Is Crossrail going to be a complete victim of its success?

[NSEFAN]

How do you think Crossrail should have been implemented in the East side? Running with 9 car 23m vehicles at higher TPH on existing infrastructure is about as good as it gets without building more over ground lines, or more tunnelled routes, both resulting in significantly greater costs.

 

[HH]

What I am surprised at is how little extra capacity will be delivered on the Shenfield branch.

I presume that you mean in the Peak?

 

[Taunton]

I believe there will be a number of other pinch points as well. Canary Wharf only getting half the service will be one issue, wide intervals in the evening peak will surely cause westbound crowding there from early on. There is still no solution to the Heathrow Express question, which must lose most of its traffic to a much cheaper service which distributes passengers much better across London. If the current plan to terminate half the westbound service at Paddington is continued, there will be congestion there from those getting off to wait for the next train, while on the GWML fitting in freight services looks like a planning hope that is too heroic for accurate presentation of eastbound trains where they are merged at Paddington.

 

[rebmcr]

It's a fallacy to compare the existing carriages like-for-like with the new ones.

Even comparing train length still comes up short, because the seating layout, through gangways, and extra, better, wider doors are all going to further enhance the capacity.

The real fundamental metric will be pax/hour (or pax/path when combined with the extra tph). Does anyone know of any published data of the Class 317 and Class 345 capabilities with regards to this?

 

[ScotGG]

Is that 100% growth an explicit prediction, or did you surmise it from 27%pa?

If the latter, it's worth pointing out that the 27% quoted was after TfL took over the services and so was presumably a one-off. I don't think any rail line in London is going to see 27% growth every year! (Although I don't doubt that the arrival of Crossrail will also cause a surge in demand on the Shenfield line).

The DLR would be a useful guide to annual growth we could expect. It's at 8% on both branches south of the river (Woolwich Arsenal and Lewisham) and east London.

With Crossrail being new and shiny, plus it being barriered, 10% annual growth looks very likely.

Housing plans around its stations are vast. Stratford, Woolwich, Abbey Wood, Whitechapel, Canary Wharf (to name just a few) will all see huge growth in populations.

 

[Taunton]

I have always felt it was unfortunate that the Shenfield branch diverges at Whitechapel rather than one station to the east, at Canary Wharf. This would have given Canary Wharf access by three Crossrail directions, not two, would have given a very valuable direct link from there to a substantial residential hinterland between Stratford and Shenfield, and would double the capacity between there and Central London.

 

[bicbasher]

Another thing to note, will passengers from South London stay on the ELL to Whitechapel or continue to crowd Canada Water every peak for the short trip on the Jubilee to Canary Wharf?

Or will East Londoners on the ELL change at Whitechapel, giving a slightly better chance of getting on the first Eastbound Jubilee line train at Canada Water?

 

[Busaholic]

Another thing to note, will passengers from South London stay on the ELL to Whitechapel or continue to crowd Canada Water every peak for the short trip on the Jubilee to Canary Wharf?

To start with, probably the Canada Water option (a) because it's what we do! and (b) it's counter-intuitive to many, especially the majority non-enthusiast, to travel further in the first instance. As word gets round among the 'adventurous' who try the other option, and tell a good story about the experience, then patterns will change. Twas ever thus.

 

[Taunton]

The Crossrail and Jubilee stations at Canary Wharf are sufficiently far apart that the ultimate destination will probably be significant.

 

[Ianno87]

I have always felt it was unfortunate that the Shenfield branch diverges at Whitechapel rather than one station to the east, at Canary Wharf. This would have given Canary Wharf access by three Crossrail directions, not two, would have given a very valuable direct link from there to a substantial residential hinterland between Stratford and Shenfield, and would double the capacity between there and Central London.

I see your point, but it's hard to see how a sensible tunnelled alignment could be designed for that - I wouldn't have thought that it would be able to connect into the GEML anywhere before Ilford at the earliest (missing out Stratford etc in the process).

And then you'd need to find a suitable site for a tunnel portal - lots more tunnelling with potentially lots of disbenefits for existing GEML Electric Line passengers (i.e. a big diversion to reach Liverpool St via Canary Wharf with only a limited direct service retained). And Central Line Relief from Stratford might not be as high either (but over-releiving the Jubilee Line from Stratford, potentially)

Shenfield passengers heading to Canary Wharf do have the option of a fairly easy (presumably cross-platform) interchange at Whitechapel too.

 

[rebmcr]

over-releiving the Jubilee Line from Stratford

I think this is the most relevant issue with the concept.

