More Delay for HS2, and how should we proceed?

[Hadders]

I'm sorry but when the Channel Tunnel opened in the 1990s we in the North were promised direct trains to Europe ! Did it ever happen ? NO !
Went to London a couple of years back and saw the massive investment in new infrastructure and modern rolling stock when we in the North were still bouncing about on 30 year old Pacer units ! Huge amounts of cash spent since on Crossrail which I applaud as a success but why this objection to the North seeking a better part of the future investment ? HS 2 should go to Leeds or even Newcastle and beyond ? We all pay the same taxes !!!

The south has the oldest rolling stock in the country (313s) and the most expensive fares.
I must've missed all the new trains introduced in the north over the last few years.

I do agree that HS2 should be built in full but as far as London is concerned it is the goose that lays the golden egg for the UK. Much more tax raised in London than anywhere else. London doesn't compete with the likes of Birmingham, Newcastle, Edinburgh but with Paris, Berlin, New York etc.

 

[zwk500]

I'm sorry but when the Channel Tunnel opened in the 1990s we in the North were promised direct trains to Europe ! Did it ever happen ? NO !

This was due to border checks making the services uneconomic, which were more heavily supported in the North than in the South last time we had a major public vote on the issue, IIRC.

but why this objection to the North seeking a better part of the future investment ? HS 2 should go to Leeds or even Newcastle and beyond ? We all pay the same taxes !!!

While the North should have significant investment, London has a GDP of c.£503bn, or 22% of the UK economy. Manchester is the next largest at £82bn, West Mids at £76bn, West Yorks at £63bn, Glasgow at £53bn.
Edinburgh is £46bn, North East + North of Tyne together are £46bn as well.

Therefore your return on investment in London is likely to be c.10 times that of a pound invested in Tyne and Wear. (Yes, I'm aware GDP is a very crude measure by which to judge these things, but it demonstrates just how different a level London operates on).

 

[duncanp]

I'm sorry but when the Channel Tunnel opened in the 1990s we in the North were promised direct trains to Europe ! Did it ever happen ? NO !
Went to London a couple of years back and saw the massive investment in new infrastructure and modern rolling stock when we in the North were still bouncing about on 30 year old Pacer units ! Huge amounts of cash spent since on Crossrail which I applaud as a success but why this objection to the North seeking a better part of the future investment ? HS 2 should go to Leeds or even Newcastle and beyond ? We all pay the same taxes !!!

Another reason why there were no through Eurostar trains from North of London was the rise of the cheap low cost airlines in the early 1990s, which took away a lot of the potential custom.

I do think an oppotunity has been missed in not connecting HS2 to HS1 though, and building the necessary border control and security infrastructure into new build stations such as Birmingham Curzon Street.

Linking HS1 to HS2 would allow journeys such as Birmingham - Paris in under 4 hours, which makes it a viable proposition. I for one would certainly use Eurostar services from Birmingham Curzon Street to Lille, Paris, Brussels and Amsterdam

However, I do think that HS2 should be built, and not just between London and Birmingham either. It is about providing capacity for the rail network in the future, perhaps in 10 or 20 years time, and it needs political leaders of all parties to think about the long term, and not just winning the next election.

 

[zwk500]

I do think an oppotunity has been missed in not connecting HS2 to HS1 though, and building the necessary border control and security infrastructure into new build stations such as Birmingham Curzon Street.

The border controls increase the cost and operational complexity of the stations though. I think it would have been a mistake to include a full security suite and departure lounge for 1 or 2 platforms at Curzon Street.

Linking HS1 to HS2 would allow journeys such as Birmingham - Paris in under 4 hours, which makes it a viable proposition. I for one would certainly use Eurostar services from Birmingham Curzon Street to Lille, Paris, Brussels and Amsterdam

It's certainly a shame that greater provision was not made at OOC for the link in future. However today you have a 50' journey to London Euston, a 10' walk and 60' Check-in before your 2h to Brussels or 2h30 to Paris. So Curzon Street to Gare Du Nord would be 4h30, which is slower than flying but not completely uncompetitively so.

However, I do think that HS2 should be built, and not just between London and Birmingham either. It is about providing capacity for the rail network in the future, perhaps in 10 or 20 years time, and it needs political leaders of all parties to think about the long term, and not just winning the next election.

