• Our new ticketing site is now live! Using either this or the original site (both powered by TrainSplit) helps support the running of the forum with every ticket purchase! Find out more and ask any questions/give us feedback in this thread!

Petition launched to demand re-opening of Dumfries-Stranraer railway line

Status
Not open for further replies.

Ianno87

Veteran Member
Joined
3 May 2015
Messages
15,214
'then I could see Dumfries-Stranraer being on the table for reopening. '

That'll do me.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---


'no passenger benefits that couldn't be achieved at a tiny fraction of the cost by targeted bus improvements '
Miraculously, this applies only to D&G, not the Borders ?

'There is no freight of any significance ....'
There is ZERO freight on the Borders line.

'wildly optimistic cost of £500M'

I said £550-600 m. Check back. And in light of some of the info on here, I would now revise that upwards somewhat. But not to 'billions' (your quote).

'50 new buses and £495M left to spend elsewhere on the rail network.'
For that read either 'Im not from D&G and want the money spent on my pet project' and/or ' Borders deserves a railway, and £354-£400 million spent on it, but Galloway doesn't and can just have a few extra buses at £5 million.'

'Conon Bridge wouldn't have been built if not for the refurbishment work on the Kessock bridge.'

Corrrect. Stow ?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---


Re the cost I DID not mention it was cheaper because of the 'extant trackbed.' Why would I ? The Borders line had an extant trackbed.

I'll put it all in the one go.

1. No city bypass to redirect/rebuild. This was a huge percentage of the cost of the Borders line.

2. Cheaper land costs.

3. Less multiple crossings of rivers etc. (How many times does the Borders line cross/recross the Tweed ?)

4. Economies of scale. A 65 miles line does not cost 2.1 times the cost of a 30.75 mile line. It costs less.

5. One station per 12 miles, rather than one station per 4.4 miles (average) on the Borders line equals less cost per mile.

6. Less dynamic loops/Passing loops per mile as the line would not have a half hourly service, again , less cost per mile.

7. No mine workings to fill in (another cost of the Borders line, re Monktonhall, very expensive).

Etc etc etc.

The Borders Railway (in my view) had demonstrably more passenger demand potential than Dumfries-Stranraer ever will.

The point is that the Borders railway did not *need* a freight flow for its case to stand up - D-S has such low passenger benefits that it *would* need freight benefits to stand half a chance - and those benefits aren't really there either.

Borders is about taking demand off a heavily congested section of the A7 (much more congested than the A75) into a major employment centre (Edinburgh, considerably larger than Dumfries) from an area that is moderately denselely populated (Galashiels, etc) or has potential for new, rail connected housing development for people to live in whilst commuting to Edinburgh. Other than Newton Stewart, I don't think there are other notable population centres over the vast distance this line would serve.

In short, the passenger demand potential on D-S is nowhere near the level on Borders, ergo no benefits to be had.
 
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R

RailUK Forums

najaB

Veteran Member
Joined
28 Aug 2011
Messages
32,291
Location
Scotland
For that read either 'Im not from D&G and want the money spent on my pet project' and/or ' Borders deserves a railway, and £354-£400 million spent on it, but Galloway doesn't and can just have a few extra buses at £5 million.'
The second argument would hold some relevance if we were choosing between the Borders Railway and Dumfries-Stranraer but we aren't. The Borders Railway is built. That money is spent. End of.

As to pet projects - the £550 to 600M you want to spend on D to S would pay for: Aberdeen-Inverness improvements, St Andrews and Levenmouth Railways, the Almond Chord and a significant portion of Montrose-Usan doubling.

Pot, kettle, black?
 

oldman

Member
Joined
26 Nov 2013
Messages
1,156
3. Less multiple crossings of rivers etc. (How many times does the Borders line cross/recross the Tweed ?)

Once, on an existing viaduct. You're maybe thinking of the Gala Water which is a bit cheaper to bridge. I imagine an east-west railway would have to cross a lot of rivers flowing south.
 

tbtc

Veteran Member
Joined
16 Dec 2008
Messages
17,884
Location
Reston City Centre
No disrespect to Sandy G, but it's pretty amazing that this left field subject has reached 111 posts when it fizzled out at 54 this time last year.

What's changed?

If available spend was Rail UK posts x £10m then we'd be away...

We've had over five hundred posts on a thread discussing the Welsh equivalent of this route (Carmarthen - Aberystwyth) - there seems to be quite an obsession with such quaint rural routes (see also Okehampton etc)

Even if the Borders line cost £400 million

Since you are persisting with your comparison to the Borders line (after telling us that we aren't allowed to compared your Galloway route to any other lines) then maybe you could tell us how much of your route you want to be single track, bearing in mind that the Borders line was descoped to have some long single track sections.

