WatcherZero
Established Member
- Joined
- 25 Feb 2010
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Funny how Ed Milliband is now suddenly questioning HS2 route and value for money now the route goes through his Doncaster constituency.
In HS2 Ltd's phase one scenario, the total number of West Coast corridor trains appears to be about eight more, when HS2 is factored in.The total number of trains are only two less (by my counting) which isn't that much difference (only about 10%)
however, if the trains are 8 coach (20m coaches) trains that run at 110mph that is less wear and tear than 11 coach (25/23m coaches) trains that truly and run at 125mph.
If 5 services (those that don't stop early on their journey, I.e. those where there first stop is North of Rugby) then that is 15 coaches less every hour, over a week that's about 1,200 less coaches and over a year that's about 62,000. That equates to 250,000 wheel movement on the tracks every year.
But is there actually a published intention to replace 11 coach 125mph trains with 8 car 110mph ones? I don't recall seeing such a proposal.
You need to compare total wear and tear on the existing line, with the total wear and tear on HS2-plus-the-existing-line. Without a shadow of a doubt, building HS2 would increase total intercity train costs, and total infrastructure management costs.
That doesn't sound too convincing. By adopting a lower design speed allowing tighter curves, you have more flexibility in the choice of route, so you're likely to be able to reduce the need for tunnels, viaducts, bridges, high embankments, deep cuttings, geologically difficult areas, the demolition of expensive property, and destruction of natural or heritage assets.
Then perhaps you should win those arguments rather than screaming "SPEEEEEEEEEEED"?![]()
It's something I worked up based on the minimum required to retain something like the required connectivity.I don't know where that diagram comes from. It doesn't look like anything produced by Network Rail, the Department for Transport, HS2 Ltd, or Centro. According to Patrick McLoughlin, West Coast service would be 'broadly comparable' to the existing provision. Centro stated they wanted three Coventry intercity trains per hour, but would settle for two.
Because everyone who doesn't live in Bickhenhill lives in the ticket hall at Coventry station?HS2 would not have a station at Coventry, or the Airport. The parkway station at Bickenhill would be over a mile from the airport, and according to the Independent Transport Commission, possibly connected by travelator. What is Bickenhill's forecast share of the Coventry - London market?
It's clear to me that with the fastest expresses replaced by HS2 it is likely the remaining longer distance services on the WCML will take on a different character, picking up more intermediate calls and perhaps with less sustained high speed running thus no longer justifying tilting 125MPH rolling stock, some of which might in turn be more usefully employed elsewhere. If the current WCML service pattern remains unchanged after HS2 then the fundemental capacity benefits will not be achieved, that is providing many more and more evenly spaced calls at Watford Jn, Milton Keynes, Rugby etc, linking these key towns far more effectively to each other and to both London and a number of Midlands and Northern towns and cities in a way than is impossible today, where intermediate stops have to severely 'rationed' in order to make way for the fastest Pendolinos from the key Northern cities. The capacity benefit of HS2 is not additional paths on the WCML fast lines, but opportunities to modify stopping patterns to better serve these important and growing intermediate towns. To a lesser extent similar restructuring of calling patterns may be possible on the MML and ECML, once their fastest trains are removed.
Because everyone who doesn't live in Bickhenhill lives in the ticket hall at Coventry station?
So, HS2 which provides many times the seating capacity of the existing WCML - it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure that with passengers moving to HS2, the requirement for long distance high services will reduce significantly. It's been quoted in documents for connectivity in the nor of England that HS2 will release Class 390s from the WCML for use, for example on the Sheffield-Manchester express services - which suggests some degree of loss of 125mph trains from WCML to various routes - East-West (EMT & TPE) and CrossCountry seem possible contenders.
It's been quoted in documents for connectivity in the nor of England that HS2 will release Class 390s from the WCML for use, for example on the Sheffield-Manchester express services - which suggests some degree of loss of 125mph trains from WCML to various routes - East-West (EMT & TPE) and CrossCountry seem possible contenders.
New track on HS2 gives an excellent opportunity to provide low maintenance solutions for track bed, sleeper, rail, comms, signals, overhead cable systems etc that on the classic network are shoehorned into Victorian era structures, embankments and cuttings... Wear and tear will be managed under BIM systems, which are practically impossible to deploy on existing networks, Reduced strain on the classic network will also reduce costs, it's a win win situation, were costs will reduce ultimately.
