Petition launched to demand re-opening of Dumfries-Stranraer railway line

[Sandy R]

And you are not persuading those who post on a railway forum with that argument! We are on the whole pro-railway and yet it isn't working! How do you think that this argument will work when it's put in front of people who will be far far more skeptical of spending £500m plus of public money?

Fair point.
Had the petition never took off and the FB page been largely ignored I possibly would not have pursued this any further.
But there has been a lot of interest in this and the interest is growing daily. So people, or at least some people want it.
Therefore it is worth pursuing.
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Yes, I've had enough now too.

This morning I made a very positive suggestion around campaigning to build traffic on existing routes around Dumfries and Stranraer ahead, not instead of, waging the battle for end to end reinstatement, and to my surprise, the response was that asking for those incremental improvements was dismissed as being someone else's job.

To me this suggested someone who can't get the broader picture, and failing to understand that the passenger traffic to sustain the route would be dependent on the demonstrable success of the connections at either end.

As it stands, Dumfries station doesn't manage 400k passengers per year and Stranraer achieves around a tenth of that.

I made a comparison with a recently rejected thread on the rebuilding of the Strathmore route. Perth, with almost identical population in the mid 40k's is at the 'Dumfries' end of the route and in 14-15 handled near on 1.5m passengers. Montrose - and I know this may be an analogy too far - at the other end did over 400k in the same period.

Just not enough people, and not enough current demand, in the right places, sorry.

I didn't dismiss it, I told you there are people already pursuing those ideas.
Check Joan McAlpine's statement to Transport Scotland from March or April this year.
Dumfries has low-ish usage figures because the service north is slow, treated as an extension of the Kilmarnock commuter service rather than a service in its own right. Many drive to Lockerbie to use Transpennine instead.
Its needs better frequency and shorter journey times.
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The words 'clutching' and 'straws' comes to mind.
As a related 'blue sky' question - what do you think the impact would be of significant investment on the existing railway to Ayr (loops, electrification, resignalling, etc.) to allow an all day, clockface service to Glasgow?

I was demonstrating a general shift away from domestic air to rail.
I don't think electrification to Stranraer is viable either way, frequencies too low.
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It really sounds like a catch 22 situation for Stranraer. The town is on a road to nowhere that's lost its port, if nothing is done then the line will continue to decline, but the public would object to spending money trying to revitalise a line.

To be frank, 45,000 users is quite frankly pathetic for a town if its size. Millom in Cumbria has 0.213 million annual users and the town is half the size off Stranraer, although that is one of the most frequented stations per capita in Britain.

Unless an Irish Sea rail crossing emerges, the business case for opening the line to Dumfries is pitiful, and wouldn't be much better if it linked from Cairnryan. Usage of Stranraer only fell by 7000 following the port closure. What Stranraer probably needs is a rail station actually in the town centre if people are to use it, which has been proposed. A line link to Cairnryan may boost passenger numbers on the line but it's unlikely to justify the spending for a few miles of spur track (the Troon link shut for a reason).

The frequencies at Millom are much better than at Stranraer.
Which helps my point, provide trains, or provide more trains, and people will use them.

 

[najaB]

No market for Scotland /NE England to Ireland flows ? Especially now that Troon-Larne has stopped ?

Take three guesses why Troon-Larne has been cut back.... Here's a a hint 'significant losses'.

 

[Sandy R]

For the staggering sum/effort required to reopen Dumfries-Stranraer, you could probably raise the line speed of the G&SW to 90 mph throughout, re-double the single line section to the north, re-open a station or two (Cumnock?) and still have change to dual track sections of the Highland main line.
And the good burghers of Newton Stewart and its environs would be probably better served (if indirectly) by a clock-face hourly service Glasgow-Kilmarnock-Carlisle running fast between Dumfries and Carlisle, supplemented by an hour Dumfries - Carlisle shuttle doing the stops in between.
Plus of course, providing a decent Sunday service on the line - as others have noted up thread, the current offering is shameful.

'The good burghers of Newton Stewart ' are currently 50 miles and a hour and 3/4 bus ride from Dumfries.
Better frequencies on the Nith Valley line will do absolutely nothing for them.
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Take three guesses why Troon-Larne has been cut back.... Here's a a hint 'significant losses'.

