How much longer will social distancing go on for in the UK?

[yorksrob]

Indeed. What would be the point in spending millions on vaccinations to be locked up until next year. SAGE don't do themselves any favours in terms of credibility.

 

[bramling]

Indeed. What would be the point in spending millions on vaccinations to be locked up until next year. SAGE don't do themselves any favours in terms of credibility.

Well yes, especially as by then it seems like they might be having to re-vaccinate!

 

[yorksrob]

Well yes, especially as by then it seems like they might be having to re-vaccinate!

Indeed, it could well be time for an annual booster.

 

[6862]

Try not to take much notice of those silly headlines by SAGE saying restrictions can't be eased till the end of the year, next year or whatever. SAGE are a bloody nuisance. I've just read one headline(but not clicked in to read it) that says "LOCKED IN - Restrictions can't ease until NEXT YEAR due to aggressive strains, warns SAGE". Next they'll be saying "Restrictions can absolutely NEVER be lifted, warns SAGE". The government hasn't got to do what SAGE says. With the way things are going now with all these millions of vaccinations and falling stats week on week on week, the government will just not be able to justify keeping any longer than mid summer at the very latest. Some on this forum even saying all restrictions could be gone by the end of MAY.

Unfortunately, while Sage spews out 'the science', Boris will lap it up and turn 'the science' into laws. Sage wants long term or permanent lockdown, and so that's what we'll be getting.

 

[Class 33]

The trouble is the government is terrified of “High death toll blamed on ignoring SAGE advice” or “Lots of lives would have been saved if only Boris had listened to SAGE” headlines.

Essentially the egos of Boris and Matt are more important than our freedom, wellbeing, employment, savings, et cetera.

But very soon thanks to these vaccines, the death tolls from Coronavirus will be extremely low ongoing.

And I see Professor Fergusson is sticking his oar in again and today coming up with even a phased easing of lockdown between March and July this year, will then result in 130,000 additional deaths between now and June 2022. Absolute rubbish. Where the hell does he get that number from??

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 5 Feb 2021 ==

Unfortunately, while Sage spews out 'the science', Boris will lap it up and turn 'the science' into laws. Sage wants long term or permanent lockdown, and so that's what we'll be getting.

We won't. How can we possibly have a long term or permanent lockdown? It's just not sustainable and will cause even more catastrophic damage to the economy and people of this country. Very soon there will be no justification for lockdowns and restrictions whatsoever. It will start being eased from 8th March onwards. And I am fairly confident that by late July at the latest the remaining nuisance restrictions of social distancing and face mask wearing will finally be scrapped.

 

[Domh245]

Apparently Sage are now saying that lifting all restrictions by September will lead to "significant further disease". Given that the government are in Sage's pocket, this pretty much means restrictions are going to last beyond September, and then we'll be back into winter respiratory virus territory, so expect them to last through the winter of 2021-22. We won't be done with all this nonsense even by the second anniversary of the 1st lockdown.

The journalist who wrote that story clearly didn't look very hard, it's from Warwick's "vaccine impact forecast" from 13th January (presented to SAGE on the 14th). Quickly skimming through it, it would seem to be a junk paper however, as they seem to have completely ignored the ~100% efficacy of the vaccines in preventing deaths & hospitalisations, as well as what look to be some quite frankly bizarre assumptions about case growth, and to top it off, huge confidence intervals (peak deaths of between 0 and 1400). The presumed vaccine delivery plan also fails on it's first meeting with reality (a sedate 2m/week consisting only of Oxford and Pfizer vaccines, as well as what look to be some low takeup rates)

The consensus statement from the actual SAGE meeting has this to say on vaccines:

SPI-M-O highlight that a further epidemic wave will take place if non-pharmaceutical interventions start being lifted before vaccine rollout is well advanced. This wave would be less likely to return hospital occupancy to levels that endanger the usual standard of care if:
• The number of vulnerable people who are unprotected is low – this will be a combination of the proportion of vulnerable people who have not been vaccinated and the real-world effectiveness of the vaccine against hospitalisations and deaths in these cohorts
• Hospital occupancy is low when such a relaxation takes place
• Prevalence is low when such a relaxation takes place
• Restrictions are lifted gradually, while retaining some basic social distancing measures, such as COVID security and Test and Trace (with high adherence to isolation)
22. In the event of a further epidemic wave due to relaxation, transmission would be highest in the most vulnerable, deprived communities with lowest vaccination coverage, likely leading to explosive epidemics.
23. Reaching herd immunity from vaccination alone may not be possible; it would require very high coverage in all adult age groups and for the vaccine to be highly effective against transmission.
24. The age profile of those being admitted to hospital is less skewed towards the oldest in society than the age profile of deaths. For that reason, vaccines will reduce pressure on the NHS more slowly than they will reduce the number of deaths.
25. If, in future, the Government were to follow a strategy of allowing R to be sustained above 1 before vaccines have been offered to all adults, very high coverage in older and more vulnerable groups is absolutely critical to avoid the NHS being so stretched that it cannot provide its usual levels of care during in the epidemic that would follow.

I dare say this is exactly why we're seeing the current restrictions being drawn out - ensuring hospital occupancy is at an OK level, as many people as possible have been jabbed, cases driven down to lower levels with the continued restrictions, and a gradual easing rather than a big bang

 

[Tezza1978]

The journalist who wrote that story clearly didn't look very hard, it's from Warwick's "vaccine impact forecast" from 13th January (presented to SAGE on the 14th). Quickly skimming through it, it would seem to be a junk paper however, as they seem to have completely ignored the ~100% efficacy of the vaccines in preventing deaths & hospitalisations, as well as what look to be some quite frankly bizarre assumptions about case growth, and to top it off, huge confidence intervals (peak deaths of between 0 and 1400). The presumed vaccine delivery plan also fails on it's first meeting with reality (a sedate 2m/week consisting only of Oxford and Pfizer vaccines, as well as what look to be some low takeup rates)

The consensus statement from the actual SAGE meeting has this to say on vaccines:



I dare say this is exactly why we're seeing the current restrictions being drawn out - ensuring hospital occupancy is at an OK level, as many people as possible have been jabbed, cases driven down to lower levels with the continued restrictions, and a gradual easing rather than a big bang

Agree 100% with this - that Warwick scare document is wildly out of date. Doesn't take into account real vaccination levels - forecasts are saying we could be doing 4 million a week rather than 2 million by March/April. It also doesn't account for the fact that we are likely to vaccinate secondary school kids too in Autumn. The ignoring of seasonality in some of those projected summer "doom" peaks in their report is simply laughable.

On the positive side even some SAGE scientists (eg Andrew Hayward) have publicly said they think we will back to normal by summer. Even Professor Pantsdown thinks we could have herd immunity by September from vaccines and existing immunity gained by prior infection.....

 

[island]

If socialising were to be permanently banned, I would put ever last pound I have on there serious civil unrest within days of such a decree.

So I think a permanent ban on socialising is just unworkable, and would certainly lead to civil disobedience if not civil unrest.

Sorry - much as I want these restrictions to go as quickly as possible I simply don't believe there is an agenda to ban socialising. The government, the Conservative party and the economy wpuld be utterly destroyed by this and mass civil unrest would ensue. 0% chance people would accept it, millions would take to the streets.

The less politicians talk about it, the less of an issue Covid becomes, and if they do keep talking in a fearful manner while all stats are good, it would be a very difficult sell and if anything might increase the risk of civil unrest because restrictions being unnecessary is being laid bare to the population.

I think Hancock and our chancellor cane see what's coming unless they ease restrictions soon.

The riots of 2011 will look like child's play

This forum has been predicting mass civil unrest for months on end. It has not materialised, and I daresay will not ever do so.

Funny how we managed to have significant "normality" between July and September 2020 without even the sight of a vaccine, isn't it?

There is nothing normal about systematic requirements to wear face coverings.

 

[brad465]

The trouble is the government is terrified of “High death toll blamed on ignoring SAGE advice” or “Lots of lives would have been saved if only Boris had listened to SAGE” headlines.

Essentially the egos of Boris and Matt are more important than our freedom, wellbeing, employment, savings, et cetera.

What might stop them both keeping their egos going for too long in that form is that, as has often been discussed, this whole saga has been and will continue to tire them out physically (and I imagine mentally too), to the point they will be physically unable to continue. I do wonder if Matt's latest self-isolation period happened in part because he needed a break.

