Petition launched to demand re-opening of Dumfries-Stranraer railway line

[daodao]

'Main line'

Thanks for noticing that, perhaps others will do so now.

As I'ive said in previous posts, its usefulness goes beyond just a local commuter line. It would not be viable for that use alone.

Unfortunately, it will be difficult to resurrect the Port Road's role as a "main line" because:
a) "rail-sail" has died as a mode for overseas passenger journeys in the last 20 years due to the rise of low cost airlines; and
b) there is limited scope for rail-borne freight traffic now that ships no longer serve Stranraer and rail freight has ceased to exist in the 6 counties (and virtually ceased in the rest of Eire).

 

[Philip Phlopp]

But hey, what do experts know?

You don't need experts, all you need is misguided enthusiasm. It electrifies lines, rebuilds viaducts, holds up embankments and miraculously makes freight appear.

 

[Sandy R]

You know what, I wish you luck in your campaign but it's clear to me that you were never open to the idea of being persuaded, have made an instant 'viable scheme 'decision and have stubbornly stuck to that despite some evidence to the contrary because some people just don't like to admit they are wrong, or that they can be proved wrong.

One last piece of advice - don't expect anything to happen with this idea before CP15 at the earliest.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
And there's a reason that the Port Road hasn't featured on any of the rail feasibility studies which have been conducted over the last 20-plus years. But hey, what do experts know?

That's because there hasn't been a concerted campaign to do it.

One mention from former MP Russell Brown of a feasibility study in the last 20 years is nothing.

Funnily enough the 'no freight' idea was obviously ignored by Alex Fergusson MSP who proposed that D&g council make it a stipulation of giving planning permission to Stena Line's new Loch Ryan terminal that the former military line to Cairnryan was reopened and paid for by them.
Obviously he's just another railway dreamer eh ?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Unfortunately, it will be difficult to resurrect the Port Road's role as a "main line" because:
a) "rail-sail" has died as a mode for overseas passenger journeys in the last 20 years due to the rise of low cost airlines; and
b) there is limited scope for rail-borne freight traffic now that ships no longer serve Stranraer and rail freight has ceased to exist in the 6 counties (and virtually ceased in the rest of Eire).

Low cost airlines are on the way out. Example Ryanair pulling out of Prestwick.

Rail Sail died because Stena now bus passengers to Ayr, terrible decision.

Ships serve Cairnryan where the former military line was. As ive said in a previous post, the transfer point is not that important, rail to road can occur at Stranraer or Castle Kennedy where there is spare land adjacent to the A75.

It doesn't really matter about the lack of railfreight in Ireland, trans shipping back to rail in Ireland would just add to the costs. One transhipment only is feasible.

 

[najaB]

Funnily enough the 'no freight' idea was obviously ignored by Alex Fergusson MSP who proposed that D&g council make it a stipulation of giving planning permission to Stena Line's new Loch Ryan terminal that the former military line to Cairnryan was reopened and paid for by them.

There's a huge difference between a 10km spur and a 100km mainline.

You'll notice that the 10km spur didn't get built either.

 

[6Gman]

There is virtually no container traffic on Belfast-Stranraer route (certainly I could count on one hand the number of containers I've ever seen at Cairnryan). Even if there was, there's already a railway connection to Stranraer that could be gauge cleared much more cheaply, and a rail-connected port that already has ferry service from Belfast.

I pointed out several pages ago that the official figures show that the number of containers shipped via Cairn Ryan in 2014 was ... zero.

(Some will have passed on lorries I'll accept.)

Strangely Sandy R never responded to that fact.

 

[najaB]

Rail Sail died because Stena now bus passengers to Ayr, terrible decision.

SailRail traffic has plummeted because you can fly to Belfast for £40 from Edinburgh or Glasgow. It was already plummeting before the move to Cairnryan.

 

[47271]

I sympathise with Sandy's frustration, this is clearly something he really believes in. However, he needs to understand that many of us on this forum see such proposals roll past us on a weekly if not daily basis. We're very familiar with the application of the rules quoted below. They were set out as early as post 15 on this thread and have been applied to this reinstatement at least twice before in my memory.

