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HS2 Rolling Stock Procurement

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Bornin1980s

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Is the current Hitachi proposal intended as captive or classic compatible?

I assumed it was captive because of its squarish profile.
 
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Roast Veg

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I make the competition list for classic compatible as follows:
  • Alstom AGV
  • Bombardier Zefiro (no press release)
  • CAF Oaris (no press release)
  • CRRC CR4 (no press release)
  • Hitachi AT400
  • Siemens Velaro (no press release)
  • Talgo AVRIL
 

Bletchleyite

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Is the current Hitachi proposal intended as captive or classic compatible?

I assumed it was captive because of its squarish profile.

It doesn't look UIC gauge, it looks more UK gauge, so I would say classic compatible. There aren't going to be any captive trains in the first phase anyway, I believe.

24m vehicles (same as the Pendolino) is another clue. For UIC gauge you'd go 26.4m, or potentially even longer.
 

LNW-GW Joint

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I make the competition list for classic compatible as follows:
  • Alstom AGV
  • Bombardier Zefiro (no press release)
  • CAF Oaris (no press release)
  • CRRC CR4 (no press release)
  • Hitachi AT400
  • Siemens Velaro (no press release)
  • Talgo AVRIL

The Hitachi AT400 publicity majors on the links with the ETR1000 for Trenitalia (and built in Italy). http://www.railwaygazette.com/news/...veils-at400-british-bullet-train-concept.html
This is a blend of Bombardier Zefiro and Ansaldo V250 technology.
Hitachi said this 'vision' builds on the company's 'rich history in creating iconic high speed rolling stock' ranging from Shinkansen trainsets in Japan to the ETR1000 units for Trenitalia, the last of which has just been dispatched from the manufacturer’s Pistoia plant. This has been blended with UK engineering 'to turn this initial concept into a formalised model'. Hitachi said this combination of experience and innovation would meet the objectives set out for the procurement of rolling stock for High Speed 2
I think we may see some consortia emerging, reducing the list of bidders somewhat.
Also, isn't it odd that HS2 Ltd is doing the procurement?
You'd expect the operator to have an important say in what the service needs, especially classic-compatible stock.
They (and the ROSCOs) are the ones with the best operational experience of trains designed to run on the northern WCML.
The procurement has a whiff of IEP about it.
 

WatcherZero

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People are forgetting, the captive stock is supposed to be 200m to allow for doubling up, the classic compatibles were originally specified as 260m as they would be replacing Pendolino on some services.
 

MarkyT

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10 25m carriages.... in otherwords totally useless as a HS2 set?

Too long to run double and far too short to do the job alone, especially considering its a single deck.

Why? 8x25m is 200m doubled up is 400m, they won't go for longer.

If the minimum set length is 10 cars as implied by WatcherZero then it's too long (though it might be useful during phase 1, running singly to maximise the capacity at existing stations by being similar to an 11-car Pendolino). If they can do an 8-car variant then they need to say so!

Seems unlikely a shorter set is not possible technically as per the AT300 series derivatives and some Shinkansen designs built in various lengths, which all have the characteristic Japanese configuration of all or most intermediate vehicles powered and head and tail driving trailers always unpowered. For example, the Japanese E6 series is a smaller profile mini-shinkansen unit of 7 cars at 148.65 m. These, the Japanese 'classic compatibles' operate at comparatively low speed on a small number of standard gauge Shinkansen branches that were converted from older former narrow gauge lines and thus have slightly smaller tunnel, bridge and platfrom clearances. The diminutive units then routinely couple up to a full size profile E5 series unit at a junction stop en route for a 360kph sprint to Tokyo along the JR East trunk Shinkansen line. The E5, at 253 m, joins the E6 to form a maximum train length of just over 400m, so making optimum use of the trunk line capacity while still offering through service to a wider range of towns and cities. Both 'full-size' and 'mini' units are capable of the full line speed.

Edit: seems I was slightly wrong. The E6s, unlike E5s, have their outer driving cars motored and the first intermediate car in from each end unpowered. The three centre cars of the seven car unit are also motored. The principle still applies that the distributed drive concept with most vehicles motored should allow more flexibility in length with comparable power to weight ratio for consistent performance.
 
