How much longer will social distancing go on for in the UK?

[Dent]

As I understand it, groups 1 - 4 account for most of the deaths, but groups 5 - 9 account for most of the cases where people are hospitalised, but they then recover.

So vaccinating groups 5 - 9 will reduce pressure on the NHS by a considerable amount.

But I don't think we have to wait until everyone in groups 5 - 9 is vaccinated before restrictions can be released.

If you vaccinate between half and two thirds of groups 5 - 9, that should reduce pressure on the NHS to a level where they can cope.

Groups 5-9 cover most hospitalisations by virtue of Groups 5 and 6 covering most of them. I don't believe there are many hospitalisations from Groups 7 - 9, so hospital occupancy would be largely dependent on the vaccination of Groups 1 - 6.

 

[Bertie the bus]

I believe Groups 1-6 cover most hospitalisations, so why wait for Groups 7-9 to be vaccinated?

Because as I've said there are no longer 9 groups in practice; there are just 2 - those most likely to die and those most likely to end up in hospital but not die. It is pretty obvious what is happening and why. I have not suggested I agree with it or think it is logical or rational but just pointing out what has happened and what I believe the likely consequences will be.

 

[yorksrob]

Because as I've said there are no longer 9 groups in practice; there are just 2 - those most likely to die and those most likely to end up in hospital but not die. It is pretty obvious what is happening and why. I have not suggested I agree with it or think it is logical or rational but just pointing out what has happened and what I believe the likely consequences will be.

Semantics. 8 and 9 are probably as close to people like me, who are likely the top of the "everyone else" category as thet are to categories 8 - 9.

 

[Dent]

Because as I've said there are no longer 9 groups in practice; there are just 2 - those most likely to die and those most likely to end up in hospital but not die. It is pretty obvious what is happening and why. I have not suggested I agree with it or think it is logical or rational but just pointing out what has happened and what I believe the likely consequences will be.

Groups 7-9 are not "those most likely to end up in hospital", they are far less likely to end up in hospital than Groups 1-6.

 

[Bertie the bus]

Groups 7-9 are not "those most likely to end up in hospital", they are far less likely to end up in hospital than Groups 1-6.

Yes they are. They are a priority group and have been lumped in with groups 5 and 6. It really isn't a difficult concept to understand.

 

[yorksrob]

Yes they are. They are a priority group and have been lumped in with groups 5 and 6. It really isn't a difficult concept to understand.

The groupings are mainly based on risk according to age, and this increases at a steady rate from childhood. There is no gap between category 9 and everyone else.

 

[DorkingMain]

Interestingly, she is one of the more optimistic ones in suggesting normality in 2022.

Personally, I could live with rule of six and masks into 2022. The rest of it a can't, and I won't.

She uses the phrase "if you want to get rid of it". Well we won't be. We won't be closing our borders, so it will always be coming in anyway, so there's no point trying to get rid of it.

They should have asked her whether they would be persuing this policy in South Africa.

I can live with Rule of 6 and distancing until the majority of the population has been vaccinated, but after that point if people haven't taken the vaccine and become ill with COVID, it's their choice and society shouldn't be having to rally around to stop that.

I sincerely hope we see a significant reduction in restrictions by the end of March (when the top 9 groups should be largely all done). I know Tier 2 with a few tweaks was mentioned and while not ideal, it would be a greatly welcome move towards normality.

 

[yorksrob]

I can live with Rule of 6 and distancing until the majority of the population has been vaccinated, but after that point if people haven't taken the vaccine and become ill with COVID, it's their choice and society shouldn't be having to rally around to stop that.

I sincerely hope we see a significant reduction in restrictions by the end of March (when the top 9 groups should be largely all done). I know Tier 2 with a few tweaks was mentioned and while not ideal, it would be a greatly welcome move towards normality.

I agree. I'd particularly like to see "stay at home" dead and buried some time before then. I fear SAGE will need to be brought to heel first though.

 

[Domh245]

Yes they are. They are a priority group and have been lumped in with groups 5 and 6. It really isn't a difficult concept to understand.

