First win Intercity West Coast franchise

[WatcherZero]

See everyone trys to jump on me because they have an agenda to prove, sure I make mistakes but im not intentionally misleading as several people just proved. People are too eager to believe Firsts claims and not experienced enough to challenge all sources as suspect, especielly those designed to convey a message to a certain audience like shareholders (First) or the press (Virgin). Sometimes its whats not said or avoided answering that tells the true story.

 

[tbtc]

As you say, what O'Toole said was that FGW was around the mid 40's and TPE around 50% (which was the level of seat occupancy that he wanted to achieve on WC - an increase of 10 points)

If they can increase the passenger numbers from the current 35% to around 45% then that's a big increase in revenue at virtually no (additional) cost.

 

[jon0844]

How would that be managed on the existing stock? What is likely to happen is that STD will stay largely as is, the current 1ST fares will become this middle fare and a new, much higher fare for 1ST without changing much if anything.

I would expect that rather than convert one more first class to standard, you could just offer a service similar to that already tried and tested with Eurostar.

On the train, it's very close to first class - but you don't get all the same luxuries, like lounge access. It's also priced more like an advance ticket I believe, so no open and fully flexible options. That's perhaps one of the big differences that would stop everyone in first class just downgrading.

I can see how it work would, and not just on that route. I am surprised FGW hasn't considered trying the same, or indeed EC - or any Intercity operator.

Prices are always going to move upwards so offering more for your money (as against trying to cut prices) is the way things are going in most industries. You just need to justify price rises, and I'm sure that what you offer (as is the case in first class) is always going to be less than what you actually charge for it.

Just as first class users on flexible tickets subsidise others, I am sure the middle class service could also help keep standard fares lower than they otherwise might me. A win for everyone, as standard is still a pretty comfortable way to travel in most cases. On a new train, standard can be far superior to, say, first class on an older 1980s/1990s commuter train.

 

[tbtc]

See everyone trys to jump on me because they have an agenda to prove, sure I make mistakes but im not intentionally misleading as several people just proved

I'm not sure how accusing those against Virgin of being bitterly jealous because Mr Branson reminds us of our own personal failures helped your argument, to be honest.

 

[Eagle]

How would that be managed on the existing stock?

Intermediate would likely be something as simple as "you get to sit in first class, but no freebies". Perhaps sectioning Pendolinos into two first, two intermediate, five/seven standard.

 

[SS4]

I would expect that rather than convert one more first class to standard, you could just offer a service similar to that already tried and tested with Eurostar.

On the train, it's very close to first class - but you don't get all the same luxuries, like lounge access. It's also priced more like an advance ticket I believe, so no open and fully flexible options. That's perhaps one of the big differences that would stop everyone in first class just downgrading.

I can see how it work would, and not just on that route. I am surprised FGW hasn't considered trying the same, or indeed EC - or any Intercity operator.

Prices are always going to move upwards so offering more for your money (as against trying to cut prices) is the way things are going in most industries. You just need to justify price rises, and I'm sure that what you offer (as is the case in first class) is always going to be less than what you actually charge for it.

Just as first class users on flexible tickets subsidise others, I am sure the middle class service could also help keep standard fares lower than they otherwise might me. A win for everyone, as standard is still a pretty comfortable way to travel in most cases. On a new train, standard can be far superior to, say, first class on an older 1980s/1990s commuter train.

Intermediate would likely be something as simple as "you get to sit in first class, but no freebies".

Makes sense, thanks guys

 

[Geezertronic]

Intermediate would likely be something as simple as "you get to sit in first class, but no freebies". Perhaps sectioning Pendolinos into two first, two intermediate, five/seven standard.

I'd pay for the Intermediate just for the extra leg/seat room if that was the case

 

[Eagle]

I'd pay for the Intermediate just for the extra leg/seat room if that was the case

Longer walk to the shop though :P

 

[Realfish]

The level of the financial safeguards requested by DfT would have been evaluated beforehand by careful analysis of the bid and examination of First Group's published accounts. As First clearly sated, the figure was more or less in line with their own expectations, so it would not necessarily require much dialogue. In fact the DfT figure was eventually reduced slightly by £15M.

Ellman was trying to pick up on this. That careful analysis, if indeed it did take place, would have shown that ratings agencies were expressing concern about First's level of indebtedness and that their credit rating would be reduced to 'junk, if the requirements of the franchise increased their indebtedness further. This would have increased First's risk profile and borrowing costs.

