Exit strategy predictions

[trebor79]

My own observations are that mask wearing is getting less common than it was a couple of weeks ago.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It would certainly be good news if in the near future people would be able to see at least some friends and family. However the "home made mask" idea is a mockery in itself, if a face covering cannot be medicinally proven to work, what exactly is the point? You either go full medical mask requirement, something I don't endorse for a variety of reasons, or you don't bother at all. This solution smacks of some half-way house solution, designed to give the impression of doing something without actually, well doing something.

Though it's a very popular move in other countries...we should at least ask ourselves why.

 

[yorkie]

To avoid duplication let's have the discussion about the wearing of masks in the dedicated thread: https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...s-to-be-encouraged-with-no-compulsion.203732/

 

[AM9]

Well, I'll need to visit friends and family somehow, so they'll have to come up with the clever intervention.

Not specifically in your case, but the 'need' would mean different things to different people.

 

[6862]

We're back to the old question of what is non-essential travel, especially in the case of long distance rail travel. This interests me personally because when the lockdown started, I was visiting my parents (so I stayed with them and am still here), and as a postgraduate student I am in the strange situation of having two 'primary addresses', although I typically spend 95 % of the year in the city where I study. If my department reopens, in say 2 months time, I wonder if I would be permitted to travel there if there was still a ban on non-essential travel (which seems likely). The government will have a difficult task defining what classes as non-essential travel long term. This isn't really something I expect an answer to, but it's worrying me rather a lot and it helps to just voice my worries!

 

[trebor79]

We're back to the old question of what is non-essential travel, especially in the case of long distance rail travel. This interests me personally because when the lockdown started, I was visiting my parents (so I stayed with them and am still here), and as a postgraduate student I am in the strange situation of having two 'primary addresses', although I typically spend 95 % of the year in the city where I study. If my department reopens, in say 2 months time, I wonder if I would be permitted to travel there if there was still a ban on non-essential travel (which seems likely). The government will have a difficult task defining what classes as non-essential travel long term. This isn't really something I expect an answer to, but it's worrying me rather a lot and it helps to just voice my worries!

Travelling to your work, place of study or primary address would seem to fit the criteria of "reasonable excuse" for being outside of the home.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Travelling to your work, place of study or primary address would seem to fit the criteria of "reasonable excuse" for being outside of the home.

Though notably students in halls were told prior to the lockdown "travel now" and after it "it's no longer essential".

 

[6862]

Though notably students in halls were told prior to the lockdown "travel now" and after it "it's no longer essential".

Yes - that was what worried me. I travelled about a week before the lockdown (thinking I would be able to return a week or two later), and when I saw the advice you mentioned I realised I had made a big mistake.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Yes - that was what worried me. I travelled about a week before the lockdown (thinking I would be able to return a week or two later), and when I saw the advice you mentioned I realised I had made a big mistake.

FWIW I'd have stayed, I think, unless the university had insisted I leave. Would far rather be on my own than tripping over my parents. We would have argued like nobody's business.

Edit: I mostly stayed at uni for the Easter holidays and some of Christmas. Obviously couldn't for summer though once in a house rather than halls I did for some of it.

 

[6862]

FWIW I'd have stayed, I think, unless the university had insisted I leave. Would far rather be on my own than tripping over my parents. We would have argued like nobody's business.

I should definitely have stayed - this is something that is dawning on me more and more each day. I was allowed to (I live in university owned accomodation), but I made a stupid mistake which I will likely regret for the rest of my life, as it is likely to severely impact on my ability to complete my PhD. Keeps me awake at night!

 

[Horizon22]

Various TOCs (well DfT essentially at this point) are discussing the potential of at least a partial ramp-up of services from Monday 18th.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I should definitely have stayed - this is something that is dawning on me more and more each day. I was allowed to (I live in university owned accomodation), but I made a stupid mistake which I will likely regret for the rest of my life, as it is likely to severely impact on my ability to complete my PhD. Keeps me awake at night!