 

[Taunton]

Shenfield passengers heading to Canary Wharf do have the option of a fairly easy (presumably cross-platform) interchange at Whitechapel too.

The issue with this is that those passengers will now be competing for space with those using Crossrail to Central London. I suspect that eastbound from Canary Wharf in the evening peak will be easy, whereas westbound will have those heading down the GEML and those for Central London on the same train at first.

In fact, if the service pattern can move on from an even split between the branches to a 3 in 5/2 in 5 type pattern, I think that eastbound in the evening the greater demand will be to go down the GE line, whereas westbound it will be from Abbey Wood/Canary Wharf into the centre.

Separately, do others feel that, compared to Thameslink who appear to have ordered very considerable quantities of rolling stock, Crossrail appear to have not ordered enough. What a shame that the two types are apparently completely incompatible.

 

[jhy44]

It'll be interesting to see how many people switch from the Dartford-Greenwich line at Abbey Wood & Woolwich. The morning rush hour trains from Greenwich & Lewisham are atrocious, people fall out of the train onto the platforms at Greenwich, poor people at Deptford have no chance. Hopefully, everyone from Woolwich and further East heading to Cannon Street will switch to Crossrail instead, meaning nice empty trains will roll into Greenwich. A lot of my neighbours in Deptford/Greenwich used to take the bus or DLR instead of the much faster train simply because there was no room on them, even standing.

Odd as I haven't heard anyone in the media talk about how Crossrail will improve the life of Lewisham & Greenwichers, but it is likely to cause the biggest capacity improvement the area has ever seen.

On a side note, I found the omission of a station at Limehouse between Whitechapel & CW an oddity, the tunnels pass very close to it, and it would give a useful connection to the Southend line, a big improvement on the inconvenience for any onwards journey that is Fenchurch Street at least anyway.

 

[Busaholic]

It'll be interesting to see how many people switch from the Dartford-Greenwich line at Abbey Wood & Woolwich. The morning rush hour trains from Greenwich & Lewisham are atrocious, people fall out of the train onto the platforms at Greenwich, poor people at Deptford have no chance. Hopefully, everyone from Woolwich and further East heading to Cannon Street will switch to Crossrail instead, meaning nice empty trains will roll into Greenwich. A lot of my neighbours in Deptford/Greenwich used to take the bus or DLR instead of the much faster train simply because there was no room on them, even standing.

Odd as I haven't heard anyone in the media talk about how Crossrail will improve the life of Lewisham & Greenwichers, but it is likely to cause the biggest capacity improvement the area has ever seen.

On a side note, I found the omission of a station at Limehouse between Whitechapel & CW an oddity, the tunnels pass very close to it, and it would give a useful connection to the Southend line, a big improvement on the inconvenience for any onwards journey that is Fenchurch Street at least anyway.

I don't quite follow you on the Lewisham capacity improvement, I have to say, unless you think Bexleyheathites etc are going to start using Abbey Wood as a railhead. In any case, there are still bitter tales told by some people who moved to Brockley and environs in recent years on the promise of the Overground links but who weren't told how the classic London Bridge service was going to suffer in its stead.

 

[Taunton]

I wonder why Crossrail was terminated at Abbey Wood, rather than taking over the line onward to Dartford with the Greenwich line trains being terminated there instead, the opposite of the Shenfield or Reading line arrangements. It may give some resilience to the Crossrail departures from there, but that is just a euphemism for causing the majority of Crossrail passengers at Abbey Wood to have to make a connection. As throughout Crossrail, despite the vast expenditure, they were unable to configure any cross-platform connection either. So there are going to be generations of onward passengers who, having gone along the long Crossrail platform, up the stairs, and across the tracks, will see what should have been a useful direct connection (had the grandfathers of the Crossrail designers who did the Victoria Line been involved) being dispatched just as they are running (and hopefully not falling) back down the stairs. Anyway, the Crossrail train can leave on time for Custom House, where it can do the same to DLR Beckton line connecting passengers coming down the stairs there as well.

I found the omission of a station at Limehouse between Whitechapel & CW an oddity

Almost, but not quite, as odd as having the new Crossrail line pass physically under the aircraft parking terminal area at what is now one of London's mainstream airports, London City Airport with no station provision at all, and not even any useful connection with the DLR line which does serve there.

In any case, there are still bitter tales told by some people who moved to Brockley and environs in recent years on the promise of the Overground links but who weren't told how the classic London Bridge service was going to suffer in its stead.