It's about providing capacity for 50 years, but good luck getting politicians to look further than 5 years.

 

[duncanp]

It's certainly a shame that greater provision was not made at OOC for the link in future. However today you have a 50' journey to London Euston, a 10' walk and 60' Check-in before your 2h to Brussels or 2h30 to Paris. So Curzon Street to Gare Du Nord would be 4h30, which is slower than flying but not completely uncompetitively so.

It's about providing capacity for 50 years, but good luck getting politicians to look further than 5 years.

I would hope that there is through ticketing from HS2 to Eurostar then, so that one ticket would cover Curzon Street to Gare Du Nord, with CIV protection and automatic booking onto the next train if the first one was delayed.

The ultimate decision about the scope and timetable for HS2 is going to have to be taken by whichever government is in office after the next general election, which looks like it will be Labour (or at least a Labour led coalition) at the moment.

If a lot of the "red wall" seats go back to Labour at the election, then that could increase pressure on Sir Keir Starmer to carry on and maintain the scope of HS2 in the long term, not least because the southern terminus of the line is in his constituency.

 

[zwk500]

I would hope that there is through ticketing from HS2 to Eurostar then, so that one ticket would cover Curzon Street to Gare Du Nord, with CIV protection and automatic booking onto the next train if the first one was delayed.

No idea about that one.

The ultimate decision about the scope and timetable for HS2 is going to have to be taken by whichever government is in office after the next general election, which looks like it will be Labour (or at least a Labour led coalition) at the moment.

It's one of those where deciding to build it will lock it in but it would be perfectly possible to kick the can down the road.

If a lot of the "red wall" seats go back to Labour at the election, then that could increase pressure on Sir Keir Starmer to carry on and maintain the scope of HS2 in the long term, not least because the southern terminus of the line is in his constituency.

Starmer is likely to get better electoral brownie points by cancelling/postponing extensions than by spending more money building the project.

 

[duncanp]

Starmer is likely to get better electoral brownie points by cancelling/postponing extensions than by spending more money building the project.

Not so sure about that.

At lot will depend on the make up of the Labour party after the next election, and whether the views of those who would like the project cancelled are more influential than those who want it to be continued.

Andy Burnham, for example, is on record as saying that he wants HS2 to come to Manchester, and his views are likely to have a big influence on whatever decision is made.

 

[Tezza1978]

Andy Burnham, for example, is on record as saying that he wants HS2 to come to Manchester, and his views are likely to have a big influence on whatever decision is made.

Yep - Burnham is extremely pro HS2 and NPR and would be extremely hostile about any descoping or cuts. He and Northern Labour MPs are not going to be ignored by Starmer. Particularly as Burnham is probably the number 1 contender for Starmer's job once he returns to Parliament as an MP

 

[Howardh]

Starmer is likely to get better electoral brownie points by cancelling/postponing extensions than by spending more money building the project.

Dammned if you do, dammed if you don't. Politically I'm not sure any party wants to take us through the rest of the 20's!! Anyway, Labour needs to give us a clear message now about what they will do with HS2 in government, by then I expect the building work to have gone too far to cancel, so Labour will be charged with getting as much of it done as cheaply (!!) as possible and that won't be easy.

If Labour were of a mind to scrap it competely, then the response could be that THEY have cost the country £b's by virtue of cancelling meaning no value for the money spent. I suppose it could be argued that a slower (than HS2) new line will improve capacity but how much could be shaved off the expected bill?? And where would it start, Birmingham, Crewe, Manchester?? The closer to London the less the value to the North and Scotland.

 

[duncanp]

Yep - Burnham is extremely pro HS2 and NPR and would be extremely hostile about any descoping or cuts. He and Northern Labour MPs are not going to be ignored by Starmer. Particularly as Burnham is probably the number 1 contender for Starmer's job once he returns to Parliament as an MP

This may concentrate Sir Keir Starmer's mind more than anything.

If Labour's first act in government was to cancel a major infrastructure project, what would that say about their plans for the rest of their term in office.

 

[zwk500]

This may concentrate Sir Keir Starmer's mind more than anything.

