Omicron variant and the measures implemented in response to it

[BRX]

Hospital admissions are largely flat compared to last week. I've been told many times to wait for the lag. Omicron has been well seeded here for over 2 weeks. We are repeatedly told that there are many more cases than have been sequenced. So how long do I have to wait?

Omicron has only really started to become visible in case numbers in the past few days, and only in some places, mainly London. So I would expect that we might see signals in London hospital data in the next week or two. Here's what London looks like up until 2 days ago. We wait and see how that upwards curve develops.

 

[quantinghome]

Whitty did also say the following during the press conference.....

"I'm afraid we're also seeing the inevitable increase in hospitalisations up by 10% nationally, week-on-week, and up by almost a third in London."

Am I interpreting the figures incorrectly or is he lying?

@BRX beat me to it.

 

[Smidster]

Some clubs have even taken more drastic measures - Carlisle United have reduced their capacity to 9,999, to avoid the need for vaccine passports!

Although in fairness the last time they had an attendance over 10k was Feb 2019 when they had a big promotion on tickets.

We do need to be really careful interpreting hospiral numbers over next few weeks - it is inevitable they will increase but some of that will just be because there is more Covid around.

Actually think the base message from Whitty is sensible - in some places there is lots of a illness spreading so consider your risk and what matters to you - We just have to hope that holds.

 

[takno]

Whitty did also say the following during the press conference.....



Am I interpreting the figures incorrectly or is he lying?

There's so many figures to pick from with hospitals. There are figures including anybody turning up at A&E, anybody who actually got admitted, the with-Covids, the from-Covids, the currently admitted (so ignoring the immediately-discharged), the people in intensive care, the ventilated. I'm almost certain that one of them will be up by a third in London

 

[Bantamzen]

There's so many figures to pick from with hospitals. There are figures including anybody turning up at A&E, anybody who actually got admitted, the with-Covids, the from-Covids, the currently admitted (so ignoring the immediately-discharged), the people in intensive care, the ventilated. I'm almost certain that one of them will be up by a third in London

Aren't the admissions "with covid" counted at the same time each day, 8am IIRC? So someone could arrive at A&E, at 9pm, be admitted overnight whilst testing positive, be discharged at 9am the next day and still be counted by NHS England as an admission.

One thing I have learnt in many years of public sector working, especially around data analysis is that statistics are often like cherries...

 

[farleigh]

Really only 200 people in hospital with suspected Covid in London?

Thought it would be much higher.

 

[quantinghome]

Really only 200 people in hospital with suspected Covid in London?

Thought it would be much higher.

Daily admissions, not the total number.

 

[farleigh]

Daily admissions, not the total number.

Yeah - thanks.

Need glasses

 

[MikeWM]

We do need to be really careful interpreting hospiral numbers over next few weeks - it is inevitable they will increase but some of that will just be because there is more Covid around.

Indeed - it is vital at this point to be able to distinguish between 'with' and 'of'. We're rarely give any actual indication of which is which, however.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Whitty did also say the following during the press conference.....



Am I interpreting the figures incorrectly or is he lying?

NHS England have good data daily (Mon-Fri) what it shows over last 7 days on total hospitalised is

ENGLAND	104%​
East of England	109%​
London	118%​
Midlands	104%​
North East and Yorkshire	94%​
North West	103%​
South East	95%​
South West	99%​

So it does reflect a hefty spike up in London but variable nationally but perhaps only a matter of time before other regions catch up.

 

[BRX]

Aren't the admissions "with covid" counted at the same time each day, 8am IIRC? So someone could arrive at A&E, at 9pm, be admitted overnight whilst testing positive, be discharged at 9am the next day and still be counted by NHS England as an admission.

One thing I have learnt in many years of public sector working, especially around data analysis is that statistics are often like cherries...

Everyone can argue endlessly about whether the criteria used, under- or over-count the "real" numbers. But what matters is the direction of travel. Whatever the criteria, if those numbers start increasing then that's still an indication there could be a problem on the way.

If we know that hospitals started to struggle, once a certain measure based on whatever criteria reached a certain magnitude, and we can see that the same measure, using the same criteria, is approaching a similar magnitude again, then it's entirely reasonable to take it seriously. That is not cherry picking.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Everyone can argue endlessly about whether the criteria used, under- or over-count the "real" numbers. But what matters is the direction of travel. Whatever the criteria, if those numbers start increasing then that's still an indication there could be a problem on the way.

