High Speed Two (HS2) discussion

[jimm]

No chance. The Anti's entire gameplan is to delay construction by any means necessary until it becomes unprofitable to go ahead. The Yanks have a term for it: to filibuster

They (the antis) have plenty of rich backers and friends. It was very clear whilst being forced to watch Central News that they are Anti-HS2 when of course they should be neutral

It was very clear was it? Or maybe it was a lot easier for Central to find someone to be angry about HS2 and put a spin on the one aspect of the ruling where the court slated the Government (and probably rightly, it has to be said - a lot of the heat could have been taken out right at the start if DfT had been upfront and open about compensation for blighted homes), than to point out that in every other respect, the antis' case was rejected by the court, though the Government did make more of an effort this time round than has usually been evident.

Rather than shooting the messenger, which seems to be a very popular pastime here when it comes to anything to do with TV, radio or newspapers, what about the shoddy way the Government and those supporting HS2 have gone about making the case for it?

Nigel Harris in Rail magazine has been consistently critical of them for their often half-cock efforts and I happen to agree with him. While there are a million and one anti-HS2 groups around (and councils whose support for anti-HS2 campaigns is pretty dubious, eg Oxfordshire, where the route affects a handful of villages in the county's far north-east corner and runs largely on the old Great Central formation anyway), which are always ready with an angry quote or two for the TV news programmes, where have government ministers and leading figures in the rail industry been most of the time?

I was amazed to see that the rail minister Simon Burns - not exactly a household name, is he? - was actually at the court yesterday to do TV interviews. I'd be surprised if he's still in the job come the next election in just two years' time thanks to the revolving door at the DfT and that's a huge part of the problem - there is no 'face' of the case for HS2, there is no go-to source for supportive messages and material.

If this was a British Rail project in the early 1980s, Sir Peter Parker would have been everywhere fighting its corner, just as he did to get the Channel Tunnel back on the agenda. But what chance has HS2 got of something similar happening when it's a project from dysfunctional government department headed by ministers who could be shifted to another post at the drop of a hat?

 

[SS4]

It was very clear was it? Or maybe it was a lot easier for Central to find someone to be angry about HS2 and put a spin on the one aspect of the ruling where the court slated the Government (and probably rightly, it has to be said - a lot of the heat could have been taken out right at the start if DfT had been upfront and open about compensation for blighted homes), than to point out that in every other respect, the antis' case was rejected by the court, though the Government did make more of an effort this time round than has usually been evident.

It's not about what's easier though, it's about the facts. My job would be a lot easier if I didn't have to deal with people I didn't like too! DfT should have been upfront and open of course but you'll always get someone to be irrationally angry.

Rather than shooting the messenger, which seems to be a very popular pastime here when it comes to anything to do with TV, radio or newspapers, what about the shoddy way the Government and those supporting HS2 have gone about making the case for it?

It's not shooting the messenger so much as the messenger only delivering messages they agree with. Whilst I have no doubt the government and HS2 supporters can and should have put the case across better it may be the case that they have and it's been ignored or twisted beyond recognition by the "messenger"

Nigel Harris in Rail magazine has been consistently critical of them for their often half-cock efforts and I happen to agree with him. While there are a million and one anti-HS2 groups around (and councils whose support for anti-HS2 campaigns is pretty dubious, eg Oxfordshire, where the route affects a handful of villages in the county's far north-east corner and runs largely on the old Great Central formation anyway), which are always ready with an angry quote or two for the TV news programmes, where have government ministers and leading figures in the rail industry been most of the time?

I don't read Rail magazine so I'll have to take your word for it. I suspect Minsters and Leading figures were either not invited or declined to attend on the (not unreasonable) grounds that their words would be twisted and any questions would be so loaded as to be useless.

I was amazed to see that the rail minister Simon Burns - not exactly a household name, is he? - was actually at the court yesterday to do TV interviews. I'd be surprised if he's still in the job come the next election in just two years' time thanks to the revolving door at the DfT and that's a huge part of the problem - there is no 'face' of the case for HS2, there is no go-to source for supportive messages and material.

