Exit strategy predictions

[Huntergreed]

The Scottish Government have released a document with regards to the exit strategy. First Minister Nicola Sturgeon discussed the exit strategy for Scotland during Scotland’s daily lunchtime conference today, emphasising that the next few months will likely be difficult, all mass gatherings are prohibited for a number of months, and she stated that there may be a need to re-impose the current restrictions if the evidence deems that this action is necessary. There were no specific points made, however they suggested only opening businesses where staff and customers can stay 2 or more metres apart and not letting all children attend school at the same time, stating it may be necessary to re-design classrooms to enforce social distancing in this setting. Letting out one particular group (no conditions, certain age groups) was completely ruled out, lifting the lockdown on a regional basis and having different measures apply to different geographic areas was suggested as a possible strategy. I wonder if Westminster will discuss a similar strategy in the near future.

The document released by the Scottish Government has been attached to this post.

 

[Meerkat]

I said it wasn't awful for Premier League clubs to lose match day revenue, not that it wasn't important. Spurs built a new stadium at huge cost because increases revenue and will pay for itself in the long term. However, they can still go for months or even a season without match day revenue, especially if the rights to Premier League matches not currently broadcast in UK are sold (only 200 out of 380 matches are broadcast in UK). There are many Premier League Clubs where match day revenue accounts for only about 20% of revenue. For Liverpool it is barely over 25%. TV revenue is a much bigger income stream. For the Premier League the financial incentive is to get the matches played if at all possible, in order to avoid paying back £762m of TV money for this seasons matches not yet broadcast. Most Premier League clubs share of that is comparable to an entire seasons match day revenue.

So even Liverpool would be 25% down on revenue - that’s going to hurt

 

[Domh245]

But then is good mental health essential for life? How would human society be if we just did the very basics?

It wouldn't be one that I'd want to live in

 

[Bantamzen]

The Scottish Government have released a document with regards to the exit strategy. First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has emphasised that the next few months will likely be difficult, all mass gatherings are now prohibited for the remainder of 2020, and she stated that there may be a need to re-impose the current restrictions if the evidence deems that this action is necessary. There were no specific points made, however they suggested only opening businesses where staff and customers can stay 2 or more metres apart and not letting all children attend school at the same time, stating it may be necessary to re-design classrooms to enforce social distancing in this setting. Letting out one particular group (no conditions, certain age groups) was completely ruled out. I wonder if Westminster will discuss a similar strategy in the near future.

The document released by the Scottish Government has been attached to this post.

I just read this online, and to be honest I think they would just have been better waiting until the UK government go about setting out the way forward, as it really seemed like a whole lot of nothing dressed up as a whole lot of nothing.

It wouldn't be one that I'd want to live in

To be fair it wouldn't last very long, it would likely go out with a bang, literally a very big bang!

 

[Bletchleyite]

The Scottish Government have released a document with regards to the exit strategy. First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has emphasised that the next few months will likely be difficult, all mass gatherings are now prohibited for the remainder of 2020

Where does it say that and what is the definition of a "mass gathering"?

 

[Bletchleyite]

I just read this online, and to be honest I think they would just have been better waiting until the UK government go about setting out the way forward, as it really seemed like a whole lot of nothing dressed up as a whole lot of nothing.

She just can't resist.

 

[Huntergreed]

Where does it say that and what is the definition of a "mass gathering"?

Upon checking this, it was not for the end of the year, it was simply for 'some months to come', apologies for this.

 

[Meerkat]

The Scottish Government have released a document with regards to the exit strategy. First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has emphasised that the next few months will likely be difficult, all mass gatherings are prohibited for a number of months, and she stated that there may be a need to re-impose the current restrictions if the evidence deems that this action is necessary. There were no specific points made, however they suggested only opening businesses where staff and customers can stay 2 or more metres apart and not letting all children attend school at the same time, stating it may be necessary to re-design classrooms to enforce social distancing in this setting. Letting out one particular group (no conditions, certain age groups) was completely ruled out, lifting the lockdown on a regional basis and having different measures apply to different geographic areas was suggested as a possible strategy. I wonder if Westminster will discuss a similar strategy in the near future.

