EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[AM9]

Why are the Dutch stocking supplies etc? I was told that Brexit would only hurt the UK and it would be a mere flea bite to the EU.

Did he actually say that the Dutch newspaper article was about the Dutch stocking supplies?

 

[bramling]

It's a no-lose situation with stocking up - if things are bad, they'll have food to eat until things return to normal and if things are fine then tinned foods and non-perishables will keep.

Our household has stockpiled. But then we tend to do that anyway with non-perishable goods, by buying in mega bulk when the relevant items are on special offer and then storing them until needed.

Of course none of this is a function of Brexit, but more potential government piss-poor preparation.

 

[eotw]

I was told that Brexit would only hurt the UK and it would be a mere flea bite to the EU

It has always been acknowledged by sensible commentators that a No Deal Brexit would seriously hurt the EU, but whatever harm it causes the EU, it will be worse for the UK.

Metaphor alert: The EU is a patient having an amputation of the right leg without anaesthetic, we are the leg and keeping it alive is going to be challenging.

 

[JonasB]

5. Something about the Cooper Amendment
It means that the UK cannot leave without a deal.

If I've understood the amendment correct, it will reduce the risk of a no deal. An extension still has to be granted by the EU27. There are two ways the HoC can stop a no deal brexit. 1. Withdraw the article 50 notice. 2. Approve a deal.

 

[Modron]

If I've understood the amendment correct, it will reduce the risk of a no deal. An extension still has to be granted by the EU27. There are two ways the HoC can stop a no deal brexit. 1. Withdraw the article 50 notice. 2. Approve a deal.

You've got it perfectly!

The thing is that Theresa May has stated time and time again that she wants the UK to leave the EU on March 29th 2019, however neither Leave nor Remain voters are content with the agreement on the table and the EU has said that it will not budge on certain aspects.

It's very much like being between a rock and a hard place.

 

[eotw]

There are two ways the HoC can stop a no deal brexit. 1. Withdraw the article 50 notice.

In fact HoC can't withdraw article 50. Only the Government can or to be precise one of her Majesty's Ministers. HoC can advise HMG to withdraw and if HMG refuse have a vote of no confidence.

HoC is not as all powerful as people think - power is with Government.

 

[Senex]

How does the Common Travel Area work when Britain has left the EU determined to control its borders? Ireland is not in Schengen

HoC is not as all powerful as people think - power is with Government.

Precisely — power is with the queen's ministers in this survival of a feudal state.

 

[cjp]

How is the EU going to manage without all the money the UK gives it?

How will small French farmers manage with a reduced Common Agricultural Policy.

Why are we obliged to give them the EU the made up figures of millions because we decided to leave - nastiness on their part?

 

[eotw]

How is the EU going to manage without all the money the UK gives it?

How will small French farmers manage with a reduced Common Agricultural Policy.

Why are we obliged to give them the EU the made up figures of millions because we decided to leave - nastiness on their part?

How will Welsh Hill farmers survive without the EU?

UK sheep meat exports could suffer considerably if tariffs come into play. Carcases make up an important part of what the UK exports to the EU and could potentially be facing tariffs as high as 45-50% of the price of the meat, which would be a blow to our price competitiveness on the export market. Various modelling work, including AHDB’s Brexit Scenarios: An impact assessment, have shown that domestic prices of sheep meat are likely to fall under these circumstances and considerably reduce the incomes of sheep farmers.

https://ahdb.org.uk/knowledge-library/brexit-prospects-for-uk-beef-and-sheep-meat-trade

If you are genuinely interested about divorce bill - https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-divorce-bill/

In a nutshell

• The UK’s contribution to EU annual budgets up to 2020;
• Payment of outstanding commitments; and
• Financing liabilities up to the end of 2020.

 

[Basher]

I see on tonight's news inflation is down and earnings up over the past two years. Has BREXIT any ting to do with it, or is it only bad news is given credit to BREXIT. ?

 

[mmh]

I haven't started my stockpiling yet, but I should really start - those party poppers aren't going to buy themselves.

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

I see on tonight's news inflation is down and earnings up over the past two years. Has BREXIT any ting to do with it, or is it only bad news is given credit to BREXIT. ?

TBF the "bad news" is all about uncertainty for the future after 29th March. The reports about inflation and earnings are about (recent) past performance. Earnings rising was inevitable due to years of suppressed wages and HMG finally easing back on austerity. Inflation being below 2% would be judged by many economists to be too low and suggestive of an economy near to recession. I suspect your perception of the news may depend on the news outlet that you receive it from.

 

[Modron]

Did anybody hear about George Soros wading in on the Brexit debate?