Would your Galloway line be mainly single track, since you only think there's demand for a train every couple of hours? OR mainly double track because of all of these freight trains that seemingly justify a billion pounds worth of spending?

In you realty nothing would have ever been built, we'd all be on horses and carts because everything would have been too much of a risk.
Don't cross the road tomorrow. Far too risky.
No ambition.

I love it when people play the "visionary" card :lol:

Yes, us disbelievers are naive not to realise just how many thousands of journeys a day will come from a railway line between a medium sized town and a relatively small town (through a pretty rural part of the country with no significant intermediate stations).

Freight formerly went via the Nith Valley and the S&C to keep it away from VWC services on the WCML, the extra distance is irrelevant in this case..

Exactly - the kind of freight that goes via rail can cope with diversions. Nobody is insisting on 125mph freight on the WCML because it's not time critical.

If it's a lorry/train from Belfast to Manchester/ London then an extra hour to go via Kilmarnock is fairly inconsequential - certainly not worth spending hundreds of millions of pounds on.

Re Kimarnock diversion,Would you drive 135 miles in your car to get.75 miles along the road,? Of course you wouldn't

Would you drive from London/ Manchester to Glasgow via Settle and Kilmarnock? Yet freight trains do these kind of meandering routes already and seem to cope...

You seem to believe that there's a huge market for freight trains between London/ Manchester and Cairnryan/ Belfast, but that only reason they aren't happening is the fact they'd currently have to go via Kilmarnock?

If the Belfast-Heysham ferry is the panacea to all the world's ills, why hasn't it been improved already ??

...because the problems with the A75 (that you are using as justification for this line) aren't significant enough to warrant spending huge sums of money on?

You've decided on your "solution" already, of course, but the rest of the world doesn't seem to think that there's a big enough "problem" to justify it.

Nobody is going to build a new railway with 1tp4h frequency. That is delusional.

Fact :lol:

1,279 people in 10 1/2 days disagree with you.

122 per day.

By the time I finish typing this response the number will be up.

If Facebook petitions were any guide to anything then we might as well give up...

How many of these people blindly clicking links and bothering their friends with requests are actually in Galloway btw?

The Dumfries-Lockerbie petition has gathered just 789 since May 2nd, that's 89 days.

Are there more cars clogging up Dumfries from Lockerbie or Stranraer? Because the Lockerbie - Dumfries commute seems a lot more reasonable to me.

Lockerbie - Dumfries - two or three buses per hour
Stranraer - Dumfries - a bus every couple of hours on average?

As well as the fact that a Lockerbie link gives Dumfries people faster/ better access to the job markets of Edinburgh/ Glasgow.

IF you could get from Dumfries to Edinburgh/ Glasgow/ Stranraer in about 1h30 (which would be the case if both lines were built - one to Stranraer, one to Lockerbie) then which do you think would see more people commuting? That puts Dumfries in roughly the Dundee bracket, in terms of commuting time to the Capital - could be a game changer!

Sometimes things get done that don't look good on paper, look unfeasible, but are wanted, through determination, desire and will.

Sometimes things that don't look good on paper and look unfeasible are a complete waste of time... ;)

As ive already said if the Scottish government can find £3 billion (albeit over 13/14 years) to dual the A9 in its entirety in a rural area, a quarter of that can be spent here.

Have you compared the population of Inverness to the population of Stranraer?

The A9 goes through a "rural area" to one of the biggest cities in Scotland. The A75 goes through a "rural area" to a town with about ten thousand people.

No contest.

Ive never proposed electrification, wouldn't have a hope in hell of happening with those extra costs added in.

I've never proposed electrification, you did


I live in Dumfries and at peak times traffic is bad.
I for one don't want to see a single extra car parking space in Dumfries just encouraging more traffic into the town, we live in the 21 st century now, and should be looking at greener alternatives

Shoot for the moon.

If you're going to play the "green" card then you might as well demand a double track electrified Stranraer line on a 100mph alignment. It's got the same chance as happening...

Alloa (pop19,000 approx) has a an hourly , to be increased to half hourly ALLEGEDLY) service.
The combined pops of CD, Dalbeattie, Kirkcudbright are 13,000 , with surrounding areas, 16,000 which may just about support that

Alloa is a reasonably densely populated town eight miles from Stirling, with a commercial bus at least every ten minutes.

The combined populations of the places you mention are spread over a wide area, which lack the population density to make mass transportation viable.

Id mistakenly thought this was a PRO-rail forum. How naïve of me, eh ?

Fact.

