.

Also bear in mind that most of our exports are services, whereas most of our imports are goods. Those services are mostly legal and financial, both of which would be impacted by the loss of access to the single market. Our services industry is successful because of our English speaking and our access to the single market; lose that access and suddenly Paris or Frankfurt look better bets to host your banks and international law firms.

The UK would remain an important trading partner to the EU, but we are not indispensable. The EU don't need us as much as the Brexit lot are trying to claim.

 

[radamfi]

Osborne has now announced that the target to clear the deficit by 2020 has been abandoned. Some people would say that's a good thing but Osborne would not have dared announced that if it wasn't for Brexit.

 

[Mvann]

We may not be as important to them, but if the story of 760000 German jobs at risk is true, then that tends to suggest that at least we need each other. It's alright talking in % if you are dealing with equal amounts, which in this case we are not. As an example. If Britains export was 100million, then our exports to the EU would be 45 million. At the same time Europe exports to us would be 16 million for every 100 million, but obviously as there are 27 countries the EU total exports could be up to 27 times more than the 100 million. Therefore that could be 27x16=432 million in trade to the uk. These are theatrical figures but hopefully you get the idea. Economies work on hard cash, not %.

 

[anme]

Another moment to make you truly embarrassed to be British:
"It has been suggested by some Tory candidates that the possibility of ejecting EU migrants living in the UK could become a possible lever. Fears that UK nationals may be thrown out of the EU, and EU nationals ejected from the UK in a tit-for-tat war has already led to an increase in passport applications by UK emigrants in Europe."

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...malmstrom-eu-trade-commissioner-brexit-uk-wto

The rest of Europe will be much better off without us.

 

[Tetchytyke]

We may not be as important to them, but if the story of 760000 German jobs at risk is true, then that tends to suggest that at least we need each other...Economies work on hard cash, not %.

It's better to talk in percentages, because that's the damage that would be done. 5% of a big economy may be more than 10% of a small one, but bigger economies also have more flex to take the impact of the loss.

The UK would be an important trading partner, though not as important to Germany as either France or the United States. They would want to continue trading with us. But that doesn't mean we get to dictate terms and nor does it mean that we would have carte blanche to cherrypick the bits of the EU that we like.

45% of our trade is with the EU bloc, whilst only 16% of the EU bloc's trade is with us. Losing 16% of their export ecconomy would hurt the EU, but us losing nearly half of our export economy would hurt us an awful lot more. The mean numbers are irrelevant. We are not in a position of strength here. We are not indispensable.

There's also the political aspect to this: Germany and France will need to be relatively tough with us for political reasons as much as economic ones.

 

[Harbornite]

Another moment to make you truly embarrassed to be British:
"It has been suggested by some Tory candidates that the possibility of ejecting EU migrants living in the UK could become a possible lever. Fears that UK nationals may be thrown out of the EU, and EU nationals ejected from the UK in a tit-for-tat war has already led to an increase in passport applications by UK emigrants in Europe."

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...malmstrom-eu-trade-commissioner-brexit-uk-wto

The rest of Europe will be much better off without us.

Wonderful.

 

[me123]

The rest of Europe will be much better off without us.

Whole heartedly agree. If I was an EU member state, I would have absolutely no motivation to make any special arrangements with the UK after the rhetoric that come from these isles.

 

[Mvann]

But from the way that's sounding, the uk would only do that if the EU countries do that first.
At this stage it just political posturing. Both Scotland's first minister and prospective Tory leader Teresa may have said that those EU citizens already here would not be required to leave. Now there could be a cut off date, ie if someone can work out how to start article 50 and is prepared to do it an does so on say 1st jan 2017.

For what it's worth, I think even if we did restrict movement, it would only last a couple of years.