Or how about 'consolidation of routes'.......
(Same company)
It hasn't been 'cut back' its been stopped altogether.
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Perhaps with speed improvements on the relevant routes, and an Ayr-facing chord at Newton on Ayr, a service via Mauchline Jct could wash its face?

It would still take an hour-ish longer.
The two daily Stranraer-Newcastle and girvan-Newcastle services were chopped a few years back.
I guess no-one wanted to spend 5 hours between Stranraer-Newcastle.
But if they could do it in 3 1/2 hours ......
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I'm curious to know why you feel it's so important that people on this forum agree with your ideas? If you decide to promote an idea on this forum then surely you should expect that it will be debated?

Does it really matter to you if nobody appears to agree with your ideas?

Of course it matters.
Clearly some people on here have extensive industry knowledge, so some of their opinions matter.

 

[najaB]

'Or how about 'consolidation of routes'.......
(Same company)
It hasn't been 'cut back' its been stopped altogether.

I know it's been stopped - I was being generous. And if there was as much untapped demand for rail freight as you believe there is then it would have happened at Troon which is already practically rail-connected, or at Stranraer which is. The fact it didn't happen in either case (nor did they build the 10km branch to Cairnryan) makes is even less likely that a (half?) billion pound railway will ever make money.

 

[Philip Phlopp]

But if they could do it in 3 1/2 hours ......

They still wouldn't want to do it.

It was, as ever, Sail Rail demand which vanished.

There was a large Northern Ireland student population at Newcastle - northern England and Scottish universities were always popular with the NI students wanting out of Ulster, actually, which undoubtedly drove passenger numbers on British Rail to Stranraer.

 

[RichmondCommu]

Clearly some people on here have extensive industry knowledge, so some of their opinions matter.

So in that case why are you accusing them of being negative when all they are trying to do is tell you like it is?

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

This thread must now have examined all aspects of the proposed situation in depth and it is beginning to feel like it has now reached the stage of "debating for debating's sake"

 

[RichmondCommu]

Of course it matters.

Why does it matter that some people agree with you?

 

[yorkie]

Im NOT promoting this project over others, but alongside.

If we get loads of spare cash for such projects, then great, we will build this alongside all the other projects that have similar, or better (in some cases likely much better) cost-benefit ratios.

In the meantime, those schemes which are most viable should be prioritised.

This will be about the third time ive said that Leven, Ellon/Buchan , Brechin etc are all good projects too.
Leven is no.1 priority in Scotland for rail reopenings.

There are many which could be built, but unless funding massively increases, we can't have them all.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love it if all possibly viable schemes were built!

 

[Philip Phlopp]

Is there a scheme for Brechin ? What's that about - extending the preserved line to Montrose or the usual Perth-Aberdeen avoiding Dundee line which makes as much financial sense as https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6q4n5TQnpA

 

[Sandy R]

Is there a scheme for Brechin ? What's that about - extending the preserved line to Montrose or the usual Perth-Aberdeen avoiding Dundee line which makes as much financial sense as https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6q4n5TQnpA

Brechin was mentioned in 2007 , local MSP I think, havent heard much since. as far as im aware there is no local (organised) campaign for it.
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So in that case why are you accusing them of being negative when all they are trying to do is tell you like it is?

I felt there was too much negativity, wasn't getting a fair hearing. And that the costs of reinstatement were being overtstated.

 

[6Gman]

Which helps my point, provide trains, or provide more trains, and people will use them.

Ah, the "build it and they will come" argument.

Of course people will use additional services - but will it be in sufficient numbers to make it worthwhile?

 

[Sandy R]

They still wouldn't want to do it.

It was, as ever, Sail Rail demand which vanished.

There was a large Northern Ireland student population at Newcastle - northern England and Scottish universities were always popular with the NI students wanting out of Ulster, actually, which undoubtedly drove passenger numbers on British Rail to Stranraer.

Its just been pointed out that Stranraer's usage dropped from 52,000 to 45,000 after the Stena move to Loch Ryan.
Therefore RailSail was at most 13.5% of Stranraer customers.
Proving that the line reinstatement is not SOLELY dependent on NI customers, its just part of the mix
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Ah, the "build it and they will come" argument.

Of course people will use additional services - but will it be in sufficient numbers to make it worthwhile?