Also David Cameron has demonstrated one can very successfully run away from all responsibility of one's own mess and get away with a low profile, other than releasing memoirs and occasional TV interviews when the time is right. If Johnson in particular realises there's no way back for him this maybe the best option, although he'll want to lift most restrictions first, unless he's booted out before then.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 5 Feb 2021 ==

This forum has been predicting mass civil unrest for months on end. It has not materialised, and I daresay will not ever do so.

We'll have to wait an see, but the Netherlands, Italy, Austria and Poland, among others perhaps, all have experienced civil unrest now, so it's not set in stone there won't be any.

 

[Markdvdman]

Mark Drakeford saying we may have to do social distancing, masks etc through 2021. He is a waste of space!!!

Covid: Tourism in Wales 'may start reopening by Easter'

First Minister Mark Drakeford said he could "see a path" towards parts of the tourist trade by April.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Jamesrob637]

I think we can all agree that July to October 2020 were "more normal" than mid-March to June 2020.

November 2020 was similar to now however people noticed it less due to it being short and nearer Christmas time.

December 2020 depended on where in the country you found yourself. Significantly more restrictive than July to October but not as restrictive as New Year's Eve onwards.

This year so far has been awful however better times are coming.

 

[Dave91131]

Mark Drakeford saying we may have to do social distancing, masks etc through 2021. He is a waste of space!!!

Covid: Tourism in Wales 'may start reopening by Easter'

First Minister Mark Drakeford said he could "see a path" towards parts of the tourist trade by April.

www.bbc.co.uk

Ditto on BBC Radio 5 Live, Stephen Nolan talking to various medical professionals in the last hour with a couple of call-ins from members of the public thrown in for good measure.

All bar none stating masks in enclosed spaces, enhanced hand washing, social distancing will need to continue throughout not just this year but in to 2022 as well.

 

[Richard Scott]

Mark Drakeford saying we may have to do social distancing, masks etc through 2021. He is a waste of space!!!

Covid: Tourism in Wales 'may start reopening by Easter'

First Minister Mark Drakeford said he could "see a path" towards parts of the tourist trade by April.

www.bbc.co.uk

Since when did he become an oracle on all things virus? Annoys me the way these politicians speak as though they were some kind of professor.

 

[Romsey]

Ditto on BBC Radio 5 Live, Stephen Nolan talking to various medical professionals in the last hour with a couple of call-ins from members of the public thrown in for good measure.

All bar none stating masks in enclosed spaces, enhanced hand washing, social distancing will need to continue throughout not just this year but in to 2022 as well.

 

[43096]

Ditto on BBC Radio 5 Live, Stephen Nolan talking to various medical professionals in the last hour with a couple of call-ins from members of the public thrown in for good measure.

All bar none stating masks in enclosed spaces, enhanced hand washing, social distancing will need to continue throughout not just this year but in to 2022 as well.

Yet no one on the disgraceful BBC ever asks these professionals/experts of who knows what reputation the obvious question: why do we need to carry on with these restrictions when the vaccines are effective? Because there is no justification for it.

 

[Solent&Wessex]

There is a report on Sky News where a "SAGE Scientist " has said May is far far too soon to lift restrictions and said "we are talking months here" [this seems to be how long it will take to ease restrictions after the first easing, schools, has taken place]. I can't copy and paste the article on my phone but the gist seems to be concerns about effectiveness at reducing transmission, everyone needing to gave 2 jabs before restrictions are eased, concerns about mutations, pressure on the NHS and the need to leave big gaps between each individual restriction being eased so if cases rise then the brakes can come on again.

Apparently talking about dates or even months "is giving people false hope".

COVID-19: When can lockdown finally end? This is what scientists are looking out for

One of the government's scientific advisers tells Sky News it could be "months" before most restrictions are lifted.

news.sky.com

 

[brad465]

The below image is of a comment that was made on the BBC yesterday (this image is from a website that allows comments and users to be searched more easily than on the BBC itself), and this comment caught my eye:

Covid-19: Avoid 'setting dates' for lifting lockdown, scientist warns

Leaders should not be "driven by a calendar", says a scientist advising the government.

www.bbc.co.uk

Article-Comments-Covid-19: Avoid 'setting dates' for lifting lockdown, scientist warns-Page 1

If what they say is true and is representative of at least a sizeable proportion of people their age, this implies that there are older people want to get their lives back again and that they won't stand of just "existing" once they're vaccinated, which would mean a decline in compliance as the vaccine continues to be rolled out.

