Keolis Amey Wales - Future Rolling Stock

[krus_aragon]

I'm sure a DMU with a kitchen/buffet could be built if desired, but would be expensive as the cost of the design work could only be spread over three vehicles. Much better to use existing but redundant MkIVs.

Indeed. To say it another way: if the catering provision is to be the same as Manchester-Swansea, surely they'd order/use the same stock as Manchester-Swansea.

 

[47802]

I'm sure a DMU with a kitchen/buffet could be built if desired, but would be expensive as the cost of the design work could only be spread over three vehicles. Much better to use existing but redundant MkIVs.

Is it? I would have thought it might be better to tag a few DMU's on at the very end of the order to eventually replace the MK4's perhaps or 3 x 4 car sets with a small kitchen, rather than maintaining the aging MK4's until the end of the franchise.

I do find a little bizarre that new DMU's are good enough for the Manchester route but not for these special services on the Holyhead route.

 

[Dai Corner]

Is it? I would have thought it might be better to tag a few DMU's on at the very end of the order to eventually replace the MK4's perhaps or 3 x 4 car sets with a small kitchen, rather than maintaining the aging MK4's until the end of the franchise.

I do find a little bizarre that new DMU's are good enough for the Manchester route but not for these special services on the Holyhead route.

Well, Keolis will have done the sums and they decided the MkIVs were the better option. Unless its to please influential people?

 

[47802]

Well, Keolis will have done the sums and they decided the MkIVs were the better option. Unless its to please influential people?

I suspect its more the latter and something about Intercity spec stock was probably specified for these trains in the hidden ITT

 

[krus_aragon]

... Intercity spec stock was probably specified for these trains in the hidden ITT

Hear, hear. Also, introducing (a form of) First Class on Manchester-Swansea is an improvement in the service provision, removing loco-hauled on Holyhead-Cardiff would arguably be a reduction.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Thankfully we've been saved from the horrors of a flagship hourly to Cardiff to Holyhead service as the only improvement on offer outside of core valley lines.

According to Rhodri Clarks article in Modern Railways the Manchester to Swansea trains are going to be 5 car with first class. This is a big step up for the Marches. It seems inconceivable that where the Civity's are working that they wont be fitted the SDO as standard - as they have to do all the little stops on the Cambrian Coast and Conwy Valley, west of Llandudno Junction etc where its essential.

Still no news on where the standard only 3 car units will be deployed.

 

[squizzler]

Thankfully we've been saved from the horrors of a flagship hourly to Cardiff to Holyhead service as the only improvement on offer outside of core valley lines.

According to Rhodri Clarks article in Modern Railways the Manchester to Swansea trains are going to be 5 car with first class. This is a big step up for the Marches. It seems inconceivable that where the Civity's are working that they wont be fitted the SDO as standard - as they have to do all the little stops on the Cambrian Coast and Conwy Valley, west of Llandudno Junction etc where its essential.

Still no news on where the standard only 3 car units will be deployed.

I'd have thought you'd get some on your route because I think the Cambrian Coast route would need 3 cars to Aberystwyth and 2 cars on the Pwllheli arm, splitting as they currently do in Machynlleth.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I think the Premier service will be staying, as loco-hauled will allow the kitchen/buffet to continue.

I'm not au fait with LNER's Mk4 kit, do they have a "half kitchen" car which is what Gerald currently has?
I also thought retaining any Mk3s was out - do they even mix and match?
The sets will seemingly do 3 trips a day, so not dedicated to one peak business service to Cardiff and back.

 

[DanNCL]

I'm not au fait with LNER's Mk4 kit, do they have a "half kitchen" car which is what Gerald currently has?

They do, but the kitchen coach on the Mark 4s currently has standard class seating rather than first class seating. That could easily be changed though.

 

[krus_aragon]

The sets will seemingly do 3 trips a day, so not dedicated to one peak business service to Cardiff and back.

The current timetable sees the single set lay over for seven hours during the day, enough time for an extra mid-day journey without losing the morning/evening business traffic. Add a second set to run North-South-North while the other runs South-North-South and you've got your three services a day (with one set spare).* The "active" sets will alternate between berthing at Holyhead and Cardiff each night, which will make maintenance much more straightforward than at present.

