Future potential Northern connect services

[edwin_m]

I was just reading that same thread actually. Splitting at Sheffield would avoid the need for the reversal there which I would always see as a bonus. EMT could continue running the Nottingham Sheffield Leg potentially continuing it up to Leeds in place of the Northern Connect service there.
Liverpool - Sheffield seems a similar kind of service to the Liverpool-Leeds via Bradford that was why I made the suggestion.

An alternate suggestion if TPE want to take the route is EMT took the Sheffield-Airport with reversal at Manchester Piccadilly path to give the East Midlands a direct Aiport connection, whilst the Cleethorpes train that currently does that reversal continues to Liverpool.

Both of these I feel would require a new via Stoke and Derby service from Liverpool.

Interesting thoughts here. The existing trains double up between Nottingham and Liverpool but they are most heavily loaded west/north of Sheffield. I rarely use them beyond Manchester so can't speak for that section, but I suspect they're pretty full into Liverpool too. Splitting at Sheffield would certainly tidy up the franchise map but I think the people of Doncaster and stations to Cleethorpes would be up in arms about losing their through services. The other element in the mix might be a third Hope Valley service, which if it went via Dore South Curve and Derby would probably give a slightly quicker Manchester-Nottingham time than via Sheffield and Alfreton.

 

[notlob.divad]

Interesting thoughts here. The existing trains double up between Nottingham and Liverpool but they are most heavily loaded west/north of Sheffield. I rarely use them beyond Manchester so can't speak for that section, but I suspect they're pretty full into Liverpool too.

I used to stay onto Liverpool quite a bit. The heaviest crowding was always the Sheffield-Manchester section. Sitting on the floor was normal. After Manchester it was busy but you could get a seat. The issue with the EMT service is it serves 3 busy markets where it is the only train per hour. Liverpool-Sheffield, Manchester-East Midlands and the full way through Liverpool - East Midlands. This is why serving Liverpool - Nottingham via Crewe, Derby and Stoke would be better I feel as it would allow people to do the same direct journey without using the busy Hope Valley.

Splitting at Sheffield would certainly tidy up the franchise map but I think the people of Doncaster and stations to Cleethorpes would be up in arms about losing their through services.

I have no doubt, you cannot please all of the people all of the time as can be seen by the current re-routing west of Manchester. The question is patronage, I would argue that the East Midlands would provide a bigger market for through Airport connectivity than Doncaster and Cleethorpes, others may disagree.

The other element in the mix might be a third Hope Valley service, which if it went via Dore South Curve and Derby would probably give a slightly quicker Manchester-Nottingham time than via Sheffield and Alfreton.

An extra hope valley service would be great if it could be fitted in around the stopping service using. Where its West destination is I am not sure, but I am not sure East of the Pennines the East-Midlands would be best.

I think making via Sheffield the primary route for Manchester - Hull services would be more likely. As this also free paths over the North TPE route. You would have to do something to replace the Hull-Leeds connection though.

 

[edwin_m]

I wrote the last post somewhat in haste having been called away half way through it. I've now realised that you don't have to terminate the split Liverpool-Norwich service at Sheffield, it can continue to somewhere else. So the three Hope Valley fast trains (which is a Northern Hub objective, though one of them may have to go via Marple) could be:

(1) TPE Liverpool-Manchester-Sheffield-Cleethorpes
(2) TPE Nottingham-Derby-Chesterfield-Manchester-(maybe Liverpool) (missing Sheffield)
(3) TPE Manchester Airport-Piccadilly-Sheffield-Hull (half an hour apart from (1)

plus
(4) EMT Norwich-Nottingham-Alfreton-Sheffield connecting at Nottingham with (2) or Sheffield with (1)
(5) Northern Nottingham-Alfreton-Sheffield-Leeds-Bradford, half an hour apart from (4), connecting at Sheffield with (1) if (4) doesn't.

