Getting people back on trains as lockdown eases.

[LowLevel]

Someone told me yesterday that there are some class 156 in store at Barrow Hill. Is this true? It's perverse that most trains were four car to Liverpool when no one was travelling but many are now short formed and full. Same applies to the Valleys of course. Last year almost everything (apart from Radyr to Coryton) was four cars and I could have a Pacer to myself!

There are 4 x 2 car 156 stored at Barrow Hill and 1 x 2 car 156 at Wolverton works.

There is only so much depot space available unfortunately and the 3 car 170s take half again as much siding space.

 

[Killingworth]

55% of journeys. Not 55% of revenue.

And that's the point. The entire transport set up will need review.

Large numbers are never returning to 5 (or even 3 or 4) day week commuting. It's too early to know where that will have greatest impact. Leisure use is also changing.

Within the suggested 55% there may be routes with flows between 10% and 110% of pre Covid normal. On a given route there may be specific trains showing further variances of that order.

After 18 months the entire organisation of many workplaces has changed. Some may go back to 'normal' but almost every one will have made adjustments that will become permanent. It will be another 6 months, at least, before we have a good idea of the new normal.

Transport provision in the meantime is a nightmare for those responsible for short, medium and long term planning. There are many trees overwhelming our tracks, but none of them grow money!

 

[Ianno87]

Fundamentally it's a political decision, not a financial one just as it has always been.

Our purpose is to make it politically more difficult for the wrong decision to be made.

Rail is really going to have to fight its corner if its going to justify a long term increase to the level of net subsidy to this industry (even if it is the right thing to do).

And that, as a minimum, will involve the industry demonstrating to HM Treasury that it is shedding unnecessary costs and maximising revenue generation opportunities once the picture of what future railway demand looks like becomes clearer.

The positive that I take is how prepared the Government was to continue to subsidise the maintenance of service levels that it did through the various lockdowns. I still take that as a reasonably good sign for the future.

 

[yorksrob]

Rail is really going to have to fight its corner if its going to justify a long term increase to the level of net subsidy to this industry (even if it is the right thing to do).

And that, as a minimum, will involve the industry demonstrating to HM Treasury that it is shedding unnecessary costs and maximising revenue generation opportunities once the picture of what future railway demand looks like becomes clearer.

The positive that I take is how prepared the Government was to continue to subsidise the maintenance of service levels that it did through the various lockdowns. I still take that as a reasonably good sign for the future.

Agreed. It would look politically odd to heavily subsidise empty trains and then withdraw them when the public comes back.

It's not just the industry that will need to fight rails corner. Passengers will have to as well.

 

[Killingworth]

Don't forget freight. Less pressure for passenger services gives more scope to use redundant capacity to help get trucks off roads.

 

[yorksrob]

Freight is an interesting one.

Given that a lot of freight paths go unused regularly, I wonder if there's any scope for these being used more efficiently.

 

[jon0844]

I've read recently that rail travel has been at around 55% of 2019 levels. That already puts us above the level at privatisation when it was politically unacceptable to make precipitous and irreversible cuts. The political argument needs to be made to ensure that such cuts remain politically unacceptable.

While I am sure a lot of people will think that the Government will step in and stop all that money going to foreigners, shareholders and fat cat CEOs, I really do think we're going to see major cuts made irrespective of whether they're necessary or not.

 

[yorksrob]

While I am sure a lot of people will think that the Government will step in and stop all that money going to foreigners, shareholders and fat cat CEOs, I really do think we're going to see major cuts made irrespective of whether they're necessary or not.

Will Boris or any PM want to go down in history as the new Dr Beeching !

 

[dk1]

Freight is an interesting one.

Given that a lot of freight paths go unused regularly, I wonder if there's any scope for these being used more efficiently.

Exactly what I told a mate of mine on the freight side who said a similar thing. Told him you don’t you use many of the bloody ones you’ve got now.

 

[greyman42]

Leisure use is also changing.

In what way?

 

[jon0844]

Will Boris or any PM want to go down in history as the new Dr Beeching !

Boris probably thinks wearing an England top and promising a Bank Holiday will work for a bit.