I wouldn't go that far. I'm sure opportunities to extend the time will be offered, for example.

 

[6862]

I wouldn't go that far. I'm sure opportunities to extend the time will be offered, for example.

Unfortunately (and quite understandably given the circumstances and financial situation), the university and funding bodies aren't giving any guarantees. But yes I hope it will happen, just can't be sure.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Unfortunately (and quite understandably given the circumstances and financial situation), the university and funding bodies aren't giving any guarantees. But yes I hope it will happen, just can't be sure.

I think it's likely you will find an option of some form. It's easy to say I suppose, but don't panic.

 

[trebor79]

I should definitely have stayed - this is something that is dawning on me more and more each day. I was allowed to (I live in university owned accomodation), but I made a stupid mistake which I will likely regret for the rest of my life, as it is likely to severely impact on my ability to complete my PhD. Keeps me awake at night!

Just travel back. The trains are absolutely empty at the moment (I counted 4 passengers on a 4 coach service when I was stopped at a level crossing in "rush hour" yesterday. There is zero risk to you or anyone else is doing so. If someone asks if your journey is essential, the answer is "Yes".
Don't put your whole future at risk for the sake of being worried about travelling. That really would be a mistake you regret for the rest of your life.

 

[yorksrob]

Isn't making a one-off journey to complete one's studies tantamount to "travelling to work as unable to work from home", therefore permitted under the current guidelines ?

 

[6862]

It might be permitted if my department was open and I was therefore able to work. As it is, I currently can't work any better there than I can here. However, if that were to change at some point in the future I may travel as people have suggested I should be able to.

 

[bramling]

Well, I'll need to visit friends and family somehow, so they'll have to come up with the clever intervention.

What if they can’t?

 

[westv]

I wonder when “non essential” travel will be allowed again!
..... I haven’t been on a train in 6 weeks!

My last journey was 13/3.

 

[ChrisC]

Well, I'll need to visit friends and family somehow, so they'll have to come up with the clever intervention.

I think there comes a point where some people will have to. Isolated elderly people, especially those with progressive health conditions like dementia, ought to be able to at least see their children, even if only outside in the garden and from a distance of at least 2 metres. As I’ve pointed out previously my 85 year old mother would really love to see my sister who lives about 40 miles away. Both live in rural locations in houses with gardens and so hopefully in few weeks time that will be possible. It will perhaps not be so easy if the elderly person lives in a flat in an urban location.

 

[trebor79]

My own parents have already come round to the realisation that at some point lockdown will end and they will be responsible for their own decisions as to which risks they want to take.
They don't wish to spend the rest of their lives away from friends, family and particularly grandchildren. Having both survived cancer (twice in the case of my mother), they have no fear of death and wish only to spend what time they have as pleasantly as possible.
There was very good opinion piece from Max Hastings in the Times yesterday. Basically making the point that the government is likely to have only the option of making a "least bad" choice, and suggesting that sacrificing the futures of the young is not the least bad choice.

 

[Enthusiast]

They don't wish to spend the rest of their lives away from friends, family and particularly grandchildren. Having both survived cancer (twice in the case of my mother), they have no fear of death and wish only to spend what time they have as pleasantly as possible.

Indeed. As I have been hinting a few times, there comes a point when people believe that the cure is worse than the disease. If people are told they must spend a prolonged period in social isolation, if they are told the current arrangements are "the new normal", if medical treatment for other ailments is curtailed for any length of time (and if I can't get my hair cut ) then that point is going to arrive sooner rather than later. I am already firmly of the belief that if the current "lockdown" arrangements are not eased significantly then they will fail by default by about the end of next month anyway. They are only being maintained by consent and that consent will gradually wane. Already companies are beginning to start work again, there is more traffic about. As far as older people are concerned most of them are staying at home not for purely altruistic reasons but principally because they don't want to contract the disease. If they learn that they are to spend the rest of their days in solitary and the choice is to possibly die of the virus or definitely die of boredom many will opt for the former. When that happens it will be game over.

