"No new DMU orders in CP5"

[pemma]

The arguments for "No new DMU orders in CP5" we keep hearing are because we don't know how readily diesel will be available in 30 years time and that electrification will progress.

However, there have been lots of new DMU orders in Europe. Many of these have been in Eastern European countries who you'd perhaps think aren't as forward thinking or may not have the funds to invest in electrification.

Although, what's considered one of the most advanced European countries, Germany, have given approval to an order of 91 new DMUs costing €420 million: http://www.globalrailnews.com/2014/07/24/germany-approves-operation-of-new-regional-trains/

We have hundreds of diesel carriages produced in the early 1980s which are due for replacement and current approved electrification plans will only replace a small proportion of these.

Is there actually a genuine strong case against new DMUs in the UK or is it just government stalling and indecision over future plans that makes an order have poor viability at present?

 

[David Barrett]

Probably what you would expect. I would have thought that any doubts about the availability of diesel would have directed us to a massive and inclusive electrification programme leading to a situation where dependence on diesel was confined to perhaps a few very lightly trafficked long branch lines regardless of the economic orthodoxy associated with electrification.

Maybe the relevant departments are hoping that there will be a major breakthrough in technology and the problem will just go away.

 

[WatcherZero]

Well the Industry rolling stock plan of a couple of years ago predicted there would be a requirement for 300 carriages over the next couple of decades for lines that cant or wont be electrified as it life expired.

 

[NotATrainspott]

The arguments for "No new DMU orders in CP5" we keep hearing are because we don't know how readily diesel will be available in 30 years time and that electrification will progress.

However, there have been lots of new DMU orders in Europe. Many of these have been in Eastern European countries who you'd perhaps think aren't as forward thinking or may not have the funds to invest in electrification.

Although, what's considered one of the most advanced European countries, Germany, have given approval to an order of 91 new DMUs costing €420 million: http://www.globalrailnews.com/2014/07/24/germany-approves-operation-of-new-regional-trains/

We have hundreds of diesel carriages produced in the early 1980s which are due for replacement and current approved electrification plans will only replace a small proportion of these.

Is there actually a genuine strong case against new DMUs in the UK or is it just government stalling and indecision over future plans that makes an order have poor viability at present?

European DMUs are normally bog-standard designs that can be sold anywhere in the whole world and can be shipped abroad if no longer required; UK DMU designs can be regauged to be used in Ireland, Thailand and probably New Zealand but that's it. Also, I presume that the sorts of lines in Europe that are receiving these DMUs would be ones that are less likely to be electrified in the near future than the lines that would receive new DMUs in Britain. For example, much of the Northern DMU fleet is used to provide commuter services into the cities, which are duties that would be far better suited to standard EMUs and will transition to that once they are electrified in CP5 and CP6. Once we're in a position that all of those lines and other diesel islands are done, leaving only ones like the Settle & Carlisle or Durham Coast Line, then we would probably be in the same position as Europe is at the moment. At that point it would then be a question of whether the best option is Swiss-style total electrification (including battery/super capacitor EMUs with long neutral sections at difficult bits to electrify) or forever running self-powered units. In the second case it's not improbable to suggest that there would be a desire to run on electricity in city centres to reduce pollution further, so bi-mode is also very possible.

 

[Bantamzen]

It really all depends on if we are heading towards 100% electrification of the network, or if there are lines that may never see the wires (which I suspect is the case). There is a growing stock of DMUs that with all the will in the world will sooner rather than later succumb to the ravages of time. And whilst current & future electrification plans will release DMU capacity to other parts of the network, you still have to wonder if it's enough to cover the next 10-15 years. (A thought occurs to me here, how much of the nation's DMU stock is under, say 15 years old and how much is over?)

Perhaps the way the IEP project is going is the way forward, with bi-modal stock being made available in the future to TOCs with mixed lines. Is there a smaller, commuter version of these being offer by any train builders? If so it would at least mean that if diesel suddenly became harder to come by you would ramp up the electrification projects without having to worry about EMU stock being available.

 

[Class377/5]

The arguments for "No new DMU orders in CP5" we keep hearing are because we don't know how readily diesel will be available in 30 years time and that electrification will progress.

However, there have been lots of new DMU orders in Europe. Many of these have been in Eastern European countries who you'd perhaps think aren't as forward thinking or may not have the funds to invest in electrification.

