In my view, the Liverpool-Norwich service is too long and tries to satsify too many differing markets. Nottingham is a natural dividing point, as the practice of terminating there in the event of late-running shows. Also, I wonder if it is necessary to go through to Liverpool - are there that many through passengers?
Agreed. It'd be a reasonable "one a day" service from the time when BR tried to provide lots of random daily links, but the railways don't have resources to spare on those kind of routes at the moment (given the obvious capacity problems they have).
So in an ideal world, I'd run Norwich-Nottingham [possibly under an E Anglia franchise], and a Nottingham-Derby-Totley South curve- Stockport-Manchester service by EMT, meeting the request for a faster Nottingham-Manchester journey and opening new possibilities from Derby, which apart from project Rio has not had a through service to Manchester since the Midland line through the Peak was closed.
This would be something similar to the temporary service operated when the Erewash Valley was modernised a while back, [but then the Nottingham-Liverpools passed slowly through Derby - a wasted opportunity if there ever was one.] As then, Sheffield-Manchester could remain half-hourly with the TPE service being supplemented by an EMT shuttle, and if 3 tph creates capacity problems at Stockport, could not the shuttle be an extension of the Manchester-Hazel Grove stopper, thus creating a regular Hazel Grove-Sheffield service? Then if the existing Leeds-Nottingham service were to be supplemented by extending the present Leeds-Barnsley-Sheffield fast service to Nottingham, Sheffield-Nottingham would remain half-hourly too.
That would leave Manchester - Liverpool to TPE and Northern.
I appreciate this would not please through pax from Liverpool and Manchester -Peterborough and beyond, but are there that many anyhow, and would they not go via London for a quicker and more comfortable journey? It would however, open-up a new market from Derby and create a faster and more robust service from Nottingham-Manchester, which, if not also trying to cater for the Nottingham-Sheffield and Sheffield-Manchester flows, would go some way to easing the overcrowding on the existing service.
There are bound to be glaring problems with this suggestion, so I now sit back for you to point them out to me!!
A few comments (not intended as criticism, just my opinion):
1. If you split the Norwich - Nottingham, I'd be tempted to put this service alongside Skeg - Nottingham, Peterborough - Lincoln - Doncaster, Sheffield - Lincoln, the Barton Line and Sheffield - Retford - Cleethorpes in a Lincolnshire "micro" franchise, or to be bolted onto East Coast (at the next franchise change). The railways in Lincolnshire have long been run for the benefit of people far away (e.g. Central's Grimsby - Chester or Skeg - Manchester Airport), don't connect with ECML services very well etc. Putting all of these together would be a step forward (e.g. the new TOC would have an incentive to connect to ECML services at Peterborough/ Grantham/ Retford/ Doncaster). But that's maybe another story for another thread!
2. From memory, Derby wasn't served on "Project Rio", the trains were slow from London to Leicester (in the path of the Nottingham Turbostar) and then direct via the Erewash Valley/ Hope Valley to Manchester - I don't think many of them even stopped at Chesterfield.
3. There are already four passenger trains an hour from Derby to Chesterfield (plus freight paths, plus the hourly Matlock stopper at the southern end), so I'm not sure you'd find room for a Nottingham - Derby - Chesterfield - Manchester service. Of course, if the Matlock - Stockport line were to be reopened, we'd be talking
4. If you are saving Nottingham - Manchester passengers time by avoiding Sheffield, and running a replacement Sheffield - Manchester service then the logical thing would be to tag the Nottingham service on to the Hazel Grove stopper and let Sheffield keep it's "fast" service. Plus you'd have better connections from Buxton to Chesterfield/Derby that way (same county, but rubbish rail links!).
5. Then again, I'd be tempted to stop all services at Hazel Grove, partly for connections to Buxton, partly because it's a busy place (plus Sheffield - Buxton is a popular journey too)
6. Sadly you can't make an omelette without breaking eggs, and any change to this service will result in some complaints (even if it's "but, but, but you're getting rid of the essential Ely to Warrington service that I used five years ago). I think you're on the right lines by concentrating resources on the Sheffield/ Manchester/ Nottingham "triangle" and leaving the Norwich side for another TOC though