If this was a British Rail project in the early 1980s, Sir Peter Parker would have been everywhere fighting its corner, just as he did to get the Channel Tunnel back on the agenda. But what chance has HS2 got of something similar happening when it's a project from dysfunctional government department headed by ministers who could be shifted to another post at the drop of a hat?

Nope, ironically due to governments having to mind their PR, I wonder what would have happened with Andrew Mitchell (the "plebgate" MP) if Cameron didn't have to keep up appearances.

 

[Padav]

@brianthegiant: Given the limited capacity on the proposed HS1-HS2 link, does anyone have a view on which HS2 stations are likely to get customs/immigration/security facilities?

OK, for the benefit of brianthegiant, si404, tbtc, Chris125 and others who have considered this vital aspect of HS2's future operation, I actually sent a FOI request to HS2 Ltd, asking for an answer to that precise question.

Here I have extracted the relevant sections from their official response

QUESTION
In your email you requested the following information:
will new stations planned for HS2;
Two in Birmingham (city centre and NEC/airport site) for phase 1
Two in Manchester (city centre and airport), Toton Parkway, Meadowhall Sheffield and Leeds City Centre for phase 2
also house integral border control facilities.

ANSWER
The proposed Phase One Birmingham Curzon Street and Birmingham Interchange stations have been designed to include these facilities.
The design of the stations for Phase Two whilst still at an early phase in their development and largely focused on space would not seek to preclude the possibility of International services to the continent though the requirement for such services would be informed by demand forecast information and the business case to support such a venture. There are many things that would need to be considered in the decision to operate such services.

So for phase 1 stations the answer seems pretty clear at this stage - they will boast integral border control facilities.

For phase 2 the situation seems less clear but one might expect a vague response at this very early stage of development - after all it would be premature to commit when little (if any) design work has been undertaken?

 

[LE Greys]

OK, for the benefit of brianthegiant, si404, tbtc, Chris125 and others who have considered this vital aspect of HS2's future operation, I actually sent a FOI request to HS2 Ltd, asking for an answer to that precise question.

Here I have extracted the relevant sections from their official response

QUESTION
In your email you requested the following information:
will new stations planned for HS2; Two in Birmingham (city centre and NEC/airport site) for phase 1 Two in Manchester (city centre and airport), Toton Parkway, Meadowhall Sheffield and Leeds City Centre for phase 2 also house integral border control facilities.

ANSWER
The proposed Phase One Birmingham Curzon Street and Birmingham Interchange stations have been designed to include these facilities.
The design of the stations for Phase Two whilst still at an early phase in their development and largely focused on space would not seek to preclude the possibility of International services to the continent though the requirement for such services would be informed by demand forecast information and the business case to support such a venture. There are many things that would need to be considered in the decision to operate such services.

So for phase 1 stations the answer seems pretty clear at this stage - they will boast integral border control facilities.

For phase 2 the situation seems less clear but one might expect a vague response at this very early stage of development - after all it would be premature to commit when little (if any) design work has been undertaken?

Sounds sensible to me. They are probably going to make the decision once they've tested the market with Birmingham.

 

[tbtc]

OK, for the benefit of brianthegiant, si404, tbtc, Chris125 and others who have considered this vital aspect of HS2's future operation, I actually sent a FOI request to HS2 Ltd, asking for an answer to that precise question.

Cheers - very interesting

 

[Padav]

As an aside, a major benefit claimed by advocates of HS2 (that would include me) is the freed up WCML pathways HS2 delivers, enabling more freight and commuter stopping services to utilise the classic rail network.

Can any readers here point me in the direction of on-line evidence based studies conducted into this future post HS2 scenario?

 

[Haydn1971]

Even if international services over HS2 were as effective at capturing market share, they'd need to greatly expand that market for a regular service to be viable - is this likely when people from Manchester, Leeds etc will get much more choice over when they travel, for little extra journey time and probably cheaper too if they use domestic services and change at OOC or Euston?

The future is generally unknown, but one thing that appears to be happening is a consolidation of airlines offering cheap flights - once we have two or three big players, rest assured, the prices will start increasing giving an opening for rail to compete - its not there yet, but "new" ideas are formed out of a need to solve existing problems - cost of fuel is a problem that is gradually creeping up on us all, 20-30 years from now could well be the right time to roll this out.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Can any readers here point me in the direction of on-line evidence based studies conducted into this future post HS2 scenario?