If we know that hospitals started to struggle, once a certain measure based on whatever criteria reached a certain magnitude, and we can see that the same measure, using the same criteria, is approaching a similar magnitude again, then it's entirely reasonable to take it seriously. That is not cherry picking.

Peak hospitalisation in the UK was 39k in January this year currently at 7.5k compared to 16k at same period last year. Anyhow this is the metric to watch over the next few days but we should also be wary of the amount of people that will now be self isolating which is likely to run at far higher rates than previous waves as this will reduce the capability of the NHS to staff hospitals.

 

[plugwash]

If we know that hospitals started to struggle, once a certain measure based on whatever criteria reached a certain magnitude, and we can see that the same measure, using the same criteria, is approaching a similar magnitude again, then it's entirely reasonable to take it seriously. That is not cherry picking.

The tricky bits are twofold.

The first is defining "stuggling", by some measures the NHS has been struggling for years.

The second is distinguishing fluctuations from trends.

Since late July Hospitalizations have been fluctuating with no clear trend. The "7 day average" figure rose to 913 on the 23rd July, dropped to 766 on the 2nd August, rose again to 1019 on the 6th September, dropped again to 731 on the 28th September, rose again to 1053 on the 20th October, dropped to 759 on the 25th november. The most 7 day average listed is 854 for the 8th December, that is still closer to the previous dip than to the previous peak.

By comparison, last year hospitalisations rose to 1781 on the 13th of November, dropped to 1385 on the 29th of November, then rose again until a peak of 4234 on the 9th of January. The figure was 1642 for the 8th of December last year. In other words, last winter's dip was higher than the highest peak so far this winter and the most recent figures are better than the figures for the same date last year by a factor of nearly two.

I presume the powers that be are hoping that the booster programme, plus the newly available treatments, plus the reported lower severity of omicron will allow them to keep hospitalizations at a level they consider manageable (which may well be different from what NHS staff think is manageable) despite the inevitable rise in cases.

 

[Bantamzen]

Everyone can argue endlessly about whether the criteria used, under- or over-count the "real" numbers. But what matters is the direction of travel. Whatever the criteria, if those numbers start increasing then that's still an indication there could be a problem on the way.

If we know that hospitals started to struggle, once a certain measure based on whatever criteria reached a certain magnitude, and we can see that the same measure, using the same criteria, is approaching a similar magnitude again, then it's entirely reasonable to take it seriously. That is not cherry picking.

Without deeper analysis, the headline "with covid" admission figures are just that. How many people going into hospitals are doing so purely because of serious ill effects from covid? How many would be going in anyway? How long are people being admitted for? How many are going in because of previous covid measures?

The NHS has had almost 2 years to work out how best to deal covid in hospitals, and yet their response has been simply to shut the doors to everyone else & blame the public for not doing enough to "save the NHS". And to help keep that messaging alive, the government and NHS bosses routinely trot out the scariest looking numbers at the seemingly daily press conferences or news channel interviews. But the real problem here is in how the NHS is funded and managed, covid & all the statistics around it have become a handy cover for bosses and politicians alike.

 

[adc82140]

Tim Spector from the Zoe project has been on Sky News:

Professor Tim Spector, scientist and founder of the Zoe COVID study app, says the majority of people testing positive with the Omicron variant have "cold-like symptoms".

"And they do not have the classical triad of COVID symptoms of fever, loss of smell and taste and a persistent cough.

"So it's slowly merged into a symptomatic, milder condition that looks just like a severe cold to many people. And I think this is what people need to know about."

It's from the live feed, so I can't link.

Prof Spector is normally quite pessimistic, so I find this encouraging, and according to a junior government minister doing the TV rounds today, there are still only 10 or 11 in hospital with Omicron. However she did a bit of a Raab at first and claimed there were 774, which is in fact the total covid admissions yesterday, not any measure of people in hospital.

