How much longer will social distancing go on for in the UK?

[initiation]

Morning everyone.

This Times article has a claimed preview of the unlocking claiming it "will prioritise open-air contact and set out dates for the opening of retail and then hospitality after pupils return to classrooms."

Local elections to go ahead when Covid lockdown eases

Local elections will go ahead in May, and outdoor sport and socialising are set to be among the first activities to be allowed after schools return next month,

www.thetimes.co.uk

I notice this bit here....so schools open 8 March, other social gatherings outside are not permitted until a few weeks later - that pretty much takes us to Easter before lockdown ends. Even then retail, pubs etc... will be after this.

Outdoor activity is likely to be permitted first in each phase. Team and individual sports such as golf and tennis, along with limited social gatherings outside, would therefore be possible within weeks of a planned return of schools from 8 March

We are screwed, the Government and their advisors are loving the control - it is inevitable we will have restrictions all year and into next winter and it seems there is nothing we can do.

 

[Richard Scott]

We are screwed, the Government and their advisors are loving the control - it is inevitable we will have restrictions all year and into next winter and it seems there is nothing we can do.

I've always maintained they're enjoying the control and don't want to relinquish it and afraid no-one is going to persuade me otherwise. However, compliance does seem to be dwindling, more traffic on roads, more people out and about compared to March/April last year. More people you speak to also fed up and starting to realise that with vaccination program these restrictions must nearly have run their course.

 

[nlogax]

I've always maintained they're enjoying the control and don't want to relinquish it and afraid no-one is going to persuade me otherwise.

But for what purpose? What would be the point?

 

[initiation]

But for what purpose? What would be the point?

Unless there is some great conspiracy going on (which I don't believe) it is just the sense of power and we know better than you. You see it with the likes of Public Health England or TfL nannying about junk food/what we can eat. You see it with some police forces over zealously enforcing guidance. You see it with people abusing those who don't wear masks. You see it with high-vis road warriors who come in 4x4s decked out with flood lights offering support in 'emergencies'. Give people some power and it generally makes them feel good.

These people believe they are better than everyone else and that we should do as they say.

 

[6862]

We are screwed, the Government and their advisors are loving the control - it is inevitable we will have restrictions all year and into next winter and it seems there is nothing we can do.

I've always maintained they're enjoying the control and don't want to relinquish it and afraid no-one is going to persuade me otherwise. However, compliance does seem to be dwindling, more traffic on roads, more people out and about compared to March/April last year. More people you speak to also fed up and starting to realise that with vaccination program these restrictions must nearly have run their course.

I agree with both of you. It's human nature to want to be the most powerful and be in control. Boris and co have got that and I can't see them letting go of it any time soon, especially as they know that their careers will be finished if this ever ends. It also explains why we have people like Jeremy Hunt and Kier Starmer arguing for stricter rules - they can see that there is the opportunity to grab some power and authority for themselves (if not formally, definitely by means of influencing the government and saying things to terrify the public) and they want a piece of it too.

To be clear, I don't think this is all a conspiracy. I just think it's humanity behaving as we have always behaved - selfishly and trying to grab as much power for ourselves as possible.

 

[johntea]

Local elections going ahead...but bring your own pencil and wear a face mask!

...those are in May

 

[brad465]

The Government has said they plan to vaccinate all over 50s by May (although haven't specified when in May in particular this will be). CRG chair Mark Harper has said "it would be "almost impossible to justify having any restrictions in place" once the over 50s had been vaccinated.", suggesting most restrictions will be going by that point or if not some very intense rumblings in the party will be happening instead:

Covid: All over-50s in UK to be offered vaccine by May

Nearly 11 million people have already received a first jab against coronavirus.

www.bbc.co.uk

All adults aged 50 and over should receive a coronavirus vaccine by May, Downing Street has confirmed.

Previously ministers had said it was their "ambition" to vaccinate the first nine priority groups by the spring, but the Cabinet Office confirmed the May date on Friday.

The UK had vaccinated more than 10.4 million people as of Wednesday.

The government has said it is on track to vaccinate the first four priority groups by 15 February.

These include the over 70s, frontline health and care workers and the clinically vulnerable.

In a press release confirming May's local elections will go ahead, the Cabinet Office said: "The UK's vaccination programme is planned to have reached all nine priority cohorts by May, meaning that the government can commit to go ahead with these polls with confidence."

A spokesman said Prime Minister Boris Johnson would set out a "precise timeline" for vaccinations when he publishes the government's roadmap for lifting lockdown restrictions in England on 16 February.