I think the way that SE London stations have been messed about long term by the Network Rail operators is very poor. On the Greenwich line we are discussing the favoured destination outside the peaks, and even to an extent in them, was always Charing Cross rather than Cannon Street, the latter actually having little off peak/weekend service (which reflected demand), yet just to suit a Thameslink project which offers no benefit to SE London the whole Greenwich line service has been diverted to Cannon Street, and for quite some years (and continuing) there is no prospect of even changing at London Bridge onto a Charing Cross service. These long term withdrawls of service really should have been required by the DfT to go through the closure process, for that is what they effectively are for major flows of traffic. Then there would have been an upset all round.

 

[ScotGG]

I think this is the most relevant issue with the concept.

If heading from Stratford though the Jubilee and DLR are direct to Canary Wharf. Crossrail requires going to Whitechapel then changing to an east bound train to Abbey Wood. So maybe the convenience factor will win out as the change at Whitechapel may be irritating.

 

[D365]

Separately, do others feel that, compared to Thameslink who appear to have ordered very considerable quantities of rolling stock, Crossrail appear to have not ordered enough. What a shame that the two types are apparently completely incompatible.

Bearing in mind that TfL were originally planning to order 57 ten-car units, I think that 66 345s is plenty to operate a 24tph service. Don't forget that they have options with Bombardier to order (I think) 17 further nine-car units - the 66th unit was an add-on itself for the Reading extension.
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As throughout Crossrail, despite the vast expenditure, they were unable to configure any cross-platform connection either.

It's been discussed before, that would throw up far too many headaches with electrification immunity and maintenance blockades.

 

[telstarbox]

I wonder why Crossrail was terminated at Abbey Wood, rather than taking over the line onward to Dartford with the Greenwich line trains being terminated there instead, the opposite of the Shenfield or Reading line arrangements. It may give some resilience to the Crossrail departures from there, but that is just a euphemism for causing the majority of Crossrail passengers at Abbey Wood to have to make a connection. As throughout Crossrail, despite the vast expenditure, they were unable to configure any cross-platform connection either. So there are going to be generations of onward passengers who, having gone along the long Crossrail platform, up the stairs, and across the tracks, will see what should have been a useful direct connection (had the grandfathers of the Crossrail designers who did the Victoria Line been involved) being dispatched just as they are running (and hopefully not falling) back down the stairs. Anyway, the Crossrail train can leave on time for Custom House, where it can do the same to DLR Beckton line connecting passengers coming down the stairs there as well.

Almost, but not quite, as odd as having the new Crossrail line pass physically under the aircraft parking terminal area at what is now one of London's mainstream airports, London City Airport with no station provision at all, and not even any useful connection with the DLR line which does serve there.

If you add loads of stations in you reduce the overall capacity of the route, without a significant increase in patronage as you then start to abstract passengers from the other stations.

 

[ScotGG]

The issue with this is that those passengers will now be competing for space with those using Crossrail to Central London. I suspect that eastbound from Canary Wharf in the evening peak will be easy, whereas westbound will have those heading down the GEML and those for Central London on the same train at first.

In fact, if the service pattern can move on from an even split between the branches to a 3 in 5/2 in 5 type pattern, I think that eastbound in the evening the greater demand will be to go down the GE line, whereas westbound it will be from Abbey Wood/Canary Wharf into the centre.

Separately, do others feel that, compared to Thameslink who appear to have ordered very considerable quantities of rolling stock, Crossrail appear to have not ordered enough. What a shame that the two types are apparently completely incompatible.

Westbound from Canary Wharf likely will be busier in the evening (though I think if heading Stratford the DLR and Jubilee are less hassle and located closer to existing office blocks) but maybe not for too long. Canary Wharf to Abbey Wood will be far from quiet I think. The DLR from Poplar/Canning Town to Woolwich seems to me the busiest of all the DLR routes in the evening peak. There's huge demand already there for eastbound from Canary Wharf in the evening. Then consider that Woolwich has another 10k+ homes coming soon. Abbey Wood (and Thamesmead) has around the same. Then past that there's about 20k planned (Erith etc). That stretch has some of the highest housebuilding plans of any London area. Top 3.

 

[Class377/5]

Bearing in mind that TfL were originally planning to order 57 ten-car units, I think that 66 345s is plenty to operate a 24tph service. Don't forget that they have options with Bombardier to order (I think) 17 further nine-car units - the 66th unit was an add-on itself for the Reading extension.
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It's been discussed before, that would throw up far too many headaches with electrification immunity and maintenance blockades.