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Nymanic

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Classics will be 200 too.

Unsurprising, but I worry that the northern reaches of the WCML could see a net loss of capacity, or that more services would be introduced at the detriment of stoppers, as has been the case following Virgin's 'VHF' timetable.

An alternative would be a mix of 250m and 150m stock (10-car and 6-car respectively, assuming 25m carriage lengths). This would allow for full 400m formations on the southern reaches, with a smaller portion split off further north for another destination (Liverpool and North Wales, for example). HS trains this short do exist, albeit not at HS2 speeds, and I'd be somewhat astonished if portion working isn't envisaged.

Could these mixed lengths work? Obviously they're not without issues - production costs go up due to the lack of uniformity, pathing is trickier, Liverpool could never be served with six-car trains alone (even if half-hourly), and even with a constant hourly frequency, North Wales services would be a squeeze.

Edit: MarkyT has covered the same principle even quicker!
 
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Roast Veg

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I make the competition list for classic compatible as follows:
  • Alstom AGV
  • Bombardier Zefiro (no press release)
  • CAF Oaris (no press release)
  • CRRC CR4 (no press release)
  • Hitachi AT400
  • Siemens Velaro (no press release)
  • Talgo AVRIL

Images for the above, as concept art:
  • AGV - from an article dated March 2017
  • AVRIL - from Talgo's twitter in April
  • AT400 - from Hitachi's website
 

absolutelymilk

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If hypothetically the infrastructure was delayed for a couple of years but the trains were on time, could the trains be used to boost stock on other lines? Where could they be useful?
 

NotATrainspott

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Also, isn't it odd that HS2 Ltd is doing the procurement?
You'd expect the operator to have an important say in what the service needs, especially classic-compatible stock.
They (and the ROSCOs) are the ones with the best operational experience of trains designed to run on the northern WCML.
The procurement has a whiff of IEP about it.

I think it's so that the longest possible amount of time is available for the trains to be developed, built and entered into service. Also, the HS2 infrastructure and business case was designed around the trains that will run on it, so even if the West Coast Partnership operator were responsible for the order they wouldn't have an enormous amount of say anyway.

If hypothetically the infrastructure was delayed for a couple of years but the trains were on time, could the trains be used to boost stock on other lines? Where could they be useful?

An interesting possibility raised by the WCP model is that some of the class-compatible sets could indeed end up being used for classic services. It could be like the use of the 345s on TfL Rail services before the opening of the Crossrail tunnel. At one point, electric IEP sets were going to be used for some WCML services before the additional Pendolino vehicles were ordered. The Scotland-Birmingham-London runs might be an ideal test bed, as they don't require tilt as much as other routes.
 

absolutelymilk

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An interesting possibility raised by the WCP model is that some of the class-compatible sets could indeed end up being used for classic services. It could be like the use of the 345s on TfL Rail services before the opening of the Crossrail tunnel. At one point, electric IEP sets were going to be used for some WCML services before the additional Pendolino vehicles were ordered. The Scotland-Birmingham-London runs might be an ideal test bed, as they don't require tilt as much as other routes.

That sounds like an excellent idea, iron out any problems with the stock first rather than introducing new stock and infrastructure at the same time!
 

HSTEd

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People are forgetting, the captive stock is supposed to be 200m to allow for doubling up, the classic compatibles were originally specified as 260m as they would be replacing Pendolino on some services.

What kind of service design is that?
A 260m train uses a full path, a 200m train uses a half path.

Seems an awfully big loss of capacity even given the trains slightly longer length
 

HSTEd

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An alternative would be a mix of 250m and 150m stock (10-car and 6-car respectively, assuming 25m carriage lengths). This would allow for full 400m formations on the southern reaches, with a smaller portion split off further north for another destination (Liverpool and North Wales, for example). HS trains this short do exist, albeit not at HS2 speeds, and I'd be somewhat astonished if portion working isn't envisaged.
AGV is rated for lengths down to ~133m and thus this is not an issue.
Talgo also make a 4-car platform capable of HS2 speeds at roughly 100m, I believe.
 