Altnabreac's 4 golden rules of a successful rail reopening:

Population of 10,000+

60 minutes (75 at a push) journey time of a major employment centre.

Extant or mainly unobstructed trackbed

Ability to extend an existing service so more terminal capacity is not required.


Post 15 also explains why Dumfries-Stranraer fails by the rules. That's all that's happening on here. I'm sure the majority of us would like to see the line reinstated, but we can see that it doesn't stack up.

If it helps add perspective, or convince Sandy that we're not all biased against Dumfries & Galloway, I've dug out another recent thread covering Strathmore. It bears similarities, even down to suggestions of a new route.

Small towns strung out, with a rural rather than post industrial economy, and for Dumfries read Perth. I'm not suggesting that Montrose and Stranraer are especially comparable, but you get the idea.

http://www.railforums.co.uk/showthread.php?t=130535

If anything a less favourable conclusion was reached.

I do wish the petitioner well. He's clearly a committed campaigner and maybe the project's day will come eventually. In the meantime, the best way of making it a reality is to ensure that as many people as possible are using Dumfries and Stranraer stations in their present form, getting Nithsdale electrified and reopening Beattock station. If I lived in Dumfries that's what I'd be campaigning for right now.

 

[daodao]

Low cost airlines are on the way out. Example Ryanair pulling out of Prestwick.

Rail Sail died because Stena now bus passengers to Ayr, terrible decision.

Ships serve Cairnryan where the former military line was. As ive said in a previous post, the transfer point is not that important, rail to road can occur at Stranraer or Castle Kennedy where there is spare land adjacent to the A75.

It doesn't really matter about the lack of railfreight in Ireland, trans shipping back to rail in Ireland would just add to the costs. One transhipment only is feasible.

Rail-sail is dead everywhere - examples of overseas ports that no longer have passenger services include Dun Laoghaire, Oostende, Vlissingen and Esbjerg.

It is less than 20 years ago when I travelled on a through rail/sail ticket from Whitchurch (Glam) to Dublin Connolly and it was cheaper and little slower than going by air (there were no suitable air services from Cardiff to Dublin at that time).

 

[Philip Phlopp]

Funnily enough the 'no freight' idea was obviously ignored by Alex Fergusson MSP who proposed that D&g council make it a stipulation of giving planning permission to Stena Line's new Loch Ryan terminal that the former military line to Cairnryan was reopened and paid for by them.
Obviously he's just another railway dreamer eh ?

Why do you think it didn't happen ?

There's no containerised freight using the port which could have used an intermodal service, there's not enough freight which could be containerised or switched to swap-body freight, and there's not enough freight which could swap to piggyback freight.

You only need to go to the port and look at the freight to understand why this proposal didn't float then and won't float now.

 

[Robertj21a]

--- old post above --- --- new post below ---


Low cost airlines are on the way out. Example Ryanair pulling out of Prestwick.

.

'........Low cost airlines are on the way out' - have you lost your marbles ?

Ryanair often change which airports they use, across the UK and Europe. As in any business, they need to ensure that the costs incurred can be easily outweighed by the profits made - Prestwick may not meet that criteria at the present time.

 

[6Gman]

As I've said in previous posts, its usefulness goes beyond just a local commuter line. It would not be viable for that use alone.

So what are these other uses which transform its viability?

Incoming tourists? Won't they need a car to tour the area so will come by car anyway? Or pick up a hire car in Carlisle/Dumfries?

Outgoing long-distance travel? How many D&G folk travel south of Carlisle per week? Pretty few I'd suspect.

Freight? Ah, the non-existent container traffic and the freight flows which are unviable via Kilmarnock but viable via the Port Road ...

It just doesn't add up.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

You don't need experts, all you need is misguided enthusiasm. It electrifies lines, rebuilds viaducts, holds up embankments and miraculously makes freight appear.

Like button needed!

 

[BigCj34]

Sandy R's comment on low cost airlines being on the way out is terribly misguided. Ryanair may have pulled out of Prestwick, but at the same time they added even more new routes. It's not uncommon for airlines to review their policies, identify more lucrative routes and cull less profitable ones, and Ryanair have produced continuous growth. While Prestwick does have a train station, it still takes a fair bit longer than the 15 minute express bus to Glasgow Airport.

