Island Line Railway - current state and the future

[mallard]

a billion is, depending on the definition a thousand million (US) or a million million (UK).

The UK has been on the "short" scale in all official capacities since the 1970s. The old "long" scale is nothing more than an anachronism and doesn't need to be mentioned.

 

[Dougal2345]

That's fifty seven passengers per journey. Enough to fill a single decker bus, with a handful standing, but certainly not enough for a single carriage 153.

I hope those passengers dutifully arrive in groups of 57... because if they're rebellious and buck that trend, there'll be long queues for that single-deck bus. That'll be a fun start for the pensioners starting their holiday, on their feet in a bus shelter for an hour or two trying not to lose their place in the queue.

Actually it reminds me of the story of the engineer engaged to build a bridge over a busy river. He carefully measured all the funnels on the boats that would pass under it, then built the bridge a couple of feet above the average height, just to be on the safe side.

442 services per week, so 22,984 journeys per year.

It'll be nice to swap a pollution-free (at the point of delivery) travel system for 23,000 diesel-powered bus journeys a year. People make too much fuss about lung disease.

 

[Bletchleyite]

57 is actually pretty high given that some trains (e.g. the ones I used last Saturday) carry single figures, and when compared (as above) to most Marston Vale trains having single-figure loadings.

In fact, that seems to suggest it is quite possibly the busiest rural branch line in the UK. Rather changes the game, that.

 

[hooverboy]

57 is actually pretty high given that some trains (e.g. the ones I used last Saturday) carry single figures, and when compared (as above) to most Marston Vale trains having single-figure loadings.

In fact, that seems to suggest it is quite possibly the busiest rural branch line in the UK. Rather changes the game, that.

that's because the marston vale line does not go to MKC. If TPTB had done their homework they would have weekend clubbers and football fans on the footfall, not to mention those transferring from mainline intercity hubs.(that would be a couple of thousand extra per week)

i think in island lines case VLR looks tempting, but needs an east-west route from cowes through newport as well.

 

[pitdiver]

Quite honestly the Marston Vale line doesn't really go anywhere. Bedford Midland Stn is a bit from the town centre, St John's is in the middle of an industrial estate. Bletchley STN is well away from the centre of Bletchley and most of the stone on the route are in the middle of farmland
Someone mentioned that when LM of Thameslink goes pear shaped. It's easier to use coaches on the same route as the X5

 

[Bletchleyite]

Bletchley STN is well away from the centre of Bletchley

It's actually not (if you mean the classic centre rather than the stadium area), the entrance is just on the wrong side. This is planned to be resolved with East West Rail.

 

[Bletchleyite]

that's because the marston vale line does not go to MKC.

Agreed. It would be interesting to work out how much business has been lost from not running to MKC vs. subsidy paid.

 

[ainsworth74]

Okay lets start getting back towards topic. Fair enough to draw comparisons between lines but I feel that we're in danger of getting side tracked into a thread about the Marston Vale line.

Many thanks,
ainsworth74

 

[pitdiver]

Yes of course Bletchley Stn is near the Town Centre. I should know I have used it enough times. Quite right aabit of a drag from the stadium and New Shopping/ Entertainment area.

 

[pitdiver]

Ainsworth you are quite right. We ARE going off on a bit of a Branch Line. Many apologies to everyone.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

While checking something, I just stumbled across this SouthWestRailway page (my bolding)

Our Island Line timetable allows you to plan your journey well in advance – from London Waterloo, across the Solent and onto the Island. Our Island Line service is 30 minutes from Ryde to Shanklin and runs every 30 minutes throughout the day. Have a look at our handy Island Line map.

Bit of stretching of the facts there?

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Wiki (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Island_Line,_Isle_of_Wight) states that...

"passenger numbers ... have fallen rapidly to an estimated 1.31 million in 2014–15. This is the lowest annual estimate since 1998–99, and suggests passenger numbers have fallen by 22% in the last four years"

One thing I'd like to know is why passenger numbers are falling on this line when nationally they have been rising so rapidly elsewhere. What is different about Island Line? What unusual circumstances are there? Are there any other lines where passenger numbers have actually been falling, and if so, can any common circumstances be identified? Has something happened in the last few years to make Island Line less attractive? Are connections to it poorer than they were a few years ago?

The answer to those questions might give clues to what should be done about the line. Indeed, if passenger numbers are behaving so differently on this route compared to the rest of the country, then it would seem absurd to take any decisions about the future of the line based on those passenger numbers without first trying to find out what is causing that difference.

So, looking at RTT for the Esplanade, there's 66 services a day during the week, 66 services a day on a Saturday and 46 services a day on a Sunday.

442 services per week, so 22,984 journeys per year.

That's fifty seven passengers per journey. Enough to fill a single decker bus, with a handful standing, but certainly not enough for a single carriage 153.