Previously ministers had not discussed a date by which over-50s would have been offered a jab.

Coronavirus cases are showing clear signs of falling across the UK, the latest figures suggest, and the R number - the average number of people someone with Covid will go on to infect - has dropped slightly to between 0.7 and 1.

Mark Harper, chairman of the Covid Recovery Group made up of Conservative MPs who want lockdown to be eased, said it would be "almost impossible to justify having any restrictions in place" once the over 50s had been vaccinated.

His comments come after Prof Graham Medley, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, said the government should avoid "setting dates" for lifting lockdown and should focus on meeting criteria rather than following a calendar.

 

[6862]

The Government has said they plan to vaccinate all over 50s by May (although haven't specified when in May in particular this will be). CRG chair Mark Harper has said "it would be "almost impossible to justify having any restrictions in place" once the over 50s had been vaccinated.", suggesting most restrictions will be going by that point or if not some very intense rumblings in the party will be happening instead:

Covid: All over-50s in UK to be offered vaccine by May

Nearly 11 million people have already received a first jab against coronavirus.

www.bbc.co.uk

The problem is that although Conservative back benchers do hold a lot of influence (even power), with the government effectively ruling by decree in a sort of state of emergency, the backbenchers are very limited as to what they can do. Of course they can vote against extending the measures, but their next opportunity to do this will be in March (?), and I'm fairly certain that even a mass Conservative rebellion wouldn't be able to stop the government being able to keep the restrictions.

 

[duncanp]

The problem is that although Conservative back benchers do hold a lot of influence (even power), with the government effectively ruling by decree in a sort of state of emergency, the backbenchers are very limited as to what they can do. Of course they can vote against extending the measures, but their next opportunity to do this will be in March (?), and I'm fairly certain that even a mass Conservative rebellion wouldn't be able to stop the government being able to keep the restrictions.

True, but once Boris publishes the lockdown exit plan, he will have to have a jolly good reason for backtracking on it.

Such reasons would NOT include whinging from SAGE scientists, Devi Sridhar, Professor Pantsdown, Nicola Sturgeon, Mark Drakeford. Sadiq Khant........etc. etc. etc

If he were to backtrack on the lockdown exit plan, he would be toast, and I think there would be a move to replace him with Rishi Sunak or Sajid Javid.

 

[chris11256]

True, but once Boris publishes the lockdown exit plan, he will have to have a jolly good reason for backtracking on it.

Such reasons would NOT include whinging from SAGE scientists, Devi Sridhar, Professor Pantsdown, Nicola Sturgeon, Mark Drakeford. Sadiq Khant........etc. etc. etc

If he were to backtrack on the lockdown exit plan, he would be toast, and I think there would be a move to replace him with Rishi Sunak or Sajid Javid.

Exactly. If enough MP's are annoyed then either parliament can reject statutory instruments issued by the government or conservative MP's can remove boris as leader. Plus there is the renewal of the 2020 coronavirus act coming up in March as well.

On a cynical side I think that easing is going to be timed so that come the May elections, very few restrictions are still in place.

 

[6862]

True, but once Boris publishes the lockdown exit plan, he will have to have a jolly good reason for backtracking on it.

Such reasons would NOT include whinging from SAGE scientists, Devi Sridhar, Professor Pantsdown, Nicola Sturgeon, Mark Drakeford. Sadiq Khant........etc. etc. etc

If he were to backtrack on the lockdown exit plan, he would be toast, and I think there would be a move to replace him with Rishi Sunak or Sajid Javid.

He's already finished. He was finished the moment he announced the first lockdown and thus destroyed the economy. For him it's just a question of how long he can survive. And as he has shown so far, all he needs to do to stifle debate is announce some sort of emergency measures and no-one can question or criticise his actions, because 'we're following the science'. He'll be able to survive for as long as he can keep the emergency situation going for.

 

[duncanp]

On a cynical side I think that easing is going to be timed so that come the May elections, very few restrictions are still in place.

Exactly.

So to get the feelgood factor going, pubs and restaurants will open sometime in April, after shops opening late March.

And if Boris can gain some brownie points by opening up things ahead of Scotland, or being ahead of Nicola Sturgeon in the vaccination race, then so much the better.

 

[Solent&Wessex]

"A spokesman said Prime Minister Boris Johnson would set out a "precise timeline" for vaccinations when he publishes the government's roadmap for lifting lockdown restrictions in England on 16 February."