There are many other reasons, such as social inclusion, transport poverty, stopping rural depopulation etc etc that I haven't even mentioned so far

"Social Inclusion" and "Transport Poverty" tend to be on the long list of conveniently unquantifiable exterior benefits that are used to prop up a weak argument on here.

some of which is seen from either an urban viewpoint or in some cases, people who haven't a clue about D&G, and comment from people who don't even live in Scotland

Wait - I thought that this was a UK-wide strategic scheme that would link Belfast to Newcastle/ Manchester/ London etc?

I didn't realise there was a "you're not from round here" qualification?
 

clc

Established Member
Joined
31 Oct 2011
Messages
1,308
When Levenmouth, Peterhead and St Andrews are back on the network, Glasgow crossrail has been completed, the Lentran loop is up and running, Aberdeen to Inverness and the HML have improved/doubled, the GSW has been electrified as has Glasgow to Inverness and Edinburgh to Aberdeen, the Almond chord and Greenhill flying junction have been in use for a while and the Fife Bypass line is complete... then I could see Dumfries-Stranraer being on the table for reopening.

You missed out Alloa-Dunfermline, Renfrew, Penicuik, GARL, EARL, Edinburgh-Glasgow HSR, Inverkeithing-Perth HSR, Bridge of Weir, Grangemouth, Glasgow Botanics, Banchory and Hawick. :)
 

6Gman

Established Member
Joined
1 May 2012
Messages
8,802
'Billions' ??? Havers.

1,284 on the petition now.

Facebook page 1,963 likes.

Borders line, Stow station, Conon Bridge station, all financial basket cases, still got built because of local demand.

If you want to criticise a real basket case , have a look at the petition for Kirkby Stephen to Tebay. Lunacy.

1,287 and rising.......

People power.


What weight should be given to the collective wisdom of individual ignorance?
 

The Ham

Established Member
Joined
6 Jul 2012
Messages
11,010
This rail forum isn't the best place to make suggestions for new/reopening lines unless you can show a good well thought through case.

The only reason that it is so hard to get others to support an idea is if they can see the benefit having been persuaded. (Of course there will always be some in either camp that will not agree, until the government say that it is going ahead.)

The Okehampton reopening debate is a good case study, if you want a fighting chance to get others to agree with a proposal you have read through those arguments and put together a strong argument to deal with the objections.

As if you didn't have to deal with them on here then you are only going to have to deal with the same questions when you present your ideas to the industry (even if the politicians all just sign up to the idea).
 

Sandy R

Member
Joined
27 Jul 2016
Messages
85
3. Less multiple crossings of rivers etc. (How many times does the Borders line cross/recross the Tweed ?)

Once, on an existing viaduct. You're maybe thinking of the Gala Water which is a bit cheaper to bridge. I imagine an east-west railway would have to cross a lot of rivers flowing south.

My stake, I meant the Gala Water.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
This rail forum isn't the best place to make suggestions for new/reopening lines unless you can show a good well thought through case.

The only reason that it is so hard to get others to support an idea is if they can see the benefit having been persuaded. (Of course there will always be some in either camp that will not agree, until the government say that it is going ahead.)

The Okehampton reopening debate is a good case study, if you want a fighting chance to get others to agree with a proposal you have read through those arguments and put together a strong argument to deal with the objections.

As if you didn't have to deal with them on here then you are only going to have to deal with the same questions when you present your ideas to the industry (even if the politicians all just sign up to the idea).

Yes, that's fine.
But all I'm Getting on here is complete negativity. Not one bit of support.
So you will say thats because its totally unfeasible.
But im the one who lives here, knows the area, the problems etc.

The people slamming this proposal on here have done next to zero research on this.
They cant possibly have done any because within MINUTES of the thread being started they had started criticising it.

Some of them know nothing about the area, nothing about the population demographics, travel patterns, levels of car ownership etc etc etc.

Ive done all that research already.

What applies to one railway reopening may roughly apply to another, but each one is unique.

Im merely pointing out that this line benefits from certain things that make it cheaper than other similar projects.

My main quibbles are with the overinflated prices some people are saying this project will cost, the fact that some see it as a threat to money being spent on projects in their area and people grossly underestimating demand for the line , and passenger demand on it.

People on here should know that the passenger forecasting models used by the industry are a joke.
E.g Alloa, first year forecast demand 155,000, actual around 400,000
(Before everybody jumps down my throat, that is from memory, approximate)

The people posting on this thread were never open to the idea of being persuaded, they made an instant 'basket case 'decision and have stubbornly stuck to that despite some evidence to the contrary because some people just don't like to admit they are wrong, or that they can be proved wrong.

I have learnt some stuff from here, I had [possibly underestimated the size of the task.