Assuming those Wikipedia figures are correct: It's perhaps worth pointing out that 57 passengers/service on average will mean somewhat fewer passengers on a train at any one time (because not all passengers are travelling end-to-end). Even so, that doesn't seem too unreasonable to me for a 2-car ex-underground stock.

However, I think a more interesting question is this: It's reasonable to suppose that on average, each passenger is contributing between £2 and £3 revenue for a single journey (if you take into account through journeys from the mainland, it could be higher, but let's ignore that for now). That means that on average, each train journey is probably picking up about £150ish in revenue.

It's been stated a few times that the line is not viable because the subsidy is 80%. If that figure is correct (I haven't verified it), then that implies the cost of each train journey is about £750 (with £600 being covered by a subsidy). And that seems astonishing to me. Why on Earth would a 24-minute journey cost anything like that to run? For half an hour, staff costs can't be more than about £50ish. There'll be some admin. The trains are nearly 100 years old, so there can't be any capital costs associated with them. Yes, some maintenance to the trains and the line. But £750 for half an hour????? Or, with 2 trains running, £1500 to maintain the trains and line for half an hour? I don't know much about railway finances, but something seems wrong to me there. Are my calculations, and the figures they're based on correct? If so, then maybe, that's the thing that needs looking into?

 

[Chris125]

One thing I'd like to know is why passenger numbers are falling on this line when nationally they have been rising so rapidly elsewhere. What is different about Island Line?

They aren't rising everywhere equally, local factors will apply especially on an Island.

The biggest issues have probably been the withdrawal of council funding for various concession schemes and the schools reorganisation, which has seen a significant decline in pupil numbers at Sandown in recent years. A succession of lengthy closures due to flood/weather damage couldn't have helped, nor the increasingly obvious lack of investment especially in comparison to the buses, the previous MP's scaremongering about closure or the general state of the local economy and Sandown Bay in particular.

That said the trains were very busy throughout the summer, surprisingly so.

 

[daodao]

I have visited the IoW once, in 1967, just after the electric ex-LU trains had been introduced, and made 1 trip on the line/ferry (from Shanklin to Portsmouth Harbour and back). I understood then that this section of the remaining IoW railways extant in 1966 (Ryde-Ventnor and Ryde-Newport-Cowes) was retained to carry the heavy seasonal holiday traffic to Sandown and Shanklin, which was considered too much for buses to cope with. If this is still the case, then the line still has a "raison d'etre"; if not, it should be closed, unless another vital reason for its retention can be found, justifying capital re-investment.

 

[SpacePhoenix]

If it were to be converted to a tram system (which could potentially get around the tunnel problem, how much would it cost to extend to Yarmouth via Newport (with perhaps a branch to Cowes)?

 

[joncombe]

One thing I'd like to know is why passenger numbers are falling on this line when nationally they have been rising so rapidly elsewhere. What is different about Island Line?

Wightlink reduced the frequency of the catamaran a bit so it is only hourly much of the time, which must have an impact on numbers. It does make me wonder why Island Line run along the pier if that train is not due to connect with a ferry.

 

[A0wen]

I have visited the IoW once, in 1967, just after the electric ex-LU trains had been introduced, and made 1 trip on the line/ferry (from Shanklin to Portsmouth Harbour and back). I understood then that this section of the remaining IoW railways extant in 1966 (Ryde-Ventnor and Ryde-Newport-Cowes) was retained to carry the heavy seasonal holiday traffic to Sandown and Shanklin, which was considered too much for buses to cope with. If this is still the case, then the line still has a "raison d'etre"; if not, it should be closed, unless another vital reason for its retention can be found, justifying capital re-investment.

Except in the intervening 50 years the number of tourist visitors to the Isle of Wight has changed as people have changed their holiday destinations and people don't go on holiday using the train in the numbers they did in the 50s and 60s.

The train drops you a distance out of Brading, Sandown and Shanklin - whereas the bus gets you into the centre of each.

For those arriving on the island by car, it's irrelevant.

 

[A0wen]

They aren't rising everywhere equally, local factors will apply especially on an Island.

The biggest issues have probably been the withdrawal of council funding for various concession schemes and the schools reorganisation, which has seen a significant decline in pupil numbers at Sandown in recent years. A succession of lengthy closures due to flood/weather damage couldn't have helped, nor the increasingly obvious lack of investment especially in comparison to the buses, the previous MP's scaremongering about closure or the general state of the local economy and Sandown Bay in particular.

That said the trains were very busy throughout the summer, surprisingly so.

The other factor which hasn't been mentioned was Gordon Brown's free bus pass bung to the pensioners as well. Frankly why pay to travel on the train when you can travel for free on Southern Vectis?