And I think the best way of making better use of Derby-Stoke would be:
(6) EMT? Nottingham-Derby-Stoke-Crewe-Manchester Airport (and send the Nottingham-Cardiff via Sheet Stores to Stenson to reduce pressure on Derby)

Obviously various other tunes one could play on that lot if necessary...

 

[notlob.divad]

I wrote the last post somewhat in haste having been called away half way through it. I've now realised that you don't have to terminate the split Liverpool-Norwich service at Sheffield, it can continue to somewhere else. So the three Hope Valley fast trains (which is a Northern Hub objective, though one of them may have to go via Marple) could be:

(1) TPE Liverpool-Manchester-Sheffield-Cleethorpes
(2) TPE Nottingham-Derby-Chesterfield-Manchester-(maybe Liverpool) (missing Sheffield)
(3) TPE Manchester Airport-Piccadilly-Sheffield-Hull (half an hour apart from (1)

plus
(4) EMT Norwich-Nottingham-Alfreton-Sheffield connecting at Nottingham with (2) or Sheffield with (1)
(5) Northern Nottingham-Alfreton-Sheffield-Leeds-Bradford, half an hour apart from (4), connecting at Sheffield with (1) if (4) doesn't.

And I think the best way of making better use of Derby-Stoke would be:
(6) EMT? Nottingham-Derby-Stoke-Crewe-Manchester Airport (and send the Nottingham-Cardiff via Sheet Stores to Stenson to reduce pressure on Derby)

Obviously various other tunes one could play on that lot if necessary...

Your Nottingham - Airport, would save the hastle through Crewe that mine would have cause and gives several places an Airport connection. But it would probably cause issues with the Crewe-Manchester stopping services which are apparently a bit naff.

I don't think there are the paths through Manchester Oxford Road and Castlefield Junction to extend your number 2 to Liverpool, so you still have the Liverpool - East Midlands break. Hmmm no nice solution either way.

 

[323235]

No the current plan is that Hadfield doesn't get 319s as far as I am aware. It was my suggestion that they should for various the reasons given above. What you are saying is likely the reason why my plan wouldn't work.
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Would that imply 319s used as a stop gap for 3 years?

I was under the impression that an extension of the 323 lease had already been negotiated until 2018? In which case Hadfield could transfer straight from 323 to 331 operation.

Edit: just seen the suggestion above - Hadfield could go to 319s for 3 years to allow other routes to get new units first and then to allow 323s to go but retaining enough for the Stoke service until 331s can start to move onto that route?

 

[notlob.divad]

The ITT only required 3 Northern Connect routes:

• Manchester Airport to Liverpool via Warrington
• Manchester Airport to Blackpool
• Manchester Airport to Barrow/Cumbria

This was so the routes which transferred from TPE to Northern got high quality services, opposed to a 150 with 3+2 seating taking the place of a 185.

I'm not sure how you get 3 services not calling at the Airport

• Chester to Leeds
• Liverpool to Leeds
• Bradford to Nottingham
• York to Blackpool
• Leeds to Lincoln
• Sheffield to Hull
• Middlesbrough to Newcastle
• Newcastle to Carlisle

I make that 8 out of 12 or 2/3rds of the Northern Connect routes not serving the Airport.

Leeds to the Airport via Bradford was a required route but not a required Northern Connect route, are you saying you're disappointed that Arriva have decided to offer a high quality service on that route?

I think the point was trying to say there are only 3 services that do not call at Manchester as opposed to specifically the Airport. There are in fact 5:

• Carlisle - Middlesbrough,
• Hull - Sheffield
• Bradford-Nottingham
• Leeds-Lincoln
• Blackpool-Hull

 

[deltic08]

Actually the website says that Northern Connect will serve "all cities and towns with population over 85,000 (unless served by metro or other franchise)."