 

[C J Snarzell]

Boris Johnson's return to Downing Street and his door step speech seem to indicate that he won't be making any drastic steps to ease the lockdown on the 7th May. He has already emphasised he is worried about the risk of a second wave of the disease spreading if restrictions are lifted too soon.

The reports in the media seem to suggest the exit strategy will be based on the decreasing numbers of reported deaths each day - for example if the daily death rate falls below say 100 or even 50 people a day for at least 14 consecutive days then certain measures will be relaxed.

BJ has a gamble on his hands - we have now entered a 6th week of lockdown and to push it towards 9 or 10 weeks is really taking a gamble. Genuine decent law abiding people are still coping to some extent but as time goes on there will be a 'buckling' effect where people start to get restless. I am talking about people struggling with small children kept in doors or people kept from seeing loved ones.

The biggest issue is the economy and the fact people with small business who fall through the gap in the Chancellor's funding scheme (this is when certain businesses don't have recognised rates) and clearly hard working people are being forced to go under through no fault of their own. Business in the leisure & hospitality (such as gym's, health spa's, travel shops) industry are definitely going to suffer the worst fate as they will be the last places that BJ will allow to trade again.

CJ

 

[Meerkat]

Especially as it’s summer I wonder if they might allow local visiting. You can visit old folk but you don’t go inside and you stay two metres away. No exchanging cups of tea or toilet visits, just a quick chat.
It would have to be local only to start with - any distance and you will be going inside!

Another quickish win would be to free up the tradesmen, particular sole trader types.
Just need some guidelines - no isolated clients (except emergencies obvs), clients stay out the house, or at least in different rooms etc etc.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Especially as it’s summer I wonder if they might allow local visiting. You can visit old folk but you don’t go inside and you stay two metres away. No exchanging cups of tea or toilet visits, just a quick chat.
It would have to be local only to start with - any distance and you will be going inside!

Another quickish win would be to free up the tradesmen, particular sole trader types.
Just need some guidelines - no isolated clients (except emergencies obvs), clients stay out the house, or at least in different rooms etc etc.

The former can already be got away with if you get them some shopping. Plenty of people are doing it.

The latter is already allowed.

 

[Meerkat]

The former can already be got away with if you get them some shopping. Plenty of people are doing it.

The latter is already allowed.

Oh yeah (guilty m’lud) - I shouldn’t have limited it to old folk. So you could visit brothers/sisters etc.
Are tradesman working? I had got in my head that only emergency stuff was allowed. Haven’t seen many about.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Oh yeah (guilty m’lud) - I shouldn’t have limited it to old folk. So you could visit brothers/sisters etc.
Are tradesman working? I had got in my head that only emergency stuff was allowed. Haven’t seen many about.

I think many are choosing not to but I don't think anything is preventing them doing so.

 

[C J Snarzell]

I visited an old boy near where I live and I just stand against his garden wall while he chats fifteen feet away from me on at his front door. This is clearly okay - definitely when I get him a paper and his tea bags too, which I leave on the doorstep before he comes to his door!!!

 

[trebor79]

I wonder if once the death and infection rate is down to a relatively low level whether we could largely lift all of the restrictions and follow the Swedish model? Basically life as normal, but no large gatherings and smaller gatherings have certain rules (principally, outside if possible and handwashing/sanitisers to be available and used.
Seems to be working for them.

 

[Meerkat]

I wonder if once the death and infection rate is down to a relatively low level whether we could largely lift all of the restrictions and follow the Swedish model? Basically life as normal, but no large gatherings and smaller gatherings have certain rules (principally, outside if possible and handwashing/sanitisers to be available and used.
Seems to be working for them.

Sweden’s death rate might be lower than ours but it certainly isn’t pretty. And it’s pretty chilly up there so they wouldn’t be moving around like we would in the height of summer.