The document released by the Scottish Government has been attached to this post.

I read it very fast but I didn’t see anything ruling out releasing particular groups.
Basically that was a typical consultant document - 26 pages of saying almost nothing!

 

[takno]

I read it very fast but I didn’t see anything ruling out releasing particular groups.
Basically that was a typical consultant document - 26 pages of saying almost nothing!

They missed some spacing tricks. Any consultant worth their salt would have had that up to 30

 

[Mogster]

But you said the number was those who had covid-19 on their death certificates - not even remotely the same thing.

As I understand it the ONS 10 day stats include everything, even suspected but unconfirmed Covid cases from care home and community deaths.

They have the advantage also that they have totals for all deaths.

I could see some sort of limited service from barbers/hairdressers as possible. Hairdresser wears full PPE (client masks not viable) and only single-number clipper cuts available so they are very quick. Pre-booked only so no waiting inside.

I can see barber shops opening very soon. Possibly with face shields and gloves recommended for staff and instructions to turn away people who have obvious symptoms. Face shields sound practical and aren’t too uncomfortable in extended wear.

 

[Meerkat]

I can see barber shops opening very soon. Possibly with face shields and gloves recommended for staff and instructions to turn away people who have obvious symptoms. Face shields sound practical and aren’t too uncomfortable in extended wear.

How soon? I will need to make the decision whether to buy clippers and attempt it myself soon.....

 

[bramling]

Not at all, - there is obviously (hopefully) a point in the future where many activities, essential for normal life can be pursued with the risk adequately managed. A warning that you might get infected isn't managing the risk as it wouldn't give weight to the risk to everybody else that visitors to the pub would expose everybody else that they have close social contact with, whether deliberately of inadvertently.
Unfortunately for those who have chosen a career in pubs and rely on it for an income, drinking isn't one of those activities essential for normal life, - except in the mind of an alcoholic of course.

Have to agree with this, especially bearing in mind the cost and impact alcohol has on the NHS. Having said that, alcohol is of course still available for domestic consumption, which judging by the state of the shelves and seeing what’s in trollies in supermarkets I’ve been in, is something some people are very much doing at the moment.

 

[CaptainHaddock]

Have to agree with this, especially bearing in mind the cost and impact alcohol has on the NHS. Having said that, alcohol is of course still available for domestic consumption, which judging by the state of the shelves and seeing what’s in trollies in supermarkets I’ve been in, is something some people are very much doing at the moment.

Some would argue that drinking at home is more likely to lead to alcoholism than drinking in pubs as, in a pub environment, you have staff keeping an eye on customers and monitoring how drunk they get. No such safeguards at home; you could order 24 cans of Stella online and drink the lot in one go!

 

[takno]

Some would argue that drinking at home is more likely to lead to alcoholism than drinking in pubs as, in a pub environment, you have staff keeping an eye on customers and monitoring how drunk they get. No such safeguards at home; you could order 24 cans of Stella online and drink the lot in one go!

I'm certainly getting through a lot more at the moment. Keeping it a walk away in the pub is a lot safer than keeping in the fridge next to my sofa. Either way it entirely misses the point that most people are in the pub to socialise with friends and meet strangers. We could talk about coffee shops and cafes if you want to take the alcohol out of it. Those things may not be essential activities in the short term, but people can't be forced to live without them for any prolonged period

 

[nedchester]

I'm certainly getting through a lot more at the moment. Keeping it a walk away in the pub is a lot safer than keeping in the fridge next to my sofa. Either way it entirely misses the point that most people are in the pub to socialise with friends and meet strangers. We could talk about coffee shops and cafes if you want to take the alcohol out of it. Those things may not be essential activities in the short term, but people can't be forced to live without them for any prolonged period

It's all about socialisation. OK it's not essential you can 'live' without it but it makes the quality of life very poor. That will become more important in the coming months.

