Omicron variant and the measures implemented in response to it

[Bayum]

Because despite Scotland and Wales going with more restrictions they still
had higher cases than that of England which was pretty much back to pre 2020 levels of normality from July to November.

Interesting though because the argument the whole way through has always been that England and particularly the southern counties have been ahead of the curve for two-three weeks. The data from December shows Scotland had a rate of 100-199 per 100,000 whilst the vast majority of Southern England was 4-800 and in some areas of England 800-1599. This idea that restrictions have 'failed' because of this is false. You can't equate either - are cases in Scotland and Wales behind England because they had restrictions? Is the data following the trend that we seemed to see in the first and second peaks?

The data shows that England has a much higher admission count for patients in hospital compared to the other devolved nations, 2041, 51 and 39 for England, Wales and N. Ireland respectively on the 6th January. Throughout the month of November and December, England had a far higher rate of hospitalisation.

 

[BRX]

Are you suggesting that the restrictions in place in Wales, Scotland. France don't change behaviour?

Because they have greater restrictions, aimed at changing behaviour, than England.

I am glad you agree with me that such restrictions are not warranted.


I quoted from a source, as did @kristiang85 ; if you disagree with those sources, that's your prerogative.

Yes voluntary behaviour modifications among those who are most vulnerable will be making some difference. That said, can you be sure that such people don't make such modifications when the NHS is under similar (or more!) pressure due to 'flu? If the answer is yes then that demonstrates the lack of logic applied by such people.

As far as I am aware you are supportive of restrictions:
But maybe you've revised your position since then?

If you made it clearer what you are advocating, we'd be able to avoid going round in circles and talking at cross-purposes.

You're avoiding addressing my basic point by throwing a whole load of questions at me as a distraction. To repeat myself:

The only point I was making was about your dodgy logic. You claimed that the NHS is currently under similar pressure to what it has been under in previous winters. Let's just accept that premise for the sake of argument. But then you use this to support your belief that this means all of our current behaviour modifications have no effect. This just doesn't make sense - you can't draw that conclusion. You can only draw that conclusion if you start out by saying that the current pressure on the NHS is the same as it would be without all of the current behaviour modifications we are seeing. This is circular reasoning.

You don't need to know my opinions on what level of restrictions should be used in what situation or what level of effect I think they are having in different places in order to respond to this. I'm pointing out what appears to be some nonsensical reasoning on your part.

As of today there have been one hundred and thirty five million vaccinations. Are you an anti-vaxxer? Do you deny that vaccines against covid significantly reduce hospitalisation and death? Why not mention them in your long, rambling screed about behaviour change?

No I'm not an anti-vaxxer - of course vaccination works. Just like it works in every flu season. I don't believe @yorkie is an anti-vaxxer, so the effectiveness of vaccines didn't seem relevant to the particular point I was making. So why would I mention them?

 

[johntea]

A beyond ridiculous tweet by Northern...

(Currently, we don't have enough people on our trains wearing face coverings when they should)

How on earth can they justify such a statement?!

Currently, we don't have enough people on our trains wearing face coverings when they should. Face coverings help protect you, your loved ones and each other. Let's be considerate - especially when respecting those who are exempt from wearing a face covering.

 

[Berliner]

I must admit, I don't recall a time when Scotland had less stringent restrictions than England, although that may be in part due to my prreoccupation with what was going on here at the time.

I can remember disagreeing with the concept of a circuit breaker lockdown last year, but I don't recall Sturgeon explicitly coming out against one.

She didn't really need to come out against it...we simply didn't have one. At the time all we had was the levels system which was far from a lockdown as within your own council area you could move freely, albeit some places had very limited hospitality, some areas, such as the borders, had very few restrictions on bars etc. I seem to recall you could visit other homes at the time, or at the very least, you could in certain areas which had low virus rates.