 

[Bletchleyite]

The other factor which hasn't been mentioned was Gordon Brown's free bus pass bung to the pensioners as well. Frankly why pay to travel on the train when you can travel for free on Southern Vectis?

Notably the Conwy Valley Line is included in Welsh passes. Perhaps the Island Line should be too.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Notably the Conwy Valley Line is included in Welsh passes. Perhaps the Island Line should be too.

There is a difference in the fact that what happens in Wales is covered by the fact that it has its own assembly, whereas the Isle of Wight is still covered by the Westminster political establishment.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

The other factor which hasn't been mentioned was Gordon Brown's free bus pass bung to the pensioners as well. Frankly why pay to travel on the train when you can travel for free on Southern Vectis?

Wouldn't that apply across the whole country though, so it wouldn't be a local factor that could explain why one particular line saw declining patronage while others didn't? (Unless that line happened to have previously had an unusually high proportion of pensioners using it).

 

[ainsworth74]

If it were to be converted to a tram system (which could potentially get around the tunnel problem, how much would it cost to extend to Yarmouth via Newport (with perhaps a branch to Cowes)?

Wrong way round. You'd build a tram system to Cowes via Newport and then maybe a branch to Yarmouth (but considering the scarcity of population on the west side of the Island it would be crackers to build a branch out to Yarmouth).

I must admit I do wonder if there wouldn't be more demand for a link between the Islands two major centres of population (and presumably jobs, shops, etc) rather than a link between Ryde and run down seaside resorts?

 

[Chris125]

Except in the intervening 50 years the number of tourist visitors to the Isle of Wight has changed as people have changed their holiday destinations and people don't go on holiday using the train in the numbers they did in the 50s and 60s.

That's hardly unique to the Isle of Wight - the country has dozens of stations and lines serving coastal resorts which no longer carry the vast summer saturday crowds of 40+ years ago, but I think most people recognise they perform an important public service in areas where so much work is seasonal and opportunities are limited.

The train drops you a distance out of Brading, Sandown and Shanklin - whereas the bus gets you into the centre of each.

What you fail to mention is that the bus is half a mile away down the pier from the Catamaran, struggles to cater for visitors with luggage or prams, useless for those with bikes, takes around twice as long if running to time and is much more expensive.

In reality none of the stations are that far from where most people will want to go, Brading High Street is a couple of minutes walk away (not that it's much of a tourist destination), Sandown's is 10 at most as is the beach and pier, and Shanklin is a stones's throw from the end of the High Street. In reality the trains were full and standing throughout the summer with visitors.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I can’t help but think they originally closed the wrong bit.

 

[Stroud Valleys]

If the line was converted to a tram system, could the line be extended to Ventnor and potentially down the hill? Are trams capable of climbing that hill?

Ideally you could gradually reopen lines on the island overtime. The line between Sandown and Newport is intact, then street run through the centre and reopen the original line out to Cowes.

 

[Chris125]

I must admit I do wonder if there wouldn't be more demand for a link between the Islands two major centres of population (and presumably jobs, shops, etc) rather than a link between Ryde and run down seaside resorts?

In a word, no. The Ryde-Newport line was never as well used and more vulnerable to competition from the buses.

Though Sandown Bay has a similar population to Newport's it's relatively linear - this and the three stations make the railway much more accessible to the local population while making the bus service relatively slow and vulnerable to disruption in comparison.

Newport also lacks much of a tourist economy and so doesn't get that influx of visitors from the mainland each summer, with travel to and from mainland much more evenly split between Cowes (for Southampton) and Ryde (for Portsmouth). Sandown Bay is also much more dependent on travel elsewhere for jobs, education and shopping.

 

[Rick1984]

Wightlink reduced the frequency of the catamaran a bit so it is only hourly much of the time, which must have an impact on numbers. It does make me wonder why Island Line run along the pier if that train is not due to connect with a ferry.

Yeah bit rubbish that. Should be half hourly all day every day, with train service to match. Annoying if you just miss connection at Pompey. And to make matters worse the Costa no longer sells booze!

 

[SpacePhoenix]

When we stayed on the IoW for a few days, we noticed that many tourist attractions are a lot easier to reach by car than by public transport

 

[Dougal2345]

When we stayed on the IoW for a few days, we noticed that many tourist attractions are a lot easier to reach by car than by public transport

But that's pretty much the case anywhere isn't it?

 

[Essexman]

I’ve recently read the interesting book The Great Isle of Wight Train Robbery which describes how the Island lost most of its railways. It was written in 1968 and says that although the Ryde to Shanklin Line was reprieved in 1965, it was only for a period of 10 years, so at that time was expected to close in 1975. However I can’t find any reference to the line being reprieved between 1965 & 1975.
Can anyone tell me whether it was indeed due for closure in 1975 and if so how was it saved?
Thanks.