I would have thought that this very important benefit of HS2 would need significant clarification in the HS2 business case, but is notorious in its absence. It's clear that paths will be cleared due to long distance travel been moved the high speed lines, but what is the financial outlook for existing lines ?

I'm mindful that shorter distance travel has a higher cost per mile than long distance travel, but are there enough short-medium distance travellers expected in 2030 and beyond to demonstrate a net gain or at worst, no net loss vs the gains expected from HS2

To clarify, if the BCR of HS2 is 2, but the BCR impact on the existing mainlines is -2, then the net BCR is zero (much more complex than that of course) - thus we spend £32bn to stand still - my gut feeling is that there will be some financial gains on the existing mainlines without long distance travellers in 2030 vs today with long distance, but at the moment, we have no real evidence case for this.

 

[jimm]

It's not about what's easier though, it's about the facts. My job would be a lot easier if I didn't have to deal with people I didn't like too! DfT should have been upfront and open of course but you'll always get someone to be irrationally angry.



It's not shooting the messenger so much as the messenger only delivering messages they agree with. Whilst I have no doubt the government and HS2 supporters can and should have put the case across better it may be the case that they have and it's been ignored or twisted beyond recognition by the "messenger"



I don't read Rail magazine so I'll have to take your word for it. I suspect Minsters and Leading figures were either not invited or declined to attend on the (not unreasonable) grounds that their words would be twisted and any questions would be so loaded as to be useless.



Nope, ironically due to governments having to mind their PR, I wonder what would have happened with Andrew Mitchell (the "plebgate" MP) if Cameron didn't have to keep up appearances.

I have watched what I take to be the 'offending' item here
http://www.itv.com/news/central/topic/birmingham/

I'm guessing it's the one headed Full report: Villagers along HS2 route celebrate victory - silly heading yes, but in terms of actual content, I think it gave a perfectly rounded and balanced view of events on Friday and showed protesters interrupting an interview with the chief executive of HS2 - something that the reporter made very clear was what happened - how that amounts to the messenger agreeing with the message or twisting it, is beyond me. The chief executive was shown answering questions, as was Mr Burns.

 

[Padav]

What I'm looking for here is some kind of simple analysis of any post HS2 WCML situation. I'm not expecting to find detailed forecasts of potential cost benefits, ten, twenty, thirty years out from now because that would amount to mere guesswork.

For example, a cursory examination of the current Virgin WCML timetables to London, from Manchester/Liverpool and Scotland/NW England, reveals 178 services per week that don't call anywhere between south of Crewe/Macclesfield and their arrival at Euston.

I think it is reasonable to assume that this bare minimum of current WCML services will migrate to HS2, post phases 1 & 2, particularly if those services don't attract a premium ticket price over their WCML bound counterpart - this will free up 178 train pathways per week for slower stopping commuter and/or freight services?

That's 178 pathways North to South of course - haven't looked at the South-North Direction but I assume it's almost identical?

 

[si404]

I would have thought that this very important benefit of HS2 would need significant clarification in the HS2 business case, but is notorious in its absence.

They give the service pattern they used in the BCR modelling in the supporting documents of the phase 2 business case. It's under 'released capacity'. So the big ticket BCR figure takes it into account.

Far from being notorious in its absence, it is rather you who are notorious in your ignorance and speculation-despite-evidence-to-the-contrary. Spouting nonsense like 'downgrade to 100mph' (as one example of many) in various places across the internet you are unnecessarily scaremongering and obfuscating.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

I think it is reasonable to assume that this bare minimum of current WCML services will migrate to HS2, post phases 1 & 2, particularly if those services don't attract a premium ticket price over their WCML bound counterpart - this will free up 178 train pathways per week for slower stopping commuter and/or freight services?

There's a detailed spec (though obviously it's not concrete) of what they plan on having post-HS2. It gives you an idea of what sort of things they reckon on.