I remember at the time, the exact month escapes me, but it was around October/November. England announced the circuit breaker stay at home orders, Wales did too, only Drakford imposed it as of midnight that day and England had a few days to prepare. This was the same time that anything deemed non essential was banned from sale in Welsh shops and covered up with sheets. That was another thing we didn't ever get in Scotland.

 

[yorksrob]

She didn't really need to come out against it...we simply didn't have one. At the time all we had was the levels system which was far from a lockdown as within your own council area you could move freely, albeit some places had very limited hospitality, some areas, such as the borders, had very few restrictions on bars etc.

I remember at the time, the exact month escapes me, but it was around October/November. England announced the circuit breaker stay at home orders, Wales did too, only Drakford imposed it as of midnight that day and England had a few days to prepare. This was the same time that anything deemed non essential was banned from sale in Welsh shops and covered up with sheets. That was another thing we didn't ever get in Scotland.

Well England definitely went into a sort of lockdown before Christmas 2020 because the pubs shut. However, as I recall, we went into the tier system, so although we weren't supposed to go out outside of our tier, we were allowed to move around but no meeting indoors. After Christmas we had a full lockdown.

That's what I remember anyway !

 

[Berliner]

Well England definitely went into a sort of lockdown before Christmas 2020 because the pubs shut. However, as I recall, we went into the tier system, so although we weren't supposed to go out outside of our tier, we were allowed to move around but no meeting indoors. After Christmas we had a full lockdown.

That's what I remember anyway !

Yes after Christmas we had the full lockdown again, but England and Wales had that extra little one before the festive period which we definitely did not. It's the one time I can think of where restrictions in Scotland were less harsh than those in the rest of GB. I'm not sure if NI had a lockdown at the time or not.

 

[yorksrob]

Yes after Christmas we had the full lockdown again, but England and Wales had that extra little one before the festive period which we definitely did not. It's the one time I can think of where restrictions in Scotland were less harsh than those in the rest of GB. I'm not sure if NI had a lockdown at the time or not.

Personally, I think a circuit breaker was talked about in England, but we never went into it because everyone just went into tier three/four instead. That's how I remember it anyway.

 

[yorkie]

You're avoiding addressing my basic point by throwing a whole load of questions at me as a distraction. To repeat myself:



You don't need to know my opinions on what level of restrictions should be used in what situation or what level of effect I think they are having in different places in order to respond to this. I'm pointing out what appears to be some nonsensical reasoning on your part.

What exactly did I say that is "nonsensical" in your opinion? Can you be precise? Did I say "all of our current behaviour modifications have no effect"? Rather than type out what you are objecting to, can you quote it?

It sounds to me like you take issue with some of what I've said, but you are very cagey and evasive about what exactly you're objecting to, and what your alternative is. You asked me what claims you made and why you thought I thought you were calling for restrictions; I answered that by pointing to your earlier post; you've evaded the question regarding whether you still maintain that view or if you believe the latest data no longer justifies the restrictions you wanted.

No I'm not an anti-vaxxer - of course vaccination works. Just like it works in every flu season. I don't believe @yorkie is an anti-vaxxer, so the effectiveness of vaccines didn't seem relevant to the particular point I was making. So why would I mention them?

I think the argument @big_rig is making is that you may be underestimating the effectiveness of vaccines by giving credit instead to 'behaviour modifications'.

I'm trusting the vaccines and not modifying my behaviour in any way; do I think some are modifying their behaviour? Yes, for sure, but there is a huge difference between the modifications enforced by different places, and yet there appears to be no correlation between such measures and case rates, and therefore it is very questionable whether such modifications are having much, if any, effect on the spread of Omicron.

It's unclear how much behaviour you think is being modified, or how much effect you think that may have, so it's difficult to support or discredit your argument, so this is all a bit of a pointless debate, as we're not going to get anywhere with it.

Personally, I think a circuit breaker was talked about in England, but we never went into it because everyone just went into tier three/four instead. That's how I remember it anyway.

There was a so-called "circuit breaker" (it's covered in previous threads) but, apart from being denied the opportunity to keep myself healthy by playing sports and denying the ability to socialise in the pub, it made zero difference to me. It probably made zero difference to you except it was a month without going to the pub. All it achieved was a delay in infections.

