How much longer will social distancing go on for in the UK?

[C J Snarzell]

As another forum member has said - new cases have been creeping up for a while but deaths are still low.

My own opinion is that many deaths now are people who are very old and are deteriorating anyway, people who are extremely ill and already have a multitude of other illnesses.

The flu epidemic generally makes thousands of people unwell every year and sadly a small proportion don't survive but we don't have the same restrictions in place for flu that we have with covid.

The government's original agenda was to protect the health service which is good, but even if we saw a tidal wave of new cases, the NHS would still adequately manage with most people reverting to self isolation in their own homes.

I do think the issues of the economy, unemployment and mental health overtake the actual virus itself now and the government should act to bin off social distancing completely and try to restore normality again like pre March.

The government should then focus on border control so virus cases are not brought in from abroad. Schools need to return to complete normality - all this nonsense of using face masks in school needs to be shelved as our children have suffered enough harm to their education.

CJ

 

[takno]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm not sure far-right groups would be so interested in this particular issue (unless they are in the mood to pick fights); if anything some of them might actually support the demonstrations as there are folk on the right against such measures.

The problem is that some of the protests that have happened in other places have included anti-science lunatics and the far right contingent that is always up for a fight, and they aren't people you want on your side making you look stupid. I suspect they are often a pretty small part of most of the protests where they pop up, but if you want to discredit the whole thing then they are always there in the corner, ready for the cameras to zoom in on.

 

[island]

Was just picking a scenario, and did state illegal raves, as these are large gatherings of people that do have an effect on others be it noise, rubbish, criminal damage. I have no issue with organised legal raves/gatherings as lots of people enjoy them.

All raves with over 30 attendees are illegal at present in England.

 

[greyman42]

There is one in London today I see, quite a sizeable turnout too from what I’ve seen on social media.

I wonder if it will make the news?

 

[scotrail158713]

I wonder if it will make the news?

If it does it’ll only be because they can include some fear-laden message about it being the cause of a second wave

 

[Richard Scott]

All raves with over 30 attendees are illegal at present in England.

I know that, think my point has been taken out of context.

 

[ChrisC]

It is ridiculous, surely it's deaths they should be concerned with and they are incredibly low. It doesn't matter how many people get the virus if it isn't causing serious problems. Otherwise we may as well lock down when a big round of colds comes around. The politicians really have totally lost the plot and aren't listening to reasoned arguments about this. I do worry what will happen when it's pushed too far and people say enough to is enough.

I agree that the number of deaths now are incredibly low and should no longer be of any concern. What would be interesting to know is with the rising number of reported cases, now well over 1,000 a day, how ill these people actually are and how long the illness is lasting.
I’m now in my early 60’s and have only had the real flu 3 times in my life. I know lots of people say they have the flu when it is just a heavy cold or short term fever, but if you really do have the genuine flu, it can mean at least a week in bed and feeling tired for many weeks afterwards. When I was in my mid 20’s I had the flu which resulted in me having 2 weeks off work in January and although I started back to work it left me feeling tired with no energy for weeks afterwards. I can honestly say I didn’t feel 100% well again until about June. Many people may now be getting Coronavirus and being very ill, but not quite so bad to be admitted to hospital. It would be interesting to know if they have any longer term issues.

 

[Ianigsy]

I suspect it'll die a natural death before along. For most people it seems to be a case of face covering or distancing and I haven't seen much official enthusiasm for micro managing it.

 

[brad465]

I wonder if it will make the news?

If it does it’ll only be because they can include some fear-laden message about it being the cause of a second wave

A quick search on Google under news and the Express, Guardian and Metro all have articles on it, but no sign on the BBC as yet.

 

[Scrotnig]

A quick search on Google under news and the Express, Guardian and Metro all have articles on it, but no sign on the BBC as yet.

BBC have it on their live feed now, but no article as yet.

 

[Howardh]

Played hockey today, first time since March. 22 players on an aoudoor pitch, bottle of sanitiser used on the hands before the game and at half-time. Only complaint I have is the changing rooms are shut - completely, so no access to a toilet. So that means anyone who has to go has to find a quiet hidden area, which could be a greater health hazard than simply allowing use of the indoor toilets.