If Labour's first act in government was to cancel a major infrastructure project, what would that say about their plans for the rest of their term in office.

It would say the Labour intend to be financially responsible after a time of pretty much war footing at HMT. With inflation and therefore interest running high, now is an extremely expensive time to be committing to major capital expenditure. Given that capital expenditure is required across nearly every area of government (Hospitals & Social care, Schools, Police, borders, updating administration systems etc) and the Corona Virus response involved vast amounts of Borrowing alongside the Quantitative Easing, rail may well have to wait it's turn.

Of course, if Labour cancel HS2 then commit to a vast amount of road building, then it'd be very stupid. But if they shelved the outstanding parts of HS2 and committed to a program of Urban commuter rail electrification, many people would be quite understanding. Especially in Manchester, Birmingham and Bristol, which stand to gain the most from such a programme.

 

[najaB]

Given that capital expenditure is required across nearly every area of government (Hospitals & Social care, Schools, Police, borders, updating administration systems etc) and the Corona Virus response involved vast amounts of Borrowing alongside the Quantitative Easing, rail may well have to wait it's turn.

Which would make sense in terms of not starting any new projects, but not where cancelling a project that's already started is concerned.

 

[duncanp]

Which would make sense in terms of not starting any new projects, but not where cancelling a project that's already started is concerned.

This is the point about Sir Keir Starmer cancelling HS2 in favour of a program of urban commuter rail electrification, as suggested earlier.

If he were to propose cancelling HS2 he would have to have definite schemes in mind, which were fully costed, to placate his MPs from the North.

Vague promises would not be enough, and could lead to a challenge to Sir Keir Starmer's leadership by someone like Andy Burnham.

 

[zwk500]

Which would make sense in terms of not starting any new projects, but not where cancelling a project that's already started is concerned.

Indeed. So HS2 from Euston to Crewe (and likely Manchester) should be finished. But further upgrades beyond Wigan or to the EM could be dropped.

Vague promises would not be enough, and could lead to a challenge to Sir Keir Starmer's leadership by someone like Andy Burnham.

I think the chances of Burnham challenging Starmer's leadership directly after winning office back for the first time in 13/14 years over a spat about rail investment is extremely unlikely. Especially with the majority Labour is likely to be returned with.

 

[Tezza1978]

Of course, if Labour cancel HS2 then commit to a vast amount of road building, then it'd be very stupid. But if they shelved the outstanding parts of HS2 and committed to a program of Urban commuter rail electrification, many people would be quite understanding. Especially in Manchester, Birmingham and Bristol, which stand to gain the most from such a programme.

It won't surprise me if the Eastern Leg (which Labour has committed to) is deprioritised/delayed by Starmer - but building it to Manchester in full (and not as a 125mph Medium Speed 2!!) is absolutely nailed on IMO.

An NPR "Lite" -as outlined in the Integrated Rail Plan is of course far more likely than the version that Osborne originally envisaged /proposed given financial constraints

 

[Rail Ranger]

Andy Burnham is not returning to Parliament in a hurry. He is standing for another term as Mayor of Greater Manchester.

 

[MidlandMainlie]

It won't surprise me if the Eastern Leg (which Labour has committed to) is deprioritised/delayed by Starmer - but building it to Manchester in full (and not as a 125mph Medium Speed 2!!) is absolutely nailed on IMO.

An NPR "Lite" -as outlined in the Integrated Rail Plan is of course far more likely than the version that Osborne originally envisaged /proposed given financial constraints

I suspect Labour‘s manifesto will commit to delivering HS2 to Manchester but with regards to the Eastern Leg and NPR it will be a bit more ambiguous regarding exactly what form it will take.

Indeed. So HS2 from Euston to Crewe (and likely Manchester) should be finished. But further upgrades beyond Wigan or to the EM could be dropped.

I think the chances of Burnham challenging Starmer's leadership directly after winning office back for the first time in 13/14 years over a spat about rail investment is extremely unlikely. Especially with the majority Labour is likely to be returned with.

Andy Burnham is not returning to Parliament in a hurry. He is standing for another term as Mayor of Greater Manchester.

Still with MP‘s like Lisa Nandy and deputy Angela Rayner in greater Manchester it is a row he will want to avoid.