Although, what's considered one of the most advanced European countries, Germany, have given approval to an order of 91 new DMUs costing €420 million: http://www.globalrailnews.com/2014/07/24/germany-approves-operation-of-new-regional-trains/

We have hundreds of diesel carriages produced in the early 1980s which are due for replacement and current approved electrification plans will only replace a small proportion of these.

Is there actually a genuine strong case against new DMUs in the UK or is it just government stalling and indecision over future plans that makes an order have poor viability at present?

Because we have a different guage which means compliant diesel don't fit in our stock but can fit in the European guage. Thats the basic different and why Europe continues to order DMU's while we can't.

 

[joeykins82]

It seems to me like an unintended but inevitable consequence of the ROSCO-led "marketplace" for rolling stock.

Imagine you're working for a ROSCO. You're putting together the financial appraisal for the financing of a new DMU order. You need to make a long term profit after you've adjusted for the financing costs, running costs, risk of damage and risk that the asset will go off-lease and stop producing income. That risk is highly unlikely for new build EMUs because of the projected continued growth in rail travel, but with a DMU there's the risk that the DfT's electrification programme will render your stock redundant before the end of its lifespan, so you price that in to the cost that you quote to the TOCs, inflating it beyond the point where the TOC considers it worthwhile to order outside of their franchise commitment. Even a TOC that's bidding for a franchise will likely err on the side of saying in their bid that they'd bolster their EMU services but won't touch the DMU ones, because they're worried that the cash-conscious DfT & Treasury will side with a bidder offering the cheap option over a TOC-led increase in capacity on diesel operated routes that has a higher subsidy (or lower premium).

 

[cf111]

Living in the far north of Scotland, this does make me wonder what the plans are for the future of lines like my local one. The 158s we have at the moment are lovely trains, especially after their refurbishment, but they won't last forever.

 

[pemma]

so bi-mode is also very possible.

I would have thought with the next TPE franchise likely to be a mixture of electric services (some of which may occasionally need to be diverted over non-electrified lines e.g. via Mirfield or Birghouse) and routes with a good case for electrification e.g. Manchester to Hull via Doncaster that ordering an entire new fleet of electric and bi-mode would have a good business case. It would also then leave a significant number of DMUs available for cascade.

Because we have a different guage which means compliant diesel don't fit in our stock but can fit in the European guage. Thats the basic different and why Europe continues to order DMU's while we can't.

So what's the solution for lines which won't be electrified? An expensive research project in to alternative methods of powering trains?

 

[physics34]

theyve really gotta replace Pacers soon...

 

[dosxuk]

I still believe we should be looking to introduce a successor to the 158/159 by the end of the decade, to take over the long distance DMU services, like the ex-Central Citylink, SWT, and numerous Northern and Scotrail services which are unlikely to be fully electrified by the mid-to-late 2020s. By investing in those routes, their existing stock can be cascaded to help replace the pacers.

It's going to be many decades before we are 100% electric, so a limited number of new DMUs now makes sense.

 

[Class377/5]

So what's the solution for lines which won't be electrified? An expensive research project in to alternative methods of powering trains?

Honestly I don't know. But its not likely to be cheap and I'd suggest your idea is properly correct.

 

[pemma]

I still believe we should be looking to introduce a successor to the 158/159 by the end of the decade, to take over the long distance DMU services, like the ex-Central Citylink, SWT, and numerous Northern and Scotrail services which are unlikely to be fully electrified by the mid-to-late 2020s. By investing in those routes, their existing stock can be cascaded to help replace the pacers.

A while back Network Rail recommended ordering new rolling stock for regional routes which will be suitable to cascade down to rural lines in the future if the regional routes get electrified, given the rural routes don't tend to have a good business case for new trains and that way there won't be surplus regional self powered trains if a lot of regional routes get electrified.

 

[59CosG95]

I still believe we should be looking to introduce a successor to the 158/159 by the end of the decade, to take over the long distance DMU services, like the ex-Central Citylink, SWT, and numerous Northern and Scotrail services which are unlikely to be fully electrified by the mid-to-late 2020s. By investing in those routes, their existing stock can be cascaded to help replace the pacers.

It's going to be many decades before we are 100% electric, so a limited number of new DMUs now makes sense.

I'd say electrify the Snow Hill and Chiltern Main Lines-this can release 168s, 170s and 172s for use elsewhere. 172/2s & 172/3s would be a very viable replacement for 158s & 159s, which could be cascaded elsewhere to remove the older Sprinters and Pacers. TV wiring will send the 165/166 fleet to the SW-that is undeniable now. Bimodal AT-200s would also be a good idea, if Hitachi could make one with intercity-style end doors.

