Liverpool Norwich service to be split at Nottingham

[tbtc]

A few comments:

Firstly, there are some people who travel long distance on the Liverpool - Norwich service. I know a few people who moved from East Anglia to South Yorkshire in the '90s when Norwich Union (as was) moved a lot of jobs to Sheffield. But those kind of "once a year" trips need to be seen against the numbers who use the service for shorter distances on a regular basis - be that Liverpool to Manchester, Manchester to Sheffield or Sheffield to Nottingham. As usual on here, the focus is on the "nice to have" and the "useful for visiting grandparents/ grandchildren in the school holidays" than the daily users.

And, knowing a few of those daily users, frustrated with reliability, struggling with the lack of a "plan B" at the western end (since there are no resources at Liverpool to cope with disruption), dealing with the scrum alighting from/boarding narrow doored 158s at Piccadilly's busy 13/14... I think that the right decision has been made.

The two sides of the route are very different:

• The eastern side needs a lightweight train (to cope with the differentials east of Peterborough) where top speed on the ECML may be very useful).
• The western side needs capacity and wide doors (rather than worrying about top speed or weight).

Heavy rail should focus on simple reliable clockface services and leave the "granny" market to National Express coaches, where people will happily take all day to get between less obvious combinations of places. This is also why I'm underwhelmed by the various complicated suggestions of long distance services splitting/ joining to try to serve several markets at once.

My only regret with giving the Liverpool - Nottingham service to TPE is that I'd rather than TPE gave the Manchester Airport - Cleethorpes service to EMR (I'm all for having one operator doing all of the fast Hope Valley services, but the Cleethorpes service is the runt of the TPE litter and has significantly more in common with EMR (Manchester, Sheffield, Doncaster, Grimsby, Cleethorpes). Either way, fill them up with six coach 185s (at least as far as Doncaster) and go for it.

If we aren't going to have six coach 185s on Liverpool - Nottingham (dealing with the Hope Valley hills) then we might as well put them on the ferry to Ireland - the Calder Valley have been promised brand new 195s, the S&C only requires three or four units, there's no other natural home for the half of the class unwanted once the 802s/ Mk5s arrive at TPE. Trains that had their uses on the original TPE services but I'm relaxed about giving them up to the Irish if we can't find a suitable pennine route for them.

 

[AK1982]

I am not too sure if TPE get it that they will use 185s. That would require the DfT making a decision and TPE doing a deal with Eversholt before Irish Rail does. They have already put out a tender and seem keen on 185s. IR want to a lease until 2027 and TPE cannot sign up past 2025. Depending on the cost of re-gauging Eversholt might just do a deal with IR while the DfT and TPE mess about.

I guess it depends on costs of new units too. If Hitachi have not won the East Midlands bi mode tender then then they will be desperate for work for Newton Aycliffe. In that situation leasing and maintaining 1 x 802 might be appealing compared to 2 x 185s and internally cascading units would make sense.

If there are sufficient paths I would like to see it rerouted via Chat Moss to cut the Liverpool to Sheffield journey time by about 15 minutes. Northern could run an alternative express service on the CLC to Oxford Road and then extend it to Sheffield once the Hope Valley upgrade is done.

Interesting thinking re the chat moss but this would then remove another express service from the CLC line after the removal of TPE last year. No East Midlands services would mean passengers at Warrington Widnes etc relying on northern services only for journeys to Liverpool and Manchester and would not be welcome by passengers.

Keeping the Nottingham services on the CLC is vital I would say.

 

[61653 HTAFC]

Can't see beyond TPE 185s for the northern half of the service tbh. It wouldn't surprise me if the split (and the details of the new EMT franchise) have been designed in order to prevent the negative headlines that would come if quality diesel units are shipped off to Ireland. As TPE can't extend the leases beyond the end of their contract, I'd expect some sort of DfT guarantee to Eversholt to prevent an Irish lease.

And no, you can't have our lovely new Mk5a sets on Hope Valley... it's barely even a real trans-Pennine route!

 

[ForTheLoveOf]

From the perspective of passengers, there are winners and losers from this decision. In terms of raw numbers, there will probably be more winners than losers, but some of the losses will be really quite substantial to the losers, so...