 

[paul1609]

Which would make sense in terms of not starting any new projects, but not where cancelling a project that's already started is concerned.

HS2 is rumoured to be 400% over budget currently, GWR electrification had reached 500% when the government called halt and started descoping the existing projects.

 

[Bonemaster]

Which would make sense in terms of not starting any new projects, but not where cancelling a project that's already started is concerned.

This is the same logic as chasing a loss.

Costs are so high the benefits are now lower than the costs. The more you spend the bigger the net loss to the country.

Cancelling will allow assets and land to be sold off to recover some of the spend. £11bn of the £18bn spent so far is on land so should be easily recoverable.

 

[12LDA28C]

This is the same logic as chasing a loss.

Costs are so high the benefits are now lower than the costs. The more you spend the bigger the net loss to the country.

Cancelling will allow assets and land to be sold off to recover some of the spend. £11bn of the £18bn spent so far is on land so should be easily recoverable.

Where has it been stated that HS2 will be cancelled? I must've missed that.

 

[najaB]

This is the same logic as chasing a loss.

Indeed. Which is why I mentioned that the key question is the costs that will be incurred irrespective of if it's finished or not (money that's already been spent or that will become due in termination fees), as it's entirely possible that the difference between those costs and what it would take to finish it will leave very little to spend on other projects.

Cancelling will allow assets and land to be sold off to recover some of the spend. £11bn of the £18bn spent so far is on land so should be easily recoverable.

So, have we spent £11B or is it 400% over the budget of £40.3B?

 

[class26]

Andy Burnham is not returning to Parliament in a hurry. He is standing for another term as Mayor of Greater Manchester.

can still stand for parliament. Boris did as mayor of London

 

[HSTEd]

Cancelling will allow assets and land to be sold off to recover some of the spend. £11bn of the £18bn spent so far is on land so should be easily recoverable.

I very much doubt this - the value of land sold will be far less than the cost of obtaining it by compulsory purchase.

In addition much of the land will be in rather worse condition than when it was purchased - with everything demolished and giant holes and reinforced concrete all over the place.

 

[matacaster]

I understand that there is brand new fleet of Spanish trains up for grabs for a pittance. Will they fit thru HS2 tunnels?
Remember it's all about capacity not speed!

 

[Xavi]

The descoping rumours of the last 24-hours are delusional Berkeley nonsense. END.

 

[Chester1]

The descoping rumours of the last 24-hours are delusional Berkeley nonsense. END.

There is a section of The Telegraph readership that laps up any anti HS2 article and any anti WFH article too. Ussually the same bitter people comment against HS2 using the argument that WFH has made it irrelevant and then write bitter comments underneath WFH articles.... The Telegraph will run a different variation of yesterdays article another dozen times this year.

 

[HSTEd]

I understand that there is brand new fleet of Spanish trains up for grabs for a pittance. Will they fit thru HS2 tunnels?
Remember it's all about capacity not speed!

They may not be suitable because HS2 has specced non-standard platforms, and the Spanish trains are likely built to comply with TSI platform heights.

Ultimately however, the political establishment is not really sold on the idea of high speed rail but cannot be seen to discard it.

So we end up in a half way house with huge amounts of money spent for virtually nothing to show for it.

 

[Starmill]

can still stand for parliament. Boris did as mayor of London

Technically possible, maybe. But honourable? Not really. Therefore fairly unlikely for a Labour politician.

 

[vic-rijrode]

... I do think an oppotunity has been missed in not connecting HS2 to HS1 though, and building the necessary border control and security infrastructure into new build stations such as Birmingham Curzon Street.

Linking HS1 to HS2 would allow journeys such as Birmingham - Paris in under 4 hours, which makes it a viable proposition. I for one would certainly use Eurostar services from Birmingham Curzon Street to Lille, Paris, Brussels and Amsterdam

I suggest we do a "Edward Watkin Grand Idea"!

Link HS2 at Old Oak Common to the Elizabeth Line, then link the Elizabeth Line to HS1 at Stratford.

Through running from Birmingham to Paris at a fraction of the cost of linking Euston to St Pancras.

Bob's your Uncle!

 

[matacaster]

"Northern Powerhouse Rail" could just mean the upgrade of the existing Trans-Pennine route.

Sure will!