But if 30 miles of line can be built in Scotland , then 65 miles can be built.

Im NOT promoting this project over others, but alongside.

This will be about the third time ive said that Leven, Ellon/Buchan , Brechin etc are all good projects too.
Leven is no.1 priority in Scotland for rail reopenings.

BUt if the Aberdeen City deal is going to spend money rebuilding a line to a town of 10,000 people then NOBODY can say the Galloway line is unviable.

Other should be so generous.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
The Borders Railway (in my view) had demonstrably more passenger demand potential than Dumfries-Stranraer ever will.

The point is that the Borders railway did not *need* a freight flow for its case to stand up - D-S has such low passenger benefits that it *would* need freight benefits to stand half a chance - and those benefits aren't really there either.

Borders is about taking demand off a heavily congested section of the A7 (much more congested than the A75) into a major employment centre (Edinburgh, considerably larger than Dumfries) from an area that is moderately denselely populated (Galashiels, etc) or has potential for new, rail connected housing development for people to live in whilst commuting to Edinburgh. Other than Newton Stewart, I don't think there are other notable population centres over the vast distance this line would serve.

In short, the passenger demand potential on D-S is nowhere near the level on Borders, ergo no benefits to be had.

The Borders is not 'moderately densely populated'
Borders population, 102,000, Galashiels 14,000
D&Galloway pop 149,500 Dumfries 43.000

You miss Dalbeattie and Castle Douglas , both bigger than Newton Stewart.

I realise passenger demand would not be as high as the Borders line, ive never said it would be.

Re freight my point is a if a line with no, or next to no, freight potential can be built, then one with potential could be built. I haven't mentioned themassive timber extraction here and the BSW sawmill at Dalbeattie ADJACENT to the old formation.
 

Sandy R

Member
Joined
27 Jul 2016
Messages
85
This rail forum isn't the best place to make suggestions for new/reopening lines unless you can show a good well thought through case.

The only reason that it is so hard to get others to support an idea is if they can see the benefit having been persuaded. (Of course there will always be some in either camp that will not agree, until the government say that it is going ahead.)

The Okehampton reopening debate is a good case study, if you want a fighting chance to get others to agree with a proposal you have read through those arguments and put together a strong argument to deal with the objections.

As if you didn't have to deal with them on here then you are only going to have to deal with the same questions when you present your ideas to the industry (even if the politicians all just sign up to the idea).

I would argue it is a good well thought through case.

As I have now said repeatedly, im not saying its the best case , or the most viable one, but that in light of a line being built for 31 miles to a town of 14,000 people, with a station on it serving a few hundred, and an expensive two-platform station at that, and talk of 14 miles of line to serve Ellon, 10,000 population, then this line comes into the ballpar.
The 56,000 population of Galloway have ONE station at the extreme west end, the combined factors of local traffic, tourist traffic , through traffic to northern England and some freight , local, national and international make it a project at least worth investigating.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
The Aberdeen City Deal is only £250m and there's no commitment to reopen any railway lines: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploa...498891/Signed_Heads_of_Terms_January_2016.pdf

Quote...

26. 'COMMITTMENT. A transport appraisal, supported by both Governments and local partners, will take a long term strategic view of all the transport implications of the investment unlocked by this deal across modes including road and RAIL.'

Any reading the Press and Journal or the railway industry press knows that Ellon re-opening is being pushed by NERSTRANS as part of the deal.
And the £250 million is just the first tranche of money.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
What weight should be given to the collective wisdom of individual ignorance?

What weight should be given to cynicism/sarcasm/negativity ?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
The Aberdeen City Deal is only £250m and there's no commitment to reopen any railway lines: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploa...498891/Signed_Heads_of_Terms_January_2016.pdf

NESTRANS, typo.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
The second argument would hold some relevance if we were choosing between the Borders Railway and Dumfries-Stranraer but we aren't. The Borders Railway is built. That money is spent. End of.

As to pet projects - the £550 to 600M you want to spend on D to S would pay for: Aberdeen-Inverness improvements, St Andrews and Levenmouth Railways, the Almond Chord and a significant portion of Montrose-Usan doubling.

Pot, kettle, black?

'Scotland'
Where in Scotland ?
 

Xenophon PCDGS

Veteran Member
Joined
17 Apr 2011
Messages
34,063
Location
A typical commuter-belt part of north-west England
The 56,000 population of Galloway have ONE station at the extreme west end, the combined factors of local traffic, tourist traffic , through traffic to northern England and some freight , local, national and international make it a project at least worth investigating.

The town of any size nearest to where I live is that of Macclesfield which also has a total population of 56,000 so your figure of a total population of 56,000 for the whole area of Galloway shows that it is not exactly an area of large statistical population density.

