Midland Main Line project in jeopardy?

[sprinterguy]

To be fair, I've quietly questioned the logic of spending billions upgrading the MML when HS2 will follow on 7-8 years later - that same logic appears to be ringing true on TransPennine but with an even shorter timeframe for HS3. Just do what's necessary to enable integration with future HS2/3 services.

I may very well have overlooked a major announcement, but have any "HS3" proposals been confirmed as being more than a 125mph upgrade of Transpennine North with cut-offs, etc? I wouldn't be surprised based on this announcement if TPE electrification and "HS3" were roled into a single project, the former being expanded in scope and the latter reduced to reach a common middle ground, with a delivery date more in the region of 2025 - 2030.

 

[CdBrux]

From Patrick McLoughlin in the debate after the announcement:

The priority for the route is to improve capacity and speeds, so that there can be six rather than five trains an hour from St Pancras. We will press on with the rebuilding to speed up and straighten the track at Market Harborough, and with the rebuilding of the Derby track layout.

As for electrification, which he was asked about many times this is perhaps the most informative reply:

Nigel Mills (Amber Valley) (Con):
My constituents will also be disappointed by the pause in the electrification of the midland main line. They want to know whether it is a pause or a cancellation, so will the Secretary of State say when he might expect that electrification to happen? Is it by 2025 or might it be a bit earlier than that?


Mr McLoughlin:
If my hon. Friend will allow me, I will allow Sir Peter to do his report before I start saying what will be in it. I usually find that that is the best course of action on these occasions, rather than anticipating what will be in a report that I have just commissioned before I have received it. As I have said to other colleagues on the subject of the line that my hon. Friend and I both use regularly, getting to the position where we have six trains an hour from St Pancras will be an improvement.

whole text available:

http://www.parliament.uk/business/p...mons/todays-commons-debates/read/unknown/426/

 

[SpacePhoenix]

Assuming that electrification gets it gets delayed by many years, how many new high-speed DMUs would need to be designed and built to replace the HSTs (realistically how many years life have MMLs HSTs got left)?

 

[TheNewNo2]

Cue outrage from Sheffield, Nottingham and Derby MPs, and quite right too.

Meanwhile the £15bn road building programme and (more than likely) Crossrail2 goes ahead.

London rules OK ?

Crossrail 2 is something which needs to happen, along with the diversion of some WCML services onto Crossrail 1. HS2 will significantly increase the traffic at Euston, and the Underground frankly can't handle it. It also relieves pressure on Waterloo and on the Piccadilly, Northern and Victoria lines. Without Crossrail 2, HS2 can't happen.

While I agree that the possible cancellation of the Midland Main Line electrification isn't good, it's not a big problem in of itself. The line gets by as is, and could do so for quite a while longer without significant issues. Furthermore, given the work for it is upgrades rather than digging an entirely new railway, it has a significantly shorter lead time. Crossrail 2 probably won't be ready for 20 years, the MML electrification could probably be done in two. Yes it'll be delayed, but I'd still bet on it being complete before Crossrail 2.

 

[LTJ87]

Well it is at least some consolation that the straightening of track at Market Harborough and remodelling of Derby is still going ahead.

Though the benefit from electrification of reduced journey times on the stopping services that make up most of the weekday peak departures would still be welcomed.

 

[158756]

From the debate this afternoon:

McLoughlin: 'I hope very much that the line(MML) will be electrified, but at present it is right for us to ensure that we secure the best value for money on the railways.'

His use of the word 'hope' doesnt encourage much confidence.

Considering what's happened in the past, one must wonder if electrification really can be value for money in the UK.

 

[LLivery]

What they want and what they'll get are two very different things.

I've long warned people who have said about electrification to Corby to be a great thing to be very careful what they wish for. And to have a long, hard look at the ECML or WCML to see what the future holds.

The ECML is the best example - the stations between Hitchin & Peterborough have ended up being KX suburban stations post electrification and they are very similar to those on the MML in terms of distance from London.

The odd one is Kettering because of the Corby branch - so the need to maintain connectivity on the Leicester line is a factor - which was picked up in one of the RUSs.