A beyond ridiculous tweet by Northern...

(Currently, we don't have enough people on our trains wearing face coverings when they should)

How on earth can they justify such a statement?!

View attachment 108477

It's not justifiable. Don't forget Northern are subject to FOI, so they could be asked some awkward questions. Hopefully someone will do that.

They're an absolute disgrace of a company. I see they even have the cheek to display the cold heart symbol (which is used on Twitter by hardline pro-restriction lobbyists)

Bizarrely their tweet includes a video showing how to make an ineffective, flimsy loose fitting cloth mask, and passengers wearing such masks, and yet their tweet says such coverings "help protect you, your loved ones and each other"; this is demonstrably false as detailed in previous threads; if Northern are going to make such a claim, they need to request people wear FFP2/3 masks, which would do that.

https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...e-mandating-of-their-use.219985/#post-5225380

Wearing a high grade mask known as an FFP3 can provide up to 100% protection.
By contrast, there is a far greater chance of staff wearing standard issue surgical masks catching the virus.
Though fluid resistant, these masks are relatively flimsy and loose-fitting and are not meant to screen out infectious aerosols - tiny virus particles that can linger in the air and are now widely accepted as a source of coronavirus infection.

 

[yorksrob]

What exactly did I say that is "nonsensical" in your opinion? Can you be precise? Did I say "all of our current behaviour modifications have no effect"? Rather than type out what you are objecting to, can you quote it?

It sounds to me like you take issue with some of what I've said, but you are very cagey and evasive about what exactly you're objecting to, and what your alternative is. You asked me what claims you made and why you thought I thought you were calling for restrictions; I answered that by pointing to your earlier post; you've evaded the question regarding whether you still maintain that view or if you believe the latest data no longer justifies the restrictions you wanted.


I think the argument @big_rig is making is that you may be underestimating the effectiveness of vaccines by giving credit instead to 'behaviour modifications'.

I'm trusting the vaccines and not modifying my behaviour in any way; do I think some are modifying their behaviour? Yes, for sure, but there is a huge difference between the modifications enforced by different places, and yet there appears to be no correlation between such measures and case rates, and therefore it is very questionable whether such modifications are having much, if any, effect on the spread of Omicron.

It's unclear how much behaviour you think is being modified, or how much effect you think that may have, so it's difficult to support or discredit your argument, so this is all a bit of a pointless debate, as we're not going to get anywhere with it.


There was a so-called "circuit breaker" (it's covered in previous threads) but, apart from being denied the opportunity to keep myself healthy by playing sports and denying the ability to socialise in the pub, it made zero difference to me. It probably made zero difference to you except it was a month without going to the pub. All it achieved was a delay in infections.

I stand corrected in that case.

The tier system was still around in some form as I recall my last visit to a pub in November and not going on one again until April/May.

 

[takno]

I stand corrected in that case.

The tier system was still around in some form as I recall my last visit to a pub in November and not going on one again until April/May.

We didn't have the November "lockdown" in Scotland. However the November lockdown was very feeble compared to other lockdowns, and as far as I'm aware didn't consist of much more than closing down hospitality. Scotland had all meaningful hospitality closed in the Central belt (and then almost everywhere else shortly afterwards) from October mid-term onwards. The main difference was that hospitality was closed for us for around 6 months as part of a 2-week "circuit breaker", where England had theirs open again as soon as the November lockdown was done.

The pubs were also allowed to serve food indoors about a week earlier than they were in England once they re-opened in March or whenever.

 

[yorkie]

I stand corrected in that case.

The tier system was still around in some form as I recall my last visit to a pub in November and not going on one again until April/May.

Yes when the "lockdown" ended (which was a day earlier than originally advertised) we went back to the tier system; some places ended up with the same set of restrictions as during the "lockdown".