The Planner

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An interesting possibility raised by the WCP model is that some of the class-compatible sets could indeed end up being used for classic services. It could be like the use of the 345s on TfL Rail services before the opening of the Crossrail tunnel. At one point, electric IEP sets were going to be used for some WCML services before the additional Pendolino vehicles were ordered. The Scotland-Birmingham-London runs might be an ideal test bed, as they don't require tilt as much as other routes.

Someone would also have to pay for the infrastructure to be cleared into Euston south of Lichfield and all through the West Mids, not convinced HS2 would cough up for that. Not sure where the massive difference in non tilt is either.
 

NotATrainspott

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Someone would also have to pay for the infrastructure to be cleared into Euston south of Lichfield and all through the West Mids, not convinced HS2 would cough up for that. Not sure where the massive difference in non tilt is either.

They would indeed, but I don't think there would need to be any physical works done. The WCML is already cleared for Pendolinos and container freight and the classic-compatible sets wouldn't have any reason to be significantly larger.

I wonder if the line between Lichfield and the depot at Washwood Heath will be ready for trains any earlier than the rest of the line. Then they can do testing of the transition from the new HS2 infrastructure, including signalling, onto the WCML.
 

WatcherZero

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Required technical specs for HS2 rolling stock seem to have been published April 28th. They do indeed state that the original TSI of 260m classic compatible stock (that maximised existing classic platform lengths) has been jettisoned in favour of assuming that the classic compatibles would be regularly operating in multiple and splitting/joining to service different destinations.

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploa...ock_-_Pre-Qualification_Technical_Summary.pdf
 

Spod

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This bit surprised/impressed me:
The Unit shall be capable of Normal Operation when:
 Snow is up to 200mm above the rail level
 Flood water is up to 50mm below top of rail level

Normal operation as in, it can still accelerate within spec up to 360 km/h in snow that's 8 inches deeper than the railhead? Is that normal, for high speed rolling stock?
 

GCR

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This bit surprised/impressed me:
Normal operation as in, it can still accelerate within spec up to 360 km/h in snow that's 8 inches deeper than the railhead? Is that normal, for high speed rolling stock?
There is nothing normal about HS2 speeds. It seems ridiculous to go so fast when it costs so much more and the actual time saving door-to-door is quite modest. If it is all about capacity then the maximum throughput in terms of trains per hour is achieved at speeds around 200kph. Above 250kph noise becomes very significant so noise mitigation measures are onerous and tunnels require expensive porous portals. NTV in Italy declined to take up an option for more AGVs and ordered 250kph Pendolinos instead. The Germans have also ordered ICE4 trains with a max speed of 230 or 250kph. I can foresee HS2 trains running at speeds well under 300kph. It's only 175km from London to Birmingham and even diesel trains could do the 160km from London to Leicester in an hour.
 

edwin_m

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If HS2 ran more slowly it would probably be capacity-limited by the amount of space available at Euston, especially as turnaround time in the platform tends to be based on a proportion of journey time so trains that have spent longer en route will need more turnaround time and more platforms.

If a new railway is being built anyway the extra cost of building it for 400km/h is pretty small. It is already limited to lower speeds in places where 400km/h wouldn't be possible without major demolition or longer tunnels.

The time saving London to Birmingham isn't that significant but it becomes more important for journeys further north, especially London to Glasgow/Edinburgh. To maximise capacity all trains on the busiest section south of Birmingham have to run at the same speed.

All in all it seems a sensible bit of future-proofing to build for a high speed. We really don't know what impact driverless cars might have on future intercity rail travel but one of the few things that is fairly certain is that high speed rail will still have a journey time advantage, even for many journeys where a connecting leg is needed at one or both ends.
 