 

[HSTEd]

Well a mitigated epidemic would be over by now.

But no, now we are stuck with this.... forever.

 

[talldave]

Same, though I'd want assurances that there wouldn't be any anti-vaxxers or far-right groups coming along.

The group protesting in London today do seem to have laid off the 5G conspiracy theory. They were scheduled to have a number of doctors speaking today, all positive. But then sadly the event was due to move on to a second location where David Icke was due to speak. I tried to feed back to some of the organisers that for someone of my age, having a total crackpot nutcase speak out for your cause will do it no good at all!

 

[Class 33]

I posted this on the other thread yesterday, but not sure if many of you spotted it. But it's relevant to this thread too, so am posting it one more time.

Here is a visual and audio reminder of what Boris said in his press conference from about 6 weeks ago, when he said "It is my strong and sincere hope that we will be able to review the outstanding restrictions and allow a more significant return to normality from November at the earliest, possibly in time for Christmas.". The relevant part is at 12m 46s....

Let's see if he delivers on what he said. I bet he doesn't, and we'll still have this nonsense still going on into November, December/Christmas and even into at least early next year!

 

[PR1Berske]

Because of the ever present issue with winter colds and flu, I imagine that many restrictions, including wearing masks, could continue into March 2021.

"Over by Christmas" is based on no significant increase in cases or deaths by then. Neither are guaranteed.

 

[Yew]

Because of the ever present issue with winter colds and flu, I imagine that many restrictions, including wearing masks, could continue into March 2021.

"Over by Christmas" is based on no significant increase in cases or deaths by then. Neither are guaranteed.

I can think of something else that was supposed to be over by Christmas, just over 100 years ago. Forgive me for not being entirely convinced.

 

[Vespa]

He's just trolling. Makes a number of completely unevidenced claims of his own, and when you make a reply in the same format demands to see "evidence". Not worth the effort

I'm genuinely not trolling I am actually asking for evidence to prove or disprove an opinion.

Truth has one version, propaganda is many versions.

 

[DB]

I'm genuinely not trolling I am actually asking for evidence to prove or disprove an opinion.

Truth has one version, propaganda is many versions.

And as I have already said, look through threads on here as we have already been through this.

The comment about truth is simply trite and implies that things are black and white, which they rarely are. And with this situation, the view of many on here is that the measures taken are way out of proportion. On Facebook you may well find a differing view.

 

[Class 33]

I wonder if it will make the news?

Absolutely no mention atall on the ITV National News! I did intend to check the ITV London News to see if it got a mention, but couldn't as after watching the ITV West Country News, I realised again you can't rewind/pause the ITV Live Player! Anyone confirm if this protest got a mention on ITV London? I expect probably not!

 

[C J Snarzell]

Because of the ever present issue with winter colds and flu, I imagine that many restrictions, including wearing masks, could continue into March 2021.

"Over by Christmas" is based on no significant increase in cases or deaths by then. Neither are guaranteed.

Matt Hancock is already speculating that measures are likely to continue beyond Christmas. I've also heard that some police forces are already bracing themselves for the impact the measures will bring on New Years Eve. It'll be a very interesting scene on Trafalgar Square when 2021 arrives.

CJ

 

[Cardiff123]

Did anyone seriously believe the Prime Minister when he said we'd back to pre-Covid normal life by December? (Whether anyone can believe anything the PM says is debatable, seeing as it's usually U-turned on within 24 hours or said just to generate some friendly headlines, as the "life will be back to normal by Christmas" throwaway comments were.)

'Normal' life won't resume until there's a viable, safe and effective vaccine - and most sensible scientists believe that won't be until autumn/winter next year.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/matt-hancock-warns-of-extensive-lockdowns-8cmg5v6rn

Matt Hancock warns of extensive lockdowns

England could face nationwide restrictions and very extensive local lockdowns in the event of a second wave of coronavirus this winter, the health secretary has warned.