Worth noting that on Thameslink all 24tph continue on past the Core section, this isn't true with Crossrail and it terminating services at Paddington.

How they are going to deal with terminating services at Paddington with 2.5mins per train is curious. Only way to keep the lines moving is not to check the trains. Why the idea of running them all to Old Oak Common and terminate there (in a fur platform station) is far more sensible.

 

[D365]

How they are going to deal with terminating services at Paddington with 2.5mins per train is curious. Only way to keep the lines moving is not to check the trains. Why the idea of running them all to Old Oak Common and terminate there (in a fur platform station) is far more sensible.

What do you mean? I believe the idea is that trains terminating at Paddington W/B will run to Westbourne Park turnback sidings and back on their own (something equivalent to UTO I believe). Meanwhile the driver has time to walk back through the unit and do a quick visual check before setting up in the eastbound facing cab.

 

[ScotGG]

It'll be interesting to see how many people switch from the Dartford-Greenwich line at Abbey Wood & Woolwich. The morning rush hour trains from Greenwich & Lewisham are atrocious, people fall out of the train onto the platforms at Greenwich, poor people at Deptford have no chance. Hopefully, everyone from Woolwich and further East heading to Cannon Street will switch to Crossrail instead, meaning nice empty trains will roll into Greenwich. A lot of my neighbours in Deptford/Greenwich used to take the bus or DLR instead of the much faster train simply because there was no room on them, even standing.

Odd as I haven't heard anyone in the media talk about how Crossrail will improve the life of Lewisham & Greenwichers, but it is likely to cause the biggest capacity improvement the area has ever seen.

I'm really intrigued to see what happens too. In my position I wouldn't change at Abbey Wood when heading to the City.

By 2018 the Greenwich line trains wont be slowed down by congestion into London Bridge as often happened, so quicker and more reliable jounreys will happen. Fast Abbey Wood to Cannon Street were timetabled as 27 mins in the peaks before rebuilding work at LB. Crossrail gets to the city in about 20 minutes?

So 7 minutes quicker, but why would I get off at Abbey Wood when I likely already have a seat on my SE train (getting seats is harder from Woolwich on) and then change to Crossrail (non-platform so over stairs) and risk not getting a seat? Add in that change and waiting for the train and the 7 mins time improvement has gone.

And who wants to traipse over with a morning coffee in hand etc?

The lack of cross-platform change at Abbey Wood could put off a lot of people changing when coming from Kent if going to the City. People going to Canary Wharf will probably change at AW instead of Woolwich for the DLR but that doesn't reduce numbers on SE trains by the time they reach Greenwich.

That's not even looking at all the new builds in Medway, Darford, Erith, Thamesmead etc. Even if 80% go onto Crossrail the 20% more people will not reduce numbers on the line by Greenwich I'm thinking. But we'll see.

 

[Domh245]

What do you mean? I believe the idea is that trains terminating at Paddington W/B will run to Westbourne Park turnback sidings and back on their own (something equivalent to UTO I believe). Meanwhile the driver has time to walk back through the unit and do a quick visual check before setting up in the eastbound facing cab.

The train should be checked to ensure that there aren't any passengers on it before it carries out that move, which may not be authorised for passengers. As for whether it is authorised for passengers, I'm not sure if that is something that can be dealt with by paperwork, or if it is rule book related. I guess that one way of solving the problem though is just to throw enough staff at the problem so that each one can check a section of train and indicate that it is clear before the train leaves.

 

[hwl]

I'm really intrigued to see what happens too. In my position I wouldn't change at Abbey Wood when heading to the City.

By 2018 the Greenwich line trains wont be slowed down by congestion into London Bridge as often happened, so quicker and more reliable jounreys will happen. Fast Abbey Wood to Cannon Street were timetabled as 27 mins in the peaks before rebuilding work at LB. Crossrail gets to the city in about 20 minutes?

So 7 minutes quicker, but why would I get off at Abbey Wood when I likely already have a seat on my SE train (getting seats is harder from Woolwich on) and then change to Crossrail (non-platform so over stairs) and risk not getting a seat? Add in that change and waiting for the train and the 7 mins time improvement has gone.

And who wants to traipse over with a morning coffee in hand etc?

The lack of cross-platform change at Abbey Wood could put off a lot of people changing when coming from Kent if going to the City. People going to Canary Wharf will probably change at AW instead of Woolwich for the DLR but that doesn't reduce numbers on SE trains by the time they reach Greenwich.