It could be argued that for the Stranraer line to be more justifiable there should be a Cairnryan port link with direct services from Glasgow, but that's a huge gamble even for a spur of a few km, if there's no guarantee people will take it up to go to Belfast, and people are very unlikely to SailRail from Glasgow to Dublin. Given only 2 people live in Cairnryan there isn't much of a local population to serve there either.

 

[najaB]

Given only 2 people live in Cairnryan there isn't much of a local population to serve there either.

Since we don't want to be accused of making up statistics, the population is actually about 100. Point still stands though.

 

[AlterEgo]

'........Low cost airlines are on the way out' - have you lost your marbles ?

Ryanair often change which airports they use, across the UK and Europe. As in any business, they need to ensure that the costs incurred can be easily outweighed by the profits made - Prestwick may not meet that criteria at the present time.

Heh.

Low cost airlines are definitely NOT on the way out. The rest of the industry is cannibalising their model, so much so that "low cost" is now the default option for the airline industry.

Even BA have hand baggage only fares, and the changes continue apace.

This is a tremendously misguided thread I'm afraid. However, I genuinely salute the dogged enthusiasm behind it.

 

[Sandy R]

There's a huge difference between a 10km spur and a 100km mainline.

You'll notice that the 10km spur didn't get built either.

Only because D&Galloway council is one of the most anti-rail councils in Scotland.
Has mostly been run over the last 20-odd years by Tories, independents (who are almost all Tories) or coalitions of the above, who are obsessed with dualling the A75 , (local MSP falls into that category too) don't realise we are past peak oil and are living in the past, all-wise, but specifically transport-wise.

The 6 mile spur wouldnt have been viable as a stand alone project.

Any closer to acknowledging the existence of the City bypass yet ?
And the tens of million it cost to breach and rebuild it ?

I'm not sure why you think the terrain of Galloway is much different to the terrain of the Borders, pretty similar id say.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

I sympathise with Sandy's frustration, this is clearly something he really believes in. However, he needs to understand that many of us on this forum see such proposals roll past us on a weekly if not daily basis. We're very familiar with the application of the rules quoted below. They were set out as early as post 15 on this thread and have been applied to this reinstatement at least twice before in my memory.

Altnabreac's 4 golden rules of a successful rail reopening:

Population of 10,000+

60 minutes (75 at a push) journey time of a major employment centre.

Extant or mainly unobstructed trackbed

Ability to extend an existing service so more terminal capacity is not required.


Post 15 also explains why Dumfries-Stranraer fails by the rules. That's all that's happening on here. I'm sure the majority of us would like to see the line reinstated, but we can see that it doesn't stack up.

If it helps add perspective, or convince Sandy that we're not all biased against Dumfries & Galloway, I've dug out another recent thread covering Strathmore. It bears similarities, even down to suggestions of a new route.

Small towns strung out, with a rural rather than post industrial economy, and for Dumfries read Perth. I'm not suggesting that Montrose and Stranraer are especially comparable, but you get the idea.

http://www.railforums.co.uk/showthread.php?t=130535

If anything a less favourable conclusion was reached.

I do wish the petitioner well. He's clearly a committed campaigner and maybe the project's day will come eventually. In the meantime, the best way of making it a reality is to ensure that as many people as possible are using Dumfries and Stranraer stations in their present form, getting Nithsdale electrified and reopening Beattock station. If I lived in Dumfries that's what I'd be campaigning for right now.

Others are campaigning for those things already.

As ive said , your 4 rules are fair enough, but D-S is unique in Scotland in that it effectively links 3 countries, is a rail alternative to the A75 Euroroute , part of a continent wide link which stretches from Belfast to Barcelona.

It is much more than a commuter railway for D&g. Were it that only, it wouldn't be worth the time it takes me to type this.

BUt it isn't.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Heh.

Low cost airlines are definitely NOT on the way out. The rest of the industry is cannibalising their model, so much so that "low cost" is now the default option for the airline industry.