According to Network Rail, HS2 "frees up space for faster, more frequent" trains on the West Coast Main Line.
Inserting extra stops is not compatible with running faster trains.
One of the biggest groups to benefit would be commuters travelling between Northampton, Milton Keynes, Watford Junction and London, where the worst overcrowding is forecast in the coming years. Initial analysis suggests as many as twelve trains per hour could operate on this section of the route in the busiest peak hours.
Other key beneficiaries would be passengers travelling between the major towns and cities of the West Midlands and between London and destinations in the Trent Valley. There are also likely to be opportunities to improve connectivity between the south end of the route and towns and cities further the north as well as more room for goods to be moved by rail freight.
Ahem ...
Ok, so your trolling us ?
New member posting in nothing but HS2 threads contradicting known information and making bold claims that its not offering any benefits...
You, or Network Rail, need to explain how inserting extra stops makes for faster trains, with reference to HS2 Ltd's "Released Capacity".
Inserting extra stops is not compatible with running faster trains.
Obviously, many of the claims made for HS2 are contradictory, ill-founded, and implausible.
Which parts of the city of Coventry have better transport access to Bickenhill, than to the city centre?
Most WCML destinations are irrelevant.Clearly, HS2 would not provide "many times the seating capacity" of the existing WCML to most WCML destinations. That's because HS2 would not serve most WCML destinations.
In HS2 Ltd's phase one scenario, the total number of West Coast corridor trains appears to be about eight more, when HS2 is factored in.
It's reasonable to assume that an 8 coach 110mph train would make for less wear and tear than a 11 coach 125mph one. It's also reasonable to assume that an 11 or 12 coach 125mph train would make for less wear and tear, than a 16 coach 250mph one.
But is there actually a published intention to replace 11 coach 125mph trains with 8 car 110mph ones? I don't recall seeing such a proposal.
You need to compare total wear and tear on the existing line, with the total wear and tear on HS2-plus-the-existing-line. Without a shadow of a doubt, building HS2 would increase total intercity train costs, and total infrastructure management costs.
The point I was making was to do with wear and tear on the existing WCML, and that maintenance on the existing track would need to be less frequent.
The thing with HS2 is that that level of wear and tear is spread over 6 tracks rather than 4, with the ability to close lines whilst still providing some level of service without the need to bus everyone.
There are no firm proposals for after HS2 is built, however it is fair to say that with the older 390's getting to being over 25 at the opening of phase 1 and approaching 35 by the opening of phase 2, it is not unreasonable to assume that they will be up for replacement with our without HS2 at a similar time.
Yes the newer sets would only be about 20 years old by the opening of phase 2, but there being only 4 of them, they could end up at an open access operator.
Total wear and tear will be more, as there are more lines. However, there will be significantly more capacity for all passengers (both on the WCML where there will be less long distances passengers freeing up seats for others to use and HS2 where there will be 400m long trains). Therefore there will be more passengers to cover those extra costs.
The question should be "given the extra costs associated with running an extra set of lines (in the form of HS2) will there be enough extra income to cover those costs?"
If the answer is no, then we need wait until such time as there is. However, the general industry consensus is that the answer is, yes there is and by removing some services from the WCML we can make that last longer before needing to do works. As well as making it easier to undertake works when they do need doing (easier generally = cheaper).
One interesting thing I have heard from Industry contacts is that the legacy West Coast main line services long term might have potential to run as 125mph but non tilt.
Although currently the EPS numbers are only for 390s apparently in many sections of the WCML it would be possible to have higher 110-125mph speeds for non tilting stock albeit slower in some places than the 390s can achieve.
Given the services likely to be running on the WCML post HS2 this might be a sensible compromise between slower 110mph running and expensive complicated replacement of Pendolinos and maintenance of tilt balises etc.
Yes, there are sections of the northern WCML where the alignment is good and higher speeds for non-tilting trains would be relatively straightforward. Most of Preston to Lancaster, Carlisle to the border and Lockerbie to Beattock spring to mind.