Paths between Bedford & Corby aren't a problem - particularly if they reinstate the slow lines between Bedford & Kettering.

Paths from London - Bedford *may* be found with some creativity - a bit like LM "found" a path when they diverted the TV services as part of project 110 - if a Meridian were to run fast to Luton and then fast to Kettering, could an EMU run in it's wake, stopping at more of the intermediate places?




But the pressure will be to reduce journey times from places like Leicester, Derby and Nottingham to be comparable to those seen by Birmingham, Stoke or Crewe for example.

Some of that will mean re-modelling - e.g. Market Harborough - but others will be about looking creatively - and that will almost certainly mean places like Wellingborough becoming part of the London commuter network rather than part of the long-distance Inter City network.

Although I agree to an extent, I don't have much of a doubt that Wellingborough and Kettering will continue to have an hourly service to Leicester and even Nottingham in the future. This may be provided by an MML service or an EWR service, but trains only going as far as Corby serving these towns seems very unlikely. The towns need services north and are more important population/future population wise than anywhere between Hitchin and Peterborough. Even Huntingdon's population is half of Wellingborough's and that's not including the future 7,000 houses. Also the pressure to reduce journey times to Nottingham for the semi-fast service is non-existent, its for the fast service and with four tracking, timetabling shouldn't be too much of an issue either.

 

[PhilipW]

Is it likely that the continuous 4-tracking from Bedford to Kettering will still go ahead ?

 

[LowLevel]

Yes, as will Market Harborough straightening.

 

[47802]

Crossrail 2 is something which needs to happen, along with the diversion of some WCML services onto Crossrail 1. HS2 will significantly increase the traffic at Euston, and the Underground frankly can't handle it. It also relieves pressure on Waterloo and on the Piccadilly, Northern and Victoria lines. Without Crossrail 2, HS2 can't happen.

While I agree that the possible cancellation of the Midland Main Line electrification isn't good, it's not a big problem in of itself. The line gets by as is, and could do so for quite a while longer without significant issues. Furthermore, given the work for it is upgrades rather than digging an entirely new railway, it has a significantly shorter lead time. Crossrail 2 probably won't be ready for 20 years, the MML electrification could probably be done in two. Yes it'll be delayed, but I'd still bet on it being complete before Crossrail 2.

Well it will still leave the issue of what to do with the HST's, maybe life extended and made compliant maybe a few more will need to be added for extra capacity, or a new build maybe another variant of Bi-mode At300 perhaps, but obviously there is plenty of life left in the Meridians and works to improve capacity and journey times will help.

 

[AM9]

Well it will still leave the issue of what to do with the HST's, maybe life extended and made compliant maybe a few more will need to be added for extra capacity, or a new build maybe another variant of Bi-mode At300 perhaps, but obviously there is plenty of life left in the Meridians and works to improve capacity and journey times will help.

Were that the case with MML electrification to Corby, then the bi-modes could run electric to Kettering making tighter paths viable.

 

[MidlandMainlie]

Is it likely that the continuous 4-tracking from Bedford to Kettering will still go ahead ?

Yes, as will Market Harborough straightening.

So it seems that most of the improvements minus electrification will still go ahead. Can anyone answer how many bridges between Bedford and Corby have been rebuilt for electrification vs how many are left if enough gave been done then it may be best to extend the electrification to Corby and allow 222's to be displaced to replace HST's on the Nottingham fast services.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Well it will still leave the issue of what to do with the HST's, maybe life extended and made compliant maybe a few more will need to be added for extra capacity, or a new build maybe another variant of Bi-mode At300 perhaps, but obviously there is plenty of life left in the Meridians and works to improve capacity and journey times will help.

Aren't AT-300's limited to 100mph on Diesel though?

 

[muddythefish]

This is very depressing news today - and with the Manchester - York electrification delay makes a mockery of Gideon's "Northern Powerhouse" rhetoric.

Why is that the north always suffers?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

I can see some logic in the suggestion of electrifying to Corby:

If you re-double Bedford - Kettering and electrify to Corby, you could service Corby, Kettering and Wellingborough with a contained EMU service - and probably make it a half-hourly pattern as well - it may even be an extension of existing TL services.

