Exit strategy predictions

[yorksrob]

I don’t think anyone is seriously advocating having a lockdown which lasts until a vaccine which might not come at all (except those enjoying the novelty of a paid set of bank holidays).

The current lockdown is rapidly getting to the point of being pointless IMO, we’d now be better off trying to make a success of social distancing.

It's not broken down round my way. Yes, there's more traffic, but people are still keeping their distance.

However, I agree that there needs to be planning to come out of it.

 

[Adam Williams]

I don’t think that’s true at all. Where I am there’s only about twenty percent of the usual traffic on the roads (we live next to a main road), the city centre is almost empty, the lanes are far far quiter than normal and there’s still virtually no-one on public transport.
Maybe it’s different where you are but it’s clearly not the same everywhere.

I agree, it's had a dramatic impact here in Warwickshire too. I see lots of 99% empty buses going to and fro; other traffic has massively reduced.

I think we can see the impact in the NHS statistics too (appreciating there are limitations to take into account when interpreting this data) and e.g. Google's mobility reports.

 

[bramling]

It's not broken down round my way. Yes, there's more traffic, but people are still keeping their distance.

However, I agree that there needs to be planning to come out of it.

I can only speak for my area, it is genuinely pleasing to hear that this might not be the case everywhere.

Here it’s gone to the point where we are very conspicuously back to normal off-peak traffic levels. One does have to wonder where everyone’s going on a Sunday evening?

Trains and buses remain very empty of course - I suppose it takes a degree of nerve to try and get on an empty train as the non-key-workers *really* do stand out like a sore thumb (as some of the drug dealers have found out to their disbenefit!).

 

[HH]

I think the point is that whilst the lockdown has its place, it's no more sustainable in the medium term from a social wellbeing point of view, than it is from an economic one. It will not be sustainable until a vaccine comes along.

Is anyone suggesting that the current lockdown should be in place until a vaccine comes along? If so, I haven't seen it.

 

[HH]

I agree with the point though. I don't think it would be sustainable to remain in lockdown for 18 months.

I repeat, I don't think that anyone is suggesting that it should. To make it clearer, no-one is suggesting it, because it is so obviously a very dumb idea.

So, if anyone is getting themselves in a stew about it, they should calm down and take a chill pill.

 

[RealTrains07]

I don’t think anyone is seriously advocating having a lockdown which lasts until a vaccine which might not come at all (except those enjoying the novelty of a paid set of bank holidays).

The current lockdown is rapidly getting to the point of being pointless IMO, we’d now be better off trying to make a success of social distancing.

Agreed. Personally I for one did support lockdown at the beginning but it isn’t sustainable past 3 months let alone 6, 12 or 18.

We need to move forward now and see what happens with social distancing and how the people react going foward.

I don’t think that’s true at all. Where I am there’s only about twenty percent of the usual traffic on the roads (we live next to a main road), the city centre is almost empty, the lanes are far far quiter than normal and there’s still virtually no-one on public transport.
Maybe it’s different where you are but it’s clearly not the same everywhere.

Agreed. As far as trains are concerned the situation is the same pretty much everywhere no matter which part of the network you live. On the roads thoughs where I live traffic was barely about the first few weeks but recently the amount of traffic is picking up again to pre covid levels. It does vary across the country.

Just like everywhere in the country will have different amounts of people complying and not complying once the lockdown starts being lifted

 

[yorksrob]

I can only speak for my area, it is genuinely pleasing to hear that this might not be the case everywhere.

Here it’s gone to the point where we are very conspicuously back to normal off-peak traffic levels. One does have to wonder where everyone’s going on a Sunday evening?

Trains and buses remain very empty of course - I suppose it takes a degree of nerve to try and get on an empty train as the non-key-workers *really* do stand out like a sore thumb (as some of the drug dealers have found out to their disbenefit!).

If you can't work from home, you're allowed to go to work, whether you're a key worker or not. Anyone deliberately causing problems for other workers n public transport is engaging in anti-social behaviour and should be reprimanded for it.

 

[yorksrob]

I repeat, I don't think that anyone is suggesting that it should. To make it clearer, no-one is suggesting it, because it is so obviously a very dumb idea.

So, if anyone is getting themselves in a stew about it, they should calm down and take a chill pill.

In that case, I'm not sure what the point of the "I can manage in lockdown for ever, so should everyone else be able to" competition is.

 

[HH]

In that case, I'm not sure what the point of the "I can manage in lockdown for ever, so should everyone else be able to" competition is.

Is there one? I don't think anyone could manage it forever. A few weeks, on the other hand...

 

[yorksrob]

Is there one? I don't think anyone could manage it forever. A few weeks, on the other hand...

There seems to be on this forum, yes.

I'm afraid it boils down to how long the "few weeks" lasts.

 

[HH]

There seems to be on this forum, yes.

I'm afraid it boils down to how long the "few weeks" lasts.

Sorry, I haven't seen any.

As for how long, well it's as long as a piece of string. But the string won't always be the same thickness. I'm sure that everyone will be fed up by the end, but I'm surprised that so many have already reached the end of their tether after such a short time.

 

[HH]

I think its now the start of week 7 from Monday. So not really a short time.
And a "few weeks" could be another 7 weeks, or even months from what i can see.

It's quite short compared to WW2 (Boris's favourite comparator, not to mention Captain Tom).

The string, as I intimated, is likely to be many months (weeks isn't even possible), but it probably will be eased over time.