We didn't have the November "lockdown" in Scotland. However the November lockdown was very feeble compared to other lockdowns, and as far as I'm aware didn't consist of much more than closing down hospitality....

Yep, they also stopped people keeping fit by stopping sports too; it was ineffective and disgraceful.

Back to Omicron, I think there is now a wide acceptance it's much milder and there is also an acceptance that virtually everyone has had the chance to be vaccinated by now, so there is no excuse not to get back to normal.

Opinion | Omicron Variant May End Up Saving Lives

It’s far less lethal than previous versions, and its fast spread may finally push us to herd immunity.

www.wsj.com

...Legitimate questions are now being asked about why Britain was so dismissive of the evidence from South Africa, and whether Government scientific advisers are once again using fear as a method of control.

Dr Coetzee was among those who reported that omicron caused “very, very mild” symptoms compared with delta, and she hypothesised that it “could potentially be of great help to us” by replacing the more dangerous delta variant and helping the population to reach herd immunity at minimal cost to life. She says she was “astonished” at the panicked response to it in the UK....

...Yet Boris Johnson said last month that “the idea that this is somehow a milder version of the virus, I think that’s something we need to set on one side”, while Sir Chris said evidence from South Africa of a milder illness had been “overinterpreted”.

Does Dr Coetzee think xenophobia has played a role in Britain’s dismissal of her advice? “No – but I think there was arrogance from the politicians in the UK. Also, Boris Johnson was going through a bad time because of the criticism of his Christmas parties, so maybe there was a political reason for all this.

“People in the UK, including the ones advising the Government, don’t seem to understand what the clinical picture is. The scientists are not sitting with patients in front of them....

...Even when fresh data backed up what the South African scientists had been saying, Sage was dismissive...

South Africa's experts have been thoroughly vindicated, while SAGE remain firmly in the dock.

https://twitter.com/rid1tweets/status/1480223654998908932

First, confirmed #COVID19 cases across South Africa 7-day avg cases at 7,642 per day or 13 per 100k population This figure is down 11% week-on-week, and down to a third of the case loading seen at #Omicron peak Further, all provinces in SA seeing a decline...

...Promisingly, #COVID19 hospital admissions have remained lower than levels seen in previous waves New admissions slowing, down 18% week-on-week

Omicron Study in South Africa Points to End of Acute Pandemic Phase

A South African study from the epicenter of the world’s omicron surge offers a tantalizing hint that the acute phase of the Covid-19 pandemic may be ending.

www.bloomberg.com

A South African study from the epicenter of the world’s omicron surge offers a tantalizing hint that the acute phase of the Covid-19 pandemic may be ending...

...The rate of admissions climbed rapidly but began to decline within 33 days of the first analyzed, the study said. A snapshot of patients in the hospital on Dec. 14 and 15 showed that almost two-thirds of those infected with Covid-19 had been admitted for other reasons....

South Africa did not impose Drakeford or Sturgeon-style restrictions; cases naturally came down, and hospitalisations remained much lower than from previous variants.

 

[bramling]

Lots of it certainly seems to come out of his mouth!

He reminds me very much of John McDonnell. On the one hand comes over as a caring lovable grandad type - until such time as he gets fired up, then the true colours are displayed, a thoroughly nasty piece of work.

I felt we got a glimpse of this in today’s Sky News interview, where he came across as cold, unbending, authoritarian and unpleasant, and perhaps worst of all an “I know best attitude” yet completely unwilling to be scrutinised or challenged.

I can’t a remember a point in my lifetime where our politicians were so wall-to-wall incompetent.

 

[Failed Unit]

Yes after Christmas we had the full lockdown again, but England and Wales had that extra little one before the festive period which we definitely did not. It's the one time I can think of where restrictions in Scotland were less harsh than those in the rest of GB. I'm not sure if NI had a lockdown at the time or not.

Not all of England. Some of it was (Definitely London and the South East where they created tier 4). But other areas stayed in their lower tiers. Result- overcrowded trains the evening it was announced out of London to help spread the virus.