Forgive me if I have missed something, but I thought Boris has said many times that the roadmap was being published / announced week commencing the 22nd February.

Does this imply it has been brought forward?

 

[packermac]

He's already finished. He was finished the moment he announced the first lockdown and thus destroyed the economy. For him it's just a question of how long he can survive. And as he has shown so far, all he needs to do to stifle debate is announce some sort of emergency measures and no-one can question or criticise his actions, because 'we're following the science'. He'll be able to survive for as long as he can keep the emergency situation going for.

On the basis of your first line most world leaders and or state leaders are finished then. Somehow I do not think that will be the case.

 

[DB]

On the basis of your first line most world leaders and or state leaders are finished then. Somehow I do not think that will be the case.

He's been more incompetent than most - he seems to have a knack for doing and timing things to please nobody - those against restrictions believe he shouldn't have done a lot of it at all, and those for them think he was too late. What is going to really go against him is that despite all the damaging restrictions the UK is towards the top of the list for numbers of deaths.

 

[6862]

On the basis of your first line most world leaders and or state leaders are finished then. Somehow I do not think that will be the case.

He's made a mess of it from the perspectives of both pro-lockdowners (from their perspective he hasn't clamped down hard enough on human rights the virus), and anti-lockdowners (he's kept this madness going for far too long, destroyed the country and ruined the prospects of future generations). I think it's fair to say he's got few supporters at the moment.

 

[bramling]

The Government has said they plan to vaccinate all over 50s by May (although haven't specified when in May in particular this will be). CRG chair Mark Harper has said "it would be "almost impossible to justify having any restrictions in place" once the over 50s had been vaccinated.", suggesting most restrictions will be going by that point or if not some very intense rumblings in the party will be happening instead:

Covid: All over-50s in UK to be offered vaccine by May

Nearly 11 million people have already received a first jab against coronavirus.

www.bbc.co.uk

The trouble is I still don’t see how they reconcile that with the under 50s.

“Thanks guys for putting your life on hold for over a year, sorry that we fined you £10k for holding a party, actually Covid was never that much of an issue for you lot, so off you go to take your chances, and all the vaccinated boomers will be out and about enjoying their bumper holiday bookings and can still give Covid to you whilst not being at risk themselves any more”. That isn’t exactly an easy message to sell, especially having spent trillions on all this.

 

[duncanp]

He's made a mess of it from the perspectives of both pro-lockdowners (from their perspective he hasn't clamped down hard enough on human rights the virus), and anti-lockdowners (he's kept this madness going for far too long, destroyed the country and ruined the prospects of future generations). I think it's fair to say he's got few supporters at the moment.

Perhaps he will go once almost all the restrictions have been removed, and before the economic damage starts to bite.

You could see him announce his resignation at the Conservative Party Conference in the autumn.

Margaret Thatcher realised when her time was up, and her resignation arguably enabled John Major to win the 1992 general election.

Similarly with Theresa May, whose resignation enabled Boris Johnson to win the 2019 election.

So if Boris goes this year, he will give his successor time for the economic recovery to take hold before the election in 2024.

It may also help the unionist cause in Scotland, given that Boris Johnson is unpopular North of the border, so that when/if IndyRef 2 happens, the result that Nicola Sturgeon wants may not be quite such a foregone conclusion as she thinks it is.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 5 Feb 2021 ==

He's made a mess of it from the perspectives of both pro-lockdowners (from their perspective he hasn't clamped down hard enough on human rights the virus), and anti-lockdowners (he's kept this madness going for far too long, destroyed the country and ruined the prospects of future generations). I think it's fair to say he's got few supporters at the moment.

Perhaps he will go once almost all the restrictions have been removed, and before the economic damage starts to bite.

You could see him announce his resignation at the Conservative Party Conference in the autumn.

Margaret Thatcher realised when her time was up, and her resignation arguably enabled John Major to win the 1992 general election.

Similarly with Theresa May, whose resignation enabled Boris Johnson to win the 2019 election.

So if Boris goes this year, he will give his successor time for the economic recovery to take hold before the election in 2024. It may also help the unionist cause in Scotland, given that Boris Johnson is unpopular North of the border, so that when/if IndyRef 2 happens, the result that Nicola Sturgeon wants may not be quite such a foregone conclusion as she thinks it is.

The trouble is I still don’t see how they reconcile that with the under 50s.