 

[Yew]

There is a report on Sky News where a "SAGE Scientist " has said May is far far too soon to lift restrictions and said "we are talking months here" [this seems to be how long it will take to ease restrictions after the first easing, schools, has taken place]. I can't copy and paste the article on my phone but the gist seems to be concerns about effectiveness at reducing transmission, everyone needing to gave 2 jabs before restrictions are eased, concerns about mutations, pressure on the NHS and the need to leave big gaps between each individual restriction being eased so if cases rise then the brakes can come on again.

Apparently talking about dates or even months "is giving people false hope".

COVID-19: When can lockdown finally end? This is what scientists are looking out for

One of the government's scientific advisers tells Sky News it could be "months" before most restrictions are lifted.

news.sky.com

I feel like he has another thing coming if he's expecting to continue these inhumane, tryranical restrictions for any longer than strictly necessary. Just in case is no longer good enough, they MUST be required to prove beyond reasonable doubt that the measures are effective, required, and the least restrictive means possible. Restrictions are not the natural state of affairs, and a fair society must default to being open.

 

[anthony263]

Goid plus if a lot of the grey vote decide they had enough then government will probably start to listen

 

[yorksrob]

There is a report on Sky News where a "SAGE Scientist " has said May is far far too soon to lift restrictions and said "we are talking months here" [this seems to be how long it will take to ease restrictions after the first easing, schools, has taken place]. I can't copy and paste the article on my phone but the gist seems to be concerns about effectiveness at reducing transmission, everyone needing to gave 2 jabs before restrictions are eased, concerns about mutations, pressure on the NHS and the need to leave big gaps between each individual restriction being eased so if cases rise then the brakes can come on again.

Apparently talking about dates or even months "is giving people false hope".

COVID-19: When can lockdown finally end? This is what scientists are looking out for

One of the government's scientific advisers tells Sky News it could be "months" before most restrictions are lifted.

news.sky.com

Time for the public to start ignoring these people. They've had too much influence and too many listening ears in power. They need to be put back in their place.

 

[Bantamzen]

This forum has been predicting mass civil unrest for months on end. It has not materialised, and I daresay will not ever do so.

So if for example millions of people lost their jobs and all they had to look forward to was Universal Credit thanks to ongoing restrictions, you honestly think people would just sit on their hands? I will again express my surprise that more hasn't happened, but the fact that there are frequent if unreported protests against restrictions, combined with a noticeable sense of growing frustration in the population means that worse is just a single event away. I have said previously that I lived through the build up to the horrific 2001 riots in Bradford riots, so I do have some experience in how these things evolve. Dismiss it all you like, but much more this makes unrest increasingly likely.

Edit:

And as if by magic, here's the East Midlands Police Commissioner expressing his concerns that school closures and job losses could lead to social unrest.

School closures and job losses in UK 'could lead to social unrest' | Coronavirus | The Guardian

Young people are at risk of becoming unemployable and turning to crime amid partial school closures and rising joblessness, in a spiral that could lead to social unrest, the crime commissioner for England’s second biggest force has warned.

Covid was “oiling the wheels of violence”, David Jamieson, the police and crime commissioner (PCC) for the West Midlands, said in an interview with the Guardian.



“I think we’ve got a tsunami, which we’re holding back at the moment. If we don’t address the issues of people coming off furlough and then just having nothing they can see as their future, we are in trouble. I think it will eventually result in some sort of social unrest.”

Jamieson added: “We’ve virtually gone now a year that some children have not really experienced schooling. Some may not want to go back to school after this, and that group of people are going to go through life probably unemployable … And that group of people is going to lose it.”

 

[chris11256]

I can’t see social distancing carrying on all year. It would mean the government having to continue the furlough scheme for as long as places had capacity limits.

I think I it’ll come back to the political decision of an acceptance level of risk, as Whitty talked about a few weeks ago.

 

[Hadders]

The below image is of a comment that was made on the BBC yesterday (this image is from a website that allows comments and users to be searched more easily than on the BBC itself), and this comment caught my eye:

Covid-19: Avoid 'setting dates' for lifting lockdown, scientist warns

Leaders should not be "driven by a calendar", says a scientist advising the government.

www.bbc.co.uk

Article-Comments-Covid-19: Avoid 'setting dates' for lifting lockdown, scientist warns-Page 1

View attachment 90070
If what they say is true and is representative of at least a sizeable proportion of people their age, this implies that there are older people want to get their lives back again and that they won't stand of just "existing" once they're vaccinated, which would mean a decline in compliance as the vaccine continues to be rolled out.

