Will it definitely be TPE for Liverpool to Nottingham or could it be used to help launch Northern Connect in say May or December 2020?
No, it isn't certain yet (not publicly anyway) which is probably driving TPE planners up the wall. Northern Connect don't do 1st class. DfT want first class offering on all fast services on at least the Manchester-Sheffield corridor. 158's don't do 1st class. 4 coaches are just about adequate for most of the day
185s come as 3 or 6 coach trains. DfT want a refreshment service throughout the train, so that means doubling up, leaving aside any need for guards.After deducting almost half a 1st class section a 3 car 185 is woefully inadequate., but it doesn't need as many as 6 cars on most trains - yet.
They can operate with one guard, but can't stop at any station where selective door opening needs to be opened without two. Dore & Totley currently gets Monday-Friday stops by two regular 6 coach trains now. They are timed for a one minute stop. They normally take at least 2 minutes! The platform was 6 coach length until 1985 and is due to be lengthened, by 2022.
That's where the prevarication is coming in. Until the Hope Valley Capacity Improvement Scheme can be completed the 4th passenger path can't be allocated and until it is remapping of existing services is being deferred. It occurs to me that getting on with the split now would be sensible. Assuming the Stagecoach protests don't go sufficiently legal to scupper everything, I can't see why the remapping couldn't begin as soon as December, or at the latest next May. But that brings us to question if TPE would still want to use 185s even if they then have enough.
Incidentally I have used the service from Dore to Norwich a couple of times - probably a rare journey, and also from Chesterfield. Maybe half a carriage at most stay aboard through Nottingham. On my last trip several of them were travelling together from Manchester to a meeting at the Woodland Trust's offices in Grantham, a journey they seemed to make several times a month. (I'd mention that if fares are important either routeing can be cheapest, as ECML loadings can vary a lot to influence thed rates.)
Former colleagues of mine sometimes travel from Sheffield to Norwich. They never use the direct service. It takes too long with almost 10 minutes at Nottingham for recovery and to detach/attach 2 coaches. It's quicker out to Doncaster and then the ECML to catch up with that direct service at Grantham - saving about 13 minutes! I prefer to stay on the same train all the way for peace of mind.