 

[sprinterguy]

(A thought occurs to me here, how much of the nation's DMU stock is under, say 15 years old and how much is over?)

I suppose at its simplest we could consider the number of pre and post-privatisation DMUs in operation. There are probably a couple of misnomers in these totals, but to give a good sort of idea of the numbers that we are talking about:

Pre-privatisation DMUs: 754 trains (1545 carriages)
Post-privatisation DMUs: 300 trains (861 carriages)
Diesel Electric Multiple Units (Classes 220, 221 & 222): 105 trains (495 carriages)

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I still believe we should be looking to introduce a successor to the 158/159 by the end of the decade, to take over the long distance DMU services, like the ex-Central Citylink, SWT, and numerous Northern and Scotrail services which are unlikely to be fully electrified by the mid-to-late 2020s. By investing in those routes, their existing stock can be cascaded to help replace the pacers.
It's going to be many decades before we are 100% electric, so a limited number of new DMUs now makes sense.

There ought to be a good number of long-distance class 180/185/22x coming free in about 10 years time, after TP, MML and hopefully XC electrification (of core routes).
The DfT view is that new DMUs, for the numbers being talked about, were "unaffordable", compared to repeat orders for EMUs.

 

[pemma]

There ought to be a good number of long-distance class 180/185/22x coming free in about 10 years time, after TP, MML and hopefully XC electrification (of core routes).
The DfT view is that new DMUs, for the numbers being talked about, were "unaffordable", compared to repeat orders for EMUs.

With 185s I imagine the plan is to run mainly 6 car 185s* on Liverpool-Nottingham and Liverpool-Doncaster-Hull** which will free up Sprinters to run the non-electrified branches which aren't set to remain with TPE - Scarborough, Middlesbrough, Barrow, Cleethorpes and possibly Windermere.

* Network Rail's platform lengthening plans hint at 6 car 185s on the CLC line between Liverpool and Manchester.

** or possibly mainly 6 car 185s on a new Liverpool-Sheffield service if Manchester-Sheffield goes to 3tph, with a Manchester Airport-Doncaster-Hull service run by mainly 3 car 185s.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

With 185s I imagine the plan is to run mainly 6 car 185s* on Liverpool-Nottingham and Liverpool-Doncaster-Hull** which will free up Sprinters to run the non-electrified branches which aren't set to remain with TPE - Scarborough, Middlesbrough, Barrow, Cleethorpes and possibly Windermere.

* Network Rail's platform lengthening plans hint at 6 car 185s on the CLC line between Liverpool and Manchester.

** or possibly mainly 6 car 185s on a new Liverpool-Sheffield service if Manchester-Sheffield goes to 3tph, with a Manchester Airport-Doncaster-Hull service run by mainly 3 car 185s.

I was admittedly rather banking on TP South going all-electric in CP6, and maybe Derby-Birmingham-Bristol.
But essentially I don't think DfT is spending any time thinking about the DMU requirement at the moment.
Except maybe the Sussex/Kent needs...

 

[pemma]

I was admittedly rather banking on TP South going all-electric in CP6, and maybe Derby-Birmingham-Bristol.
But essentially I don't think DfT is spending any time thinking about the DMU requirement at the moment.
Except maybe the Sussex/Kent needs...

I'm not sure why but Liverpool South Parkway to Trafford Park seems to get overlooked each time electrification proposals come up.

 

[dosxuk]

There ought to be a good number of long-distance class 180/185/22x coming free in about 10 years time, after TP, MML and hopefully XC electrification (of core routes).

Except there's plenty of routes where the 158/159's can run, which are unsuitable for the 180/185/22x's, mainly down to sprinter differentials and platform lengths.

 

[Peter Sarf]

I fear it is likely that even with plenty of electrification we will be left with the wrong type of Diesel trains for the lines left un-electrified. I expect we will need small (1 or 2 coaches), not fuel hungry and not-fast diesel units. I think it is likely that the UK will have quite a few diesel trains (intercity) that are inappropriate for our needs (rural).

It also occurs to me that when it becomes obvious that more diesel trains are needed the emissions regulations will be too strict to allow any manufacturer to work on a small batch.

I hope alternative ways of powering trains (as in not-diesel and not-electric) for lesser lines can be developed.

Personally I hope for the maximum possible amount of electrification but lines like the far North lines won't get electrified for ages. In past decades Britain was a net exporter of oil. Nowadays we import more than we export so oil is a more expensive commodity for the UK. I hope that the electrification rolls on faster than this fact becomes painfully obvious.