*At present the northbound service is part of the two-hourly service, but the southbound isn't, so the timings may be shuffled about somewhat.

A possible timetable, for illustrative purposes:
Set 1:
0425 Holyhead - Cardiff Central, arriving 0920
1119 Cardiff Central - Holyhead, arriving 1610
1651 Holyhead - Cardiff Central, arriving 2136

Set 2:
0525 Cardiff Central - Holyhead, arriving 1040 **
1041 Holyhead - Cardiff Central, arriving 1521
1711 Cardiff Central - Holyhead, arriving 2137

**New service. Path currently used by a Manchester-Holyhead service, which then runs to Cardiff.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The current timetable sees the single set lay over for seven hours during the day, enough time for an extra mid-day journey without losing the morning/evening business traffic. Add a second set to run North-South-North while the other runs South-North-South and you've got your three services a day (with one set spare).* The "active" sets will alternate between berthing at Holyhead and Cardiff each night, which will make maintenance much more straightforward than at present.

*At present the northbound service is part of the two-hourly service, but the southbound isn't, so the timings may be shuffled about somewhat.

A possible timetable, for illustrative purposes:
Set 1:
0425 Holyhead - Cardiff Central, arriving 0920
1119 Cardiff Central - Holyhead, arriving 1610
1651 Holyhead - Cardiff Central, arriving 2136

Set 2:
0525 Cardiff Central - Holyhead, arriving 1040 **
1041 Holyhead - Cardiff Central, arriving 1521
1711 Cardiff Central - Holyhead, arriving 2137

**New service. Path currently used by a Manchester-Holyhead service, which then runs to Cardiff.

That's all fine, but you therefore need 3 kitchen cars (one in each set) just for the couple of premier legs a day.
You also put 1st class (or whatever they intend to call it) on all the LHCS Holyhead legs, which doesn't seem to match what KA has said.
Seems an over-generous provision to me.
I know the Mk4s will be "mature", but a one-third spare provision also seems uneconomic.
EasyJet would not run services like that.
Just having a bit of a grumble really.

 

[krus_aragon]

That's all fine, but you therefore need 3 kitchen cars (one in each set) just for the couple of premier legs a day.
You also put 1st class (or whatever they intend to call it) on all the LHCS Holyhead legs, which doesn't seem to match what KA has said.
Seems an over-generous provision to me.

To quote Ken Skates' statement to the Assembly:

Linking up the nation we will build on the fast service between North and South Wales with further improvements in journeys times, and the expansion to three trains per day of the popular locomotive hauled catered service from December 2019 making use of more comfortable Mark 4 carriages

He seems to think that the kitchen cars will be in use on all journeys.

I know the Mk4s will be "mature", but a one-third spare provision also seems uneconomic.
EasyJet would not run services like that.

ATW currently have 3 DVTs (82306-82308) and a pair of kitchen cars (10249, 10259) on their books, as well as seven(?) standard carriages. After the two loco-hauled diagrams currently operated, that's one of each spare, for 1/3, 1/2 and 1/7 spare. So the planned service isn't that much worse than today's. The eventual numbers of carriages will be similar to Wrexham and Shropshire's (discounting the Chiltern commuter set) as I recall.

On balance I'd prefer ATW/WSMR's catering to that of EasyJet!

Just having a bit of a grumble really.

Keep grumbling: you're keeping the rest of us honest and on our toes with regard to our predictions.

 

[Gareth Marston]

I'd have thought you'd get some on your route because I think the Cambrian Coast route would need 3 cars to Aberystwyth and 2 cars on the Pwllheli arm, splitting as they currently do in Machynlleth.

I hope there not route prescriptive with the standard only 3 car units and move them around following demand peaks.Shrewsbury to Birmingham International needs to see some longer formations than now. 0832 SHR to BHM INTL & 1609 and 1709 ex BHM INTL all need to be more than 4 cars.

0809 ex INTL in the summer is the one we worry most about as its not unknown for people to be left behind at Newtown when the weather is good. This needs more than 4 coaches as well.