In terms of the winners, the capacity and speed upgrade that a 6 coach 185 service could bring for Liverpool-Nottingham would no doubt be highly welcomed by commuters and even off-peak passengers on those routes. I think it is also just about the only place on the network for which the 185s are a natural enough fit that they can be prevented from being exported (which would be a ridiculous waste).

In terms of the losers, there are obviously those passengers who want to make longer journeys that will now require a change at Nottingham, and it is clear that the railway will lose some revenue from such passengers to other modes, but more obviously to me, the transformation of Liverpool-Nottingham into a true Intercity-style service when it inevitably ends up with TPE will be bad news for passengers in terms of fares along that route.

If you compare fares from Liverpool Lime Street to Nottingham, to Liverpool Lime Street to Brough, two routes which have almost identical mileages and journey times, the fares on TransPennine Express are more expensive in general - the Off-Peak Return is £65.50 vs £61.00, and more importantly the Anytime Return is £86.50 vs £78.40. Perhaps most significantly of all, the cheapest tier of Advance is £15.90 vs £10.50. Overall, TransPennine Express have been known to undertake aggressive revenue management on their franchise 'patch', what with them abolishing many (cheap) Anytime and Off-Peak Day tickets, and introducing peak-time restrictions on previously unrestricted Off-Peak Returns. And whilst EMT introduced Off-Peak restrictions many years before TPE, it is clear that the average fare paid by passengers would no doubt go up.

 

[Confused52]

As a user of this service the split is inevitable on reliability grounds given the problems in the last 12 months have originated all along the route. However I pray that the CLC is not turned into a Northern only desert subject to the whims of those who would bring back disruption. Consequently I hope that TPE get it and use stock that will work at the major pinch point in Manchester but via the CLC to give some diversity.

 

[Bletchleyite]

As a user of this service the split is inevitable on reliability grounds given the problems in the last 12 months have originated all along the route.

You mean the last 25 years or so? It has never been punctual, though when I used to use it in the 1990s cancellations were rare.

It's quite shocking, really, that the punctuality and overcrowding issues couldn't be sorted out over 25 years.

 

[DanTrain]

My only regret with giving the Liverpool - Nottingham service to TPE is that I'd rather than TPE gave the Manchester Airport - Cleethorpes service to EMR (I'm all for having one operator doing all of the fast Hope Valley services, but the Cleethorpes service is the runt of the TPE litter and has significantly more in common with EMR (Manchester, Sheffield, Doncaster, Grimsby, Cleethorpes). Either way, fill them up with six coach 185s (at least as far as Doncaster) and go for it.

But that service doesn't stop at all in the East Midlands? Surely if TPE run the Nottingham service and then run the 3rd Hope Valley fast that will give 3tph on the Hope Valley, potentially using most of the 185 fleet. At this point it becomes a valid secondary arm to the franchise rather than the runt of the litter it currently is.

 

[43074]

But that service doesn't stop at all in the East Midlands? Surely if TPE run the Nottingham service and then run the 3rd Hope Valley fast that will give 3tph on the Hope Valley, potentially using most of the 185 fleet. At this point it becomes a valid secondary arm to the franchise rather than the runt of the litter it currently is.

Cleethorpes and Grimsby are both in the East Midlands. In any case, the operating area of a TOC is determined by operational sense not by the name - Norwich to Liverpool is EMT is because it is mostly resourced from Nottingham, which makes sense with it being the centre. Giving the Cleethorpes to Manchester route to EMR could make sense as there is already an EMR (& TPE) crew depot in Sheffield and EMR will be running the Barton line.

 

[DanTrain]

Cleethorpes and Grimsby are both in the East Midlands. In any case, the operating area of a TOC is determined by operational sense not by the name - Norwich to Liverpool is EMT is because it is mostly resourced from Nottingham, which makes sense with it being the centre. Giving the Cleethorpes to Manchester route to EMR could make sense as there is already an EMR (& TPE) crew depot in Sheffield and EMR will be running the Barton line.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cleethorpes
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grimsby

Technically they're not...they're in Yorkshire and the Humber. You are of course right that routes are designated for operational reasons not location, but I don't see how EMR operating to Liverpool is preferential when TPE already have a base at Liverpool.