This would then speed up services from Leicester, Nottingham, Derby and Sheffield as they would only need to stop at Market Harborough and then one of the following to allow an interchange: Kettering, Wellingborough, Bedford, Luton or Luton Airport Pkway.

I suspect it would be Kettering - to maintain connections to / from Harborough & Kettering and one of the Luton stations - for airport traffic. For the others it would be a simple change.

Now that would make sense - and free up platform capacity at Bedford with TL trains 15-minute service always turning round there.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

From the debate this afternoon:

McLoughlin: 'I hope very much that the line(MML) will be electrified, but at present it is right for us to ensure that we secure the best value for money on the railways.'

His use of the word 'hope' doesnt encourage much confidence.

Considering what's happened in the past, one must wonder if electrification really can be value for money in the UK.

Mr McLoughlin:
Either the railways Minister or I will certainly meet my hon. Friend to discuss that issue in more detail. As I said earlier, the priority for the midland main line is still the provision of six trains an hour from St Pancras, which we can achieve by rebuilding and straightening the track at Market Harborough and remodelling the track at Derby station, but I still want to see the electrification of that line.

 

[47802]

So it seems that most of the improvements minus electrification will still go ahead. Can anyone answer how many bridges between Bedford and Corby have been rebuilt for electrification vs how many are left if enough gave been done then it may be best to extend the electrification to Corby and allow 222's to be displaced to replace HST's on the Nottingham fast services.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---


Aren't AT-300's limited to 100mph on Diesel though?

Electrification to Corby wouldn't free up enough Meridians to eliminate HST's, and as discussed elsewhere the top Speed of AT300's seems to be slightly unclear, and the idea that they can only do a 100mph on Diesel may be influenced by the fact that the original IEP's shouldn't really need to go above 100mph on Diesel, I expect that Hitachi would probably produce a 125mph on Diesel AT300 if needed.

 

[Haydn1971]

I may very well have overlooked a major announcement, but have any "HS3" proposals been confirmed as being more than a 125mph upgrade of Transpennine North with cut-offs, etc? I wouldn't be surprised based on this announcement if TPE electrification and "HS3" were roled into a single project, the former being expanded in scope and the latter reduced to reach a common middle ground, with a delivery date more in the region of 2025 - 2030.

I don't think that the DfT have that answer yet. The idea of HS3 sprung most recently from the challenge laid down by Osborne when he asked the question "what does the North want" the concept of One North built upon the aspirations of West/South Yorkshire and Manchester Transport Investment Funds. I recall some running around last year and a colleague drafting a paragraph pulling these aspirations into the One North document - a year on, we have journey time targets and a rough idea of costs - I'm not aware of who's been involved since, but I'd imagine it would be cloaked in the same secrecy as HS2 was. From the discussions in aware off, the idea is to build a "T" linking the two northern arms of HS2 such that journey times between Leeds, Sheffield and Manchester are similar - the only way I can see that happening is a Woodhead type route from a junction at Hoyland via an all turn junction with HS2, very roughly following the A616/A628 corridor with a new tunnel under the National Park and popping out near Hadfield, then dropping through East Manchester - I don't see how that can be easily done to give a fast onward link to Liverpool other than by a east-west tunnel under Manchester and Piccadilly.

 

[Dixie]

Wouldn't it be better just to abandon HS2 and get on with electrifying the rest of the network?

 

[Grumbler]

Wouldn't it be better just to abandon HS2 and get on with electrifying the rest of the network?

Hear hear - investment on existing routes should take priority.

 

[dviner]

Wouldn't it be better just to abandon HS2 and get on with electrifying the rest of the network?

Abandoning HS2 at this point in time wouldn't make a blind bit of difference in bringing forward the electrification of the rest of the UK Rail network.

Actually, it might even delay it.

 

[The Decapod]

Wouldn't it be better just to abandon HS2 and get on with electrifying the rest of the network?

Logic would suggest an answer of 'yes'.

I blame the government on this. They must have known the situation before the election but waited until afterwards to take any action.
Now that George Osborne's 'Northern Powerhouse' concept won the Tories some votes in the election, it's done its job and is likely to be forgotten.