Looks like (post-phase 2) a few services merged (eg Liverpool - Birmingham and Wolverhampton - London, and Scotland - Manchester and Manchester - London) replacing those direct services better served by HS2. Also, more stops added in the Staffordshire area on services bypassed by HS2, plus more local/regional services in the West Midlands, Manchester and London areas.

 

[Chris125]

The future is generally unknown, but one thing that appears to be happening is a consolidation of airlines offering cheap flights - once we have two or three big players, rest assured, the prices will start increasing giving an opening for rail to compete - its not there yet, but "new" ideas are formed out of a need to solve existing problems - cost of fuel is a problem that is gradually creeping up on us all, 20-30 years from now could well be the right time to roll this out.

You may well be right, but the issue for international services on HS2 is more the size of the market than how it's divided up.

Eurostar has achieved something like 70-80% market share on it's routes even against today's budget airlines, but passenger numbers are only half the original estimates - the number of people travelling between London and Paris/Brussels simply hasn't grown to the extent expected even with the completion of HS1.

So while HS2 could capture a very high percentage of Paris/Brussels traffic from the cities it serves, i'm sceptical that it's going to grow the market enough to justify anything more than a token through service. Of course should HS2 be successful at reducing the north-south divide that could change over time, but there might be an eastern HS2 route by then...

Chris

 

[Haydn1971]

They give the service pattern they used in the BCR modelling in the supporting documents of the phase 2 business case. It's under 'released capacity'. So the big ticket BCR figure takes it into account.

Two pages of released capactiy assumptions does not make a business case Simon - I've worked on enough to know that much. I've poured over the extensive two pages previously and to be blunt, they are not clear and don't tell me anything useful - nor do they give any indication of value to the released capacity.

Far from being notorious in its absence, it is rather you who are notorious in your ignorance and speculation-despite-evidence-to-the-contrary. Spouting nonsense like 'downgrade to 100mph' (as one example of many) in various places across the internet you are unnecessarily scaremongering and obfuscating.

Well look at you - roll your neck in and step away from the keyboard. I don't know what's rubbed you up the wrong way, but don't start your spouting at me.

I suspect you are confusing my quotes with others, as I remain strongly supportive of HS2 as a gut feeling, but remain sceptical of the supporting business case and the detail contained within the technical reports which are what will be the only thing that will torpedo the project if it's not right.

I've said elsewhere that long distance services will reduce to a minimum on the existing main lines, that's a fact acknowledged by people I currently work with who have been involved in the project. I've also speculated that the speed of commuter services will define line speeds south of the Luton/Bedford/Milton Keynes, which may well be 110mph through the peak periods to match the performance spec of the proposed Desiro City fleet, but may well see an increase back to 125mph out of peak, hopefully higher if the signalling technology can be made to work.

 

[John07]

To clarify, if the BCR of HS2 is 2, but the BCR impact on the existing mainlines is -2, then the net BCR is zero (much more complex than that of course)

Can you explain how you can get a BCR of -2?

It is a mathematical impossibility.

 

[Haydn1971]

Can you explain how you can get a BCR of -2?

It is a mathematical impossibility.

Good point, well spotted

What I was getting at was the net benefits of capacity gains from HS2 being dragged down by the impact on the existing mainlines.

 

[NSEFAN]

What I was getting at was the net benefits of capacity gains from HS2 being dragged down by the impact on the existing mainlines.

HS2 will probably reduce the number of trains on the WCML to start with, but if the passenger numbers keep on increasing then more trains will be able to run to fill the demand (which couldn't happen if we did what some objectors suggest and "upgrade what we already have" )

 

[Chris125]

I can understand the concern but while the southern WCML will lose many of it's long distance/intercity passengers there's plenty of potential to increase regional and commuter traffic through new services and reduced journey times.

Other benefits may well include lower maintenance costs and improved reliability - despite the vast sums spent the WCML is only semi-modernised and with such heavy traffic maintenance has become both more necessary and more difficult as i believe the recent report from Chris Gibbs illustrated.

Chris

 

[WatcherZero]

Transport Extra is reporting the Dft's current thinking on Scottish HS2 services is a 16 carriage train splitting in half at Carstairs.

http://www.transportxtra.com/magazines/local_transport_today/news/?id=33924

A Small railway town in South Lanarkshire could become a major transport hub under the Government’s high-speed rail plans.