GCR

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If HS2 ran more slowly it would probably be capacity-limited by the amount of space available at Euston, especially as turnaround time in the platform tends to be based on a proportion of journey time so trains that have spent longer en route will need more turnaround time and more platforms.
HS2 has signed up to an average delay per train of less than 30 seconds so trains will have to run reliably and turnaround times would not be affected.
If a new railway is being built anyway the extra cost of building it for 400km/h is pretty small.
HS2 Ltd have claimed that it costs 15% more for 360kph compared to 300 and yet only 9% more for 400 compared to 200. The former may have a smatter of credibility but the latter has none whatsoever. Look at the designs and you will see how expensive it looks and then add in more robust track and uprated OHLE & power systems. I defy anyone to show it costs less than 50% more to construct and operate a line for 400kph compared to 200. Don't forget 400kph is only possible with further expense on a new fleet of even more expensive trains.
It is already limited to lower speeds in places where 400km/h wouldn't be possible without major demolition or longer tunnels. The time saving London to Birmingham isn't that significant but it becomes more important for journeys further north, especially London to Glasgow/Edinburgh.
Longer tunnels don't help as even HS2 accept it it is too expensive to build them for 400kph. The longest stretch of 400kph between L&B is 47km; the second longest is 17km, which is not long enough to reach 400kph. A 400kph train would not save more than one minute between L&B and possibly another minute to Preston or York. No one is going to fund a very high speed railway to Scotland.
...one of the few things that is fairly certain is that high speed rail will still have a journey time advantage, even for many journeys where a connecting leg is needed at one or both ends.
It doesn't need speeds above 250kph to have a major advantage. It would be far better to improve the connecting legs as this would benefit the majority, not a very small minority. Trains should also stop in more places as the demand for long-distance journeys is too low to justify high frequencies.
 

edwin_m

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HS2 Ltd have claimed that it costs 15% more for 360kph compared to 300 and yet only 9% more for 400 compared to 200.

Source?

Look at the designs and you will see how expensive it looks and then add in more robust track and uprated OHLE & power systems. I defy anyone to show it costs less than 50% more to construct and operate a line for 400kph compared to 200.

A large part of the expense is civils and earthworks, which change very little with speed except that the earthworks (probably around 20m wide on average) get a metre or two wider for a greater track spacing. There is also an extra cost in hilly areas if a straighter route is needed for higher speeds, but this doesn't really apply to the territory HS2 phases 1 or 2 pass through. The northern part of the phase 2 Leeds leg would be hilly around Barnsley if the proposed eastern alternative isn't used, but this was speed-restricted.

I defy anyone to show it costs less than 50% more to construct and operate a line for 400kph compared to 200.

As you're making the assertion, it's down to you to produce the evidence.

Don't forget 400kph is only possible with further expense on a new fleet of even more expensive trains. Longer tunnels don't help as even HS2 accept it it is too expensive to build them for 400kph.

400kph is not being specified for the initial train fleet. It is specified for the design of the infrastructure where there is no significant cost saving in using a lower speed. So it's a bit of very long term future proofing, not quite on the timescale of Brunel building a railway suitable for 125mph but not far off.

A 400kph train would not save more than one minute between L&B and possibly another minute to Preston or York.

Source? Japanese-style trains with all-motored axles have significantly better acceleration than the sorts of train being specified for the initial fleet. Who's to say something like that may not be wanted in the multi-century life of the infrastructure?

No one is going to fund a very high speed railway to Scotland.

It's in the Labour manifesto - I agree that's far from a guarantee it's going to happen but given we're talking a multi-century investment who's to rule it out in that sort of timescale? In any case, high speed running further south benefits trains to Scotland whether they run through on high speed infrastructure or on conventional lines.

Trains should also stop in more places as the demand for long-distance journeys is too low to justify high frequencies.

London to Birmingham and Manchester currently have a 240m Pendolino every 20min and make only one or two intermediate stops each (discounting Stockport and Birmingham International as they would have roughly equivalent HS2 stops). The proposed HS2 timetable offers the same frequency but the trains can be 400m long when on HS infrastructure throughout. I think an approximate doubling in end-to-end demand is an entirely reasonable expectation over a timeframe of decades. As to stopping in more places, the trains on the existing lines (which have the major advantage of passing through those places!) will make more stops once they no longer have to cater for the main city-to-city demand that drives the need for fewer stops today.
 