'Ah, the "build it and they will come" argument.'

Alloa Projected 155,000 First (full) year actual 390,000
Larkhall projected 190,000 actual 269,000
Etc etc
Build it and they will come.

 

[najaB]

Its just been pointed out that Stranraer's usage dropped from 52,000 to 45,000 after the Stena move to Loch Ryan.

Let's assume that all of the passengers travelling to Glasgow decided to go to Dumfries instead. 45,000 passengers a year at, let's be really generous and say £20 a head, each way. That's £1.8M a year. Even if 100% of that went into repaying the cost of building the railway, how long would it take to break even on this project?

 

[Philip Phlopp]

Its just been pointed out that Stranraer's usage dropped from 52,000 to 45,000 after the Stena move to Loch Ryan.

That's only the remaining Sail Rail demand which was lost as a result ferry port moving, the bulk of the loss happened when budget airlines took almost all the market.

 

[RichmondCommu]

I felt there was too much negativity, wasn't getting a fair hearing. And that the costs of reinstatement were being overtstated.

In which case just rely on the courage of your own convictions.

 

[Bald Rick]

Well this thread moved right along didn't it.

Despite vowing to opt out, a few things I need to clear up / challenge.

1) I don't have (much) local knowledge. But I do have (much) knowledge about building / rebuilding / renewing railways, and how much that costs, and how long it takes.

2) I didn't acknowledge that the Borders railway had additional costs in the bridging for the Edinburgh bypass. But I do note that Dumfries to Stranraer would have to cross the A75 five times (once at a dual carriageway) and all five would require a new bridge to be built, most likely with a road diversion during construction. I also note six viaducts this route takes in (Luce, Cree, Fleet, Stroan, Loch Ken, Nith), many (but not all) of which are still extant; condition unlikely to support regular main line trains after 50 years of little to no maintenance.

3) I didn't acknowledge the lower land prices in D&G compared to the Borders. But I do note that Dumfries to Stranraer would require residential and/or commercial property demolition in Castle Douglas, Dalbeattie, Newton Stewart, Glenn Luce and Crossmichael. It would also be in the back yards, or front yards, of various other residential or commercial premises, which the occupiers will not particularly want the railway in. This does not compare well to Borders.

4) I didn't acknowledge the extent of dynamic loops on the Borders line. Acknowledged. Building a twin track railway costs approx 30% more than a single track railway. The saving is less if you want to future proof for double track. Note the views of the Borders reopening campaigners.

5) I didn't acknowledge that there would be fewer stations per mile than on Borders. Acknowledged. A simple 4 car platform on a single line with minimal facilities costs about £1m.

In return there hasn't been acknowledgement that Dumfries to Stranraer is much more remote from population / industrial centres than Borders and will therefore require a more expensive logistical exercise to construct. Moving that quantity of material and people that far costs more in time, vehicles and fuel. An extra 2 hours a day, for about a thousand people, for four years, soon adds up.

Neither has there been acknowledgement that whilst Borders was almost entirely on extant and protected formation, Dumfries to Stranraer isn't.

Taken all together, I cannot see how Dumfries to Stranraer would be cheaper to build, per mile, than Borders. Indeed, in my professional view it would be at least 30% more expensive. Before inflation.


A point about the domestic air market. I have done much research into this in the past. More people fly between London and Scotland now than ever before. The market share has, however, moved to rail over the past decade, largely due to:

a) the improved service on the WCML post 2009 (twice the frequency, and 45-60 minutes quicker), and
b) the increased security arrangements post 2007, and,
c) increased domestic Air Passenger Duty.

All of which shifted the price / time equation towards rail - rail already winning hands down on comfort. Even then, the London-Scotland air/rail market share shifted from 90/10 to around 75/25. It is unlikely that there will be similar significant shifts in market conditions until HS2 opens. (As an aside, IIRC London - Scotland is about 75% of all England - Scotland air travel).


Finally, I agree with other posters that it is good to see someone with passion promoting and arguing for their scheme. I have come across many in a professional capacity and also on this forum. I do wish, though, that the passion was invested on more viable schemes, which would then have a fighting chance of being delivered. There are far too many decent railway projects that are not happening becsuse no-one is shouting for them.