 

[Haydn1971]

The DfT view is that new DMUs, for the numbers being talked about, were "unaffordable", compared to repeat orders for EMUs.

Has that actually been said by the DfT or is it just become an urban myth ?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Has that actually been said by the DfT or is it just become an urban myth ?

It was the basis of the business case for NW/TP electrification, and also the Valleys scheme.
Having committed umpteen £million on the electrification schemes, are you surprised they are reluctant to say "as you were" and agree to DMUs being ordered?
The Scotrail and upcoming Northern bids will demonstrate is there's an appetite for new DMU orders.
Personally I don't think folks have yet got their heads round the impact of the introduction of EMUs at NT/GW/TP and the consequent cascades.
In any case no DMUs except Pacers are heading to the scrap-line in the next 10 years.

 

[edwin_m]

So what's the solution for lines which won't be electrified? An expensive research project in to alternative methods of powering trains?

I think the answer would be a DEMU with an above-floor diesel engine. Putting the engine above floor gets round the problem of finding space for the emissions control kit, and as these are probably lightly-used routes the extra train length for the same passenger space doesn't matter too much. Such a unit would probably be a bi-mode or at the very least based on a standard EMU design and convertible to an EMU if there is no further use for it on diesel power. IEP does some of this and I believe it is one option for the Bombardier Aventra range (but for some reason there is virtually no information on their website!).

 

[Haydn1971]

It was the basis of the business case for NW/TP electrification, and also the Valleys scheme.

That's a no then ?

Having committed umpteen £million on the electrification schemes, are you surprised they are reluctant to say "as you were" and agree to DMUs being ordered?

No I wouldn't actually, the fact remains that despite the electrification and cascades, there's countless miles of route that isn't currently earmarked for wires, nor likely to be in the front of the queue for any recent DMU's against high profile routes on high passenger lines

The Scotrail and upcoming Northern bids will demonstrate is there's an appetite for new DMU orders.

Exactly my point above, Scotrail and Northern aren't hanging into the romance of 80's DMU's, they need shut because it's 35+ years old, knackered and isn't worth spending millions on for a few years of access compliance

Personally I don't think folks have yet got their heads round the impact of the introduction of EMUs at NT/GW/TP and the consequent cascades.

To be fair, the EMU's coming to Northern are getting on for 28 years old, the DMU's they will displace in Northernland, and the DMU's displaced from Great Western are 20-30 years old and the TPE 185's are desperately needed on TPE routes as people are currently hanging out the windows and sat on the roofs because TPE is that overcrowded - so yes, I have got my head around EMU cascades, the future isn't as rosy as some might portray

In any case no DMUs except Pacers are heading to the scrap-line in the next 10 years.

Even that's questionable given the brochures circulating of pacers with new seats, PID's and a wheelchair bog

We need a large order of new DMU's and we need them now

 

[physics34]

Back to loco hauled, thats what i say...

 

[petersi]

Not sure a large order but one could easily see the need for 150 2 and 3 car unites

 

[Haydn1971]

Not sure a large order but one could easily see the need for 150 2 and 3 car unites

Haha, by today's standards, that's large

I've not sat long enough to ponder sizes, the busy inter-urbans, should get wired over the next 10 years, so yes, probably 2-3 car length units would be ideal

 

[Bantamzen]

I suppose at its simplest we could consider the number of pre and post-privatisation DMUs in operation. There are probably a couple of misnomers in these totals, but to give a good sort of idea of the numbers that we are talking about:

Pre-privatisation DMUs: 754 trains (1545 carriages)
Post-privatisation DMUs: 300 trains (861 carriages)
Diesel Electric Multiple Units (Classes 220, 221 & 222): 105 trains (495 carriages)

So somewhere around twice as many pre-privatisiation DMUs. That's interesting, cheers!

I'm not sure why but Liverpool South Parkway to Trafford Park seems to get overlooked each time electrification proposals come up.

Me too, I'd think that was a banker to electrify, I'd love to understand the rational as to why it's overlooked.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

We need a large order of new DMU's and we need them now

I think you know that's nonsense.
The DfT is trying to wring the last farthing out of the DMU (mainly Regional) franchises, and ordering a vague number of expensive new DMUs with an uncertain life is not where they're at.
It's called "sweating the assets".
Schemes that might get a hearing are the conversion of D78 LU stock, and a low-cost loco-hauled solution with redundant Mk3/4s.
Meanwhile the TOCs have to get their heads round "maximising the utilisation of new electric routes".