Matt Hancock said that under a “reasonable worst-case scenario” Britain could find itself contending with a surge in coronavirus and a bad outbreak of seasonal flu as people spent more time indoors.

In an interview with The Times he said that a second wave of Covid-19 was “avoidable but it’s not easy” and that the return of children to schools next week presented challenges in stopping the spread.

“A second wave is clearly visible in other parts of the world,” he said. “It is a very serious threat. But so far in the UK we are managing to keep the number of new cases flat through a combination of test and trace and local lockdowns.” He added: “This is the reasonable worst-case scenario, that we have a bad flu and a growth in coronavirus as people spend more time indoors. Cases go up again, and we have to use very extensive local lockdowns or take further national action. We don’t rule that out but we don’t want to see it.”

The strong comments from a senior cabinet minister make clear that winter could bring a significant setback to progress against the pandemic. The prospect of national restrictions caused by a second wave will be of concern to business leaders and also to Britons who have got used to their increasing freedoms as lockdown has eased.

Under the initial lockdown, the retail and hospitality industries were forced to close across the country. Boris Johnson has previously compared the prospect of another nationwide lockdown to a “nuclear deterrent”. He said last month: “I certainly don’t want to use it. And nor do I think we will be in that position again.”

The prime minister said yesterday that schools would be closed again only as a last resort. He is expected to push again to get people back to work next month amid concerns that city centres are dying.

However, a survey by The Times has found that three quarters of Britain’s biggest employers are looking at a permanent shift to flexible working. Another survey of 1,500 parents found that most of them would refuse to send their children to school in the event of another lockdown.

Official figures suggested yesterday that Britain’s coronavirus outbreak may be growing. The R number, indicating how many people each infected person will, on average, go on to infect, stands at between 0.9 and 1.1. When it is above one, the outbreak is increasing. However, some local lockdowns, including in Wigan and parts of Blackburn with Darwen, were eased yesterday.

Mr Hancock also said that social-distancing measures would remain for the “foreseeable” future and suggested that, unless a vaccine was approved, grandparents would be unable to hug their grandchildren this Christmas.

“I yearn to be able to remove the restrictions on social contact but those restrictions are absolutely necessary at the moment,” he said. “We’ll be keeping them in place for the foreseeable. We hope for the best and we prepare for the worst.”

The health secretary said that under the “central scenario” the vaccine was likely to be available “some time next year”, although he hoped that this would be sooner. Before then, he said, the government was relying on three “lines of defence” to stop the spread of the coronavirus: social distancing, NHS test and trace and local lockdowns. He hoped that these measures, combined with the biggest flu vaccination programme in history, would ensure that the NHS could cope.

“With schools coming back, the next big moment is when the weather turns,” he said. “Partly because of the nature and biology of the virus — it survives longer in colder environments — but also because people spend more time indoors, and we know outdoors is safer than indoors. So both because of the virus and how we humans behave, winter is a worry.”

He said that ministers were working to increase the capacity of hospitals to ensure that the NHS was “ready for winter”, with the Nightingale hospitals that were built at the height of the pandemic available as an “insurance policy”.

 

[NorthOxonian]

Did anyone with an ounce an intelligence seriously think we'd be back to pre-Covid normal life by December?
'Normal' life won't resume until there's a vaccine

Matt Hancock warns of extensive lockdowns

England could face nationwide restrictions and very extensive local lockdowns in the event of a second wave of coronavirus this winter, the health secretary has warned.Matt Hancock said that under a “reasonable worst-case scenario” Britain could find itself contending with a surge in coronavirus and

www.thetimes.co.uk

But that could be years away, especially when you remember that finding the vaccine is only half the battle (distribution could well take longer than trials). Expecting everyone to give up what may well prove a significant chunk of their life for a virus with a pretty low fatality rate seems a ridiculous overreaction.

 

[PR1Berske]

Absolutely no mention atall on the ITV National News! I did intend to check the ITV London News to see if it got a mention, but couldn't as after watching the ITV West Country News, I realised again you can't rewind/pause the ITV Live Player! Anyone confirm if this protest got a mention on ITV London? I expect probably not!