 

[brad465]

After the Sunday Times had a story about winding down testing, tomorrow the i has a story about Johnson being expected to announce a "living with covid" plan by the end of March, which includes scaling down testing and trying to move away from restrictions:

Tomorrow's Papers Today - UK Front Pages - Latest Newspaper Headlines

All of UK's Tomorrow's Front Pages ✅ Updated Daily between 7PM - 11pm ✅ The Mail, Express, Times, Guardian and many more Proudly supporting #buyapaper

www.tomorrowspapers.co.uk

 

[Peter Mugridge]

That sounds like the "Operation Rampdown" which was leaked back in November?

 

[yorkie]

That sounds like the "Operation Rampdown" which was leaked back in November?

Yes it's just re-releasing the same 'news'. What we really want to know (and it may not be decided for a couple of weeks yet) is whether the measures due to expire on 26 January will do so. They'd better do!

 

[Kite159]

I bet all those "must test myself 3 times a day to be on the safe side" folk must hate those rumours that they might not get free tests anymore.

They will probably be bulk ordering free tests when they can, to go with the mountain of toilet paper in the shed alongside the fifty cans of petrol they purchased last year

 

[Bayum]

I bet all those "must test myself 3 times a day to be on the safe side" folk must hate those rumours that they might not get free tests anymore.

They will probably be bulk ordering free tests when they can, to go with the mountain of toilet paper in the shed alongside the fifty cans of petrol they purchased last year

I’m lucky in that I’ll continue to receive them through education and I’ve got my ‘just in case’ PCR test too. My concern is for those that are wanting to be able to order tests to meet elderly relatives or for hospital appointments and the like. There doesn’t seem to be much out there to support those wanting to do the right thing in reducing any potential cross transmission.

 

[yorkie]

Everyone is going to get exposed to Sars-CoV-2; an elderly person who has been vaccinated/boosted cannot avoid exposure to the virus but once they have been exposed, will have the best possible immunity as they will have immunity against the full virus not just spike.

This idea that we must avoid transmission is absurd and unsustainable; we don't do it for 'flu, despite the fact that 'flu could also be deadly to elderly people and indeed hundreds can die per day in a bad 'flu year.

 

[Bayum]

Everyone is going to get exposed to Sars-CoV-2; an elderly person who has been vaccinated, boosted cannot avoid exposure to the virus but once they have been exposed, will have the best possible immunity as they will have immunity against the full virus not just spike.

This idea that we must avoid transmission is absurd and unsustainable; we don't do it for 'flu, despite the fact that 'flu could also be deadly to elderly people and indeed hundreds can die per day in a bad 'flu year.

No, but we vaccinate against flu, close down care homes and put measures in place. The point is fairly minor because you have the concern of COVID-19 being far more transmissible than influenza.

 

[yorkie]

No, but we vaccinate against flu, close down care homes and put measures in place. The point is fairly minor because you have the concern of COVID-19 being far more transmissible than influenza.

Indeed; the Omicron variant of Sars-CoV-2 is so transmissible that the huge cost to society of measures to potentially reduce spread cannot possibly be justified.

Instead we simply need to encourage people to get vaccinated and go about our normal lives.

Testing of asymptomatic people is not justified and is not supported by many experts.

Check this out if you want to hear from expert virologists:

02:24 for other pathogens are viral pathogens
02:27 that vaccines exist we don't test people
02:30 after vaccinating them for measles mumps
02:33 polio hepatitis
02:36 and influenza
02:38 and all of these vaccines were
02:41 basically to prevent severe disease...

04:31 and there are people who were
04:33 unvaccinated and they took a risk and
04:36 those people are taking the same risk
04:39 as they do now and we didn't stop
04:42 society and we didn't start testing
04:43 everybody for it
04:45 and
04:47 so i don't see why this as we become
04:50 more and more vaccinated why this is a
04:52 problem why we started testing people
04:55 who are vaccinated...