 

[Sandy R]

Let's assume that all of the passengers travelling to Glasgow decided to go to Dumfries instead. 45,000 passengers a year at, let's be really generous and say £20 a head, each way. That's £1.8M a year. Even if 100% of that went into repaying the cost of building the railway, how long would it take to break even on this project?

Someone already mentioned 'arguing for arguing's sake.

Spurious point.
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In which case just rely on the courage of your own convictions.

I will.

Incidently, WestSound FM have just contacted me for an interview.

That's in addition to the coverage already had in the Dumfries Standard, Galloway News and Galloway Gazette, and Daily Record online.

All in the last fortnight.

Others think this has legs.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Someone already mentioned 'arguing for arguing's sake'. Spurious point.

If you insist on quoting me, then have the courtesy to do so correctly. The words that I used were "debating for debating's sake" which is different than what you stated.
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I will. Incidently, WestSound FM have just contacted me for an interview.

That's in addition to the coverage already had in the Dumfries Standard, Galloway News and Galloway Gazette, and Daily Record online.

All in the last fortnight. Others think this has legs.

Will WestSound FM also have a person to interview who will state the costs required for this project and of when the finance will be forthcoming?

 

[NSEFAN]

Alloa Projected 155,000 First (full) year actual 390,000
Larkhall projected 190,000 actual 269,000
Etc etc
Build it and they will come.

Larkhall serves Glasgow. Alloa also serves Glasgow as well as Edinburgh. Both are major centres of employment and the journey time to them is approximately 40 minutes for Larkhall and just over an hour for Alloa. A Stranraer - Dumfries railway wouldn't serve such a lucrative market and would take well over an hour to get to Glasgow.

Whilst the route would serve for diversionary purposes. this doesn't look like it will fly. The only freight that I can see using it would be coal traffic, which is in gradual decline anyway now most of our coal fired power stations are closing. The route via Dumfries and Kilmarnock already acts as a diversion for the WCML in the region, is another diversionary route really needed?

I also don't think you can assume that freight will "just" decide to use the railway because it is built. You need to strategically place freight loading facilities and there would have to be clear freight flows to make this worthwhile, otherwise they end up becoming a big white elephant.

There may well be scope for reopening the line in the far future, should the population rise sufficiently. Until this happens I just can't see this line reopening. "Build it and they will come" only works when enough people live locally to make the train a better alternative to the car.

 

[DarloRich]

They still wouldn't want to do it.

It was, as ever, Sail Rail demand which vanished.

There was a large Northern Ireland student population at Newcastle - northern England and Scottish universities were always popular with the NI students wanting out of Ulster, actually, which undoubtedly drove passenger numbers on British Rail to Stranraer.

There still was when I was at uni in Newcastle in the mid 90's - mainly from the protestant side of the divide. Many took the boat/train option but Newcastle had a good service by air to Belfast

I felt there was too much negativity, wasn't getting a fair hearing. And that the costs of reinstatement were being overtstated.

The honestly aren't being overstated. If anything people have tended towards the optimistic end of the costing model. I would say you certainly have.

However the biggest issue is funding. It simply isn't available unless the project is already committed, forms part of the route plans, offers an exceptional return and/or has substantial third party funding. The managing public money rules under which NR operate now mean there will be an even greater scrutiny on investment requests and an even tougher success requirement.

The media, especially local media, want local stories that get people ringing up the radio station and commenting on line. At the very worst they want an easy Phil Space piece! It doesn't mean they are in agreement. It is good to get them on side but don't read too much into it.

 

[jimm]

Incidently, WestSound FM have just contacted me for an interview.

That's in addition to the coverage already had in the Dumfries Standard, Galloway News and Galloway Gazette, and Daily Record online.

All in the last fortnight.

Others think this has legs.

Sorry, but just because the media are covering this story does not mean that they "think this has legs". It means it is an interesting talking point that they think will engage readers and listeners, not that those media outlets are endorsing the idea.

If money was no object, which it would have to be before an inch of track is laid across Dumfries & Galloway, I wouldn't even bother with the rollercoaster old route through the back of beyond between Castle Douglas and Newton Stewart.

Go down to Kirkcudbright using the old branch formation and then build a new route from there to Gatehouse of Fleet and then run alongside the A75 up to Palnure, before picking up the old alignment into Newton Stewart from there. At least that way you would serve every major settlement in the area and add on a genuine visitor magnet in the shape of Kirkcudbright.