“Thanks guys for putting your life on hold for over a year, sorry that we fined you £10k for holding a party, actually Covid was never that much of an issue for you lot, so off you to take your chances, and all the vaccinated boomers will be out and about enjoying their bumper holiday bookings and can still give Covid to you whilst not being at risk themselves any more”. That isn’t exactly an easy message to sell, especially having spent trillions on all this.

I wonder what the under 50s would prefer though. I am speaking as a "boomer" who should be vaccinated by May.

Would the under 50s prefer to have the economy opened up, so that they can enjoy the freedom of being able to go out and about, recover their mental health if it has been damaged, get a new job if they have lost one, or retain their job if it has been under threat due to the lockdown.

Or would they prefer to be locked down until the end of August with all the consequences for the economy and mental health.

Would anyone here who is under 50 care to comment?

 

[brad465]

The problem is that although Conservative back benchers do hold a lot of influence (even power), with the government effectively ruling by decree in a sort of state of emergency, the backbenchers are very limited as to what they can do. Of course they can vote against extending the measures, but their next opportunity to do this will be in March (?), and I'm fairly certain that even a mass Conservative rebellion wouldn't be able to stop the government being able to keep the restrictions.

At the moment there are 70 MPs in the CRG cause, as the Covid situation improves there's every possibility more will join it, which will become more apparent as the fallout is revealed, with the budget a likely landmark for that.

The trouble is I still don’t see how they reconcile that with the under 50s.

“Thanks guys for putting your life on hold for over a year, sorry that we fined you £10k for holding a party, actually Covid was never that much of an issue for you lot, so off you go to take your chances, and all the vaccinated boomers will be out and about enjoying their bumper holiday bookings and can still give Covid to you whilst not being at risk themselves any more”. That isn’t exactly an easy message to sell, especially having spent trillions on all this.

One possible way is if, as currently expected, the seasonal variation does its thing and by May its clear infections are very low and will remain so until the autumn, so it can be sold lifting restrictions doesn't cause serious concern but the vaccine can keep being rolled out before the time comes around it's more of a perceived risk again.

 

[initiation]

Would anyone here who is under 50 care to comment?

I'm 30 and considering i've consistently argued against these heavy handed restrictions I know what my answer would be...but how that plays out in the wider population i'm not sure. The media have done a great job of terrifying the population compared to the relative risks.

 

[takno]

The trouble is I still don’t see how they reconcile that with the under 50s.

“Thanks guys for putting your life on hold for over a year, sorry that we fined you £10k for holding a party, actually Covid was never that much of an issue for you lot, so off you go to take your chances, and all the vaccinated boomers will be out and about enjoying their bumper holiday bookings and can still give Covid to you whilst not being at risk themselves any more”. That isn’t exactly an easy message to sell, especially having spent trillions on all this.

I agree that they've set themselves up for a massive backlash, when they have to admit that all this stuff about how dangerous it is to the over 50s was wildly over-egged all along. The vaccinated over 50s aren't going to hang around indoors though, and frankly I don't see that many under 50s being too upbeat if they realise the reason they're being kept home for another couple of months is to cover up the fact that they've been lied to and mistreated all along.

 

[brad465]

Forgive me if I have missed something, but I thought Boris has said many times that the roadmap was being published / announced week commencing the 22nd February.

Does this imply it has been brought forward?

If that's true it's a very subtle way of doing so, it's in the article still but maybe further clarification down the line may still be needed.

 

[yorksrob]

I wonder what the under 50s would prefer though. I am speaking as a "boomer" who should be vaccinated by May.

Would the under 50s prefer to have the economy opened up, so that they can enjoy the freedom of being able to go out and about, recover their mental health if it has been damaged, get a new job if they have lost one, or retain their job if it has been under threat due to the lockdown.

Or would they prefer to be locked down until the end of August with all the consequences for the economy and mental health.

Would anyone here who is under 50 care to comment?

As a fat forty-something, I hope they continue to vaccinate the adult population, however lockdown needs to go into the dustbin of history at the earliest opportunity. "Stay at Home" needs to make like the Moody Blues and go now.

 

[brad465]

As a fat forty-something, I hope they continue to vaccinate the adult population, however lockdown needs to go into the dustbin of history at the earliest opportunity. "Stay at Home" needs to make like the Moody Blues and go now.

I don't know why but that quote has come out as something I said, when it looks like something @duncanp said.

 

[yorksrob]

I don't know why but that quote has come out as something I said, when it looks like something @duncanp said.