Even BA have hand baggage only fares, and the changes continue apace.

This is a tremendously misguided thread I'm afraid. However, I genuinely salute the dogged enthusiasm behind it.

I meant in terms of domestic travel.

VWC/ VEC are capturing more and more of the modal share between rail/air Edin/Glas and London every year.

The trend is away from air to rail. And the Port road can feed into that.

 

[Philip Phlopp]

However, I genuinely salute the dogged enthusiasm behind it.

You have to, it's infectious.

It's not sometimes the most fun having to inject reality into these threads, and in an ideal world, there's no question that the best option would be to use swapbodies, piggybacks and rolling roads to get freight to Cairnryan, particularly freight ultimately destined for continental Europe.

It's unfortunate that there are so many practicalities which prevent that from happening.

 

[Sandy R]

Why do you think it didn't happen ?

There's no containerised freight using the port which could have used an intermodal service, there's not enough freight which could be containerised or switched to swap-body freight, and there's not enough freight which could swap to piggyback freight.

You only need to go to the port and look at the freight to understand why this proposal didn't float then and won't float now.

Can you explain (totally unloaded question) why the freight travelling thru Cairnryan cannot be carried by rail ?
Surely a proportion of it is suitable ?
Supermarket traffic ?
Eg Tesco ?
I happen to know that NI Co-op's are fed from the EuroCentral hub on the M8.

While im NOT suggesting THAT PARTICULAR FLOW, what I am saying is that there must be some suitable similar traffic in sufficient bulk that could be carried by rail ?

 

[najaB]

...don't realise we are past peak oil and are living in the past...

Sadly, non-conventional oil has pushed the peak out by ten to twenty years.

The 6 mile spur wouldnt have been viable as a stand alone project.

If there was any significant containerised freight to take advantage of it, yes. But there isn't.

Any closer to acknowledging the existence of the City bypass yet ? And the tens of million it cost to breach and rebuild it?

That has never been denied. But in the grand scheme of things it didn't actually cost that much in railway terms.

I'm not sure why you think the terrain of Galloway is much different to the terrain of the Borders, pretty similar id say.

Erm, ever heard of terrain maps?

 

[Sandy R]

I pointed out several pages ago that the official figures show that the number of containers shipped via Cairn Ryan in 2014 was ... zero.

(Some will have passed on lorries I'll accept.)

Strangely Sandy R never responded to that fact.

I'll engage with anyone who has something sensible/informative/knowledgable /constructive to say.
That counts you out.

 

[6Gman]

Can you explain (totally unloaded question) why the freight travelling thru Cairnryan cannot be carried by rail ?
Surely a proportion of it is suitable ?
Supermarket traffic ?
Eg Tesco ?
I happen to know that NI Co-op's are fed from the EuroCentral hub on the M8.

While im NOT suggesting THAT PARTICULAR FLOW, what I am saying is that there must be some suitable similar traffic in sufficient bulk that could be carried by rail ?

Some of the traffic could (probably) be carried by rail. Whether it would be viable I doubt.

Where does it come from? Where is it going?

I have no idea, but suspect it's quite dispersed. You have been researching the subject for four years - can you tell us?

 

[Sandy R]

Sadly, non-conventional oil has pushed the peak out by ten to twenty years.
If there was any significant containerised freight to take advantage of it, yes. But there isn't.
That has never been denied. But in the grand scheme of things it didn't actually cost that much in railway terms.
Erm, ever heard of terrain maps?

Non-conventional oil isn't happening in Scotland, and wont happen south of the border either.

The cost of the City bypass diversion was astronomical. (cant find exact sums, but its acknowledged that it was a big percentage of the total project cost)
.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Sadly, non-conventional oil has pushed the peak out by ten to twenty years.
If there was any significant containerised freight to take advantage of it, yes. But there isn't.
That has never been denied. But in the grand scheme of things it didn't actually cost that much in railway terms.
Erm, ever heard of terrain maps?