The DfT’s current thinking is that anglo-Scottish high-speed services will run as 16-coach trains between London and Carstairs in South Lanarkshire, where they would split with eight carriages proceeding to Glasgow and eight to Edinburgh.

 

[Ironside]

Transport Extra is reporting the Dft's current thinking on Scottish HS2 services is a 16 carriage train splitting in half at Carstairs.

http://www.transportxtra.com/magazines/local_transport_today/news/?id=33924

The full article is behind a pay wall. Does the article refer to HS2 Y network then going onto classic lines or a phase three line that goes all the way to edinburgh/Glasgow?

 

[HSTEd]

Transport Extra is reporting the Dft's current thinking on Scottish HS2 services is a 16 carriage train splitting in half at Carstairs.

http://www.transportxtra.com/magazines/local_transport_today/news/?id=33924

Surely it would be better to do the split somewhere that actually needs a stop on a service then run them independently to Carstairs?

Wasting a stop at a random location that is literally in the middle of nowhere is stupid.

 

[YorkshireBear]

Surely it would be better to do the split somewhere that actually needs a stop on a service then run them independently to Carstairs?

Wasting a stop at a random location that is literally in the middle of nowhere is stupid.

I imagine this means 16 cars running on the WCML from Manc to Scotland, therefore the only current place to split without wasting capacity is Carstairs. If a new HS2 to Scotland was built i doubt there would be a station at Carstairs.

 

[jon0844]

Eurostar has achieved something like 70-80% market share on it's routes even against today's budget airlines, but passenger numbers are only half the original estimates - the number of people travelling between London and Paris/Brussels simply hasn't grown to the extent expected even with the completion of HS1.

If there's loads of spare capacity, the quicker we start to run trains further (i.e. the planned services to Holland, Germany etc) the better.

I am sure that even though this market is also unproved, these trains will be frequently used. We know only too well how people prefer services without changes. It suddenly brings London another step closer to mainland Europe.

 

[Rational Plan]

You may well be right, but the issue for international services on HS2 is more the size of the market than how it's divided up.

Eurostar has achieved something like 70-80% market share on it's routes even against today's budget airlines, but passenger numbers are only half the original estimates - the number of people travelling between London and Paris/Brussels simply hasn't grown to the extent expected even with the completion of HS1.

So while HS2 could capture a very high percentage of Paris/Brussels traffic from the cities it serves, i'm sceptical that it's going to grow the market enough to justify anything more than a token through service. Of course should HS2 be successful at reducing the north-south divide that could change over time, but there might be an eastern HS2 route by then...

Chris

Just because the Channel tunnel projections were ludicrously over the top, does not mean that over time there won't be growth in international travel.

For example going through the CAA route stats between different city pairs you will find that the Manchester - Paris CDG route had 204,000 passengers in 1990 by 2012 this had grown to 483,000 passengers. The trend has shown a clear and consistent growth in passenger numbers.

Birmingham saw a growth from 173,000 to 361,000 to Paris over the same time period.

Birmingham to Paris could be done in 3 hours, which makes for 80%market share. On current figures that is a thousand people a day. Which equates to two trains a day at 100% occupancy, so more likely three to four trains a day on current figures. by the time the link opens that will be enough for 6 to 8 trains a day to Paris from Birmingham alone.

Manchester has higher figures, but the longer distance will reduce market share. How much is open to debate but we are only talking 3 and half to Paris from Manchester.

From these figures two connected units could either split between Manchester and Birmingham (joining at Birmingham) to Paris and Amsterdam or vice versa at Lille.

Assuming growth continues, then should be plenty of demand for a 2 hourly service to Paris for the bulk of the day and 5 services to Amsterdam.

There might be demand for Koln as well at a reasonable level of service.

Services to the North of London could still stop at either Stratford or Old Oak Common for international passengers in the London area, thereby boosting numbers further.

Beyond this there will be a market for a limited number of leisure destinations across Europe.