PS: Somewhere back up the thread, someone mentioned past journey times. Having dug out my copy of The Little Railways of South-West Scotland by David L Smith (the authority on all things Glasgow & South Western Railway) I was able to check the details of a run by Clan class Pacific 72005 Clan McGregor with a featherweight three-coach 2.33pm boat train from Carlisle to Stranraer on August 23, 1959, which Smith says he believed to be the fastest ever recorded on the line.

It did Dumfries-Stranraer in a nudge over 90 minutes, with stops at Dalbeattie, Castle Douglas, Creetown (35 seconds to cross an eastbound train) and Newton Stewart. It had been delayed by signal-line working at Annan after a derailment, left Dumfries 38 minutes late and was 13 late into Stranraer Harbour. I suspect the ride must have been a bit lively at times...

 

[DarloRich]

Whilst the route would serve for diversionary purposes. this doesn't look like it will fly. The only freight that I can see using it would be coal traffic, which is in gradual decline anyway now most of our coal fired power stations are closing. The route via Dumfries and Kilmarnock already acts as a diversion for the WCML in the region, is another diversionary route really needed?

Diversionary routes cut very little mustard as the basis for investment.

 

[6Gman]

Incidently, WestSound FM have just contacted me for an interview.

That's in addition to the coverage already had in the Dumfries Standard, Galloway News and Galloway Gazette, and Daily Record online.

All in the last fortnight.

Others think this has legs.

Local radio station wants something to fill a few minutes/ local newspaper wants something to fill a few column inches.

Means nothing.

Sorry.
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Let's assume that all of the passengers travelling to Glasgow decided to go to Dumfries instead. 45,000 passengers a year at, let's be really generous and say £20 a head, each way. That's £1.8M a year. Even if 100% of that went into repaying the cost of building the railway, how long would it take to break even on this project?

Contrary to what Sandy R believes this is not a spurious point.

I've been involved in public sector capital schemes (albeit not on this scale) but using normal public sector accounting rules, and making the following assumptions:

1. Capital cost £500M (i.e. Sandy R's end of the scale)
2. Interest rates 2%
3. Write-off over 100 years (much longer than normal)

Annual finance costs £7.5M.
Annual running costs - £ ??
Annual income (see above) £1.8M

Annual loss £5.7M +

Please note that I'm making assumptions which - if anything - understate the actual costs (though, to be fair, inflation would reduce the loss in later years).

 

[najaB]

Spurious point.

No, it's not. If the passenger numbers are that abysmal and the freight is non-existent then what is the 'B' in BCR? It is a massive investment with no potential of recouping the money in anyone's lifetime so what is the social benefit that would make it worthwhile to society to spend the cash? And why is this railway the best way to achieve that benefit?

 

[QueensCurve]

The line is a strategic link between the north of Ireland, Scotland and northern England.

The line was a strategic link between the north of Ireland, Scotland and northern England.

 

[Greenback]

Sandy R, whilst I admire you for your belief, optimism and persistence, you are coming to a few erroneous conclusions in this thread.

 

[QueensCurve]

15 containers is break even point. Stand on the A75 anywhere for 10 minutes and count the Irish lorries going by.

That presumably would depend on the number of transhipments and the distance to travel.

My figures (35y out of date) are that it needs to travel over 100m with one transhipment and over 400m if 2.
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D&Galloway council is one of the most anti-rail councils in Scotland.

If true, that in itself would be a reason for the proposal to be futile.

This thread is notable for a couple of things:-

• The venom raised against the proposal
• The dogged determination to defend the proposal

The case against reopening the "Port Road" would certainly seem to be overwhelming.



The original poster merely drew attention to a petition. We can all choose whether or not to sign it. Amazing people have such energy to expend on defending and opposing the proposal.

 

[najaB]

...The venom raised against the proposal...

I can't say that I've seen much in the way of venom - I don't think anyone is actively opposed to the idea, certainly I'm not against it but I think the benefits have been overstated and the costs underestimated.

I'd love to see the route reinstated, but being realistic it will be a long time before it reaches the top of the pile.

 

[Greenback]

People are entitled to air their views on the petition and what it hopes to achieve. The fact that there are so many who don't believe that this is a viable proposition surely tells it's own story?