Only 19.5 miles of the total route mileage was thru 'difficult' terrain, CD to Drummore.
The rest (the vast majority) was near-coastal (tho not near enough to be flood prone) reasonably flat, with one or two notable exceptions ,e.g 1 in 70 for a short section at Kircowan, so not particularly difficult.

I'll just away and check the gradients on the Borders line.
Flat as a pancake ? I severely doubt it.

 

[Philip Phlopp]

Can you explain (totally unloaded question) why the freight travelling thru Cairnryan cannot be carried by rail ?
Surely a proportion of it is suitable ?
Supermarket traffic ?
Eg Tesco ?
I happen to know that NI Co-op's are fed from the EuroCentral hub on the M8.

While im NOT suggesting THAT PARTICULAR FLOW, what I am saying is that there must be some suitable similar traffic in sufficient bulk that could be carried by rail ?

There's a lot of freight which is going over the Irish Sea which is bulk limited rather than weight limited - it's going over in 4.2+ metre high trailers, with a lot in the 5m trailers. There's also a lot of freight going across ready for distribution to stores, in the case of Argos, B&Q, ASDA etc, which would need to be consolidated and then re-loaded on the Irish side, which adds cost.

 

[najaB]

Non-conventional oil isn't happening in Scotland, and wont happen south of the border either.

I wouldn't bet on either of those statements remaining true for long. Regardless, it is happening elsewhere, Iran is back in the market and widespread demand reduction measures mean that the peak is in the future rather than in the past.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

The cost of the City bypass diversion was astronomical. (cant find exact sums, but its acknowledged that it was a big percentage of the total project cost).

Given that the direct construction costs were £294M it couldn't be *that* astronomical.

 

[Sandy R]

I wouldn't bet on either of those statements remaining true for long. Regardless, it is happening elsewhere, Iran is back in the market and widespread demand reduction measures mean that the peak is in the future rather than in the past.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Given that the direct construction costs were £294M it couldn't be *that* astronomical.

It's banned in Scotland, hasn't happened yet in England, and wont because of fierce local opposition.

Astronomical as a percentage of the total project cost.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

There's a lot of freight which is going over the Irish Sea which is bulk limited rather than weight limited - it's going over in 4.2+ metre high trailers, with a lot in the 5m trailers. There's also a lot of freight going across ready for distribution to stores, in the case of Argos, B&Q, ASDA etc, which would need to be consolidated and then re-loaded on the Irish side, which adds cost.

Re Asda etc, couldn't that be bulk hauled by train from the Central Belt (ie consolidated there) then split at Stranraer . there would be no need to consolidate it on the Irish side as it would then be going direct to store by lorry ?
Taking the supermarket example, Tesco at Livingston, Co-op at Eurocentral, not that far apart, other supermarkets hae Scottish distribution centres in the Central Belt presumably, so consolidation there would be fairly easy due to their proximity.
And as I said , massive timber extraction here, BSW sawmill adjacent to the trackbed at Edingham, Dabeattie. And not all the timber is locally sourced.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Let me find a project in Western Australia I can childishly slag off ......

Or perhaps you would say its none of my business ?

Touche.

Certainly, glad to oblige. Perhaps you would like to look at the Port Hedland to Marble Bar Railway, that closed in 1951. Every so often, optimistic debates surface then subside about viability of reopening that line.

 

[najaB]

It's banned in Scotland...

The vote was very close and non-binding. I can see a future vote going the other way.

...hasn't happened yet in England, and wont because of fierce local opposition.

The local groups are vociferous, but don't have any real teeth. When the price of crude goes back up above $75/bbl local authorities will find it difficult to say no to the revenue flow into their stretched coffers. Just watch what happens to public opinion when the price of petrol heads up and beyond £1.50/l.

Re Asda etc, couldn't that be bulk hauled by train from the Central Belt (ie consolidated there) then split at Stranraer.

Could, but that requires construction of a fairly large railfreight terminal - making the whole scheme even more expensive.

Meanwhile, there is a rail-connected port in the northwest of England with extant ferry service to Belfast. Seeing as most of the goods actually come up from ports in England, it's quite a detour to get to Stranraer.