I agree that announcing cuts wouldn't go down well, but I am sure the Tory machine will do a good job of making out that people who work in the railway are overpaid, unions are evil, trains can (sorry, should) drive themselves and so on. He'll get support on that basis, just as it seems we've managed to go from clapping NHS workers to believing that they should be content that they've had the chance to work throughout the pandemic, and it's simply not practical to give them a pay rise while others suffer.

I don't think we're at risk of losing routes anytime soon, but I do think there will be timetable cuts and that could even mean requiring fewer drivers.. so all grades are likely to be impacted.

 

[greyman42]

Boris probably thinks wearing an England top and promising a Bank Holiday will work for a bit.

When is the Bank Holiday?

 

[nlogax]

When is the Bank Holiday?

There will be no bank holiday.

 

[greyman42]

There will be no bank holiday.

That's what i thought.

 

[dk1]

There will be no bank holiday.

Common sense prevails.

 

[Silver Cobra]

I have to say, my usual train home from work today, the 13:19 from Biggleswade (12:45 ex-Peterborough) was the fullest I have seen since the pandemic began. Nearly every seat was taken in the coaches I could see from coach number 8 of the 12-car 700, and quite a few people standing. Granted, a lot of people would have been travelling to London to head to Wembley or to the various pubs and fan zones near the stadium for today's Euro 2020 final, which would explain why it was so busy. Nevertheless, it clearly showed people on that train didn't care for social distancing, with so few seats left vacant, and I can just imagine how rammed it was by the time it would have left Stevenage. I'm glad I was only on the train for the 5-minute hop to Arlesey, as several groups of lads were getting quite merry.

 

[ChrisC]

I did start going for days out by train again earlier this year but have given up in recent weeks due to EMR trains being unreliable. Now the reduced timetables which have made local rail travel very inconvenient. This is not going to get people back on the trains but more likely to reduce passenger numbers long term if people give up on using the train. I had intended to do a 7 day East Midlands Rover from home this summer but I’ve cancelled that idea due to the reduced timetables. I’m using my car much more and using Trent Barton and Stagecoach bus day tickets instead.

 

[Killingworth]

In what way?

For starters airport holiday travel has dropped through the floor and we won't know how much will be coming back for at least 6 months. That's for the airlines, but then how many will travel to which airports by train?

Conversely I detect a boom in the private Rail tour market as a reaction to cancelled holidays by air and cruises. Will that continue? It's not a major earner, but once onto trains will those users try other services?

I see masses of walkers flocking to the Peak District. Last summer they avoided trains like the proverbial plague. Not so far in 2021.

Across the nation revised leisure patterns are forming. Many airport services have been cut altogether so no 55% of normal there. Will all revert back to what it was before? I doubt it, both positively or negatively.

It's too early to tell but I suspect there'll be some long term winners to partially offset the obvious current losers. Those with crystal balls may be starting to see the signs. It will need a lot of detailed analysis of all the actual travel, rather than anecdotal accounts, to base future service provisions.

What is certain is that leisure rail users don't have to use trains like commuters do. Commuters have never been happy about fares and very many are enjoying the savings from not travelling. The industry will have to ensure better service standards and value for money to get custom back. Trains need to run as scheduled, keep to the timetable, and provide more space and seats. Cancellations and short forms (for any reason) are not what returning users want to encounter, especially now.

 

[seagull]

I wonder how the numbers are calculated in the "% compared to xx" figures?
If it's ticket sales, then it is most definitely on the low side, as ticketless travel is still quite prevalent in some areas as passengers know they won't be checked to the extent they were pre-Covid.

It's also quite frustrating that the government policy to discourage rail use due to Covid is now giving them a reason to potentially make mass redundancies and cuts in the same industry that was booming before Covid.

 

[squizzler]

It's also quite frustrating that the government policy to discourage rail use due to Covid is now giving them a reason to potentially make mass redundancies and cuts in the same industry that was booming before Covid.

For those like myself who obeyed the experts and got vaccinated, there is really not very much fear (for ones own safety at least - I think it is still possible to be a carrier) so government discouragement has little effect. About 60% of the British population have done so, and that is also the proportion of rail traffic to have returned.

 

[jon0844]

When is the Bank Holiday?

There isn't going to be one. There never was. I am shocked however that lots of people thought he was going to do it if we won, when it was clearly impossible.

