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Media Coverage of COVID -19
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So these figures for deaths from covid have a few ifs and buts in them.
An interesting exchange just now on Twitter, from Channel 4's Cathy Newman and a member of the public. Follow this link (will quote below too):
Cathy responded:
Unfortunately I didn't watch the TV interview. But first time in a while I've heard the media/any journalist make this comparison, and it's interesting how a lot of the comments on Twitter were along the lines of "It’s a disgraceful misrepresentation of the facts" etc etc. People are still following their own ideas about how this is playing out and are quite simply not looking at the statistics anymore.
Cathy responded:
Unfortunately I didn't watch the TV interview. But first time in a while I've heard the media/any journalist make this comparison, and it's interesting how a lot of the comments on Twitter were along the lines of "It’s a disgraceful misrepresentation of the facts" etc etc. People are still following their own ideas about how this is playing out and are quite simply not looking at the statistics anymore.
Good to see some of the actual mainstream media opening their eyes to reality, long may it continue.
41,514 died WITH COVID (after a positive test less than 28 days before death), the number of people who actually died just because they caught it will likely be substantially smaller than that figure.
jumble
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How about we get the figures about how many deaths were from Covid alone and nothing else as I have never seen this.
The CDC in the USA announced their figures as less than 10k within the last week. I think the best estimates I've seen for the UK have been in the region of about 1500 - while that was a while ago, as no significant numbers of people have died for months it's not going to have moved
Even if such figures were available, the Facebook Karens of the world would just ignore them because of the artificial level of fear the government has hyped up.
Careful what you wish for - last thing we need is people baying for lockdowns over the winter in the future for flu season.
Scrotnig
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I'm very worried we've already headed down that road, one way or another. The precedent has been set.
We may well see record low flu deaths this winter due to the ongoing restrictions which will also retard the spread of flu as well as Covid-19.
As soon as that becomes apparent it'll get used an excuse to keep restrictions in place.
But the restrictions don't seem to be retarding flu (flu and pneumonia deaths are currently running higher than flu). This might suggest that the restrictions are actually not having any impact at all!
scotrail158713
Established Member
This is a more encouraging article from the BBC. It recognises issues such as the truth in recent “spikes”, and how practical a vaccine really is.
As summer ends, UK must square up to Covid again
But low infection rates, falling hospitalisations and better therapies are encouraging signs.
www.bbc.co.uk
It is crunch time for coronavirus in the UK.
Children are returning to school and, with summer over, the return of colder weather and dark nights means more time will be spent indoors, giving the virus a better chance of spreading.
So how strong a position are we in to fight the virus?
Infection rates are low
There was a point at which the UK appeared to be among the worst-hit countries in the pandemic - a review by the Office for National Statistics found that by the middle of June, the UK had the highest level of excess deaths.
But if you make international comparisons now, the UK is performing remarkably well.
This is despite much being made of the rise in cases since early July.
Daily case numbers have risen from just above 500, on average, to over 1,300 - although some of that is down to more testing being put in place.
But the numbers also need to be seen in context.
Because of the lack of testing available in the spring, it is unclear exactly how many cases there were when coronavirus was at its peak in the UK.
There were days when confirmed cases hit 6,000. But that was just the tip of the iceberg.
It has since been estimated there were perhaps as many as 100,000 infections a day at the end of March.
Of course, the system is still not detecting all the cases even with the extra testing in place.
The Office for National Statistics surveillance programme suggests the true level of infection may be about twice what is being recorded currently. But that's still a fraction of the cases seen in the spring.
Fewer people admitted to hospital
And while there is evidence of cases increasing, that has not translated into an increase in people being admitted to hospital.
Deaths are also low - down to under 10 a day on average.
There is no guarantee it will stay like this, of course.
Many of the new cases are being seen in young adults who are now out more, either working or socialising.
They are at very low risk of complications so this may not seem too concerning - after all, society has to function - but the fear remains that this could lead to the frail and vulnerable catching the virus.
That said, those who fall into the more vulnerable groups will naturally be taking more precautions.
But the problem, says Edinburgh University infectious diseases expert Prof Mark Woolhouse, comes if the levels of infection rise substantially from the level being seen at the moment.
"Spillover into the high-risk population could become very hard to avoid."
A vaccine is not going to rescue us... yet
- How many Covid cases trigger a local lockdown?
- How do I get a coronavirus test?
- Can my child go to school with a cold?
The international effort to find a vaccine is unprecedented.
There are about 150 initiatives in development, including more than 20 that have begun human trials.
Image copyrightREUTERS
One of the most promising is being developed by Oxford University - and early results suggest it can trigger an immune response.
A deal has been signed to supply 100 million doses in the UK alone.
But even with the rapid progress that is being made, a vaccine is very unlikely to be available until the middle of next year at the earliest.
And there are, of course, no guarantees it will work or just how long the protection it offers us will last.
Leading immunologist Prof Sir John Bell, of the University of Oxford, believes the likeliest scenario will be a vaccine like the one for flu that offers some protection for a limited period.