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

Cleethorpes and Grimsby are both in the East Midlands. In any case, the operating area of a TOC is determined by operational sense not by the name - Norwich to Liverpool is EMT is because it is mostly resourced from Nottingham, which makes sense with it being the centre. Giving the Cleethorpes to Manchester route to EMR could make sense as there is already an EMR (& TPE) crew depot in Sheffield and EMR will be running the Barton line.

They are in Yorkshire and the Humber (formerly Yorkshire and Humberside). It was proposed that it should be transferred to East Midlands (from Sheffield to Cleethorpes) but was rejected due to severe opposition from local users of the line with the loss of direct trains to Manchester and the airport.

Back to Norwich to Liverpool, I think it should not be split because it is something no one asked for. Wasn’t it proposed for splitting when the Central trains franchise expired but was later saved.

 

[Killingworth]

It's some time since I read in the franchising documentation that Liverpool - Nottingham was likely to be split off and run by TPE or Northern.

It was so long ago that it was anticipated to be after the Hope Valley Capacity Improvement Scheme had been completed - then planned to be December 2018! As time has passed documentation has covered East Midlands possibly keeping it indefinitely. The earliest projected completion date for the HVCIS being ready for scheduled trains is now December 2022, and May 2023 is being suggested - if it gets the much anticipated go ahead this autumn.

I spoke informally to a franchising officer from the DfT over 2 years ago and he made it clear that they weren't totally happy with either 158s or 185s on this Liverpool-Manchester-Sheffield-Nottingham section. 158s aren't as fast and don't offer first class, but can be made into 2, 4, 6 or even 8 coach walk through trains. 185s are restricted to 3, 6 or 9 car trains (unlikely they could, or ever would, go to 9) without walk through and first class sections that take a large proportion of a 3 car train. DfT wanted refreshments available throughout the train for this western section of Liverpool-Norwich. At present 3 car trains are too short on TPE services. East Midlands 4 car trains are nearer the current need, although 5 would be better.

Since then all TOCs have had difficulties with late arriving new trains and it's very likely the new Abellio East Midlands will have even more.

My reading of all this is that when the extra service between Sheffield and Manchester is finally added, about 2022/23, it will go to Northern, standard class only, possibly/probably not terminating in Piccadilly and Sheffield, but exactly where else still up in the air. Extensions of existing services?

TPE to get the current East Midlands but not necessarily to be operated by 185, but it surely must be decided very soon. The possibility of a Stagecoach appeal may muddy the waters for a few more weeks yet. This way both TPE and Northern would be running 2tph between Sheffield and Manchester

In passing I must mention Platforms 13 and 14. It may not have been officially revealed, and I can't vouch for accuracy, but I understand the number of passengers passing through the two platforms 13 and 14 are greater than through all the platforms at Sheffield put together and may be greater than all the other platforms in the main shed at Piccadilly. Those who use Piccadilly may not find that all that surprising but it would be good to have confirmation. My source was someone in a position who might well have seen those figures if they exist. Platforms 15 and 16 are needed, but the business case is still, apparently, unmade.

 

[backontrack]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cleethorpes
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grimsby

Technically they're not...they're in Yorkshire and the Humber. You are of course right that routes are designated for operational reasons not location, but I don't see how EMR operating to Liverpool is preferential when TPE already have a base at Liverpool.

Well, Lincolnshire can have 'em.

 

[DanTrain]

Well, Lincolnshire can have 'em.

- Cleethorpes had a reasonable beach at least!

 

[backontrack]

- Cleethorpes had a reasonable beach at least!

Fair enough, we'll annex it and run ferry services from Withernsea.

 

[Chester1]

Interesting thinking re the chat moss but this would then remove another express service from the CLC line after the removal of TPE last year. No East Midlands services would mean passengers at Warrington Widnes etc relying on northern services only for journeys to Liverpool and Manchester and would not be welcome by passengers.

Keeping the Nottingham services on the CLC is vital I would say.