But of course this is the nub of VT's complaint - that the guarantees required are insufficient and that there is a significant risk for the taxpayer

If this report in the Telegraph is accurate it seems that the goalposts have already been moved for the GW biddding process and higher guarantees will be required.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...nge-proves-West-Coast-process-was-flawed.html.

 

[jimm]

The chair allows or rejects subjects, sets the agenda and controls the line of questioning, your assuming the 6 can all agree which rarely happens even with just one party as each has different constituents, ideologies and interests.

Sorry, but none of that amounts to 'controlling' the committee. The chair is not some all-powerful being bending the committee to their will, which is what you seem to suggest. Select committees can do and do split on their findings, with the minority on occasion producing their own reports after hearings.

See everyone trys to jump on me because they have an agenda to prove, sure I make mistakes but im not intentionally misleading as several people just proved. People are too eager to believe Firsts claims and not experienced enough to challenge all sources as suspect, especielly those designed to convey a message to a certain audience like shareholders (First) or the press (Virgin). Sometimes its whats not said or avoided answering that tells the true story.

And you don't have an agenda? You seem to have a very one-sided take on things if you don't.

An awful lot of things weren't said/couldn't be asked because of commercial confidentiality surrounding the bids. The true story is that, as it does with all franchise bids, the DfT made a judgment. Sir Richard Branson didn't like that judgment. Had the judgment gone the other way, would we have seen the same reaction from first Group or any of the other bidders? Would Sir Richard have been protesting about the flaws in the franchise system or DfT's decision-making processes, despite coming out on top? I don't think so.

 

[Stats]

They actually put in their 2000 East Coast bid to buy 60 TGV's for the East Coast and upgrade the line for 200mph running by 2009.

Did that actually go in the bid or was that just what Virgin 'talked about' at the prelim stage?

And if it did go in the bid ask why they didn't get the Franchise.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2000/jul/04/6

Will Whitehorn, Virgin's executive director, said that diesel locomotives would be fitted at the back to provide extra power and increased acceleration. This would lead to increased reliability across the east coast line. Virgin also plans to rebuild the existing fleet of electric trains, to be called Virgin Vitesse.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2001/jan/19/2

GNER planned to upgrade the existing route for 140mph tilting trains while Sir Richard wanted a high-speed line parallel to the existing route to run trains similar to the French TGVs.

Letters circulating within the industry say the decision to scupper Virgin's "value for money" plan was taken by Sir Alastair despite a recommendation from the authority's bid team that Sir Richard's proposal provided better value than GNER.

The letters say the authority's bid team believed the joint bid by Virgin Trains and Stagecoach would save £1.5bn. But the recommendation was overruled by Sir Alastair. Instead, he recommended to ministers that GNER should be granted a 20-year extension.

Virgin would make no comment last night. Privately the Virgin team is furious that such an important project should be snatched away from them in this way

In the end GNER were all set to get a 20 year franchise but the Treasury reportedly baulked at the costs of upgrading the ECML and GNER got a 2 year franchise extension.

 

[transmanche]

Are first having cash troubles?

Judging by the way they've been getting rid of some of their bus operations, I wouldn't be surprised...

 

[ainsworth74]

Longer walk to the shop though

Well I'd hope the new trolley service they're introducing would include the intermediate class as well as standard

 

[Masbroughlad]

I actually hope Branson wins his case. Will do the system good to be shaken up.

 

[IanXC]

I actually hope Branson wins his case. Will do the system good to be shaken up.

I'm not sure I agree! The rules for the contest were clearly set out, if Branson didn't like them he shouldn't have taken part.

On the other hand if he does win, expect DOR to be operating vast swathes of the network!

 

[Masbroughlad]

On the other hand if he does win, expect DOR to be operating vast swathes of the network!

That wouldn't be too bad. BR by the back door!

 

[jon0844]

Well I'd hope the new trolley service they're introducing would include the intermediate class as well as standard

I'd expect so! I rarely get out of my seat to walk anywhere on a train these days - except for near the end of my journey if it allows me to get off the train in a more advantageous position.

Personally, I'd expect some level of complimentary food/drink - even if just tea, coffee, water and some biscuits. Rather like Weekend First, which is probably a very good example of what such a service might be like.

 

[Eagle]

That wouldn't be too bad. BR by the back door!

Except we'd not own Network Rail (probably a good thing, being as they're billions of pounds in deficit).

 

[jon0844]

I'm not sure I agree! The rules for the contest were clearly set out, if Branson didn't like them he shouldn't have taken part.

On the other hand if he does win, expect DOR to be operating vast swathes of the network!

Perhaps that's the real plan? SRB has in fact done a deal to disrupt things sufficiently that DOR will end up running the whole train network when no franchises can ever be awarded in the future.