Yes you are right. I could have sworn it was only 8,500 when I looked at it. It still discludes Barrow, Windermere and Chester that have 2011 populations less than 85,000 but are still a Connect service and doesn't include Leeds-Keighley-Carlisle and Leeds-Harrogate-York that do not. More selective than consistent.
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Carlisle has a population of 75,000. If you combine the populations of Workington, Whitehaven, Barrow, Maryport, Millom, Askam, Dalston, Wigton, Harrington, Aspatria, St. Bees, Seascale and Flimby, it passes 85,000, giving the line a total population of over 160,000.

Population of Greater Carlisle is 100,000 but the other places you mention are much less than 85,000 each.

 

[pemma]

I think the point was trying to say there are only 3 services that do not call at Manchester as opposed to specifically the Airport. There are in fact 5:

• Carlisle - Middlesbrough,
• Hull - Sheffield
• Bradford-Nottingham
• Leeds-Lincoln
• Blackpool-Hull

What's interesting is in the DfT release the 12 routes included Middlesbrough-Newcastle and Newcastle-Carlisle as 2 routes but this new Northern page states it's one route and Manchester Airport to Windermere is a separate route to Manchester to Barrow, despite the former only be a token service. Is Middlesbrough-Carlisle going to be a through service all day or just at certain times of the day?

Manchester will see around the same number of daily Northern Connect services as Leeds. Leeds has 6 routes and 2 of Manchester's 7 only make a full service between them, so I don't think people from West Yorkshire can complain about Manchester bias, but people from other cities like Liverpool and Newcastle might have a valid point if they do.
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Population of Greater Carlisle is 100,000 but the other places you mention are much less than 85,000 each.

I think you really need to look at:
1. For how many people is Carlisle the closest station. For Scotby the closest station is not Carlisle.
2. How many potential connections can be made at Carlisle.

 

[notlob.divad]

Manchester will see around the same number of daily Northern Connect services as Leeds. Leeds has 6 routes and 2 of Manchester's 7 only make a full service between them, so I don't think people from West Yorkshire can complain about Manchester bias, but people from other cities like Liverpool and Newcastle might have a valid point if they do.

Yes the Northern Connect services seems very geared up around Leeds and Manchester, a lot of that is because of the decision to use Victoria as a through station as designed rather than as the terminating point for all the local stopping services.

Liverpool, Newcastle and I would add Sheffield seem to have been a secondary thought in all of this, which is why I was suggesting that some services like Liverpool-Blackpool, that are not an all stops service. Should have been branded as such as much as a PR exercise as anything else.

As for Middlesbrough services, I have to be honest I have no idea of current service levels, but I do wonder if they looked at interworking the Carlisle - Newcastle - Middlesborough connect service. With a Newcastle - Middlesbrough - York - Hull service.

 

[pemma]

Liverpool, Newcastle and I would add Sheffield seem to have been a secondary thought in all of this, which is why I was suggesting that some services like Liverpool-Blackpool, that are not an all stops service. Should have been branded as such as much as a PR exercise as anything else.

I don't think Sheffield does too badly - new CAF trains on Northern Connect services to Bradford (express), Leeds (via Barnsley), Lincoln, Nottingham and Hull. That's really everything which isn't a slow stopper and the only thing stopping Lincoln being a slow stopper all the way is a lack of stations in Lincolnshire.

 

[WatcherZero]

Arguably the Southport service to Yorkshire could have been made a Northern Connect as well.

I think ultimately it boiled down to not spreading the brand too thin and recognising that each extra route would require more new rolling stock to be ordered (with the exception of the one in the North East that uses 158's)

 

[notlob.divad]

Arguably the Southport service to Yorkshire could have been made a Northern Connect as well.

I think ultimately it boiled down to not spreading the brand too thin and recognising that each extra route would require more new rolling stock to be ordered (with the exception of the one in the North East that uses 158's)

Again, another good contender, and the population of Southport breaks the 80,000 that was deemed a rough benchmark.

I agree, with the brand thing though, at some point you have to draw a line.

My suggestion upthread, was under the assumption the Glossop 331 commuter services and the Blackpool-Preston class 319s could simply be interchanged requiring no new units. Other posts have made me question if the numbers add up, without knowing the planned diagrams it is hard to say.