 

[bramling]

It's all about socialisation. OK it's not essential you can 'live' without it but it makes the quality of life very poor. That will become more important in the coming months.

The difficulty is that at this moment we have a choice between scaling back socialising for a period of time, or granny and grandad potentially can’t safely leave home at all.

Getting the schools back will possibly really help, as I think it would put a stop to a lot of the mass-honeypot frenzies we’ve seen at times, which would allow such activities to be undertaken with more distancing. The current position is essentially that every day is a bank holiday weekend day for many, and that will ultimately cause more problems that it solves if elements of the current strict lockdown are eased.

The more we can have social distancing inherently built in to our daily lives, the more we can get back to some level of normality for pretty much everyone. The unfortunate exception is elements of the hospitality industry, as I can see the situation where many businesses won’t be viable based on heavily reduced custom. This is unfortunate, but perhaps realistic, so it will need some businesses to adapt (eg trying to max out on takeaways), the public to try to support them as far as possible in their modified form, and perhaps some government support. This does of course ignore the fact that some of this may be difficult with what’s likely to be a global recession.

 

[greyman42]

I would be absolutely amazed if this was not ongoing. To me the obvious measures are:
- Tables spaced out more than 2m (fortunately in the good weather people can spread into the beer garden)
- Advance reservation
- A request (not enforceable, I know) of only one household per table, so it still won't really work to meet your mates but that's off the agenda for a while anyway
- Table service only, no bar service
- No cash

I don't see that there'd be a huge risk at all with all of those in place.

Outside of central London, nearly all pubs are pretty quiet during the week so people who wish to stand apart from other people could. It is the weekend when pubs are packed.

 

[trebor79]

I just read this online, and to be honest I think they would just have been better waiting until the UK government go about setting out the way forward, as it really seemed like a whole lot of nothing dressed up as a whole lot of nothing.

Yes I wasn't impressed with it. It looks and reads like a first draft f something that has been knocked up in someone's evening whilst watching a box set.
Just a lot of waffle that boils down to "This is going to go on for ages and probably best not to think life's going to go back to how it was, as you'll be disappointed".

 

[takno]

Yes I wasn't impressed with it. It looks and reads like a first draft f something that has been knocked up in someone's evening whilst watching a box set.
Just a lot of waffle that boils down to "This is going to go on for ages and probably best not to think life's going to go back to how it was, as you'll be disappointed".

I agree it isn't impressive, but it is important, because at least it sets out a framework and key targets. For example you can criticise the whole basis by pointing out that we have no really effective way of measuring R, so R<1 is really just a way of saying "do whatever we say because science". Or you could read it and weep at the open cluelessness that screams "we don't know why we're doing this and we don't know how to stop". Above all though there is a message of hope that "above all, we will be panicked into loosening up by public reaction to the actions of other European governments"

 

[trebor79]

I agree it isn't impressive, but it is important, because at least it sets out a framework and key targets. For example you can criticise the whole basis by pointing out that we have no really effective way of measuring R, so R<1 is really just a way of saying "do whatever we say because science". Or you could read it and weep at the open cluelessness that screams "we don't know why we're doing this and we don't know how to stop". Above all though there is a message of hope that "above all, we will be panicked into loosening up by public reaction to the actions of other European governments"

Well indeed. There isn't even an attempt at original thought. They should be looking to China, South Korea etc who have either not had to lockdown or who have emerged from lockdown several weeks ago and seem to managing to contain it to very low levels of infection.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Well indeed. There isn't even an attempt at original thought. They should be looking to China, South Korea etc who have either not had to lockdown or who have emerged from lockdown several weeks ago and seem to managing to contain it to very low levels of infection.