 

[Phil from Mon]

I hope there not route prescriptive with the standard only 3 car units and move them around following demand peaks.Shrewsbury to Birmingham International needs to see some longer formations than now. 0832 SHR to BHM INTL & 1609 and 1709 ex BHM INTL all need to be more than 4 cars.

0809 ex INTL in the summer is the one we worry most about as its not unknown for people to be left behind at Newtown when the weather is good. This needs more than 4 coaches as well.

I passed a 6 car (3 x 158) ATW service (1D12 International to Holyhead presumably) heading north between New Street and Wolverhampton yesterday morning, some time between 0930 and 0955

 

[PHILIPE]

I passed a 6 car (3 x 158) ATW service (1D12 International to Holyhead presumably) heading north between New Street and Wolverhampton yesterday morning, some time between 0930 and 0955

It's booked 6 Car

 

[Gareth Marston]

I passed a 6 car (3 x 158) ATW service (1D12 International to Holyhead presumably) heading north between New Street and Wolverhampton yesterday morning, some time between 0930 and 0955

return working of the 0733 ex SHR (0514 ex AYW) to INTL. Booked as 6 car and needs it on its run into New St (arr 0829). ATW's longest booked train and a service that appeared on the Top 10 overcrowded trains in the UK outside London list a few years back.

 

[krus_aragon]

It's recently occurred to me how acquiring the 170s for West Wales / HOWL could be a particularly good move for the future:

If passenger growth leads to a need for additional units, it may be easier to acquire additional 170s than arrange a follow-on order of the Civitys, while avoiding the introduction of an additional microfleet.

If Cardiff-Swansea is electrified, and new EMUs or bi-modes are sought to run some of the SWML services, the exisiting Civitys could be cascaded to West Wales, putting the older 170s off lease instead.

If the 170s don't get displaced, their presence means that not all of the long distance / rural DMUs will require replacing at the same time. They'd be coming up for replacement toward the end of the current franchise, and their replacement could be the basis of fleet expansion (or unlikely contraction) for the next franchise.

 

[Phil from Mon]

It's booked 6 Car

return working of the 0733 ex SHR (0514 ex AYW) to INTL. Booked as 6 car and needs it on its run into New St (arr 0829). ATW's longest booked train and a service that appeared on the Top 10 overcrowded trains in the UK outside London list a few years back.

Thank you

 

[DenmarkRail]

I forgot to post this, but I spoke to a DRS 'office worker' (I don't know his official title), and he said that Keolis Amey haven't expressed any interest in the use of Class 68s for the MK4 sets.

 

[Gareth Marston]

So the missing bits of the Jigsaw as far as rolling stock is concerned are still what hauls the MK4's and where the 3 car ex GA 170's will be deployed long term.

 

[mmh]

I'll have a fiver on a 170 on the Conwy Valley on the same day as a 230 on Crewe-Chester.

 

[Philip]

Still some time away yet, but in terms of the 3-coach CAF units, from a total of 26:

10 x Manchester to Swansea, all with FC.
2 x FC units on maintenance/spare.
6 x Manchester to Bangor standard only; 5 would cover an hourly service but there may be some services continuing to Holyhead.
4 x Liverpool to Shrewsbury/Cardiff standard only.
2 x Liverpool to Llandudno standard only.
2 x standard only for maintenance/spare.

So of the 51 two coach sets; 7 for maintenance, 12 tagged on to Manchester - Swansea services to work forward to West Wales, 2 for remaining Liverpool to Llandudno services, 2 for Conwy Valley, 1 for Crewe to Chester, 2 for strengthening the Manchester - Bangor route and for spare duties. It'd leave about 25 units to work doubled up hourly Birmingham to Cambrian services, with peak time trains and maybe some daytime portion workings running in treble 6-car formations. Would 25 two coach units be enough to cover a sound Cambrian line service?

 

[Cambrian359]

Still some time away yet, but in terms of the 3-coach CAF units, from a total of 26:

10 x Manchester to Swansea, all with FC.
2 x FC units on maintenance/spare.
6 x Manchester to Bangor standard only; 5 would cover an hourly service but there may be some services continuing to Holyhead.
4 x Liverpool to Shrewsbury/Cardiff standard only.
2 x Liverpool to Llandudno standard only.
2 x standard only for maintenance/spare.