09:37 when we didn't have vaccines
09:39 testing was a way to
09:42 go about your life
09:44 now we have vaccines if people choose
09:46 not to take them that's their decision
09:48 and they're the ones that are going to
09:49 be in the hospital everyone else mostly
09:51 has mild disease i know everyone now i
09:54 know is coveted positive except amy
09:56 because she doesn't test and myself
09:58 because i don't test either all right...

I understand you don't seem to be keen to listen to me, but I don't just make this stuff up; I listen to experts who are not the ones acting all hysterical trying to make a huge name for themselves in the media and on Twitter. So, don't take my word for it, listen to their views...

 

[Bayum]

Indeed; the Omicron variant of Sars-CoV-2 is so transmissible that the huge cost to society of measures to potentially reduce spread cannot possibly be justified.

Instead we simply need to encourage people to get vaccinated and go about our normal lives.

Testing of asymptomatic people is not justified and is not supported by many experts.

Check this out if you want to hear from expert virologists:

I understand you don't seem to be keen to listen to me, but I don't just make this stuff up; I listen to experts who are not the ones acting all hysterical trying to make a huge name for themselves in the media and on Twitter. So, don't take my word for it, listen to their views...

At what point did I say that the rest of the measures weren’t needed? I didn’t. I pointed out that for those that have that concern that elderly relatives may become ill from COVID, don’t forget that the trend for deaths has continued to be high in this age group even with vaccine, or for those entering a place where there are other vulnerable people, hospitals, outpatient clinics etc.

 

[yorkie]

At what point did I say that the rest of the measures weren’t needed? I didn’t. I pointed out that for those that have that concern that elderly relatives may become ill from COVID, don’t forget that the trend for deaths has continued to be high in this age group even with vaccine, or for those entering a place where there are other vulnerable people, hospitals, outpatient clinics etc.

Do you have evidence that otherwise healthy people who are fully vaccinated/boosted are dying of Covid (not simply with Covid) at a high rate?

Edit: and I'll add this relates to Omicron, as per the title, as that is what is pertinent here; Delta deaths are not relevant to this discussion as Delta is being forced out by the milder Omicron variant.

 

[SouthEastBuses]

I do also very much hope that eventually this year, the government removes all international travel related restrictions (on entering the UK - unfortunately for leaving the UK, the British Government can't do anything about it, but even then, I hope other countries do the same as well), such as the Passenger Locator Form and the test requirements. We really need to go back to 2019 normality now.

 

[Pete_uk]

I've just seen some knitted face masks for sale in a shop!

 

[Berliner]

I do also very much hope that eventually this year, the government removes all international travel related restrictions (on entering the UK - unfortunately for leaving the UK, the British Government can't do anything about it, but even then, I hope other countries do the same as well), such as the Passenger Locator Form and the test requirements. We really need to go back to 2019 normality now.

They did ban leaving the UK for a while and then heavily restricted leaving by making the red list nonsense. They can't control who lets us in, but for a while it was definitely fortress UK and we were forced to stay inside by the government, something that no democratic government of a free society should ever, under any circumstances, implement.

Fair enough control who comes in, even control things your own citizens have to do to get back in, but never make it illegal for them to leave.

 

[HST274]

I agree that in future stopping testing will help us get back to normal. I also think the current restrictions are not really needed, if at all (especially unnecessary in schools), and future restrictions are definitely unwarranted. But when a disease sweeps through hundreds of thousands in a day regular testing in certain settings will help us get back to normal. I know that I have it now and I think at the moment it is better to know than spread it everywhere. The NHS may have been under such pressure before but if I spread to two people instead of twelve the risk of increasing the pressure by someone going to hospital is reduced. And if the isolation period is reduced again we should easily see out this wave, by isolating those with the virus, reducing spread with that+high vaccination/booster rates and keeping hospitalisations low, all while minimising disruption to jobs as much as possible with only a small isolation period. In short I think non symptom testing when there is so many cases may raise those case rates by one but in the long term reduce the numbers that matter.