ITV doesn't have to, and isn't required to, cover every gathering which happens from one day to the next.

 

[talldave]

ITV doesn't have to, and isn't required to, cover every gathering which happens from one day to the next.

That's obvious. But the point is that a large protest in London challenging the government line doesn't fit neatly with the mainstream media's unchallenging support for Project Fear.

 

[C J Snarzell]

But that could be years away, especially when you remember that finding the vaccine is only half the battle (distribution could well take longer than trials). Expecting everyone to give up what may well prove a significant chunk of their life for a virus with a pretty low fatality rate seems a ridiculous overreaction.

I totally agree with everything said - don't forget, it was only a couple of months ago when Boris Johnson suggested a benchmark for 'normality' in November but this is very unlikely now.

The vaccine debate is a mixed bag of opinion. Chris Whitty was suggesting a time line for the Winter of 2021/22 but its all speculation and I don't think any of us can really say 'has', 'when' & 'if' at the moment.

CJ

 

[BJames]

Did anyone with an ounce an intelligence seriously think we'd be back to pre-Covid normal life by December?
'Normal' life won't resume until there's a vaccine

Matt Hancock warns of extensive lockdowns

England could face nationwide restrictions and very extensive local lockdowns in the event of a second wave of coronavirus this winter, the health secretary has warned.Matt Hancock said that under a “reasonable worst-case scenario” Britain could find itself contending with a surge in coronavirus and

www.thetimes.co.uk

Which is basically being said I'm sure because there's a lot of hope that a vaccine (or even a couple) will be ready soon i.e. months rather than years. If this turns out not to be the case then this sentiment from the government will need a rethink.

 

[Huntergreed]

Did anyone with an ounce an intelligence seriously think we'd be back to pre-Covid normal life by December?
'Normal' life won't resume until there's a vaccine

Matt Hancock warns of extensive lockdowns

England could face nationwide restrictions and very extensive local lockdowns in the event of a second wave of coronavirus this winter, the health secretary has warned.Matt Hancock said that under a “reasonable worst-case scenario” Britain could find itself contending with a surge in coronavirus and

www.thetimes.co.uk

No, we cannot allow that to happen, it's far too ruinous on so many lives and livelihoods and far more will be lost than would ever be saved.

 

[NorthOxonian]

Which is basically being said I'm sure because there's a lot of hope that a vaccine (or even a couple) will be ready soon i.e. months rather than years. If this turns out not to be the case then this sentiment from the government will need a rethink.

As mentioned, my worry is not when a vaccine will be ready by - it's when it can be distributed by. I had read that production of the Oxford vaccine could begin before all trials were completed, with the products disposed of should the vaccine fail. I would hope that this is still being done, and if it is, manufacturing could well be beginning right about now.

The other concern will be logistics - considering the gravity of the situation, I could seriously imagine the military being used to bolster the supply chains. After all, the faster the vaccine can be used after it is approved, the faster we can do away with these terrible restrictions.

 

[Smidster]

But that could be years away, especially when you remember that finding the vaccine is only half the battle (distribution could well take longer than trials). Expecting everyone to give up what may well prove a significant chunk of their life for a virus with a pretty low fatality rate seems a ridiculous overreaction.

There is practically zero chance of there being no restrictions at Christmas and frankly I think people are being naive to think otherwise (or have any faith in Johnson but that is a different story)

For that to happen you need either a vaccine deployed at scale, a highly effective treatment or the virus to no longer pose a threat (e.g due to herd immunity / mutation)

My hope is that we pretty much stay as we are for the next few months and look to make changes next Spring

 

[Huntergreed]

There is practically zero chance of there being no restrictions at Christmas and frankly I think people are being naive to think otherwise (or have any faith in Johnson but that is a different story)

For that to happen you need either a vaccine deployed at scale, a highly effective treatment or the virus to no longer pose a threat (e.g due to herd immunity / mutation)

My hope is that we pretty much stay as we are for the next few months and look to make changes next Spring

Bear in mind the public are already growing sick and tired of this in increasing numbers, I really, truly cannot see the current level of measures being in place for that long.