Exit strategy predictions

[Cowley]

DIY is not dissimilar though has greater safety risks. If someone was wanting to refit their bathroom/kitchen, 3 weeks off work would be an ideal time for this and they'd probably not be annoyed about it at all.

I think part of the problem with this (and I’m doing my own house up at the moment) is that to do a kitchen or bathroom you really want to go and look at a few things in a showroom setting.
I’m basically doing everything except the kitchen and bathroom at the moment because also the last time I did a bathroom I was constantly going backwards and forwards to the plumbing centre to get bits and bobs.
That’s why I’ve decided to leave those areas for now and tackle them when things start to get back to normal.

Another thing to bear in mind is that in the few days leading up to the lockdown places like B&Q were absolutely rammed with people trying to buy stuff for projects etc...

So when we eventually do start getting back to normal (whatever the new normal is) I think most people will be more concerned with getting some money back in at that point.

 

[westv]

I wonder when the requirement to work from home, if possible, will end. From my perspective it's been great being able to get out of bed and stroll down the stairs to "work".

 

[Bletchleyite]

I wonder when the requirement to work from home, if possible, will end. From my perspective it's been great being able to get out of bed and stroll down the stairs to "work".

I suspect people will be asked to work from home for quite a long time, possibly indefinitely, but it will move from "if it's possible in any vague way" as things are at present to "if you can actually do your full job", which is true of a lot of office work but not all of it. We may find things like people going in only 1-2 days a week for those things that can't be done remotely, say, allowing offices to have fewer people in and so maintain spacing.

 

[nlogax]

I wonder when the requirement to work from home, if possible, will end. From my perspective it's been great being able to get out of bed and stroll down the stairs to "work".

Weeks before the UK lockdown was extended my employer extended our (global) enforced WFH / no travel-period to early May. At some point our clients are going to return to their offices once lockdown ends or eases - but I imagine it'll then be a brave new world where we don't visit them unless we absolutely have to.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Weeks before the UK lockdown was extended my employer extended our (global) enforced WFH / no travel-period to early May. At some point our clients are going to return to their offices once lockdown ends or eases - but I imagine it'll then be a brave new world where we don't visit them unless we absolutely have to.

Welcome to the IT industry!

We've worked like that for at least 5 years now. It's odd - it was a near instant switch among clients from "we want you on site as we don't trust you not to be doing other work" to "we don't want to pay your expenses so work from home".

 

[HH]

I suspect people will be asked to work from home for quite a long time, possibly indefinitely, but it will move from "if it's possible in any vague way" as things are at present to "if you can actually do your full job", which is true of a lot of office work but not all of it. We may find things like people going in only 1-2 days a week for those things that can't be done remotely, say, allowing offices to have fewer people in and so maintain spacing.

This is my view and it is likely to have a significant effect on public transport, especially for London commuting.

 

[HH]

80% of Coronavirus deaths in the UK are in the over 60s.

The way out of this is age-related.

You've ignored the relationship to sex (women have far better outcomes than men) and obesity (as two examples).

Perhaps we should make all males stay at home, or anyone with a BMI over 30.

 

[nlogax]

Welcome to the IT industry!

We've worked like that for at least 5 years now. It's odd - it was a near instant switch among clients from "we want you on site as we don't trust you not to be doing other work" to "we don't want to pay your expenses so work from home".

Am in the same industry so yeah...I know how it goes. Sounds like we have very similar situations

 

[bramling]

This is my view and it is likely to have a significant effect on public transport, especially for London commuting.

Yes I agree. There will certainly be encouragement to work from home pretty much until all this is finally over I suspect. I don’t see what other alternative there is. In the meantime I suspect things will be sector based, although sensitive handling will be required.

We could quite easily get car-based workers back sooner rather than later subject to social distancing in workplaces, but squaring the issue of rail (and other public transport) commuting is going to be a big problem in the short and early medium term.

Whilst the lockdown has bought the time to implement measures such as we see in supermarkets, little or nothing has been done as regards transport. It’s a major problem, and I don’t think compulsory masks will be sufficient mitigation given all we’ve heard over the last few months is how masks aren’t effective!

 

[Chester1]

Carl Henegan on yesterday's Newsnight said that by Friday this week Government should have enough data and solid scientific evidence to set out its strategy for ending lockdown.

He gave the impression that this current three week lock down should be the last as the strategy can be put in place in 1-2 weeks. Iplayer about 7 minutes into the programme.

As Government are 'following the science' we will see if they agree.