 

[scotrail158713]

I think its now the start of week 7 from Monday. So not really a short time.
And a "few weeks" could be another 7 weeks, or even months from what i can see.

Agreed. I wouldn’t describe 6 weeks as a “short time” to be locked down at home.

 

[scotrail158713]

It's quite short compared to WW2 (Boris's favourite comparator, not to mention Captain Tom).

The string, as I intimated, is likely to be many months (weeks isn't even possible), but it probably will be eased over time.

People were allowed to leave their homes for more than just food or exercise once a day during WW2 though

 

[HH]

People were allowed to leave their homes for more than just food or exercise once a day during WW2 though

Rationing and U-boats meant there wasn't so much food, and one of the frequent reasons to leave home was to go to a bomb shelter. Staying at home might lose your life.

I know which I'd rather be living through. YMMV.

 

[bramling]

If you can't work from home, you're allowed to go to work, whether you're a key worker or not. Anyone deliberately causing problems for other workers n public transport is engaging in anti-social behaviour and should be reprimanded for it.

In London there are large signs at at every station entrance. I forget the exact wording, but it’s along the lines of “Essential workers, you can travel, thank you; everyone else, go home”.

Evidently there’s some scope for definition of essential, but a family with buckets and spades on a Brighton train is going to draw attention to themselves. To a very great extent this has proved quite self-enforcing, as those who know they shouldn’t be there haven’t generally been trying it on (apart from your stereotypical hoody types on services like Thameslink to Rainham!).

 

[StephenHunter]

The British didn't have problems staying fed themselves - the rationing system worked - but those in Occupied Europe had a pretty bad time of it, especially with much of their local produce shoved into boxcars and sent off to Germany.

 

[HH]

Agreed. I wouldn’t describe 6 weeks as a “short time” to be locked down at home.

But you're not locked down all the time. You can go out for food, medicine, exercise and work.

 

[StephenHunter]

That gets pretty old, pretty quick.

 

[HH]

The British didn't have problems staying fed themselves - the rationing system worked - but those in Occupied Europe had a pretty bad time of it, especially with much of their local produce shoved into boxcars and sent off to Germany.

Yes, but you couldn't have much imported food. God forbid that people these days couldn't have their kiwi fruits or mangoes.

 

[HH]

That gets pretty old, pretty quick.

So does getting bombed. Just ask the people in Syria.

 

[yorksrob]

In London there are large signs at at every station entrance. I forget the exact wording, but it’s along the lines of “Essential workers, you can travel, thank you; everyone else, go home”.

Well, then somebody ought to tell the Government because that's clearly contrary to the Government guidelines.

 

[StephenHunter]

Exactly. "Other people are suffering so much more" doesn't mean your own suffering isn't bad and to be honest, I really wish people would stop doing that when talking to people with mental health issues, because it doesn't help in the slightest.

 

[bramling]

Well, then somebody ought to tell the Government because that's clearly contrary to the Government guidelines.

I really think the government are very aware of the existence of these signs...

 

[HH]

I really think the government are very aware of the existence of these signs...

That doesn't necessarily mean that they approve of them.

 

[Cowley]

Exactly. "Other people are suffering so much more" doesn't mean your own suffering isn't bad and to be honest, I really wish people would stop doing that when talking to people with mental health issues, because it doesn't help in the slightest.

Absolutely. No-one has the right to tell people how they should be feeling and everyone deals/copes with things in different ways.


And on that note this is a final reminder that this thread is not for discussing mental health issues, I’ve already linked to that thread once but here it again:

COVID-19 and the lockdown effects on mental health.

One thing nobody who actually cared about people would do would be to just pick up "mental health" as a reason for wanting restrictions to be reduced. The fact is that healthcare for the causes of suicide are very poor in this country. Some people are able to access literally no support...

www.railforums.co.uk

 

[bramling]

That doesn't necessarily mean that they approve of them.

I’m pretty sure they are fully approved. We’re not talking about unofficial signs made up by staff here, these are officially produced and displayed at every single LU station. Indeed a few NR stations seem to have helped themselves to some too.

This is on top of PA messages playing at main stations which convey a similar message. Indeed if I remember rightly the PA message starts with “this is a message from the government”.

 

[backontrack]

Points to whoever said we'll see a new slogan!

Johnson seeks more sophisticated slogan to exit lockdown | Financial Times

Downing St plans nuanced messaging strategy focused on getting economy moving again

www.ft.com

This government, since 2015, have used slogans and soundbites on balance probably more than any other administration worldwide. It honestly wouldn't surprise me if we see a few more slogans over the next few months as restrictions are eased.

 

[yorksrob]

I’m pretty sure they are fully approved. We’re not talking about unofficial signs made up by staff here, these are officially produced and displayed at every single LU station. Indeed a few NR stations seem to have helped themselves to some too.

This is on top of PA messages playing at main stations which convey a similar message. Indeed if I remember rightly the PA message starts with “this is a message from the government”.

The Government guidance is very clear on this. If you can't work from home, you can go in to work.

 

[HH]

I’m pretty sure they are fully approved. We’re not talking about unofficial signs made up by staff here, these are officially produced and displayed at every single LU station. Indeed a few NR stations seem to have helped themselves to some too.

This is on top of PA messages playing at main stations which convey a similar message. Indeed if I remember rightly the PA message starts with “this is a message from the government”.

Government is devolved, so the architect of these signs is not Westminster.