 

[southernyoshi]

With all the effort Arriva are going to to differentiate Northern Connect from the rest of Northern, I'm wondering whether Connect is being prepared to become a separate franchise of its own at the next franchise round.

 

[pemma]

Arguably the Southport service to Yorkshire could have been made a Northern Connect as well.

I think ultimately it boiled down to not spreading the brand too thin and recognising that each extra route would require more new rolling stock to be ordered (with the exception of the one in the North East that uses 158's)

The 170s which are to be used on Southport-Leeds meet practically all the requirements for Northern Connect stock already. I imagine the reason for it not being branded as Northern Connect was down to how much work would be needed at the low usage stations to bring them up to Northern Connect standard especially by the time Arriva have decided to install hot drinks machines at all Northern Connect stations which don't already sell hot drinks instead of providing the service on board.
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With all the effort Arriva are going to to differentiate Northern Connect from the rest of Northern, I'm wondering whether Connect is being prepared to become a separate franchise of its own at the next franchise round.

The idea behind it was so that Northern could provide high quality services so that people didn't complain about services being of poor quality if they were operated by Northern opposed to TPE.

 

[sprinterguy]

With all the effort Arriva are going to to differentiate Northern Connect from the rest of Northern, I'm wondering whether Connect is being prepared to become a separate franchise of its own at the next franchise round.

I wouldn't have thought so and I certainly hope not; there's nothing wrong with having differentiation in service levels within a franchise (Central Trains had their "Citylink" regional network and Wales and West had their "Alphaline" services). There's already too much separation between local and regional services in the north of England in having distinct Northern and TPE franchises in my opinion; we don't need a third franchise to further fragment rail services in the north (although as I've mentioned on another thread recently, separating TPE from Northern local services has brought about benefits for the former with regard to rolling stock and cheap advance fares).

 

[notlob.divad]

Yes I don't see Northern Connect and Northern being separated any time soon. It seems to be the way the dft are trying to structure things. One operator running regional stopping services with a few inter-urban expresses. A second operator then running inter-city services overlaid on top.
Something similar is happening with London Midland and X-Country by the looks of it.

The Southport express could definitely be a future route. in the long term Factoring in anything that may happen on the curves both Merseyrail and Metrolink expansion plans. Burscough is in a prime position to become a rural commuter town to both Liverpool and Manchester, if they would just sort out the rail dis-connections.

 

[absolutelymilk]

How long do people think that the Middlesborough-Carlisle service will take from Carlisle to Newcastle? The current services take around 1h 40 but that has 13 intermediate stops whereas the new service will have just one (at the Metrocentre)

 

[Frothy]

How long do people think that the Middlesborough-Carlisle service will take from Carlisle to Newcastle? The current services take around 1h 40 but that has 13 intermediate stops whereas the new service will have just one (at the Metrocentre)

All evidence so far is that the Northern Connect Middlesbrough-Carlisle service will stop at Metrocentre, Prudhoe and Hexham between Newcastle and Carlisle, thus probably improving on the current fastest 1h20 by only a few minutes.
That 1h20 service calls additionally at Haltwhistle so a a couple minutes ought to be saved by omitting it. I believe the main constraint on further reducing journey times is linespeed.

Sent from my SM-G920F using Tapatalk

 

[absolutelymilk]

So will all these new services begin in December apart from the Chester-Leeds?

 

[Tractor37]

Northern Connect services aren't due to commence until December 2019

 

[backontrack]

It is mentioned on the map that all towns and cities over 8500 will be connected so what about Carlisle-Workington-Whitehaven-Millom-Barrow, York-Scarborough, Leeds-Harrogate-York and Leeds-Settle-Carlisle? Cumbrian Coast, Leeds-Harrogate-York and Leeds-Carlisle do not even feature as a non-Connect Northern service.

What would a limited-stop timetable look like?