That's not even looking at all the new builds in Medway, Darford, Erith, Thamesmead etc. Even if 80% go onto Crossrail the 20% more people will not reduce numbers on the line by Greenwich I'm thinking. But we'll see.

TfL modelling suggests everyone will get a seat on Crossrail at Abbey Wood for long time to come as all the SE trains would need to empty out.

It depends which bit of the city you are aiming for; if Moorgate, Liverpool Street, Farringdon or Blackfriars/Temple then changing to Crossrail makes sense (at least in the am peak).

Also huge step forward in reliability as there are turn back options for SE services at Charlton or Plumstead if everything goes wrong at London Bridge or Cannon Street with Crossrail providing an alternative route to Docklands and Zone 1.

 

[rebmcr]

I wonder why Crossrail was terminated at Abbey Wood, rather than taking over the line onward to Dartford with the Greenwich line trains being terminated there instead

That's already a long-term plan, but Dartford's junctions need a huge amount of work to remove bottlenecks before that can happen.

 

[Class377/5]

What do you mean? I believe the idea is that trains terminating at Paddington W/B will run to Westbourne Park turnback sidings and back on their own (something equivalent to UTO I believe). Meanwhile the driver has time to walk back through the unit and do a quick visual check before setting up in the eastbound facing cab.

Well traditionally you always go through the train when it terminates to ensure you don't have passengers going to sidings. With 90 second dwell times, there is no time to check the rain even with a person per coach.

Can you imagine a driver trying to deal with a passenger in the sidings alone when the person is drunk demanding to be taken to their stop?

The driver will not be allowed to leave the cab while the train is moving. This is true on the Underground and will be the same the mainline network.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I'm really intrigued to see what happens too. In my position I wouldn't change at Abbey Wood when heading to the City.

By 2018 the Greenwich line trains wont be slowed down by congestion into London Bridge as often happened, so quicker and more reliable jounreys will happen. Fast Abbey Wood to Cannon Street were timetabled as 27 mins in the peaks before rebuilding work at LB. Crossrail gets to the city in about 20 minutes?

So 7 minutes quicker, but why would I get off at Abbey Wood when I likely already have a seat on my SE train (getting seats is harder from Woolwich on) and then change to Crossrail (non-platform so over stairs) and risk not getting a seat? Add in that change and waiting for the train and the 7 mins time improvement has gone.

Depending where exactly in the city you're heading, Crossrail may mean a shorter walk between the station and work. (Or it may mean a longer walk, in which case you'd definitely be better off staying on the Cannon St. train )
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I wonder why Crossrail was terminated at Abbey Wood, rather than taking over the line onward to Dartford with the Greenwich line trains being terminated there instead, the opposite of the Shenfield or Reading line arrangements. It may give some resilience to the Crossrail departures from there, but that is just a euphemism for causing the majority of Crossrail passengers at Abbey Wood to have to make a connection.

Running to Dartford would be difficult. Remember, of the 8 tph that run East of Abbey Wood, only 2 of those actually run to and terminate at Dartford. 2 go to Gillingham, 2 loop onto the Bexleyheath line, and 2 loop onto the Sidcup line. Replacing those with Crossrail trains would certainly cause some issues! Then there's the problem that you'd have to either convert that part of line from 3rd rail to overhead wires (disruptive and expensive) or make CR trains dual voltage (presumably, expensive).

There is an aspiration to extend Crossrail to Ebbsfleet, but that would most likely be in addition to the SouthEastern trains, and so I imagine would require 4-tracking Abbey Wood to Dartford, which isn't cheap. And I have to say right now the SouthEastern service over that part of the route seems to me more than adequate for demand.

 

[louis97]

The driver will not be allowed to leave the cab while the train is moving. This is true on the Underground and will be the same the mainline network.

Crossrail will be different it seems.

The sidings at Westbourne Park will have, as has already been mentioned, a system called Auto Reverse. This allows the train to drive itself into and out of the siding, during this time the driver can walk back through the train to the other cab.

It is detailed here by Rail Engineer.

 

[Class377/5]

Crossrail will be different it seems.

The sidings at Westbourne Park will have, as has already been mentioned, a system called Auto Reverse. This allows the train to drive itself into and out of the siding, during this time the driver can walk back through the train to the other cab.

It is detailed here by Rail Engineer.

Thanks, I wasn't aware of that. Use into Abbey Wood platforms is interesting.

 

[D365]

In the longer term I imagine that the ambition will be to extend all trains to Old Oak Common, with two terminating platforms sandwiched by the through platforms.

Crossrail will be different it seems...

Thanks for the additional detail.