I know its not ideal for CLC to be reliant on Northern services only but it would reflect the relative importance of the towns along the line and that its now very much the secondary route between Liverpool and Manchester. I think to add substance to the "Northern Powerhouse" journey times between Liverpool and Sheffield need to be reduced from the current 1 hour 45 minutes. I don't know if there would be the paths via Chat Moss though. Long term I think the right level for the CLC 769s on the stoppers and 2 Northern Connect services using 195s (to the Airport and to Sheffield).

Can't see beyond TPE 185s for the northern half of the service tbh. It wouldn't surprise me if the split (and the details of the new EMT franchise) have been designed in order to prevent the negative headlines that would come if quality diesel units are shipped off to Ireland. As TPE can't extend the leases beyond the end of their contract, I'd expect some sort of DfT guarantee to Eversholt to prevent an Irish lease.

And no, you can't have our lovely new Mk5a sets on Hope Valley... it's barely even a real trans-Pennine route!

I think your giving the DfT far too much credit to plan things like that. The split is the result of several years of political pressure from TfGM and Rail North/TfN. Eversholt will lease the 185s to whoever gives them the highest profit. The cost of re-gauging them for Ireland would give TPE an advantage but nothing more. TPE will also pick the units based on costs and revenues and double 185s are not cheap to run. The Mark Vs where chosen because of the backlog of work at Newton Aycliffe and so that the locos could be switched if Manchester to York was wired on schedule. 802s are more suited for the semi electrified North TPE services and can run 125mph on ECML. Its costs that will determine rolling stock if TPE takeover the route. What costs more to lease, maintain and run? Double 185s cost more to fuel than a single 802 and require two guards vs one. A dedicated 1st Class carriage will be more appealing than the first class compartment of a 185s. I don't think it would make sense to run 802s on Liverpool-Nottingham or Manchester Airport-Cleethorpes but there may be a good business case for leasing more for North TPE and internally cascading units for Liverpool-Nottingham.

Liverpool-Nottingham will need 12 units rostered each day and probably 2 spare. That would leave 8 without work from early next year. Unless another ToC leases them, IR will probably take those 8, generating negative headlines anyway.

 

[CJ]

Should TPE acquire the service, could this also open up new opportunities for other services to be formed/made? (e.g. Liverpool - Cleethorpes, Manchester Airport - Nottingham)

 

[Burgerstahl]

I don’t think Liverpool - Norwich should be split, but it is being. I didn’t expect Grayling to listen to me, or the majority of respondents in the consultation.
Interesting that 185’s are in the frame to do Notts - Liverpool, as the 3 car/6 car combo isn’t ideal. Could they be remarshalled into 4 car and 2 car sets ?

 

[Confused52]

I know its not ideal for CLC to be reliant on Northern services only but it would reflect the relative importance of the towns along the line and that its now very much the secondary route between Liverpool and Manchester. I think to add substance to the "Northern Powerhouse" journey times between Liverpool and Sheffield need to be reduced from the current 1 hour 45 minutes. I don't know if there would be the paths via Chat Moss though. Long term I think the right level for the CLC 769s on the stoppers and 2 Northern Connect services using 195s (to the Airport and to Sheffield).

Thankfully TfGM see that there needs to be growth and are looking at an increase in the service on the CLC using Tram Trains. However I am baffled which towns are more important than Warrington and Widnes given that the Chat Moss only touches the outskirts of St.Helens.

 

[Chester1]

I don’t think Liverpool - Norwich should be split, but it is being. I didn’t expect Grayling to listen to me, or the majority of respondents in the consultation.
Interesting that 185’s are in the frame to do Notts - Liverpool, as the 3 car/6 car combo isn’t ideal. Could they be remarshalled into 4 car and 2 car sets ?

They can't be split, there is key equipment in each coach that would make it hugely expensive. Someone with more knowledge than me explained it when was brought up previously. There is nothing official to say its been given to TPE or that they would keep extra 185s to run them, although both are reasonable guesses. I still think there is a sizeable chance IR will out bid TPE and take the 185s. They are banned from ordering any new diesel units and they can't buy second hand from mainland Europe. There are few British DMUs that meet their requirements that are available to lease next year. They want DMUs with fast acceleration for long distance commuter services into Dublin and 185s fit the bill. TPE or Northern could use East Midlands 158s until new stock arrived and then give them to the new franchise.