 

[WatcherZero]

My take on it was London Classic-Compatible services running doubled up 2x200m (hourly?) to save paths on WCML and phase1/2 HS2 splitting at Carstairs rather than Wigan/Preston as previously suggested. Naturally would mean redesign of Carstairs (also planned anyway to a smaller degree as general speed improvement) and either SDO or platform extensions on classic stations it passed through and possibly some signalling repositioning and junction alterations.

 

[nerd]

The full article is behind a pay wall. Does the article refer to HS2 Y network then going onto classic lines or a phase three line that goes all the way to edinburgh/Glasgow?

the former;

it is clear in the published service patterns; that what is envisaged at Phase 2 is for a doubled classic-compatible service splitting at Carstairs. Which has to happen, as neither Glasgow Central nor Waverley can currently handle a 400m train.

In actuality, this is likely to be academic. All the signs are that (assuming that Scotland votes no to independence); the Treasury will approve construction of a Glasgow-Edinburgh line - possibly through Carstairs - concurrently with Phases 1 and 2, and linking into a line south to England. Such a Glasgow-Ediburgh scheme would include creation of 400m high speed platforms at High Street and Haymarket. And it would then be possible for classic compatibles to run all the way without splitting (and once the gap in northern England was closed, doubled captive trains to do the same)

 

[HSTEd]

Birmingham to Paris could be done in 3 hours, which makes for 80%market share. On current figures that is a thousand people a day. Which equates to two trains a day at 100% occupancy, so more likely three to four trains a day on current figures. by the time the link opens that will be enough for 6 to 8 trains a day to Paris from Birmingham alone.
.

Only 540 seats per train?
That would cause problems with having to split the train in an emergeancy as required by Channel Tunnel regulations.

You are looking at 1300 seats per train unless you want to throw paths away (400m double deckers) which means you would get maybe enough for one train per day in each direction now, perhaps rising to 3 trains per day by the time HS2 opens.

And this is by far the most viable city pair.
It is just not worth it.

 

[snowball]

In the Scottish discussion, is "Carstairs" being used as a shorthand for "a station on the future high-speed network that will play a similar role to that played by Carstairs in today's network"?

Or is it known that it will actually be at Carstairs?

Perhaps for convenient access to the Scottish equivalent of Broadmoor?

 

[The Decapod]

HS2 is supposed to fight back against internal air flights. But by HS2's somewhat ball-park proposed opening date of 2030, aircraft design will have moved on and we might see 500+ passenger short-haul aircraft on internal flights. Probably not, but we might if passenger numbers and add up!

 

[swt_passenger]

Only 540 seats per train?
That would cause problems with having to split the train in an emergeancy as required by Channel Tunnel regulations.

I thought 'splitting the train' was on the way out? Trials have been done a year or two back to do away with that requirement, something to do with the new 374s not being designed as splittable, as well as the shorter length of the intended new DB trains.

There'll probably be a previous thread on it but a basic search couldn't find it...

 

[Chris125]

Just because the Channel tunnel projections were ludicrously over the top, does not mean that over time there won't be growth in international travel.

It need's more than growth though, regular international services north of Old Oak Common would have to completely change the market in a way that Eurostar has failed to do - with no dramatic reduction in journey time or cost, and changing in London likely to be cheaper and offer much more choice when HS2 opens, i can't see what would drive that.

Chris

 

[nerd]

In the Scottish discussion, is "Carstairs" being used as a shorthand for "a station on the future high-speed network that will play a similar role to that played by Carstairs in today's network"?

Or is it known that it will actually be at Carstairs?

Perhaps for convenient access to the Scottish equivalent of Broadmoor?

In the Phase 2 service patterns, 'Carstairs' is at Carstairs, and all the Scots Classic compatibles will stop there.

If - as I expect - the Scots get a high speed Phase 3 line concurrently with English phases 1 and 2; then one option would have a scots 'Y' corresponding to the English 'Y' but with a delta junction allowing a shuttle to run from Harmarket via Gogar and 'Carstairs' to Glasgwo High Street. The delta junction could be at Carstairs itself, are perhaps a bit further north; it doesn'e really matter. But all Scots HSR services would still stop there, as that would enable passengers not wanting to wait for the next hourly train from Ediburgh or Glasgow, to take the shuttle and connect with the counterpart service at 'Carstairs'.