 

[47802]

Logic would suggest an answer of 'yes'.

I blame the government on this. They must have known the situation before the election but waited until afterwards to take any action.
Now that George Osborne's 'Northern Powerhouse' concept won the Tories some votes in the election, it's done its job and is likely to be forgotten.

Totally disagree we should get on with HS2 and HS3 as a priority, abandon the current TPX route electrification for HS3, and re-scope any electrification of the MML as an after HS2 line.

The current TPX route is slow tedious Victorian relic, and HS2 has got to be good for the north not only for a London link but also to improve the current abysmal service to Birmingham and the Midlands from such as Leeds etc.

 

[RichmondCommu]

Totally disagree we should get on with HS2 and HS3 as a priority, abandon the current TPX route electrification for HS3, and re-scope any electrification of the MML as an after HS2 line.

This is exactly what the SNCF have done with their LGV routes, the result being that anything away from the LGV routes is now starved of investment and in a steady but irreversible decline. The hope here in the UK was that we would have brand new high speed lines and upgraded and electrified existing routes. Sadly that is now a pipe dream and never likely to happen. This is the day that our railway network started to go into tail spin.

 

[muddythefish]

.......meanwhile the £15bn road building programme announced before the election remains untouched.

 

[Dixie]

One thing about the North West electrification that really surprised me was the metal work itself. I'm not surprised its turning out to be so expensive because if you study the pictures in say the Liverpool Manchester thread you will see that the catenary is much more heavily engineered that that of any previous electrification, which, whilst it may make it last longer before replacement, must have cost a significant extra amount of cash compared pro rata to previous schemes.

 

[47802]

This is exactly what the SNCF have done with their LGV routes, the result being that anything away from the LGV routes is now starved of investment and in a steady but irreversible decline. The hope here in the UK was that we would have brand new high speed lines and upgraded and electrified existing routes. Sadly that is now a pipe dream and never likely to happen. This is the day that our railway network started to go into tail spin.

Well with so much of our Railway network to electrify I doubt that was ever going to happen, it seems to make sense to me as far as the main routes go, to concentrate on HS2 and HS3, and main routes which are not covered to any degree by these schemes such as the GWML.

Much larger chunks of our railway should of course been electrified years ago, but that didn't happen,

 

[Dixie]

.......meanwhile the £15bn road building programme announced before the election remains untouched.

I for one, despite having a keen interest in railways, mostly travel by car. I'd use it more for business if it wasn't so expensive and/or takes too long. For leisure it mostly just doesn't suit.

If you go to real railway using country such as Switzerland you will still find that they are investing much more in roads than we are.

 

[CdBrux]

.......meanwhile the £15bn road building programme announced before the election remains untouched.

is it over budget, delayed and short of specialist resources?
How does road vs rail investment compare compared to % journey miles made?

 

[Kettledrum]

Electrification to Corby wouldn't free up enough Meridians to eliminate HST's, and as discussed elsewhere the top Speed of AT300's seems to be slightly unclear, and the idea that they can only do a 100mph on Diesel may be influenced by the fact that the original IEP's shouldn't really need to go above 100mph on Diesel, I expect that Hitachi would probably produce a 125mph on Diesel AT300 if needed.

The current combination of rolling stock on the MML actually works quite well, and the HSTs tend to operate the services with less frequent stopping patterns

Arguably electrification would have brought less suitable stock with DVTs etc that have been discussed elsewhere.

Extending the life of some of the HSTs could be back on the agenda - after all there will be lots freed up on the GWML. Is fitting them with plug doors possible?

 

[Class 170101]

Extending the life of some of the HSTs could be back on the agenda - after all there will be lots freed up on the GWML. Is fitting them with plug doors possible?

GWML ones were heading to Scotrail I understand.

In any event they will need to keep some of their HSTs if the AT300 procurement doesn't get the go ahead from the DfT which I would suggest based on todays announcement is looking less likely.

 

[Dixie]

Extending the life of some of the HSTs could be back on the agenda - after all there will be lots freed up on the GWML. Is fitting them with plug doors possible?

Well Chiltern seem to have made a success of it. Some say they are and remain the most comfortable trains on the network