Its not really clear when the split will be done. "Early in the franchise" could mean anything between December this year and 2-3 years time. TPE can handback upto 12 units before 8th December this year. They could plausibly keep them and use them to take over Liverpool-Nottingham at the December 2019 change or May 2020. If its say May or December 2021 they could order more 802s off Hitachi.

I quite like the 185s since the refurbishment but they waste fuel and require 2 guards to run doubled up. They are not suited to Northern either, it would be cheaper to order extra 195s if they needed more long regional DMUs in the long term. The one advantage they have for Liverpool-Nottingham is doors at thirds for faster dwell times at Piccadilly and Oxford Road.

 

[ainsworth74]

Interesting that 185’s are in the frame to do Notts - Liverpool, as the 3 car/6 car combo isn’t ideal. Could they be remarshalled into 4 car and 2 car sets ?

Why would you want to do that?!

 

[Glenn1969]

Will it definitely be TPE for Liverpool to Nottingham or could it be used to help launch Northern Connect in say May or December 2020?

 

[ainsworth74]

Will it definitely be TPE for Liverpool to Nottingham or could it be used to help launch Northern Connect in say May or December 2020?

Nothing public yet on that. The assumption most people seem to be running with is TPE and the spare 185s but there's absolutely nothing public yet about what the plan might actually be.

 

[mmh]

Double 185s cost more to fuel than a single 802 and require two guards vs one.

Why do double 185s need two guards?

 

[Burgerstahl]

Why would you want to do that?!

To make them into 4 cars.

 

[Chester1]

Why do double 185s need two guards?

Correct me if I am wrong but haven't TPE staff posted that? Or is it just Northern that don't allow it if the two units don't have end gangways? Running double units doesn't make much sense if extra 802s or even Mark V sets can be ordered at a reasonable price. The 185 coaches are shorter, 185s have an inefficient layout and double sets waste space on cabs so have a similar number of seats to both alternatives. Taking over the route would be a good opportunity to take another step towards a proper intercity franchise. If they order new stock they could combine it with an order to use the option in the franchise to reduce the number of 185s further, down to just 14 units (for the North TPE stopper(s) and Airport-Cleethorpes services).

 

[NoMorePacers]

Why do double 185s need two guards?

They aren't gangwayed meaning a guard can't walk between two units.

 

[ainsworth74]

To make them into 4 cars.

Or you could have six car operation with doubled up units? Plus that would give you two car units which is surely worse than a three car?!?

 

[adamedwards]

Is the other possibilities waiting until the 222s come off the Midland MainLine and then using them? Disadvantage is the doors, but potential of longer trains. I am assuming first class would be reduced or abolished.

 

[Ianno87]

You mean the last 25 years or so? It has never been punctual, though when I used to use it in the 1990s cancellations were rare.

It's quite shocking, really, that the punctuality and overcrowding issues couldn't be sorted out over 25 years.

In the mid-late 90s, it did make the lineup on BBC North West Tonight for the apparent frequency with which it regularly got terminated at Warrington Central instead od operating through to Lime St.

But the most notable service improvement over the last 25 years was the introduction of 4 car working west of Nottingham on most trains in the early 2010s - a welcome breath of fresh air!

 

[High Dyke]

A split in the Norwich - Liverpool service is a real backwards step.

Although a lot on here try and claim everyone just goes via London whenever it's discussed as a semi regular user of the service I see the opposite. Really disappointing.

Having seen the debate on here about this then it could be said the DfT has made that decision, irrelevant of how stupid or wrong that is. I currently use the through service when attending football matches in the North West of England. Yes there are suitable alternative routes to get to Manchester for someone travelling from Lincolnshire; and no not via London... OK i have a vested interest in the continuation of a through service by the incoming operator; I currently have free travel on EMT, but would lose that perk if the service is split up between two different operators.

However I can also see the other side of the coin here. On a daily basis any delay in the Manchester area or across the Hope Valley sees the knock-on effect at Nottingham to the local service to Skegness, though for their credit the signallers at Derby do sometimes show mercy and allow the slower Skegness service to run ahead of the delayed Norwich train.