Groups 7-9 are ages 64-50, which as per the graphic in this post, are at best 25% of hospitalisations, and 45% of ICU admissions. Not quite "those most likely to end up in hospital", but still necessary to vaccinate to prevent overwhelming of the health service

 

[DorkingMain]

I agree. I'd particularly like to see "stay at home" dead and buried some time before then. I fear SAGE will need to be brought to heel first though.

There's a very gaping hole in the government's approach to advice given by SAGE, and their "follow the science" approach - if we followed the science in this manner with regards to everything, we'll all be moving round in plastic bubbles coated in cotton wool. Scientific advice is just that - advice about science. It doesn't offer any sort of context on social, cultural, economic, political issues etc. and should be treated as part of a wider context by our elected politicians - that's what we elect them for. If we wanted a purely "stats" based approach to society, we could just ditch Parliament and let the civil service run everything.

The problem is BoJo and co. are pretty much the dregs of the Tory party, and they haven't got the slightest clue how consider things in context, or to make a forward-looking policy on things, or to balance various issues. Everything they do is reactive - "This needs solving, we'll do this!", without the slightest consideration as to the wider impact of plugging that hole in the bucket in that way. The interesting thing about that is - their incompetence has brought a unique level of resentment from both the left and the right - people are dying in huge numbers *and* we're in perpetual lockdown. They've failed to appease either aim

 

[WelshBluebird]

In terms of vaccinations and how the different groups getting vaccinated can affect restrictions, aren't there two things at play?

The first is obviously deaths. We should soon see a huge drop in that because the vast majority of people who did are in the ages were have almost totally covered now.
The second is impact on the NHS. Given the noise about protecting the NHS throughout the pandemic - surely this one is obvious? Yet people here seem to be suggesting we don't worry about it, or somehow worrying about this is "moving the goalposts". It isn't moving the goalposts. It is just bloody obvious.

Now of course, as we do vaccinate the older groups, the average age of deaths and hospitalisation will likely come down. We do need to be careful that there isn't a situation where there is a moving target of those averages being used to justify keeping restrictions. But there is no evidence of that at the moment.

 

[yorksrob]

In terms of vaccinations and how the different groups getting vaccinated can affect restrictions, aren't there two things at play?

The first is obviously deaths. We should soon see a huge drop in that because the vast majority of people who did are in the ages were have almost totally covered now.
The second is impact on the NHS. Given the noise about protecting the NHS throughout the pandemic - surely this one is obvious? Yet people here seem to be suggesting we don't worry about it, or somehow worrying about this is "moving the goalposts". It isn't moving the goalposts. It is just bloody obvious.

Now of course, as we do vaccinate the older groups, the average age of deaths and hospitalisation will likely come down. We do need to be careful that there isn't a situation where there is a moving target of those averages being used to justify keeping restrictions. But there is no evidence of that at the moment.

This is simply not the case.

Of course we can't just drop all restrictions whilst the intermediate risk groups are vaccinated, but at the same time it is completely unacceptable and unjustified to expect people to imprison themselves in their homes for months on end whist this happens.

The balance is simply not right. At the very least, there should be the acceptance that people can undertake activities in outdoor settings and meet people there in a distanced way. Yes, it will lead to more hospitalisations, but I'm sorry - so does everything.

There should be a balance struck, but at the moment, no one is balancing it. Everything is being sacrificed on the altar of supression of transmission.

 

[soccermad]

Yorksrob

I do not agree at all with your analysis

Whilst we still have Covidiots we need to keep locked down as per the current rules until all of the at risk groups have had the vaccine for three weeks

Just look at the science NOT the covid denying people with no logic in their argument.

 

[ChrisC]

This is simply not the case.

Of course we can't just drop all restrictions whilst the intermediate risk groups are vaccinated, but at the same time it is completely unacceptable and unjustified to expect people to imprison themselves in their homes for months on end whist this happens.

The balance is simply not right. At the very least, there should be the acceptance that people can undertake activities in outdoor settings and meet people there in a distanced way. Yes, it will lead to more hospitalisations, but I'm sorry - so does everything.

There should be a balance struck, but at the moment, no one is balancing it. Everything is being sacrificed on the altar of supression of transmission.