He is probably right. The government is clearly planning and trying to calculate what it can loosen while keeping the R under one. Its PR machine is trying to hide it because they want the current measures to be followed until 7th May. Recent studies seem to suggest the R is currently about 0.7 so they don't have a huge amount of leeway but enough to make an impact on quality of life and the economy.

 

[HH]

He is probably right. The government is clearly planning and trying to calculate what it can loosen while keeping the R under zero. Its PR machine is trying to hide it because they want the current measures to be followed until 7th May. Recent studies seem to suggest the R is currently about 0.7 so they don't have a huge amount of leeway but enough to make an impact on quality of life and the economy.

They could strengthen some measures as a trade off. But in reality there's only one way to make relaxation work - public testing and proper contact tracing. Not convinced that they're headed in that direction though.

 

[Smidster]

One of the big challenges that Government is going to have in the next stage is how much segmentation is the public going to be willing to accept in terms of restrictions.

We know that this disease primarily targets older people but would people accept it if the policy was to remain in place for those over a given age? It is easier to hold a line when something applies to everyone - especially when you aren't saying that people can't see their grandparents for who knows how long.

Equally if things were to vary by region of the country - We think that London was hit first...how would people in Leeds / Manchester react if some restrictions were lifted inside the M25?

I would agree that other things, such as a general hope that people would work remotely, would be in place for a substantial period of time to come.

I just hope we start to get some answers soon - If only to give people a bit of clarity about what to expect.

 

[takno]

Equally if things were to vary by region of the country - We think that London was hit first...how would people in Leeds / Manchester react if some restrictions were lifted inside the M25?

I think they'd probably politely point out that the reasons London was hit hard (although not really any earlier) are structural to London and haven't gone away. If restrictions are eased by region based on risk then London is likely to be last

 

[HH]

We know that this disease primarily targets older people

No, we do not. We know that older people's immune systems are less able to cope, which is a different thing entirely.

 

[Bletchleyite]

No, we do not. We know that older people's immune systems are less able to cope, which is a different thing entirely.

Quite. The disease doesn't target anything, that assumes it has will and intent, which it doesn't.

 

[Meerkat]

It would really help if we had reliable data on transmission.
We all, seemingly reasonably, assume public transport is a super spreader, but we don’t actually know that.
If you keep symptomatic people off, and everyone washes their hands??? Could you cut risk in a big way if there was a time limit - say 15 mins? What is a safe distance?

ps not at all convinced by masks on public transport. I think contact would be a bigger issue, and wearing a mask leads to loads of face touching.

 

[Mogster]

It would really help if we had reliable data on transmission.
We all, seemingly reasonably, assume public transport is a super spreader, but we don’t actually know that.
If you keep symptomatic people off, and everyone washes their hands??? Could you cut risk in a big way if there was a time limit - say 15 mins? What is a safe distance?

ps not at all convinced by masks on public transport. I think contact would be a bigger issue, and wearing a mask leads to loads of face touching.

Other than buying food or seeking medical treatment no one who’s symptomatic should be leaving their house now. If you have symptoms then you shouldn’t be using public transport or at work.

Agree about masks. I don’t really see the point for people outside healthcare and without symptoms. The suggested negatives of increased face touching and contamination via re-wearing of contaminated masks out weigh the positives.

Public service workers asking to wear PPE on return to work (transport and teachers) most likely haven’t had to wear it up to now. Using it for long periods is a grim experience.

 

[Mojo]

ps not at all convinced by masks on public transport. I think contact would be a bigger issue, and wearing a mask leads to loads of face touching.

Agree about masks. I don’t really see the point for people outside healthcare and without symptoms. The suggested negatives of increased face touching and contamination via re-wearing of contaminated masks out weigh the positives.

I think the biggest concern with regard to wearing masks, is that it would take them away from people that genuinely need them.

Already, most dental practices, which are allowed to stay open for emergency treatment (just not for checkups, teeth whitening, etc), are having to remain closed because of the lack of masks. I know someone who is in a significant amount of pain because of something that could be resolved by an emergency dentist, and whom is a key worker, but is unable to get an appointment at their usual dentist, or anywhere else in their city.

 

[111-111-1]

Other than buying food or seeking medical treatment no one who’s symptomatic should be leaving their house now. If you have symptoms then you shouldn’t be using public transport or at work.

Agree about masks. I don’t really see the point for people outside healthcare and without symptoms. The suggested negatives of increased face touching and contamination via re-wearing of contaminated masks out weigh the positives.