You mention tourist traffic and comparison to that can be drawn to the recent thread that on this website to reintroduce rail back to the area of the Lake District that was once carrying rail traffic from the Cumbrian coast to the West Coast Main Line. That thread is the "Penrith to Keswick" thread that is actually still running on the Infrastructure and Stations foruml
 
Last edited:

Sandy R

Member
Joined
27 Jul 2016
Messages
85
This rail forum isn't the best place to make suggestions for new/reopening lines unless you can show a good well thought through case.

The only reason that it is so hard to get others to support an idea is if they can see the benefit having been persuaded. (Of course there will always be some in either camp that will not agree, until the government say that it is going ahead.)

The Okehampton reopening debate is a good case study, if you want a fighting chance to get others to agree with a proposal you have read through those arguments and put together a strong argument to deal with the objections.

As if you didn't have to deal with them on here then you are only going to have to deal with the same questions when you present your ideas to the industry (even if the politicians all just sign up to the idea).

I agree.

I didn't start this conversation, someone shared the petition on here, and I was sent an email informing me.

I do however feel duty bound to respond to some of the ridiculous inaccuracies, assumptions, and to be honest , in SOME cases, total ignorance of the area and the railway.
 

najaB

Veteran Member
Joined
28 Aug 2011
Messages
32,291
Location
Scotland
The people slamming this proposal on here have done next to zero research on this.
They cant possibly have done any because within MINUTES of the thread being started they had started criticising it.
Actually, we didn't need to do any research as the same idea was proposed about a year ago. It had exactly the same problems back then as it does now.
Some of them know nothing about the area, nothing about the population demographics, travel patterns, levels of car ownership etc etc etc.
The only one of those that matters is the population, and the population of D&G is too thinly spread to support a railway. Yes, the total population is comparable to the Borders, but the towns (well villages really) aren't close enough to the route of the line. People don't like modal switches.

What applies to one railway reopening may roughly apply to another, but each one is unique.
You're the one who keeps making comparisons to the Borders railway, not us.

Im merely pointing out that this line benefits from certain things that make it cheaper than other similar projects.
No, it doesn't. And repeating it doesn't make it true.

My main quibbles are with the overinflated prices some people are saying this project will cost, the fact that some see it as a threat to money being spent on projects in their area and people grossly underestimating demand for the line , and passenger demand on it.

People on here should know that the passenger forecasting models used by the industry are a joke.
Again, the estimates have come from people who do this for a living. They aren't overestimating, you are underestimating. As to passenger forecasting models, they are deliberately pessimistic - there would be nothing more likely to kill future projects than the numbers being significantly less than predicted and the inevitable 'white elephant' stories.

The people posting on this thread were never open to the idea of being persuaded, they made an instant 'basket case 'decision and have stubbornly stuck to that despite some evidence to the contrary because some people just don't like to admit they are wrong, or that they can be proved wrong.
The person posting most often on this thread was never open to the idea of being persuaded, they made an instant 'viable scheme 'decision and have stubbornly stuck to that despite some evidence to the contrary because some people just don't like to admit they are wrong, or that they can be proved wrong.

Im NOT promoting this project over others, but alongside.

This will be about the third time ive said that Leven, Ellon/Buchan , Brechin etc are all good projects too.
Leven is no.1 priority in Scotland for rail reopenings.

BUt if the Aberdeen City deal is going to spend money rebuilding a line to a town of 10,000 people then NOBODY can say the Galloway line is unviable.
The problem is that there is only a limited pot of money. Nobody has said that Stranraer to Dumfries is impossible to build, nor that it wouldn't be used. However, it has to be a long way down the list based on it's exceedingly poor BCR compared to the other projects. I would place it at least #15, and that isn't because I have 'pet projects'.

The Borders is not 'moderately densely populated'
Borders population, 102,000, Galashiels 14,000
D&Galloway pop 149,500 Dumfries 43.000

You miss Dalbeattie and Castle Douglas , both bigger than Newton Stewart.
Again, it is moderately densely populated. The 2011 Census gives a density of 24 people/sq km - exactly the same as The Borders. But, unlike the borders, the settlements aren't close to your proposed route.