If the numbers getting Covid continue to fall at the current rate over the next few weeks and vaccinations continue as they are I would have thought that by Easter we ought to be able to return to something like we had last summer. I could live with a few months like it was between July and September last year and then hopefully by the time the majority of the population have been vaccinated more and more restrictions can be lifted. Perhaps best not to lift restrictions until after the Easter weekend so that crowds do not flock to tourist areas.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

Whilst we still have Covidiots we need to keep locked down as per the current rules until all of the at risk groups have had the vaccine for three weeks

No we do not.

Funny how we managed to have significant "normality" between July and September 2020 without even the sight of a vaccine, isn't it?

(yes, ok, we have the "more transmissible" variant now, but even then with over 10mil people vaccinated and a proportion of the population with existing immunity, there are less vectors for the virus to spread via than there was in say, March or October 2020)

 

[Yew]

Yorksrob

I do not agree at all with your analysis

Whilst we still have Covidiots we need to keep locked down as per the current rules until all of the at risk groups have had the vaccine for three weeks

Just look at the science NOT the covid denying people with no logic in their argument.

The law states that any measures should be the least restrictive possible

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Feb 2021 ==

If the numbers getting Covid continue to fall at the current rate over the next few weeks and vaccinations continue as they are I would have thought that by Easter we ought to be able to return to something like we had last summer. I could live with a few months like it was between July and September last year and then hopefully by the time the majority of the population have been vaccinated more and more restrictions can be lifted. Perhaps best not to lift restrictions until after the Easter weekend so that crowds do not flock to tourist areas.

I do not see why such restrictions could possibly be considered necessary once the most vulnerable among us have been vaccinated. There is simply no reason to draw this out for longer than strictly necessary.

 

[DB]

No we do not.

Agree!

Funny how we managed to have significant "normality" between July and September 2020 without even the sight of a vaccine, isn't it?

I think there is a degree of rose tinted glasses appearing regarding last summer! Yes, it was a good bit less crap than the current situation, but it was still crap and a long way from normal!

 

[WelshBluebird]

The balance is simply not right. At the very least, there should be the acceptance that people can undertake activities in outdoor settings and meet people there in a distanced way. Yes, it will lead to more hospitalisations, but I'm sorry - so does everything.

I'm not saying we shouldn't look into being able to do that (and more I hope!) if possible.
What I am saying is that vaccinating the groups that are most likely to die of COVID isn't a guarantee that we will be able to, we have to consider NHS capacity too.
This isn't just about "stopping all hospitalisations" - because yes that isn't realistic. It is about stopping enough hospitalisationsso we are not at risk of hospitals up and down the country having to close their doors to other patients who need treatment because their beds are full / their staff are busy with covid paitents.

 

[6862]

I think there is a degree of rose tinted glasses appearing regarding last summer! Yes, it was a good bit less crap than the current situation, but it was still crap and a long way from normal!

Definitely - we are being abused by the government and part of that abuse is them making us feel like we have some sort of privilege when we are allowed to see 5 other people/visit family etc.

 

[DB]

I'm not saying we shouldn't look into being able to do that (and more I hope!) if possible.
What I am saying is that vaccinating the groups that are most likely to die of COVID isn't a guarantee that we will be able to, we have to consider NHS capacity too.
This isn't just about "stopping all hospitalisations" - because yes that isn't realistic. It is about stopping enough hospitalisationsso we are not at risk of hospitals up and down the country having to close their doors to other patients who need treatment because their beds are full / their staff are busy with covid paitents.

We will be heading out of the respiratory virus season anyway as soon as the weather starts to warm up, and that will also have a significant effect.

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

I noticed that the Isle of Man, which is now COVID-free and have ended all social distancing, were sending people to prison for breaking COVID-rules. At first I was shocked, but quite honestly, it seems to have worked.

 

[greyman42]

I agree. I'd particularly like to see "stay at home" dead and buried some time before then. I fear SAGE will need to be brought to heel first though.

Judging by the traffic on the roads in York this afternoon, stay at home is already dead and buried.

 

[packermac]

No we do not.

Funny how we managed to have significant "normality" between July and September 2020 without even the sight of a vaccine, isn't it?