Public service workers asking to wear PPE on return to work (transport and teachers) most likely haven’t had to wear it up to now. Using it for long periods is a grim experience.

If you are showing symptoms you must not leave your home for anything other than medical attention which NHS111 or your GP has advised.

Exercise must be taken within your home and food must be delivered.

 

[111-111-1]

If you are showing symptoms you must not leave your home for anything other than medical attention which NHS111 or your GP has advised.

Exercise must be taken within your home and food must be delivered.

It does allow public transport to get yourself home if symptoms start at work

 

[Mogster]

I think the biggest concern with regard to wearing masks, is that it would take them away from people that genuinely need them.

Already, most dental practices, which are allowed to stay open for emergency treatment (just not for checkups, teeth whitening, etc), are having to remain closed because of the lack of masks. I know someone who is in a significant amount of pain because of something that could be resolved by an emergency dentist, and whom is a key worker, but is unable to get an appointment at their usual dentist, or anywhere else in their city.

Agree. But teaching and transport unions seem to be suggesting that provision of PPE for their staff may be a prerequisite for returning to work as normal.

There is the argument that people could make their own masks, but then you have serious issues with re-use and hygiene. I do wonder about people with breathing difficulties having to place a piece of damp fabric over their face for long periods.

 

[Greybeard33]

Agree about masks. I don’t really see the point for people outside healthcare and without symptoms. The suggested negatives of increased face touching and contamination via re-wearing of contaminated masks out weigh the positives.

I think the biggest concern with regard to wearing masks, is that it would take them away from people that genuinely need them.

Quite. I think the arguments against mask wearing are basically a smokescreen - the real reason is the fear of panic buying exacerbating the world shortage of masks.

If I am the only one wearing a mask, increased face touching and contamination via reuse might well cancel out any protection it gives me. But if everyone around me is also wearing one, those few of them who are pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic, but are nevertheless shedding virus, will exhale fewer droplets in my direction than if they were maskless. That, not my own mask, is what will reduce my risk of getting infected, particularly if we are in a situation, e.g. on public transport, where it is impractical to maintain 2m physical distance.

Tests have shown that homemade masks, constructed of two layers of cotton, can significantly reduce the amount of virus exhaled.

See this Czech Republic public information video, which clearly explains the principle - "I protect you, you protect me".

 

[Meerkat]

Quite. I think the arguments against mask wearing are basically a smokescreen - the real reason is the fear of panic buying exacerbating the world shortage of masks.

If I am the only one wearing a mask, increased face touching and contamination via reuse might well cancel out any protection it gives me. But if everyone around me is also wearing one, those few of them who are pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic, but are nevertheless shedding virus, will exhale fewer droplets in my direction than if they were maskless. That, not my own mask, is what will reduce my risk of getting infected, particularly if we are in a situation, e.g. on public transport, where it is impractical to maintain 2m physical distance.

Tests have shown that homemade masks, constructed of two layers of cotton, can significantly reduce the amount of virus exhaled.

See this Czech Republic public information video, which clearly explains the principle - "I protect you, you protect me".

Or wear masks and the infected person fiddles with theirs, touches the handholds, you touch the handhold, fiddle with your mask......

 

[111-111-1]

Or wear masks and the infected person fiddles with theirs, touches the handholds, you touch the handhold, fiddle with your mask......

In certain parts of the world affected by SARS many places have hand sanitiser available on entry, possible that they will be provided here and a lot more of us will be carrying and using it as routine in the future,

 

[Cardiff123]

Despite all of the exit strategy predictions that are flying around, it's clear that the way out of 'lockdown' (and it's not really a 'lockdown' in the UK when you look at the true 'lockdowns' that were seen in France, Spain and Italy) is mass testing of absolutely anyone who has Covid-19 symptoms, tracing all of their contacts, and isolating them as well. In countries where this has been done - South Korea, Australia, Germany, the infection and death rates have stayed low. There's no point in trying to cut corners and relying on an app to do this - not everyone will take it up. I sometimes go out without my phone if I'm just going out for a walk.

The government should be mass recruiting people now to start setting up community teams to carry out the mass "test, trace and isolate" task. Are they? Instead all we see in the daily press conferences is repeated broken promises on PPE, testing targets massively missed, and in recent days public expectations being built up that there will be a vaccine for everyone by September.

The Sunday Times article from this weekend really is scary reading of how this government was asleep at the wheel on this in January and February when alarm bells were getting louder.