I realise passenger demand would not be as high as the Borders line, ive never said it would be.
Once again, the problem isn't comparisons to the Borders railway as that is built, the money is spent. The problem is comparison to the numbers that will be generated by the other projects that would be competing for the limited pot of money. You need to explain why Dumfries-Stranraer should be prioritised over those projects, or put up with the fact that it will be a long time before it happens. Network Rail has already published their priorities out to CP10 and the only way D-S Rail will get on there is by pushing something else out.
Re freight my point is a if a line with no, or next to no, freight potential can be built, then one with potential could be built. I haven't mentioned themassive timber extraction here and the BSW sawmill at Dalbeattie ADJACENT to the old formation.
You keep talking freight potential, but there is almost none. There is virtually no container traffic on Belfast-Stranraer route (certainly I could count on one hand the number of containers I've ever seen at Cairnryan). Even if there was, there's already a railway connection to Stranraer that could be gauge cleared much more cheaply, and a rail-connected port that already has ferry service from Belfast.

I can only speak for myself, but I'm not replying to your posts out of malice or because I take pleasure in shooting people's ideas down. The objections I've raised are the same anyone attempting to progress a scheme will face from the Government and Network Rail (among others). And I hate to say it, but most of your argument is based on faith and belief than on any actual numbers. Fact.
 

Sandy R

Member
Joined
27 Jul 2016
Messages
85
The town of any size nearest to where I live is that of Macclesfield which also has a total population of 56,000 so your figure of a total population of 56,000 for the whole area of Galloway shows that it is not exactly an area of large statistical population density.

You mention tourist traffic and comparison to that can be drawn to the recent thread that on this website to reintroduce rail back to the area of the Lake District that was once carrying rail traffic from the Cumbrian coast to the West Coast Main Line.

Dumfries has a population of around 43,000, is by far the largest town, not just in D&g , but in the entire South of Scotland as defined by D&g and the Borders.
As such it has a 'draw' way beyond its size, as a regional hub.

That is why people comparing it to , say, Coatbridge , is ridiculous, because people from Coatbridge commute to glasgow, whereas a large proportion of the population of D&g commute to Dumfries, sometimes considerable distances. I already mentioned students from Stranarer facing 2 1/2 hours on a bus to D&g College.

Therefore, despite the lack of large towns in Galloway, a much higher than average proportion of these people will travel a distance to work, creating much higher than average demand for a town of Dumfries's size were it situated in the urban Central Belt.

That's one reason why the passenger usage would be much more than suggested by the posters on here.
 

najaB

Veteran Member
Joined
28 Aug 2011
Messages
32,291
Location
Scotland
'Scotland'
Where in Scotland ?
If you're referring to my location, what difference does it make if I choose not to be specific? Not somewhere that would benefit from any of the projects I listed, if that's what you're thinking.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Dumfries has a population of around 43,000, is by far the largest town, not just in D&g , but in the entire South of Scotland as defined by D&g and the Borders.
As such it has a 'draw' way beyond its size, as a regional hub.
You realise that makes your case worse, not better? If such a large portion of the population of D&G is already in its biggest settlement, where's the traffic coming from/to in order to support the railway?
 

Sandy R

Member
Joined
27 Jul 2016
Messages
85
Actually, we didn't need to do any research as the same idea was proposed about a year ago. It had exactly the same problems back then as it does now.
The only one of those that matters is the population, and the population of D&G is too thinly spread to support a railway. Yes, the total population is comparable to the Borders, but the towns (well villages really) aren't close enough to the route of the line. People don't like modal switches.

You're the one who keeps making comparisons to the Borders railway, not us.

No, it doesn't. And repeating it doesn't make it true.

Again, the estimates have come from people who do this for a living. They aren't overestimating, you are underestimating. As to passenger forecasting models, they are deliberately pessimistic - there would be nothing more likely to kill future projects than the numbers being significantly less than predicted and the inevitable 'white elephant' stories.

The person posting most often on this thread was never open to the idea of being persuaded, they made an instant 'viable scheme 'decision and have stubbornly stuck to that despite some evidence to the contrary because some people just don't like to admit they are wrong, or that they can be proved wrong.

The problem is that there is only a limited pot of money. Nobody has said that Stranraer to Dumfries is impossible to build, nor that it wouldn't be used. However, it has to be a long way down the list based on it's exceedingly poor BCR compared to the other projects. I would place it at least #15, and that isn't because I have 'pet projects'.

Again, it is moderately densely populated. The 2011 Census gives a density of 24 people/sq km - exactly the same as The Borders. But, unlike the borders, the settlements aren't close to your proposed route.

Once again, the problem isn't comparisons to the Borders railway as that is built, the money is spent. The problem is comparison to the numbers that will be generated by the other projects that would be competing for the limited pot of money. You need to explain why Dumfries-Stranraer should be prioritised over those projects, or put up with the fact that it will be a long time before it happens. Network Rail has already published their priorities out to CP10 and the only way D-S Rail will get on there is by pushing something else out.
You keep talking freight potential, but there is almost none. There is virtually no container traffic on Belfast-Stranraer route (certainly I could count on one hand the number of containers I've ever seen at Cairnryan). Even if there was, there's already a railway connection to Stranraer that could be gauge cleared much more cheaply, and a rail-connected port that already has ferry service from Belfast.

