'then I could see Dumfries-Stranraer being on the table for reopening. '
That'll do me.
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'no passenger benefits that couldn't be achieved at a tiny fraction of the cost by targeted bus improvements '
Miraculously, this applies only to D&G, not the Borders ?
'There is no freight of any significance ....'
There is ZERO freight on the Borders line.
'wildly optimistic cost of £500M'
I said £550-600 m. Check back. And in light of some of the info on here, I would now revise that upwards somewhat. But not to 'billions' (your quote).
'50 new buses and £495M left to spend elsewhere on the rail network.'
For that read either 'Im not from D&G and want the money spent on my pet project' and/or ' Borders deserves a railway, and £354-£400 million spent on it, but Galloway doesn't and can just have a few extra buses at £5 million.'
'Conon Bridge wouldn't have been built if not for the refurbishment work on the Kessock bridge.'
Corrrect. Stow ?
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Re the cost I DID not mention it was cheaper because of the 'extant trackbed.' Why would I ? The Borders line had an extant trackbed.
I'll put it all in the one go.
1. No city bypass to redirect/rebuild. This was a huge percentage of the cost of the Borders line.
2. Cheaper land costs.
3. Less multiple crossings of rivers etc. (How many times does the Borders line cross/recross the Tweed ?)
4. Economies of scale. A 65 miles line does not cost 2.1 times the cost of a 30.75 mile line. It costs less.
5. One station per 12 miles, rather than one station per 4.4 miles (average) on the Borders line equals less cost per mile.
6. Less dynamic loops/Passing loops per mile as the line would not have a half hourly service, again , less cost per mile.
7. No mine workings to fill in (another cost of the Borders line, re Monktonhall, very expensive).
Etc etc etc.
The Borders Railway (in my view) had demonstrably more passenger demand potential than Dumfries-Stranraer ever will.
The point is that the Borders railway did not *need* a freight flow for its case to stand up - D-S has such low passenger benefits that it *would* need freight benefits to stand half a chance - and those benefits aren't really there either.
Borders is about taking demand off a heavily congested section of the A7 (much more congested than the A75) into a major employment centre (Edinburgh, considerably larger than Dumfries) from an area that is moderately denselely populated (Galashiels, etc) or has potential for new, rail connected housing development for people to live in whilst commuting to Edinburgh. Other than Newton Stewart, I don't think there are other notable population centres over the vast distance this line would serve.
In short, the passenger demand potential on D-S is nowhere near the level on Borders, ergo no benefits to be had.