 

[radamfi]

Does the deal between the UK and Switzerland mean free movement between the two countries will continue for the foreseeable future, regardless of what happens in UK-EU negotiations?

 

[AM9]

Did anybody hear about George Soros wading in on the Brexit debate?

No, but why would that be an issue?

 

[Esker-pades]

Did anybody hear about George Soros wading in on the Brexit debate?

Did anybody hear about Aaron Banks wading into the Brexit debate?

There are very wealthy individuals on both sides.

 

[Puffing Devil]

How is the EU going to manage without all the money the UK gives it?

How will small French farmers manage with a reduced Common Agricultural Policy.

Why are we obliged to give them the EU the made up figures of millions because we decided to leave - nastiness on their part?

The lack of awareness of the use of funds in the EU is truly astonishing.

Imagine that Wales decides to leave the UK. How would the UK survive without all of the tax revenues from Wales? Quite well would be the answer, as many projects that were funded by the UK government in Wales would no longer get any money. Wales would be "richer" because of the tax income retained, but the expenses would soon rise to overtake it as it had to replace the functions that were shared with the UK - Food and Product Safety, Aviation Control, Medicine Control, etc. On top of that, Wales would be doing its own trade negotiations. Who's going to get a better deal - the rest of the UK with a huge market, or a small country with no major industry?

Sure, the UK would experience some increased costs, but smaller than the pain that will be felt by Wales. It's generally better to be part of a club and share expenses that to try to recreate the facilities yourself.

And that is the picture for the UK as it leaves the EU.

 

[Puffing Devil]

I see on tonight's news inflation is down and earnings up over the past two years. Has BREXIT any ting to do with it, or is it only bad news is given credit to BREXIT. ?

And inward investment has flatlined for two years.

 

[Puffing Devil]

Our household has stockpiled. But then we tend to do that anyway with non-perishable goods, by buying in mega bulk when the relevant items are on special offer and then storing them until needed.

Of course none of this is a function of Brexit, but more potential government piss-poor preparation.

No Brexit, no need to stockpile. We wouldn't even be talking about stockpiling if we walked into this mess. Of course, it's down to Brexit.

It's a little like shooting ourselves in the foot and then blaming the medics for not doing a good enough job to heal the wound. Even the best surgeons would leave us with a limp.

 

[Howardh]

R/e stockpiling, under normal circumstances I keep 2 - 3 weeks food in the freezer/tins so that if I were ever incapacitated/hospitalized then the carers who would have to look after mum in the meantime would have access to all her specialist foods without having to go to the shops. If that weren't the case then I would have a week or so for myself BUT *Brexit alert* if here's no deal then I may well stockpile stuff that would likely to go up in price due to tariffs. And wine. I suppose that could be anything from Europe so on my next big shop I'll be checking the labels.

Although there's nothing stopping us getting the ferry to Dublin and filling the boot!!

*Actually, I suppose there is. If we on the mainland or anyone in Northern Ireland did that, would we have to pay taxes at customs on return, and how would we do that seeing as there aren't any?? Brexit voter please answer...

 

[Modron]

No, but why would that be an issue?

The man is reportedly a very wealthy and therefore influential character. I believe that he had an impact on the ERM and Black Wednesday in 1992.

He believes that the EUs future is on a knife-edge, and whilst in the past it was mainly the cry of the anti-EU brigade more and more people are questioning will the EU be around in a few years.

@FelixtheCat is correct with his comment on Aaron Banks as well, there's money and influence on both sides.

 

[Modron]

R/e stockpiling, under normal circumstances I keep 2 - 3 weeks food in the freezer/tins so that if I were ever incapacitated/hospitalized then the carers who would have to look after mum in the meantime would have access to all her specialist foods without having to go to the shops. If that weren't the case then I would have a week or so for myself BUT *Brexit alert* if here's no deal then I may well stockpile stuff that would likely to go up in price due to tariffs. And wine. I suppose that could be anything from Europe so on my next big shop I'll be checking the labels.

Although there's nothing stopping us getting the ferry to Dublin and filling the boot!!

*Actually, I suppose there is. If we on the mainland or anyone in Northern Ireland did that, would we have to pay taxes at customs on return, and how would we do that seeing as there aren't any?? Brexit voter please answer...

Apart from a possible Ferry strike somewhere down the line, and wouldn't that be ironic ?

 

[Modron]

No Brexit, no need to stockpile. We wouldn't even be talking about stockpiling if we walked into this mess. Of course, it's down to Brexit.

It's a little like shooting ourselves in the foot and then blaming the medics for not doing a good enough job to heal the wound. Even the best surgeons would leave us with a limp.