I can only speak for myself, but I'm not replying to your posts out of malice or because I take pleasure in shooting people's ideas down. The objections I've raised are the same anyone attempting to progress a scheme will face from the Government and Network Rail (among others). And I hate to say it, but most of your argument is based on faith and belief than on any actual numbers. Fact.

Who proposed it a year ago ??
 

MidnightFlyer

Veteran Member
Joined
16 May 2010
Messages
12,856
Limerick to Galway proves you wrong.

Except of course that line was just mothballed so reopening it was essentially a matter of clearing and relaying the line, and in fairness to them closing an awful lot of level crossings. Since it reopened it has already seen service cuts and I believe wasn't off the cards for closing again back when IE were in a really bad state a couple of years ago. The rest of the Western Corridor developments from what I can tell have been shelved and from my experiences of the line the quietest loadings were between Athenry and Ennis, the reopened section - the evening 'peak' departure from Galway had maybe 10 people in my carriage from Athenry, and the footfall at places like Gort and Ardrahan wasn't encouraging either.
 

clc

Established Member
Joined
31 Oct 2011
Messages
1,308
Quote...

26. 'COMMITTMENT. A transport appraisal, supported by both Governments and local partners, will take a long term strategic view of all the transport implications of the investment unlocked by this deal across modes including road and RAIL.'

Any reading the Press and Journal or the railway industry press knows that Ellon re-opening is being pushed by NERSTRANS as part of the deal.
And the £250 million is just the first tranche of money.


It's not the first tranche, £250m is the total City Deal funding. Perhaps you are thinking of the £500m figure quoted at the time of the City Deal announcement, however that amount included £250m for improvements to the ECML at Montrose and the A90 at Laurenckirk and these are separate from the City Deal.
 
Last edited:

Sandy R

Member
Joined
27 Jul 2016
Messages
85
If you're referring to my location, what difference does it make if I choose not to be specific? Not somewhere that would benefit from any of the projects I listed, if that's what you're thinking.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
You realise that makes your case worse, not better? If such a large portion of the population of D&G is already in its biggest settlement, where's the traffic coming from/to in order to support the railway?

Read the bit below.
Sneaky to cut out the bit that proves my point.

And if you don't stand to benefit from other proposals , why so coy about it ?

Im at least being honest about my location.

And as I live in Dumfries , which already has rail services, I cant be accused of it being my 'pet project'.
That would apply to someone in Dalbeattie or Newton for example.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Here you go, one year and 14 days ago.

'Does anyone think'......is hardly a concrete proposal.
 

najaB

Veteran Member
Joined
28 Aug 2011
Messages
32,291
Location
Scotland
Read the bit below.
Sneaky to cut out the bit that proves my point.
No, I read it. It doesn't prove your point - according to your own posts, Dumfries will be the destination of most journeys so you have to exclude the people that live there from your population numbers.
And if you don't stand to benefit from other proposals , why so coy about it ?
People who need to know where I live know where I live.
'Does anyone think'......is hardly a concrete proposal.
Neither is a Facebook page or online petition.
 

Sandy R

Member
Joined
27 Jul 2016
Messages
85
'But, unlike the borders, the settlements aren't close to your proposed route.'

Yes they are. Castle Douglas, Dalbeattie and Newton are all ON the route, Kirkcudbright close by.

'No, it doesn't. And repeating it doesn't make it true.'

Yes it does. It was true when I said it nad it's still true now.. Both you and Bald Rick refuse to acknowledge the existence of the City bypass, the higher land prices in Midlothian, the extra dynamic loops for a more intensive service, and the factor of more stations on a line less than half the length. The per mile cost of the Port Road would be much lower than the Borders line.

' the total population is comparable to the Borders'

No it isn't, its almost 50% higher. 149,500 compared to 102,000.

'well villages really'

4,500 people with a TOWN hall , a former TOWN council, a TOWN band etc etc isn't village.
Describing it as such is just a deliberate attempt to downplay the intermediate population.

'.As to passenger forecasting models, they are deliberately pessimistic'

Perhaps, but in the case of Alloa, and to a lesser extent Larkhall, Armadale etc etc they have been wildly underestimated /inaccurate as you well know.

'However, it has to be a long way down the list'

Ive acknowledged this 4 or perhaps 5 times now. You are arguing for its own sake now.
MY quote 'Leven is no.1 priority'.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
No, I read it. It doesn't prove your point - according to your own posts, Dumfries will be the destination of most journeys so you have to exclude the people that live there from your population numbers.
People who need to know where I live know where I live.
Neither is a Facebook page or online petition.