(yes, ok, we have the "more transmissible" variant now, but even then with over 10mil people vaccinated and a proportion of the population with existing immunity, there are less vectors for the virus to spread via than there was in say, March or October 2020)

I must have slept through July to September last year. I do not remember "significant normality"

 

[DB]

I noticed that the Isle of Man, which is now COVID-free and have ended all social distancing, were sending people to prison for breaking COVID-rules. At first I was shocked, but quite honestly, it seems to have worked.

They are a small island with a small population and stamped it out before it became endemic. Sending people to prison is not likely to have made any difference either way.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

I must have slept through July to September last year. I do not remember "significant normality"

I was able to freely travel around the country, go to a pub/restaurant, visit family and friends in their or my house. Ok, mass gatherings weren't permitted, and face coverings were mandatory, I'll give you that.

But I wasn't barricaded within my house, only be able to leave with a "reasonable excuse", I wasn't confined within my own local authority. As @DavidB said, it may not have been "normal" as in pre-covid, but it was significantly more normal than what we have now.

 

[VauxhallandI]

Until they ditch the masks nothing is normal to me. End of.

 

[yorksrob]

Yorksrob

I do not agree at all with your analysis

Whilst we still have Covidiots we need to keep locked down as per the current rules until all of the at risk groups have had the vaccine for three weeks

Just look at the science NOT the covid denying people with no logic in their argument.

The science says, and aways has said, the risk of transmitting covid is minimal outdoors where people aren't in crowds. There is no logic in telling people to stay indoors.

If the numbers getting Covid continue to fall at the current rate over the next few weeks and vaccinations continue as they are I would have thought that by Easter we ought to be able to return to something like we had last summer. I could live with a few months like it was between July and September last year and then hopefully by the time the majority of the population have been vaccinated more and more restrictions can be lifted. Perhaps best not to lift restrictions until after the Easter weekend so that crowds do not flock to tourist areas.

Hopefully. That said, Easter is over two months away and I'm not sure I can tolerate the stay at home order until then.

In terms of the tourist areas let people go outdoors well before then, then people will be less likely to flock.

I'm not saying we shouldn't look into being able to do that (and more I hope!) if possible.
What I am saying is that vaccinating the groups that are most likely to die of COVID isn't a guarantee that we will be able to, we have to consider NHS capacity too.
This isn't just about "stopping all hospitalisations" - because yes that isn't realistic. It is about stopping enough hospitalisationsso we are not at risk of hospitals up and down the country having to close their doors to other patients who need treatment because their beds are full / their staff are busy with covid paitents.

I agree, however there still needs to be a balance.

Judging by the traffic on the roads in York this afternoon, stay at home is already dead and buried.

Fair doos. I still think its preferable not to have to evade unreasonable rules in the first place.

 

[MikeWM]

Until they ditch the masks nothing is normal to me. End of.

100%.

Plus now the idea that they are miraculous life-saving devices - and everyone not wearing one is a potential murderer - is firmly engrained in the minds of much of the population, far more so than 6 months ago, I wonder how much more difficult it will now be to do 'normal' things for those who cannot wear one.

 

[Ediswan]

I noticed that the Isle of Man, which is now COVID-free and have ended all social distancing, were sending people to prison for breaking COVID-rules. At first I was shocked, but quite honestly, it seems to have worked.

Short prison sentences for breaking the law are business as usual for the Isle of Man. I doubt there was any expectation it would do anything to directly reduce transmission.

 

[Class 33]

The law states that any measures should be the least restrictive possible

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Feb 2021 ==


I do not see why such restrictions could possibly be considered necessary once the most vulnerable among us have been vaccinated. There is simply no reason to draw this out for longer than strictly necessary.

Indeed. If this summer ends up being the same sort of situation as last summer, this will be just not good enough, and not acceptable. This year with the situation we're in now, there should be no need atall for social distancing, black and yellow hazzard tapes here there and everywhere, having to wear horrible face masks on public transport, all these horrible strict PA announcements on trains such as "It is a legal requirement to wear face masks at all times on trains. If you do not do so, you will be fined. The British Transport Police will be patrolling this train this morning. Anyone found not wearing a face mask and refusing to do so, will be ejected from this train.". We really will not need all this this summer and going forwards! We need to start moving on and back to normal life sooner rather than later.