All of this should have been considered long in advance.

The run-up to decision date online was full of toxicity from both sides, and instead of sensible debate about the things which have only come to light since the decision (the backstop being the main one - I can't remember that being spoken about much?) it was all grandstanding and 'you're an idiot...blah...blah!'

It's probably not 'our finest hour' as a country, and I think we've definitely become more of a divided society as a result. That worries me more personally than any problems after March 29th.

 

[Puffing Devil]

All of this should have been considered long in advance.

The run-up to decision date online was full of toxicity from both sides, and instead of sensible debate about the things which have only come to light since the decision (the backstop being the main one - I can't remember that being spoken about much?) it was all grandstanding and 'you're an idiot...blah...blah!'

It's probably not 'our finest hour' as a country, and I think we've definitely become more of a divided society as a result. That worries me more personally than any problems after March 29th.

The biggest mistake was rushing to enact the A50. That put us in a corner immediately. No experienced negotiator would ever recommend this.

 

[Modron]

The biggest mistake was rushing to enact the A50. That put us in a corner immediately. No experienced negotiator would ever recommend this.

Possibly, although maybe she feared that UKIP and Mr. Farage would try and steal a march if she dithered.

It's an impossible job, trying to appease both Leave and Remain camps as well as get the HoC to back any deal on the table.

 

[Howardh]

The biggest mistake was rushing to enact the A50. That put us in a corner immediately. No experienced negotiator would ever recommend this.

Might have been an idea if, as part of the referendum process, there was a second one (maybe within 6 months and certainly before A50) where the public were asked what kind of Brexit they wanted - WTO, Canada, Norway+ - and that means 100% of the voters had a say in the countries direction and no-one could feel cast aside (as the 48% feel totally ignored).
That may well have ended up being something like Norway/EFTA/EEA but at least the majority would have been behind it and the government truly knew the "will of the people" and it would have focused their minds rather than the empty void we have had for the last two years.

Anyhow, as it is now we will end up with something hardly anyone in the country wants (leave or remain) so it begs the question is the result the will of the people? Answer - probably not.

 

[Modron]

Might have been an idea if, as part of the referendum process, there was a second one (maybe within 6 months and certainly before A50) where the public were asked what kind of Brexit they wanted - WTO, Canada, Norway+ - and that means 100% of the voters had a say in the countries direction and no-one could feel cast aside (as the 48% feel totally ignored).
That may well have ended up being something like Norway/EFTA/EEA but at least the majority would have been behind it and the government truly knew the "will of the people" and it would have focused their minds rather than the empty void we have had for the last two years.

Anyhow, as it is now we will end up with something hardly anyone in the country wants (leave or remain) so it begs the question is the result the will of the people? Answer - probably not.

Whilst that is certainly true, many Leavers might say that felt totally ignored for years before as well.

Also, Mr. Cameron should have honoured his words as well, though politician in lie shocker is hardly a new thing.

 

[Howardh]

Whilst that is certainly true, many Leavers might say that felt totally ignored for years before as well.

Also, Mr. Cameron should have honoured his words as well, though politician in lie shocker is hardly a new thing.

To be fair to both those points, Cameron DID go to the EU and get - if nothing new - at least conformation we could remove EU "scroungers" ie those not working who couldn't support themselves after three months. Also, throughout the history of the EU we have gained rebates, veto's and opt-outs.

When we join the WTO (we are, of course, already a member but you know what I mean) how will leave EU voters enjoy the UK being in an unelected institution with no opt-outs, vetos, rebates or voted representatives....will they be demanding we leave the WTO too??

 

[Puffing Devil]

Might have been an idea if, as part of the referendum process, there was a second one (maybe within 6 months and certainly before A50) where the public were asked what kind of Brexit they wanted - WTO, Canada, Norway+ - and that means 100% of the voters had a say in the countries direction and no-one could feel cast aside (as the 48% feel totally ignored).
That may well have ended up being something like Norway/EFTA/EEA but at least the majority would have been behind it and the government truly knew the "will of the people" and it would have focused their minds rather than the empty void we have had for the last two years.

Anyhow, as it is now we will end up with something hardly anyone in the country wants (leave or remain) so it begs the question is the result the will of the people? Answer - probably not.

Nah. You're forgetting that everyone knew what they were voting for, all knew that out meant out and were really voting for a no deal hard Brexit. And all of the Leave Campaign focused on that. Certainly no promises of staying in the Customs Union or Single Market. No, certainly no talk of that. It was all about the hard Brexit and imposed poverty. That's what people voted for.

 

[Modron]

The Dutch appear to be weary of the 'Brexit Monster'...