That assumes China aren't telling big fat lies. I'm more inclined to think they are.

 

[404250]

How soon? I will need to make the decision whether to buy clippers and attempt it myself soon.....

I'm amazed hairdressers/barbers are near top of the list to re-open. Very close contact and not essential. Why is this?

 

[takno]

I'm amazed hairdressers/barbers are near top of the list to re-open. Very close contact and not essential. Why is this?

Quietish shops, very much the type of small business that won't make it through, but above very very important to maintaining a sense of normality. The hairdresser and customer are mostly not facing each other, the contact isn't massively prolonged and there are generally reasonable sanitary facilities on-site. Can't see why they'd be higher risk than other shops

 

[404250]

Quietish shops, very much the type of small business that won't make it through, but above very very important to maintaining a sense of normality. The hairdresser and customer are mostly not facing each other, the contact isn't massively prolonged and there are generally reasonable sanitary facilities on-site. Can't see why they'd be higher risk than other shops

Clothing shop for instance - you wouldn't need to go near staff. Pay with card. No person to person touching. Keep one metre away. Fast transaction.

 

[Mogster]

I'm amazed hairdressers/barbers are near top of the list to re-open. Very close contact and not essential. Why is this?

It is viewed as essential by many, or at least very very inconvenient.

I think the logic is that it’s an important service, they only see one person at a time and they won’t have lots of people on site. You could mitigate the close contact as dentists do with face shields for the staff and give each customer no moe than 15 minutes.

They were one of the last businesses to close I’ll be very surprised if they aren’t one of the first to re-open. Some stayed open till they were ordered to close arguing they are an essential service.

 

[MarkyT]

That assumes China aren't telling big fat lies. I'm more inclined to think they are.

While they may have been caught napping, may have lied to the rest of the world as to the extent of their crisis in the beginning while securing as much equipment and PPE supplies as they could from abroad, the very nature of their brutal and repressive state apparatus was perfect for enforcing internal lockdowns, tracking, travel restrictions and state direction of industrial production necessary for the outbreak's suppression, and I can't see any rational reason why they would not have wanted to control it effectively within their borders using every method possible. Their declared figures for the progress of the outbreak sense checks against international benchmarks according to many analysts. Even if one assigns them the most belligerent of motives they would surely want to get their economy back on track as soon as possible to regain headway in the world economic race while much of the rest of the world in the west was still in chaos.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Clothing shop for instance - you wouldn't need to go near staff. Pay with card. No person to person touching. Keep one metre away. Fast transaction.

The whole basis of clothes shops is browsing and trying on. If that isn't going to be allowed, there's no point opening the shops, you might as well buy online.

 

[Meerkat]

Clothing shop for instance - you wouldn't need to go near staff. Pay with card. No person to person touching. Keep one metre away. Fast transaction.

Clothing is difficult. You would need to heavily restrict entry into the shop as dawdling in aisles is standard practice. Also those hangers get touched a lot as people look for the right size and pull things out for a look.
are you going to ban trying things on. If so what do you do with returns?
i reckon big stores could do it, with queuing inside, but I am not sure how a row of small shops are going to keep people apart inside, nor how they keep queues apart with narrow frontage onto pavements.
There is also the parking issue. Currently is generally free so no buttons need pressing, but a lot of councils rely on parking charges to keep their budget afloat.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It is viewed as essential by many, or at least very very inconvenient.

Also possibly discriminatory. As a bloke I'm happy to do a simple job with clippers (reckon I'll do one more #0 to be honest, it's slightly easier than doing it with the combs on and it's not like anyone will care at the moment ). Most women won't be happy for that, and older people may not physically be able to cut their own hair as it does involve a small amount of contortionism to do the back.

 

[Mag_seven]

I'm amazed hairdressers/barbers are near top of the list to re-open.

Where is this "list" - is it an official government document or just speculation?