I think it's a glitch on the system. It's done it a few times. I've amended it manually now

 

[bramling]

I agree that they've set themselves up for a massive backlash, when they have to admit that all this stuff about how dangerous it is to the over 50s was wildly over-egged all along. The vaccinated over 50s aren't going to hang around indoors though, and frankly I don't see that many under 50s being too upbeat if they realise the reason they're being kept home for another couple of months is to cover up the fact that they've been lied to and mistreated all along.

This is exactly how I see it. If the under-50s are going to be essentially told to get on with it, then the question will be asked as to why they weren’t simply allowed to do that all along and all the resources (and money) weren’t simply piled into shielding the vulnerable.

It’s an impossible situation to reconcile, especially with all the lasting ongoing economic impacts which will also be largely borne by younger people.

I agree with the poster upthread that they will fudge this by using better weather as a cover, and meanwhile continue vaccinating.

The bigger problem continues to be all this talk of variants and strains. Ultimately most younger people (no doubt there will continue to be some mask obsessive types) will probably relish their freedom, albeit with an incredibly bitter taste left in the mouth. But talk of strains and variants is going to keep the “terrified” (or, more accurately “too terrified to go to work, not too terrified to go to Durdle Door, not too terrified to Eat Out to Help Out”) theme going for some.

 

[Domh245]

I wonder what the under 50s would prefer though. I am speaking as a "boomer" who should be vaccinated by May.

Would the under 50s prefer to have the economy opened up, so that they can enjoy the freedom of being able to go out and about, recover their mental health if it has been damaged, get a new job if they have lost one, or retain their job if it has been under threat due to the lockdown.

Or would they prefer to be locked down until the end of August with all the consequences for the economy and mental health.

Would anyone here who is under 50 care to comment?

I think only the most deluded would prefer to stay locked down. The problem is that we were 'wronged' back in about April last year when it became abundantly clear that covid posed no significant risk to us whatsoever. Nothing can reverse that wronging, and keeping us locked down longer than is absolutely necessary just makes it worse. Obviously don't stop the vaccinations as soon as they've done the 50 year olds (and for gods sake pass a law making it illegal to require any sort of vaccine passporting for anything within the UK)

 

[6862]

Apparently Sage are now saying that lifting all restrictions by September will lead to "significant further disease". Given that the government are in Sage's pocket, this pretty much means restrictions are going to last beyond September, and then we'll be back into winter respiratory virus territory, so expect them to last through the winter of 2021-22. We won't be done with all this nonsense even by the second anniversary of the 1st lockdown.

Fully relaxing coronavirus restrictions by September, when the new school year begins, would see "significant further disease", even with a fast vaccine rollout and high uptake of jabs, scientists advising the UK government have warned.

In an undated document published by Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) on Friday, the experts said a combination of factors, such as more transmissible coronavirus variants, vaccine hesitancy and jabs not working so well in some people could still lead to people getting ill with Covid-19.

However, with restrictions similar to those in place in late summer last year, a return to normal schooling by then should be "quite achievable", they said.

 

[Class 33]

Try not to take much notice of those silly headlines by SAGE saying restrictions can't be eased till the end of the year, next year or whatever. SAGE are a bloody nuisance. I've just read one headline(but not clicked in to read it) that says "LOCKED IN - Restrictions can't ease until NEXT YEAR due to aggressive strains, warns SAGE". Next they'll be saying "Restrictions can absolutely NEVER be lifted, warns SAGE". The government hasn't got to do what SAGE says. With the way things are going now with all these millions of vaccinations and falling stats week on week on week, the government will just not be able to justify keeping any longer than mid summer at the very latest. Some on this forum even saying all restrictions could be gone by the end of MAY.

 

[bramling]

Try not to take much notice of those silly headlines by SAGE saying restrictions can't be eased till the end of the year, next year or whatever. SAGE are a bloody nuisance. I've just read one headline(but not clicked in to read it) that says "LOCKED IN - Restrictions can't ease until NEXT YEAR due to aggressive strains, warns SAGE". Next they'll be saying "Restrictions can absolutely NEVER be lifted, warns SAGE". The government hasn't got to do what SAGE says. With the way things are going now with all these millions of vaccinations and falling stats week on week on week, the government will just not be able to justify keeping any longer than mid summer at the very latest. Some on this forum even saying all restrictions could be gone by the end of MAY.

The trouble is the government is terrified of “High death toll blamed on ignoring SAGE advice” or “Lots of lives would have been saved if only Boris had listened to SAGE” headlines.

Essentially the egos of Boris and Matt are more important than our freedom, wellbeing, employment, savings, et cetera.