I’m a fan of additional lines. But with two large caveats.
Firstly, there’s no reason why they have to follow old Victorian alignments that were closed fifty years ago. Start with a blank sheet of paper and try to solve twenty first century problems, rather than starting with a 1950s rail atlas. I’m really not fussed whether a line is built on a brand new alignment (e.g. HS2, Dawlish Avoider) or follows an old one (e.g. Ebbw Vale, Alloa). Demand changes; we need to look at the actual problem instead of working backwards to justify reopening an abandoned Victorian line.
Secondly, there are some lines closed to passenger service that seem to have good business cases. Look at Ebbw Vale as an example of what works. It’s a straightforward siding that connects a town in need of jobs to the “big city”. It serves an area of reasonably high population density, it isn’t built on the basis of “resilience” (it’s not going to be a useful diversionary route once in a blue moon). Keep it simple.
Look at other “commuter belt” towns where people will travel to the nearest city (or which will encourage people already living/working in the city to move out). Look at areas that have relatively high frequency bus services as evidence that there’s a market for public transport (e.g. Alloa to Stirling).
So that means I’d be provisionally in favour of Tavistock to Plymouth, Portishead to Bristol, Skelmersdale to Liverpool, Ashington/ Blyth to Newcastle. Washington to Newcastle/ Sunderland, Renfrew to Glasgow. But also in favour of HS2 etc.
However, some on the Forum are more interested in rural routes through the Highland/ Borders/ Northumberland / Lake District/ Ceredigion/ Devon/ Dorset/ South Downs, instead of anything practical that serves areas of high population density or links large cities in a direct way.
No great surprise to see Tavistock – Okehampton mentioned in the first post (a route that can’t sustain a commercial minibus every hour) and then people go on to list other quaint rural routes that might be fun for a railtour on a Summer Sunday but of little practical benefit to everyday commuters.
It’s a simple “good news” story to take our attention from the Brexit car-crash. Since we are spending the equivalent of the HS2 budget on leaving the EU (and seeing growth forecasts downgraded as a result), there’ll be no money left over for rail improvements. But the kind of angry pensioners who voted “Leave” in large numbers will also be the nostalgists who’ll be easily distracted by some cheap talk about reversing the cuts of the 1960s and won’t ask too many questions about how there’s money for new schemes but we can’t wire up something simple like Oxenholme – Windermere.
And since we have a big list of unfulfilled promises (electrification to Oxford, Bristol, Swansea, Leicester, Nottingham, Derby, Sheffield, Huddersfield etc), I’d be surprised if the rail budget will extend to much beyond a couple of short branches (e.g. Portishead).
I’ve nothing against Portishead – it’s one of the best cases for reopening (close enough to a big city to attract large numbers of commuters, a frequent bus service, road congestion etc) – but I’d like us to deal with the CP5 commitments too.
Plus, you have to bear in mind that the general public don’t really understand the railway too well, and that Corbyn chap’s unquantified “nationalisation” seems to play well with voters – so if Grayling can portray himself as the man who’ll put Adlestrop / Dibley/ Ambridge on the rail map then that may be a cheap way of dealing with a popular Labour policy. And these things are so “long term” that you can announce them in 2009 and again in 2017 and again in a few years time and people won’t realise how little “action” there has been.
Everything else discussed today seems circular. Franchises are too small then too big then too small… just like having one TOC at each London terminal was A Good Thing then became A Bad Thing. The kind of “partnership” that fell apart on SWT/ SWR lines from Waterloo is now exciting again since we can do it on the ECML. The rebirth of Wessex Trains.
So, well done Mr Grayling. You’ve got some very cheap positive headlines, you’ve distracted us from much bigger problems, you’ve got people trotting out the usual list of fantasy schemes (Penistone - Hadfield, Gala – Carlisle) that don’t actually solve much – you’ve taken the rail agenda away from Labour and if you survive as Transport Secretary you can announce the same vague aspirations again in a few years time and the sheep will fall for it again. Magic.