So of the 51 two coach sets; 7 for maintenance, 12 tagged on to Manchester - Swansea services to work forward to West Wales, 2 for remaining Liverpool to Llandudno services, 2 for Conwy Valley, 1 for Crewe to Chester, 2 for strengthening the Manchester - Bangor route and for spare duties. It'd leave about 25 units to work doubled up hourly Birmingham to Cambrian services, with peak time trains and maybe some daytime portion workings running in treble 6-car formations. Would 25 two coach units be enough to cover a sound Cambrian line service?

What about Holyhead - Birmingham and Holyhead-Cardiff(not all will be loco hauled will they?)

 

[Gareth Marston]

Still some time away yet, but in terms of the 3-coach CAF units, from a total of 26:

10 x Manchester to Swansea, all with FC.
2 x FC units on maintenance/spare.
6 x Manchester to Bangor standard only; 5 would cover an hourly service but there may be some services continuing to Holyhead.
4 x Liverpool to Shrewsbury/Cardiff standard only.
2 x Liverpool to Llandudno standard only.
2 x standard only for maintenance/spare.

So of the 51 two coach sets; 7 for maintenance, 12 tagged on to Manchester - Swansea services to work forward to West Wales, 2 for remaining Liverpool to Llandudno services, 2 for Conwy Valley, 1 for Crewe to Chester, 2 for strengthening the Manchester - Bangor route and for spare duties. It'd leave about 25 units to work doubled up hourly Birmingham to Cambrian services, with peak time trains and maybe some daytime portion workings running in treble 6-car formations. Would 25 two coach units be enough to cover a sound Cambrian line service?

I sure we'll see them ( 3 car CAF's) all over the network, they will have the capacity to run 2/3/4/5/6 car formations as needed.

 

[Philip]

I sure we'll see them ( 3 car CAF's) all over the network, they will have the capacity to run 2/3/4/5/6 car formations as needed.

Aye, it was more to see if the numbers add up to provide a solid amount of capacity on all of the core routes.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Aye, it was more to see if the numbers add up to provide a solid amount of capacity on all of the core routes.

There's a 50% overall increase in fleet size compared to 158/175 fleet. However this has to be tempered with covering the additional services out of Liverpool primarily. Ive crunched it a few times and they will have around about 6/7 units above what they need to cover the diagrams on the ex CT routes and North Wales to Manchester. That's based on Manchester to Swansea being 5 car and Chester to Liverpool being joined up units from Llandudno/ Shrewsbury and Shrewsbury to Birmingham International being 4 car.

 

[allaction]

BBC Radio Wales featured Keolis Amey and Transport for Wales’s plans for the future in a 30 minutes edition of Eye On Wales in midweek.

It’s available on the BBC Radio iPlayer for the next 25 days or so. Search for Eye On Wales - the programme is called Changing Trains.

 

[Gareth Marston]

BBC Radio Wales featured Keolis Amey and Transport for Wales’s plans for the future in a 30 minutes edition of Eye On Wales in midweek.

It’s available on the BBC Radio iPlayer for the next 25 days or so. Search for Eye On Wales - the programme is called Changing Trains.

2022 is along way off and 2024 for the full pls even further.

 

[Cardiff123]

2022 is along way off and 2024 for the full pls even further.

I fear the travelling public in Wales will become very impatient very quickly.
Not least when trains are shorter next year than they are now due to the 150/2s going away for PRM mods with no trains to cover for them!

Never mind, if everything is branded as 'Transport for Wales' or 'Wales and Borders', at least for Keolis Amey public anger will be directed at TfW / Welsh Govt and not directly at them.

 

[PHILIPE]

I fear the travelling public in Wales will become very impatient very quickly.
Not least when trains are shorter next year than they are now due to the 150/2s going away on mass for PRM mods with no trains to cover for them!

The 150s and 158s have started PRM Mods. According to signals received from Tweets to ATW people seem to be expecting improvements from Day 1 of the new franchise