 

[VauxhallandI]

There isn't going to be one. There never was. I am shocked however that lots of people thought he was going to do it if we won, when it was clearly impossible.

Indeed I wonder what dimension these people live in. Certainly not in the world of business.

 

[PauloDavesi]

For people to use trains, the services provided and costs involved have to be the best option for the customers plans.
Two examples, last Friday I was going to Worcester to watch a Vitality Blast cricket game starting at 5:30 and lasting about 3 hours, followed by going for a meal after the game. The last train back to Birmingham from Worcester was at approx 22:20, so very limiting the time to enjoy a meal after the game. It was cheaper, and more convenient to drive into Worcester and park near the ground.
Yesterday, going to watch a full day of the LV County Championship game, the first train from my local station wouldn't, with walking time, have got me to the ground before the 11am start, and the return trains would not have go me home before the start of the football. Especially with the high probablility of delays and cancellations with the operator. again it was cheaper, much more convenient and faster to drive.

The majority of the population choose the most effective mode of transport for their specific circumstances, in the examples above I was prepared to have used the train, however it wasn't the best solution for my needs.

 

[dk1]

Indeed I wonder what dimension these people live in. Certainly not in the world of business.

I concur. Last thing the economy needs is more holiday.

 

[Bald Rick]

Agreed. It would look politically odd to heavily subsidise empty trains and then withdraw them when the public comes back.

Realistically, I don’t think many services running now will be withdrawn.

However not everything that was running 16 months ago is running now either. Not by a long way.

 

[yorksrob]

Realistically, I don’t think many services running now will be withdrawn.

However not everything that was running 16 months ago is running now either. Not by a long way.

In that pans out, it will be a shame but not a calamity.

 

[squizzler]

I remember when I explored Norfolk and Suffolk in January 2020 just prior to the pandemic there were others clearly experiencing the 755s for the first time ("ooh, isn't this train lovely," etc).

Many of the Staycationers taking to the rails this year will not have been using trains in the immediate run up to the pandemic. There will be families who drive to their accommodation booked for two weeks, but more likely than with overseas holidays, members of the family might decide to arrive later or depart earlier than the rest of the group due to work commitments and this exposes somebody new to train travel.

Most of the places that UK holidaymakers are likely to travel have benefitted from new trains in the last few years (Seaside areas and National Parks), with the exception of Wales. Trains like the IET in the Southwest, Flirts to the Norfolk Broads, Novas and Civities in the National Parks and coasts of Northen england, Inter7Cities and Caledonian Express to Scotish Highland. In terms of devolved routes, the only one to consistently disappoint seems to be Wales, albeit the improvements are in hand.

I expect that after another summer of staycationing, there will be a wider public shift in favour of recreational rail travel.

 

[Ianno87]

There has been a surge of new fleets introductions, either immediately before lockdowns, or have been taking place over the last 16 months, e.g. the TPE fleets, 80x fleets, Stadlers, Aventras etc etc.

So people returning for the first time in a while might get a very good impression.

 

[route101]

I remember when I explored Norfolk and Suffolk in January 2020 just prior to the pandemic there were others clearly experiencing the 755s for the first time ("ooh, isn't this train lovely," etc).

Many of the Staycationers taking to the rails this year will not have been using trains in the immediate run up to the pandemic. There will be families who drive to their accommodation booked for two weeks, but more likely than with overseas holidays, members of the family might decide to arrive later or depart earlier than the rest of the group due to work commitments and this exposes somebody new to train travel.

Most of the places that UK holidaymakers are likely to travel have benefitted from new trains in the last few years (Seaside areas and National Parks), with the exception of Wales. Trains like the IET in the Southwest, Flirts to the Norfolk Broads, Novas and Civities in the National Parks and coasts of Northen england, Inter7Cities and Caledonian Express to Scotish Highland. In terms of devolved routes, the only one to consistently disappoint seems to be Wales, albeit the improvements are in hand.

I expect that after another summer of staycationing, there will be a wider public shift in favour of recreational rail travel.

Whats the Caledonian Express?

 

[Jamesrob637]

Whats the Caledonian Express?

Probably referring to the (new stock on the) Sleeper.