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NotATrainspott

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There is nothing normal about HS2 speeds. It seems ridiculous to go so fast when it costs so much more and the actual time saving door-to-door is quite modest. If it is all about capacity then the maximum throughput in terms of trains per hour is achieved at speeds around 200kph. Above 250kph noise becomes very significant so noise mitigation measures are onerous and tunnels require expensive porous portals. NTV in Italy declined to take up an option for more AGVs and ordered 250kph Pendolinos instead. The Germans have also ordered ICE4 trains with a max speed of 230 or 250kph. I can foresee HS2 trains running at speeds well under 300kph. It's only 175km from London to Birmingham and even diesel trains could do the 160km from London to Leicester in an hour.

Not all high speed services in different countries are entirely comparable. The HS2 model is much more like the Shinkansen than the European systems, as it tries to create a separate rail network designed specifically for the role it'll be performing. Unlike Japan we're not using a different track gauge so through running onto the existing network is easy to implement.

On the continent there are a much wider variety of lines and possible linespeeds. The Italians started building Diretissima back in the 1930s, when speeds of 250km/h were considered in the way that we see 400km/h today. Those lines are good enough today that there will never really be a justification to replace them, even though the line geometry does limit them to less than the current standard of speed for new lines. There's no point ordering lots more trains designed for new high speed lines and standards if they'll spend most of their time on lines which are fast but not quite fast enough.

Germany has the Neubaustrecke model of new general-purpose mainlines connecting up regions of the country. The newer ones tend to be designed for the most up-to-date speeds but some of the slightly older ones are limited to less than 250km/h. As you have been saying, high speeds are only worthwhile for long stretches of non-stop running, but in Germany there aren't many lines which really suit this model. Remember that Germany's network inevitably has to be much less efficient than ours (or Japan's) because their cities are arranged in a grid, rather than roughly linearly like ours (either side of the Pennines). Their ICE4 trains are designed to replace ICE1 and ICE2 sets that rarely, if ever, travel above 250km/h because they spend their time on lines which don't really go much faster.

The closest equivalent to the Pendolino and ICE4 in the UK is the IEP, which will run on our own quasi-HSR lines of the GWML and the ECML. The IEP is not at all in conflict with the idea of HS2.

HS2 is timetabled to run at 330km/h, only 10km/h faster than the state-of-the-art services on the most modern HSR lines. 360km/h capability is required but will only be used to make up time if there are delays. While the extra 30km/h won't make an enormous difference to end-to-end journey times, it may be the difference between a single-train delay and a multi-train timetable clash.
 

GCR

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Source?

A large part of the expense is civils and earthworks, which change very little with speed .... As you're making the assertion, it's down to you to produce the evidence. ... So it's a bit of very long term future proofing....

Japanese-style trains with all-motored axles have significantly better acceleration...

It's in the Labour manifesto.....
The 9% figure is often trotted out by HS2. First appearance seems to be in the 2010 Cost & Risk Model which was then put in the 2011 Economic Appraisal. It has not been revisited. 15% figure came much later, possibly first appeared in evidence to House of Lords. The extra width for the tracks is almost irrelevant. You underestimate the impact of 9km radius curves for 400kph compared to 1.8km for 200kph. Many parts of HS2 route are quite undulating necessitating steep gradients with deep cuttings and high embankments. Then add in longer & larger tunnels, power systems and noise mitigation. I can't produce an estimate because the data needed has not been published but its pretty obvious it's much closer to 50% than 9% which may explain why it has not been revisited. Why 'future proof' it if it only saves a couple of minutes and has very many severe disadvantages including cost and lower capacity? There are so many cheaper and less destructive ways to save time. Having all-motored axles does not help acceleration other than at low speeds as it depends on the power which can be provided by the OLE/motors. This will not be adequate to climb gradients steeper than 1% at 360kph and there are many that are over 2%. It's a pity that the Labour Party have not got the brains to realise that there are far better ways of spending upwards of £60 billion...but they are not alone. They can at least blame the unions.
 