 

[Furryanimal]

After the Sunday Times had a story about winding down testing, tomorrow the i has a story about Johnson being expected to announce a "living with covid" plan by the end of March, which includes scaling down testing and trying to move away from restrictions:

Tomorrow's Papers Today - UK Front Pages - Latest Newspaper Headlines

All of UK's Tomorrow's Front Pages ✅ Updated Daily between 7PM - 11pm ✅ The Mail, Express, Times, Guardian and many more Proudly supporting #buyapaper

www.tomorrowspapers.co.uk

Great news for those living in England.
Will those of us unfortunate to live in the devolved administrations be so lucky?
i fear not.

 

[seagull]

don’t forget that the trend for deaths has continued to be high in this age group (the elderly) even with vaccine.

Dear oh dear. Personally I have been aware from a relatively young age, that the risk of death when you become elderly is high. Amazingly enough, even before Covid.
All Covid is doing is removing some who would otherwise STILL have been taken by flu, pneumonia or other respiratory disease. With vaccines and boosters having been rolled out, the elderly have far more to fear from a variety of other diseases than they do from Covid, especially while we continue this illogical obsession with thinking Covid is the only thing worth spending medical time and money on.

 

[BRX]

What exactly did I say that is "nonsensical" in your opinion? Can you be precise? Did I say "all of our current behaviour modifications have no effect"? Rather than type out what you are objecting to, can you quote it?

It sounds to me like you take issue with some of what I've said, but you are very cagey and evasive about what exactly you're objecting to, and what your alternative is. You asked me what claims you made and why you thought I thought you were calling for restrictions; I answered that by pointing to your earlier post; you've evaded the question regarding whether you still maintain that view or if you believe the latest data no longer justifies the restrictions you wanted.

Here's what you originally said:

Restrictions are futile and are also misplaced; the current pressure is no worse (in fact arguably less worse) than in previous years, such as:

Is this NHS crisis really worse than ones before?

Winter is always the most difficult time of year. How alarming are the current problems?

www.bbc.co.uk

People were not required to wear flimsy masks then, and indeed experts gave good reasons not to. There was no expectation anyone should show a flu vaccine passport to gain entry to any venue. There was no requirement or guidance to work from home. There was no army of enraged people on Twitter with cold heart logos in their usernames demanding lockdowns.

We need to get away from the current mindset that too many people have.

You say "restrictions are futile and also misplaced" and then you go on to mention mask wearing and work-from-home specifically. Your position appears to be that we should not have had any restrictions or change in behaviour over the past few weeks (that is, over the time during which it became apparent that Omicron was going to become prevalent in the UK).

To support this position, you compare the situation in the NHS just now with the situation in previous non-covid years. My objection is that this doesn't make any sense, and I've already explained at least twice why it doesn't make sense.

I'm not evading the question about my own positions, I am trying not to let you divert the discussion to an argument about my opinions, because my objection was to do with the above.

I don't have a fixed position on what level of restrictions should be in place because it's changing all the time. You quoted me from a month ago when we didn't yet know how Omicron would play out in the UK. I don't think we should have any additional restrictions at this point, because the time to try and mitigate a peak in pressure on the health service has long passed. I don't have black-and-white views on restrictions because it's a complex issue that's very difficult to make an objective call on and at no pont have I had any certainty about what's appropriate. What bothers me about much of the discussion in this thread, and indeed what your position generally appears to be, is a very black-and-white approach to everything that involves what I think is unwarranted certainty about various things. This ends up with you looking for arguments to support your belief that restrictions, imposed or voluntary, have no effect, and you end up making arguments that don't make any sense.

It's very hard for anyone to prove the extent to which, for example, increased WFH has slowed the spread of Omicron. I can't prove that this specific measure has reduced the peak numbers in hospital by a certain amount and I don't try to. We don't have a control group. On the other hand you seek to use figures from previous winters - comparing a situation that involved a different mix of disease in a different context - to show that measures such as WFH are "futile" and "misplaced". This comparison doesn't show this, and it can't show this.