 

[Tracked]

I'm thinking the surge in numbers we're going to continue to see is partly due to all the tests panic-ordered as a result of Boris' Sunday Night Fever (and the messaging over recent weeks) and that the true figure's always been under-reported to some extent, looking at the 7-day figures there's:

404,869 Cases, up 65,008 (19% increase)
8,700,982 Tests Done, up 1,149,990 (15% increase)

There's no figures available - as far as I know - that show amounts of people testing positive with no/mild symptoms, I'd be interested to see what proportion of the increase is down to better data gathering (although doubtless Omicron is playing a part too).

 

[DelayRepay]

On testing, I understand that if you test positive using an LFT, but then test negative with a PCR, you are removed from the figures. It would be interesting to know how many of the 78k reported yesterday were LFTs which go on to test negative through PCR. Not sure that information is readily available though.

 

[yorkie]

This forum does not have any well informed discussions on Covid at all.

What other forum has such well researched posts, containing numerous citations? We had been saying on this forum that endemic equilibrium, rather than elimination, would be the end game for long before most other media sources realised this. We've consistently questioned incorrect modelling. There are many well researched posts on here with links to sources that have been proven right time and time again.

Yes some people make ill informed posts, and I question them when I can!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 16 Dec 2021 ==

....There's no figures available - as far as I know - that show amounts of people testing positive with no/mild symptoms...

The vast majority of 'cases' are mild or asymptomatic.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 16 Dec 2021 ==

The BBC still says it's not permitted to leave hotels early: (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59670486)

The same article reports people leaving with hotel staff "tried to stop her leaving, but she'd walked out".

A shambles! Glad I'm not involved personally. And it's clearly not being sorted out "as quickly as possible" but perhaps instead "as quickly as our creaking bureaucracy permits".

Looks like there has been yet another U-turn

 

[cuccir]

Interesting study here suggesting that Omicron replicates 70% faster in the bronchi, which are the branching tubes from the trachia into the lungs, but 10% slower in the lungs themselves, than Delta. Note that the work is in peer review and that this is a press release, but it would explain why Omicron appears to be more transmissible but less likely to lead to severe disease, as it is damage to the lungs which is obviously the most troubling.

 

[jfollows]

Looks like there has been yet another U-turn

BBC radio was reporting last night that people were being allowed to leave and that they would be refunded their payment for the days remaining in their stay. Perhaps they won't refund people who left earlier in the day? The lady they interviewed was calm but said it would be nice if they got the entire cost of the quarantine hotel refunded, of course.

From https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59670486:

People have been advised they are required to stay until formally told they can leave. Guests will be asked for details of their onward destinations for test and trace.

Speaking outside a vaccination centre, Mr Javid said: "Anyone that is in a quarantine hotel that has not tested positive, I want to see them leave those hotels today and they will get a refund for the portion of their hotel... that they have not used."

 

[Towers]

What other forum has such well researched posts, containing numerous citations? We had been saying on this forum that endemic equilibrium, rather than elimination, would be the end game for long before most other media sources realised this. We've consistently questioned incorrect modelling. There are many well researched posts on here with links to sources that have been proven right time and time again.

Yes some people make ill informed posts, and I question them when I can!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 16 Dec 2021 ==

Indeed. I come here primarily as somebody with an interest in rail, but this particular thread - and one other elsewhere - are my "go to" destinations for a bit of Covid chat or a quick update on developments. This thread is particularly polite and respectful on what is a contentious topic, moreso than the other that I frequent.

We all get a tad passionate at times, me included, but this is a place that generally avoids being insulting, and is sufficiently moderated if any of us do get a bit salty!

@yorkie in particular deserves our recognition for wading through this thread on a daily basis, and it's also nice to see a Mod feel able to freely contribute as well as just moderate!

Anyway, enough from me on that!

 

[jfollows]

I find it helpful to read diverse views from people, especially including those I don't agree with, because sometimes they help me reset my compass and sometimes just let me reflect on opposing views, and equally I don't take offence when people disagree with my views. I just don't take it personally or get upset by anything here because I know the majority of comment is well meant.

 

[Simon11]

I find it helpful to read diverse views from people, especially including those I don't agree with, because sometimes they help me reset my compass and sometimes just let me reflect on opposing views, and equally I don't take offence when people disagree with my views. I just don't take it personally or get upset by anything here because I know the majority of comment is well meant.

Spot on, the media are not presenting covid in a balanced light and thus having some alternative views of looking at the data and reports from here can balance your judgement.