GCR

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The Italians started building Diretissima back in the 1930s, when speeds of 250km/h were considered in the way that we see 400km/h today. ...there will never really be a justification to replace them.

high speeds are only worthwhile for long stretches of non-stop running, but in Germany there aren't many lines which really suit this model. Remember that Germany's network inevitably has to be much less efficient than ours (or Japan's) because their cities are arranged in a grid, rather than roughly linearly like ours (either side of the Pennines).

While the extra 30km/h won't make an enormous difference to end-to-end journey times, it may be the difference between a single-train delay and a multi-train timetable clash.
There is a huge benefit in going from 100kph, as is common on many parts of our network, to 200-250kph, which was not that difficult in the 1930s. The law of diminishing returns applies. Higher speeds deliver far less, but cost far more. The optimum is unlikely to be above 250kph if the economic assessment was not rigged. Roughly linear is not linear e.g. Derby-Nottingham, Wolverhampton, Coventry, Liverpool, Bradford, Southampton, Bristol; which is why HS2 is a dog's breakfast. Our network should be a grid like Germany but we have chosen to have a radial one based on London to the detriment of everywhere else. The entire HS2 concept of running 18tph on a two-track spine at speeds up to 360kph relies on a timing precision which will almost certainly not be achievable with running on classic lines. There is no evidence to suggest that sufficient work has been done to confirm it is achievable.
 

edwin_m

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The 9% figure is often trotted out by HS2. First appearance seems to be in the 2010 Cost & Risk Model which was then put in the 2011 Economic Appraisal. It has not been revisited. 15% figure came much later, possibly first appeared in evidence to House of Lords. The extra width for the tracks is almost irrelevant. You underestimate the impact of 9km radius curves for 400kph compared to 1.8km for 200kph. Many parts of HS2 route are quite undulating necessitating steep gradients with deep cuttings and high embankments. Then add in longer & larger tunnels, power systems and noise mitigation. I can't produce an estimate because the data needed has not been published but its pretty obvious it's much closer to 50% than 9% which may explain why it has not been revisited. Why 'future proof' it if it only saves a couple of minutes and has very many severe disadvantages including cost and lower capacity? There are so many cheaper and less destructive ways to save time. Having all-motored axles does not help acceleration other than at low speeds as it depends on the power which can be provided by the OLE/motors. This will not be adequate to climb gradients steeper than 1% at 360kph and there are many that are over 2%. It's a pity that the Labour Party have not got the brains to realise that there are far better ways of spending upwards of £60 billion...but they are not alone. They can at least blame the unions.

Since you admit you can produce no evidence, yet remain firm in your beliefs, I for one won't be wasting any more of my time trying to explain things.
 

TheDavibob

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Our network should be a grid like Germany

City placement in Great Britain is nothing like city placement in Germany. Other than Bristol and Cardiff, the Y serves essentially all the big cities. Add in NPHR and Edinburgh-Glasgow, and pretty much everywhere is connected. Finishing off by adding Bristol-Birmingham and the job is pretty much complete.

You say radial into London - that's our current system (GWR, WCML, MML, ECML), not really HS2. HS2 is considerably more radial into Birmingham, which makes perfect sense.
 

NotATrainspott

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There is a huge benefit in going from 100kph, as is common on many parts of our network, to 200-250kph, which was not that difficult in the 1930s. The law of diminishing returns applies. Higher speeds deliver far less, but cost far more. The optimum is unlikely to be above 250kph if the economic assessment was not rigged. Roughly linear is not linear e.g. Derby-Nottingham, Wolverhampton, Coventry, Liverpool, Bradford, Southampton, Bristol; which is why HS2 is a dog's breakfast. Our network should be a grid like Germany but we have chosen to have a radial one based on London to the detriment of everywhere else. The entire HS2 concept of running 18tph on a two-track spine at speeds up to 360kph relies on a timing precision which will almost certainly not be achievable with running on classic lines. There is no evidence to suggest that sufficient work has been done to confirm it is achievable.

Let me guess, the solution is to build a network of lines running up the M1 from Brent Cross Interchange?
 
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