I'd imagine they would want to double the frequency between Carlisle and Whitehaven (-Sellafield) with half the trains continuing to Barrow. I had an idea for re-opening the track between Corkickle and Moor Row and relaying it to Egremont; perhaps half the trains could run that way and terminate at Egremont.

 

[deltic08]

What would a limited-stop timetable look like?

I'd imagine they would want to double the frequency between Carlisle and Whitehaven (-Sellafield) with half the trains continuing to Barrow. I had an idea for re-opening the track between Corkickle and Moor Row and relaying it to Egremont; perhaps half the trains could run that way and terminate at Egremont.

If the demand is there, then yes reinstate more rail routes.

 

[pemma]

Northern Connect services aren't due to commence until December 2019

They are due to start be phased in starting in 2018 and ending in 2019.

 

[absolutelymilk]

They are due to start be phased in starting in 2018 and ending in 2019.

Any idea of timescales for when this will happen on the individual routes?

 

[Starmill]

No, but there was a mention that the first route to receive new trains will be Manchester Airport <> Blackpool North in the FA, because consultation responses indicated concern at the fall in quality that takes place when TransPennine give up a route.

 

[ashworth]

No, but there was a mention that the first route to receive new trains will be Manchester Airport <> Blackpool North in the FA, because consultation responses indicated concern at the fall in quality that takes place when TransPennine give up a route.

There may have been a fall in quality on that route but there's certainly far more seats in a train formed of 2 x 156 than there was in a single 185. I hope that any new trains will continue to provide that extra capacity. It was at times dreadful with standing passengers when it was a 185.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

The Southport express could definitely be a future route. in the long term Factoring in anything that may happen on the curves both Merseyrail and Metrolink expansion plans. Burscough is in a prime position to become a rural commuter town to both Liverpool and Manchester, if they would just sort out the rail dis-connections.

Whilst certain upgrading works on the line from Wigan Wallgate to Southport have been scheduled/carried out, can anyone with actual knowledge of the current condition of this line say if even more such works are still needed to allow "express services" to be run and what are the line areas that still to be are seen as needing upgrading?

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

Whilst certain upgrading works on the line from Wigan Wallgate to Southport have been scheduled/carried out, can anyone with actual knowledge of the current condition of this line say if even more such works are still needed to allow "express services" to be run and what are the line areas that still to be are seen as needing upgrading?

Realistically there is little scope for any worthwhile linespeed increases. The slow sections are down to the curvature of the route most of which is completely hemmed in either by the lie of the land or buildings. Genuine acceleration of services will need higher performing traction which effectively means we will have to wait for electrification to see such improvements.

It's worth noting that the replacement of jointed track, some of which was decidedly ropey by the end, by welded rails did not lead to any linespeed increases. Unlike the Atherton line the gradual long-term decline in track quality did not lead to linespeed reductions meaning that Southport-Wigan is largely a 70mph route while the Atherton line is restricted to 50mph. Thus any speed-up of Manchester-Southport services is more dependent on increasing the speed on the Atherton line. I was given to understand that the only reason this hasn't already been done is to contain the maintenance costs rather than any physical reasons.

 

[pemma]

No, but there was a mention that the first route to receive new trains will be Manchester Airport <> Blackpool North in the FA, because consultation responses indicated concern at the fall in quality that takes place when TransPennine give up a route.

The ex-TPE routes were the ones Northern had to provide higher quality trains on, the other routes are ones which Arriva decided to include in their bid.

 

[Bletchleyite]

No, but there was a mention that the first route to receive new trains will be Manchester Airport <> Blackpool North in the FA, because consultation responses indicated concern at the fall in quality that takes place when TransPennine give up a route.

This baffles me. 185-operated TPE routes are by and large overcrowded, sometimes seriously and at all times of day, because of the grossly inefficient layout of the Class 185 that gives it a capacity more like a 2-car unit. Northern double-unit routes are not necessarily. I'd rather have a pair of Pacers with spare seats than a single 185 without.