And then once DOR takes over everything, he steps in to take over DOR.

[BTW, the above isn't meant to be taken seriously - but hey, it's a good conspiracy theory]

 

[Flamingo]

Perhaps that's the real plan? SRB has in fact done a deal to disrupt things sufficiently that DOR will end up running the whole train network when no franchises can ever be awarded in the future.

And then once DOR takes over everything, he steps in to take over DOR.

[BTW, the above isn't meant to be taken seriously - but hey, it's a good conspiracy theory]

I've got your new hat ready

 

[Aictos]

Would you like to provide evidence of this 'offer to run it free', other than someone mouthing off in the press.

Also, could you show me exactly where in the documented franchising process, which you argue is so flawed and hasn't been adhered to, it states that after the process has completed one of the losers can then change their offer?

The BBC article after Richard Branson offered to run the WCML on a Not for Profit basis is below:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19386005

Surely that's better then someone mouthing off in the press

 

[Oliver]

I watched this:

http://www.parliamentlive.tv/Main/Player.aspx?meetingId=11378

Virgin didn't seem able to point to any hard facts as to why the Judical Review should proceed. First seem just as competent as Virgin, so can't see why the decision should not stand.

 

[Steamdemon]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-virgin-boss-sir-richard-branson-8122124.html

Three points to bear in mind about First Group. Firstly, their lax safety systems were a major cause of the Southall Train Crash in 1997. Secondly, and more trivial, their main line trains at night are like sitting under Stasi interrogation conditions. The bright lights are horrendous. Whereas Virgin Main Line Trains (and East Midlands) are beautifully lit and relaxing. It makes a hell of a difference to a journey. And if First couldn't see that when they refurbished their trains, the what does that say about customer service.
Thirdly, they were involved in a major fares hike on the Thameslink service. There was a big row, but they refused to concede they were wrong.
All of that is a worry, to say the least.​

That's from Steve Blower, one of the commenters on the article. His opinion really.

 

[Oliver]

"Secondly, and more trivial, their main line trains at night are like sitting under Stasi interrogation conditions."

Comparisons with the Stasi is one step away from Godwin's Law.....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwin's_law

...and pretty much invalidate's Mr Blower's opinions. I think it very unlikely that he was ever interogated in East Germany.

 

[YorkshireRider]

Mr O Tooles comments regarding what would happen in 5 years time or lack of them are a bit worrying, kind of admiting cuts in staff may have to happen if things don't go to plan

 

[E16 Cyclist]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-virgin-boss-sir-richard-branson-8122124.html


That's from Steve Blower, one of the commenters on the article. His opinion really.

Southall was GWT and not FGW

 

[Realfish]

Mr O Tooles comments regarding what would happen in 5 years time or lack of them are a bit worrying, kind of admiting cuts in staff may have to happen if things don't go to plan

Having read an excellent profile of O'Toole in the Sunday Times at the week-end, and of his experience in earlier select committees and before the Senate in the US, I was disappointed. In fact, I thought that Vernon Baker (sic!) was more impressive and had a better grasp of the brief.

I think that you are right, there were a number of aspects of their evidence that seemed a bit flakey, Staffing, the underwriting of the loan for the guarantee, First's financials, and not least, the final critical, 4 years of premiums (which seem to have swung the award) seem more like a baloon payment and cannot be easily swept aside in one word, 'compounding'.

 

[Oswyntail]

Mr O Tooles comments regarding what would happen in 5 years time or lack of them are a bit worrying, kind of admiting cuts in staff may have to happen if things don't go to plan

Much the same as in any business enterprise anywhere, then. Nothing there to sway things one way or another, I would have thought.

 

[YorkshireRider]

Having read an excellent profile of O'Toole in the Sunday Times at the week-end, and of his experience in earlier select committees and before the Senate in the US, I was disappointed. In fact, I thought that Vernon Baker (sic!) was more impressive and had a better grasp of the brief.

I think that you are right, there were a number of aspects of their evidence that seemed a bit flakey, Staffing, the underwriting of the loan for the guarantee, First's financials, and not least, the final critical, 4 years of premiums (which seem to have swung the award) seem more like a baloon payment and cannot be easily swept aside in one word, 'compounding'.

Agreed, which is why I think the judge will grant a review, and if that does happen the initial invititation to tender for the EC should be posponed until its completed.

 

[northwichcat]

Virgin Trains on Twitter have recently responded to some queries rail passengers have made relating to other operators' services. Sounds like another way they are trying to get the public on their side.