You still assume it will be captive and classic compatible, that still isn't decided. Like I have mentioned before, if the costs between gauge clearing classic and captive vs the cost of the two types of train is negligible you would go for one traction type.
One fleet of a common design makes a lot of sense I agree, especially at the beginning when there could be major economies of scale for a custom design rather than a 'bog standard off the peg' European model, but surely that one fleet would more likely be a 'classic compatible', built so as to be as compatible with existing routes as possible in order to both minimise the gauge clearance costs and to be able to share track away from the new line with other rolling stock. The latter consideration is particularly important at stations, where if platforms to be used by HS2 trains were converted to GC clearances, any other traffic using them would require extending step boards. Clearly entirely separate platforms for HS could be considered for all stations served, but space for these may not be available and it would be difficult to justify such expensive dedicated facilities for comparatively few trains at the fairly large number of stops at the extremities of the HS network. In any case all intermediate platforms passed but not called at en route on the classic routes served would also need GC clearance platforms and thus local fleet replacement or modification too. I suppose that's one way of getting rid of pacers in the north!
I always thought that it would be the other way around, that the HS2 trains that went on the existing network would have steps that extended out at HS2 stations but didn't (or at least not as much) at classic stations.
Or building a bigger single set of classic compatibles by doing work on the classic network as a halfway house.
It's all done with fairy dust
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Ok, so what's your end game here ? What are you seeking to achieve ? Are you someone effected by the route, why aren't you posting in non HS2 threads ?
Voglitz is another screen name for Beleben, who runs a virulently anti-HS2 blog. Somehow Paul Bigland (the photographer who's also on this forum) actually knows who he is in real life.
Faster, more frequent, trains to some stations but not all.
According to Google Maps - the Ricoh Arena is 20 minutes from Birmingham Airport/International and 14 minutes from Coventry Station by car. 1hr02 or so from Coventry and 40-odd minutes from Birmingham Airport/International. So the Airport/International complex wins.
Binley Woods is 16 minutes from Coventry Station by car - however it is only 26 minutes from the Airport/International complex - so the Airport complex wins.
Essentially it appears anyone close to the A45, M6 or M69 and a lot of people on the North side of Coventry will be closer in travel time terms to London via the HS2 station than the WCML station.
Indeed even if you were parked right outside Coventry station it would be a dead heat as to whether you would arrive in London first - so it appears anyone who has to drive to Coventry station would be better off, or at least no worse off, at the Airport station.
Most WCML destinations are irrelevant.
You want them to list detailed features of a timetable 15 years in advance?That would imply not-faster, not-more-frequent trains, to other stations. But Network Rail don't seem to be willing or able to list which places would be in each category.
Presumably, and I must admit I am not entirely sure here, it would take something like 80 seconds at most more, since there would certainly be a car park at the HS2 station.No HS2 trains would stop at the airport. Some would stop at a parkway in Bickenhill, about 1 mile from Birmingham International.
How do you figure that?Binley Woods to Birmingham International is '19 miles, 26 minutes' via the M6, according to the AA. Binley Woods to Rugby station is '8.9 miles, 20 minutes'. So for London-bound commuting from that village, HS2 would mean driving 19-odd miles in the wrong direction, and more train mileage, for no travel time gain.
But that is a dead heat if you check the timetableCoventry council's rail consultants gave a Coventry to London HS2 journey time of 66 minutes, which would obviously not be a dead heat.
Really? Do you have figures for that?What is irrelevant for you, and what is irrelevant for a serious business case, might not be the same thing.
Most long distance journeys are not between HS2 station cities.
You want them to list detailed features of a timetable 15 years in advance?
Presumably, and I must admit I am not entirely sure here, it would take something like 80 seconds at most more, since there would certainly be a car park at the HS2 station.
And it seems likely there would be a link road anyway.
How do you figure that?
26 minutes to the Birmingham International/Airport Complex and then something like 42 to London, so 68 minutes.
20 minutes to Coventry station and then 67 minutes into London sp 87 minutes.
Doesn't look like no journey time gain to me.
You can save 15-20 minutes by driving to Birmingham International/Airport and taking HS2.
But that is a dead heat if you check the timetable
Really? Do you have figures for that?
The HS2 parkway station and its approach roads haven't been designed, so there is no way of calculating accurate transit times.