 

[43066]

The NHS has had almost 2 years to work out how best to deal covid in hospitals, and yet their response has been simply to shut the doors to everyone else & blame the public for not doing enough to "save the NHS". And to help keep that messaging alive, the government and NHS bosses routinely trot out the scariest looking numbers at the seemingly daily press conferences or news channel interviews. But the real problem here is in how the NHS is funded and managed, covid & all the statistics around it have become a handy cover for bosses and politicians alike.

Absolutely. Two years into this thing, and one might reasonably expect the NHS has by now built substantial additional capacity to deal with Covid related hospitalisations. Especially given money has essentially been no object. Yet strangely we never seem to hear any discussion of why this evidently hasn’t happened.

That should be a national scandal, yet the senior echelons of the NHS still seem to think the public should be restricted to make the health services lives easier! Far more scrutiny and accountability is needed.

It has long been clear that the NHS is completely unfit for purpose and needs fundamental reform, along the lines of less centralised healthcare models adopted elsewhere in Europe. Yet it’s such a political football that no politicians are willing to grasp the nettle, so it will never improve…

 

[Simon11]

Absolutely. Two years into this thing, and one might reasonably expect the NHS has by now built substantial additional capacity to deal with Covid related hospitalisations. Especially given money has essentially been no object. Yet strangely we never seem to hear any discussion of why this evidently hasn’t happened.

That should be a national scandal, yet the senior echelons of the NHS still seem to think the public should be restricted to make the health services lives easier! Far more scrutiny and accountability is needed.

It has long been clear that the NHS is completely unfit for purpose and needs fundamental reform, along the lines of less centralised healthcare models adopted elsewhere in Europe. Yet it’s such a political football that no politicians are willing to grasp the nettle, so it will never improve…

You should work for BBC!

So frustrating when people like Laura from the BBC and other journalists wastes asking questions to the PM, asking about why more restrictions are not being implemented...... yet these types of questions are not answered and data shows that beds have been falling for several decades.

The key issues is staffing and whatever you do, it will take at least +3 years to properly sort that issue out.

 

[MikeWM]

The key issues is staffing and whatever you do, it will take at least +3 years to properly sort that issue out.

Yes, but I fail to see why in 21 months you couldn't train up a large army of people - those who were on furlough for most of the time, perhaps - specifically with the skills required in how to deal with Covid patients. Actually I don't see why that couldn't have been done for last winter, never mind this one.

We're continually told how serious a situation this is, and yet the sort of things that would usually be done, eg. in wartime, just haven't even been attempted.

 

[Eyersey468]

Absolutely. Two years into this thing, and one might reasonably expect the NHS has by now built substantial additional capacity to deal with Covid related hospitalisations. Especially given money has essentially been no object. Yet strangely we never seem to hear any discussion of why this evidently hasn’t happened.

That should be a national scandal, yet the senior echelons of the NHS still seem to think the public should be restricted to make the health services lives easier! Far more scrutiny and accountability is needed.

It has long been clear that the NHS is completely unfit for purpose and needs fundamental reform, along the lines of less centralised healthcare models adopted elsewhere in Europe. Yet it’s such a political football that no politicians are willing to grasp the nettle, so it will never improve…

I agree

 

[Freightmaster]

So frustrating when people like Laura from the BBC and other journalists wastes asking questions to the PM, asking about why more restrictions are not being implemented...... yet these types of questions are not answered and data shows that beds have been falling for several decades.

The key issues is staffing and whatever you do, it will take at least +3 years to properly sort that issue out.

Agreed, but we are already almost 2 years into this pandemic and I get the impression
that little or no progress in 'fast tracking' recruitment/training has been made to date.



edit: MikeWM made a similar post while I was typing this - great minds think alike!






MARK

 

[Eyersey468]

Agreed, but we are already almost 2 years into this pandemic and I get the impression
that little or no progress in 'fast tracking' recruitment/training has been made to date.



edit: MikeWM made a similar post while I was typing this - great minds think alike!






MARK

I also get this impression

 

[yorksrob]

The problem is, Whitty is only stating the obvious. I feel confident that If I do get covid, the vaccine will do it's job, It's just the requirement to self isolate that can screw things up.

I know some quiet pubs that I can go in and not mix too much. It's just that last train from Leeds that's always rammed and always only two carriages. I need a droplight to stand next to.