I am hearing similar comments from people I know who have been vacinated.

 

[rumoto]

I can’t see social distancing carrying on all year. It would mean the government having to continue the furlough scheme for as long as places had capacity limits.

I think I it’ll come back to the political decision of an acceptance level of risk, as Whitty talked about a few weeks ago.

Exactly; I have found an interesting piece of news about how vaccinations are progressing. Looking at the last graph, if the vaccination pace continues at the current weekly rate, 75% of the UK population (50 million people) will be fully vaccinated (with both doses) by 3 July; therefore, all Covid restrictions should end around this date.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...y-end-of-may-no-10-adviser-reveals-mtp6njwpl/

The great majority of adults will have received a coronavirus jab by the end of May, a senior government adviser has revealed, after an official announcement that all the over-50s will be inoculated by the end of April.

Vaccines are the exit strategy and the recent pace of about 3 million jabs a week is at the upper end of what epidemiologists had anticipated. If it keeps up, the government will hit its target to offer vaccines to the 15 million people in the top priority groups by mid-February.

 

[Class 33]

I can’t see social distancing carrying on all year. It would mean the government having to continue the furlough scheme for as long as places had capacity limits.

I think I it’ll come back to the political decision of an acceptance level of risk, as Whitty talked about a few weeks ago.

Exactly. Despite all the rubbish SAGE and other so called "experts" are spurting out, I think social distancing will at long last be finally scrapped by late July at the latest. Even late July would be too late really. Some on this forum predicting it will be scrapped by mid May. That's certainly very feasible and realistic, and I hope they turn out to be right. But there's no way it will still be continueing all year now. The stats are very much on our side now. They're falling week on week now. Two to three months now and they'll all be extremely low. All these vaccinations and these falling stats will get us out of this social distancing nightmare.

 

[Yew]

Exactly; I have found an interesting piece of news about how vaccinations are progressing. Looking at the last graph, if the vaccination pace continues at the current weekly rate, 75% of the UK population (50 million people) will be fully vaccinated (with both doses) by 3 July; therefore, all Covid restrictions should end around this date.

Or 95% of adults

 

[brad465]

Looks like somebody is trying to rally support for the now going ahead local elections:

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1357998564945915906

Pubs with no alcohol? What is the point. Government control has gone way too far.

I'm not surprised this concept has upset Farage, given how much he likes a "PFL".

 

[yorksrob]

I will be expressing my view on lockdown at the local elections. Whether this is through a spoilt ballot or an explicitly anti-lockdown candidate will depend on whether such a candidate is available.

 

[duncanp]

Looks like somebody is trying to rally support for the now going ahead local elections:

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1357998564945915906

View attachment 90084
I'm not surprised this concept has upset Farage, given how much he likes a "PFL".

I think there is a bit of selctive "leaking" going on to different newspapers.

The Telegraph carried the story about pubs being allowed to open but not serving alcohol.

But in the Independent they reported the same story, with the additional line that "..a government source said that this proposal was a non starter...", which was repeated on several radio news bulletins this morning.

It may well happen that pubs are allowed to serve takeaway alcohol from Easter, with possibly beer gardens opening then as well. Pubs would then open fully in May, with no silly rules about substantial meals and 10pm closing time.

 

[brad465]

I think there is a bit of selctive "leaking" going on to different newspapers.

The Telegraph carried the story about pubs being allowed to open but not serving alcohol.

But in the Independent they reported the same story, with the additional line that "..a government source said that this proposal was a non starter...", which was repeated on several radio news bulletins this morning.

It may well happen that pubs are allowed to serve takeaway alcohol from Easter, with possibly beer gardens opening then as well. Pubs would then open fully in May, with no silly rules about substantial meals and 10pm closing time.

As has been suggested before, I think the Government will want everything open by the time of the local elections for the sake of wanting to have support in them. When it comes to social distancing I don't think it will be gone by the elections, but I suspect the Government will at the very least want to say it's lifting is not far away by that point, especially as the vaccine rollout should have reached the top 9 groups by then for at least the first dose.