 

[AndyW33]

Re Asda etc, couldn't that be bulk hauled by train from the Central Belt (ie consolidated there) then split at Stranraer . there would be no need to consolidate it on the Irish side as it would then be going direct to store by lorry ?
Taking the supermarket example, Tesco at Livingston, Co-op at Eurocentral, not that far apart, other supermarkets hae Scottish distribution centres in the Central Belt presumably, so consolidation there would be fairly easy due to their proximity.

Well yes,a lot of it could, but since there is already a perfectly serviceable rail link from the Central Belt to Stranraer, it begs the question of why it isn't done now and has never been, given the availability of freight facilities grants and so on. I think the answer is that the cost of the road haulage element is only part of the equation. Every time goods are loaded and unloaded and sorted in a distribution depot a cost is added. That's derived from the labour cost of doing it, the cost of the equipment used for the loading, unloading, and sorting, the buildings this is done in, breakages, that you need a set of rail vehicles and a set of road vehicles instead of just one sort, time costs such as extra stock in the distribution chain because one more unload/sort/reload cycle is going to slow the whole process, and so on.
At the moment I suspect that the vast majority of goods sold in NI supermarkets (or Scottish ones) don't originate in Scotland, they come from England or mainland Europe, or even further away, so you'd need to bulk haul them to the Central Belt depots, which to be fair is what happens for stock destined to be sold in Scotland, then partly break bulk, load them onto trains to take them to Stranraer, break bulk down to store level, and put them on trailers to go to the stores.
As an example, Heinz brand tinned goods are made in a factory at Wigan. Right now supermarket depots in NW England receive truckloads of these, build loads for individual stores in NI, along with all sorts of other non-perishable stock, and the trailer is hauled direct to Cairnryan, the driver turns round and takes the next empty trailer back, while ferry staff load the trailers onto the next boat. When the boat arrives in NI, a local driver hooks on to the trailer and does the delivery. Just one breaking of bulk. And that's before we start talking about truckloads of perishables, which do flow in both directions, and where speed and controlled temperatures are vital.

 

[OxtedL]

Re Asda etc, couldn't that be bulk hauled by train from the Central Belt (ie consolidated there) then split at Stranraer . there would be no need to consolidate it on the Irish side as it would then be going direct to store by lorry ?
Taking the supermarket example, Tesco at Livingston, Co-op at Eurocentral, not that far apart, other supermarkets hae Scottish distribution centres in the Central Belt presumably, so consolidation there would be fairly easy due to their proximity.
And as I said , massive timber extraction here, BSW sawmill adjacent to the trackbed at Edingham, Dabeattie. And not all the timber is locally sourced.

Consolidation is not the problem - it is the cost of splitting it up again that is the barrier. Handling it that additional time adds cost, whether in Stranraer or in Northern Ireland.

Some chains do already have distribution centres in Northern Ireland, for instance Google suggests Tesco have bases in Belfast and Antrim, and Co-op have a base in Carrickfergus. This'll be because they are big enough to do so. However, they may not ship things over from Central Belt or English distribution centres en masse, instead getting deliveries direct from individual suppliers to again reduce the number of times they are handling stuff themselves and keep costs down.

Collecting together enough scale to run a freight train to Stranraer is a very difficult proposition - the comparable freight that we have already is: to and from major container ports, where it is reasonably certain a big container ship will dock from time to time and need containers being moved; or the Tesco trains, where one company is sufficiently confident about the volume of things it needs to move that it funds a train. Neither could really apply at Cairnryan.

 

[6Gman]

I'll engage with anyone who has something sensible/informative/knowledgable /constructive to say.
That counts you out.

Well, I spent twenty years as a train planner on the railway. (That's paid work; for a living; planning train services)

Including several years in the freight business.

So I've clearly nothing "informative/knowledgable" to contribute.



You're a very rude man Sandy R.

 

[ian959]

There is no 'demand'. Its a proposal.

My apologies, it is the newspaper saying that you demand the reopening of the line...

And how does asking to see a copy of your feasibility study constitute "slagging off"?

Seems you have an extremely blinkered view of this proposal of yours and are progressively rejecting the considered views of people who actually DO know their stuff about the railways (I hasten to add, not me).