A smallpox scenario whereby a jab can wipe out the disease is only considered to be a remote possibility.
But doctors have learnt how to save more lives
Real progress has been made in the past few months on how best to treat patients who fall seriously-ill with coronavirus - for the overwhelming majority it only causes a mild illness.
A cheap and widely available, low-dose steroid treatment - dexamethasone - has been found to reduce the risk of death in seriously ill patients (those who require intensive care) by a third and is now being routinely used on the frontline.
It was research carried out in the UK that helped to make this breakthrough, which came in June.
Since then trials have found another steroid, hydrocortisone, is equally effective.
Other breakthroughs will no doubt come.
Different treatments are being tested on patients around the world, including the use of blood plasma from people who have been infected and recovered from the virus.
Can the virus be contained in the meantime?
It is going to be a major challenge.
The virus is stealthy. It can be passed on before symptoms develop and, significantly, some people never even know they are infectious. This is what makes it so difficult to contain.
Infections are almost certainly going to rise. But the key question is by how much and among which groups.
Crucial to the success will be the testing and tracing regime.
Each UK nation runs its own contact tracing system, but they work on the same principles - the details of positive cases are passed on to contact tracers who then try to identify their close contacts and ask them to isolate.
Huge strides have been made to set up an effective system. The UK is now carrying out more tests per head of population than Spain, France and Germany.
But problems still remain. A backlog has developed in processing tests at the three mega labs, which means it is taking longer to give people results - he average turnaround time is now more than 24 hours. The problems have prompted testing to be prioritised in high infection areas, meaning in some areas people are struggling to book tests at local centres.
And demand continues to grow all the time. Scotland saw a big rise in tests being requested for children after schools went back in August.
Contact tracing is also still a work in progress. England's service, for example, is still not quite reaching the 80% of positive cases and close contacts it is aiming to - although it is not that far short.
But for all the difficulties that remain, the pattern of infections, the infrastructure now in place and the improvement in treatment all do offer hope.
Note that the hospital admissions graph in that article clearly shows the misleading nature of the current Welsh figures, which is apparently being looked into now. That should knock UK hospital admissions per day down to around 50, rather than the around 100 currently reported.
Surely a more realistic explanation would be that some of those people who would have died from flu this winter have "pre-died" of Coronavirus already?
Thus in the longer term it will be interesting to look at total deaths for 2019, 2020 & 2021 and see the wider overview.
Scrotnig
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Of course, but I fear that isn't what will happen. Hysteria will break out on Facebook and twitter, and the government will inexlcably accede to their demands. Which is exactly what they've been doing since the start of all this.
It's as if some senior advisor has said "Boris old chap, I'm told this "social media" thing is a very good guage of public opinion, I think we should base policy on it".
NSEFAN
Established Member
Rapdily changing policy is still policy.
Rapdily changing policy is still policy.
The "policy" is perhaps to consult with Karen on Facebook and see what she thinks?
Jamiescott1
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I'm guessing Dr Sarah jarvis is not there.
She's often on vine on radio2 and she's on the sturgeon level of doom mongering
No, it was an economist chap who had done some calculations on the various risks. He recognised the limitations of his calculations as well.
Why do they always refer to local measures as “lockdown”
The headline tonight was “Could Leeds be heading into lockdown?”
In reality they mean “Could people in Leeds be stopped from visiting other households but still be able to do pretty much everything else?”
The headline tonight was “Could Leeds be heading into lockdown?”
In reality they mean “Could people in Leeds be stopped from visiting other households but still be able to do pretty much everything else?”
In reality it’s not even that bad, it’s simply “could people in Leeds be strongly advised to avoid visiting others with no actual stricter rules/laws put in place)
johnnychips
Established Member
Newspaper headlines: Virus 'shifts to young' and call ahead of A&E trip
There has been an "extraordinary" change in the age of people diagnosed with coronavirus, one paper reports.
www.bbc.co.uk
The Times notes that most of the new CV cases are amongst the young and thus this lessens fears of a second lockdown.
bramling
Veteran Member
That’s the unfortunate result of 9 months of increasing hysteria. Back in March no doubt the self-same people would have been piling up their shopping trolley with toilet rolls.
Kinda like the Sturgeon route for Glasgow... lockdown lite...
I think at times when media say lockdown(s) I do wonder if it’s a wind up, surely it be putting it into better context ie some restrictions but then again it’s for clicks and to sensationalise these days..
Just to add the MPS/MSPS aren’t any better either..
scotrail158713
Established Member
I’m seeing more and more articles like these now. It’s very reassuring, and hopefully it causes a drip effect towards most people’s attitudes now.Newspaper headlines: Virus 'shifts to young' and call ahead of A&E trip
There has been an "extraordinary" change in the age of people diagnosed with coronavirus, one paper reports.www.bbc.co.uk
The Times notes that most of the new CV cases are amongst the young and thus this lessens fears of a second lockdown.
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