 

[Mogster]

Or wear masks and the infected person fiddles with theirs, touches the handholds, you touch the handhold, fiddle with your mask......

Yes. Face touching is very bad, as is fitting a mask with contaminated hands. When this all kicked off I was using public transport still and started to make a real effort not to touch my face unless I’d used hand sanitiser directly before. You really need to carefully clean your hands before you fit the mask or the mask is pointless.

After watching the videos from Spanish public transport I came to the conclusion I wouldn’t be happy using a mask someone had handed to me unless it was in unopened single packaging, preferably sterile. Even if the person handing out the masks is wearing gloves there’s no guarantee the gloves are clean, they could have been wearing them for an hour...

I can see if paper masks are handed out freely on public transport then they will be discarded haphazardly. This is the UK after all, not Tokyo or Singapore, train carriages, buses and stations will be littered with the things, biologically contaminated rubbish that someone then has to clean up.

 

[sjpowermac]

Agree. But teaching and transport unions seem to be suggesting that provision of PPE for their staff may be a prerequisite for returning to work as normal.

There is the argument that people could make their own masks, but then you have serious issues with re-use and hygiene. I do wonder about people with breathing difficulties having to place a piece of damp fabric over their face for long periods.

I wouldn’t fret about teachers depleting the stock of N95s. Here’s a quote for you from the NASUWT website:

‘The medical advice indicates that face masks may not be an effective protection for individuals against the spread of coronavirus.’

Coronavirus FAQs

Teachers' frequently asked questions (FAQs) about coronavirus (COVID-19) answered

www.nasuwt.org.uk

I’m really not certain where you have taken your information from, perhaps you could provide a link?

I wouldn’t worry in the slightest about the teaching unions, they are absolutely toothless.

 

[Mogster]

I’m really not certain where you have taken your information from, perhaps you could provide a link?

Teachers demand PPE as they say they should not be 'guinea pigs' for lock down exit strategy

Teachers' health must not be put at risk from a "political desire" to re-open schools, teacher union boss says

www.telegraph.co.uk

Dr Patrick Roach, general secretary of the National Association of Schoolmasters Union of Women Teachers (NASUWT) said that people would be “horrified” if schools were used as a testing ground for the easing of restrictions.

“Schools should only be fully reopened when this is supported by scientific evidence,” he told The Telegraph. “We have to make sure that teachers and support staff have access to PPE and can observe social distancing. Our view is that those are important pre-conditions for schools to be reopened.

“PPE could be anything ranging from soap to gloves, aprons and in some cases face masks. The health of teachers and support staff must not be put at risk as a result of any political desire to re-open schools.”

 

[yorkie]

The virus isn't going to go away and we can't lockdown forever.

Covid-19: 'We must learn to live with the virus'

The coronavirus is not going to go away, says WHO's special envoy for Covid-19 David Nabarro.

www.bbc.co.uk

WHO's Nabarro: We must learn to live with Covid-19

The coronavirus is not going to go away so we must learn to live with it, the World Health Organisation's special envoy for Covid-19, David Nabarro has said.

He told Hardtalk's Stephen Sackur that it was not known how long it would take to develop a treatment or a vaccine.

"We have all got to learn to live with this virus, to do our business with this virus in our presence, to have social relations with this virus in our presence and not to be continuously having to be in lockdown because of the widespread infections that can occur," Mr Nabarro added.

Despite all of the exit strategy predictions that are flying around, it's clear that the way out of 'lockdown' (and it's not really a 'lockdown' in the UK when you look at the true 'lockdowns' that were seen in France, Spain and Italy) is mass testing of absolutely anyone who has Covid-19 symptoms, tracing all of their contacts, and isolating them as well....

Contract tracing is completely impracticable. The methods used by countries such as South Korea have been discussed on the forum before; it won't work in the UK and it's far too late for that anyway.

Also loads of people who get the virus are asymptomatic.

See previous discussion here https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...d-death-rate-of-covid-19.203500/#post-4538339 (it may even have been discussed in other threads too!)

 

[Bletchleyite]

Contract tracing is completely impracticable. The methods used by countries such as South Korea have been discussed on the forum before; it won't work in the UK and it's far too late for that anyway.

Other than a vaccine or treatment, contact tracing, quarantining and testing are the only practical ways out.

Or do you propose just letting it burn unchecked through the population with medical treatment not offered, wiping out everyone's Mum, Dad, Nan and Grandad? People were concerned about rioting, if that happened there would be riots.