I said that Dumfries was a bigger regional draw than , say Coatbridge (nothing against Coatbridge, just an example)
My point being that the 4,500 population of Dalbeattie for example will naturally travel to Dumfries in higher numbers than usual because Dumfries is the ONLY big town in the area, therefore Dalbeattie will generate a higher usage than some similar sized towns elsewhere.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
No, I read it. It doesn't prove your point - according to your own posts, Dumfries will be the destination of most journeys so you have to exclude the people that live there from your population numbers.
People who need to know where I live know where I live.
Neither is a Facebook page or online petition.

There's a lot more to it than FB page.
Watch this space, as they say.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
It's not the first tranche, £250m is the total City Deal funding. Perhaps you are thinking of the £500m figure quoted at the time of the City Deal announcement, however that amount included £250m for improvements to the ECML at Montrose and the A90 at Laurenckirk and these are separate from the City Deal.

I understood the money to be more than that. Obviously I was thinking of the higher sum. Not much chance of Ellon from that amount of money unfortunately.
 

ian959

Member
Joined
9 May 2009
Messages
483
Location
Perth, Western Australia
Wow, 1299 signatures on the petition - not even 1% of the population of Galloway so far. Obviously one of the most important railway needs in the whole of Scotland...

So where might I find a copy of your feasibility report to back up your DEMAND to reopen the railway?
 

najaB

Veteran Member
Joined
28 Aug 2011
Messages
32,291
Location
Scotland
Yes they are. Castle Douglas, Dalbeattie and Newton are all ON the route, Kirkcudbright close by.
Based on the 2011 census: Castle Douglas (pop 4070), Dalbeattie (pop 4260), Newton (pop 4010) and Kirkcudbright (pop 3390) for a total of 15,730. Since you like making comparisons to the Borders Railway, the population of Galashiels was 14,760. One station on the Borders Railway has 93% of the potential passengers of the four biggest towns you've chosen to highlight on the Dumfries-Stranraer route.
The per mile cost of the Port Road would be much lower than the Borders line.
Sadly, that's not the case. The terrain is more challenging and the structures budget would be higher if you want to get W10 clearance (which you'll need for freight). And that's ignoring that the trackbed has been built on in many places.
No it isn't, its almost 50% higher. 149,500 compared to 102,000.
Again, using the 2011 Census - 103K vs 83K so only 25% higher.
Ive acknowledged this 4 or perhaps 5 times now. You are arguing for its own sake now.
I don't think you really appreciate just how far down the list it really is.
 

Sandy R

Member
Joined
27 Jul 2016
Messages
85
Here you go, one year and 14 days ago.

Kinda proves my point actually.
That post was at 19.43 on the day, and at 19.48 someone rubbished it.

5 minutes of research ???? From someone in Redcar ??

Ive been working on this on and off since October 2012, so at least credit me with more knowledge of the subject than some 5 minute naysayer.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Based on the 2011 census: Castle Douglas (pop 4070), Dalbeattie (pop 4260), Newton (pop 4010) and Kirkcudbright (pop 3390) for a total of 15,730. Since you like making comparisons to the Borders Railway, the population of Galashiels was 14,760. One station on the Borders Railway has 93% of the potential passengers of the four biggest towns you've chosen to highlight on the Dumfries-Stranraer route.
Sadly, that's not the case. The terrain is more challenging and the structures budget would be higher if you want to get W10 clearance (which you'll need for freight). And that's ignoring that the trackbed has been built on in many places.
Again, using the 2011 Census - 103K vs 83K so only 25% higher.
I don't think you really appreciate just how far down the list it really is.

NOt quibbling population stats, you said those towns were NOT ON THE ROUTE. Plain incorrect.

Ive already outlined the places the trackbed has been built on, less than a mile of a former 66 mile route is virtually nothing. and in places where the railway could simply run alongside the widened road, flat plains, eg Cairntop and just east of CD.

Utter rubbish..
The population of D&g is 149,000, Borders 102,000

No idea where you are getting those stats, don't even equate to voter/adult numbers, which for D&g are 116,000.

And I get accused of dodgy stats ??
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Population .

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dumfries_and_Galloway
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Population

2010 estimate 151,000. actual 2011 was 149,500

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dumfries_and_Galloway
 

daodao

Established Member
Joined
6 Feb 2016
Messages
3,332
Location
Dunham/Bowdon
The BCR for re-opening completely closed long-distance main lines in rural areas is inevitably low. Rail reopenings are best focussed on routes into major cities, and the Borders line falls into this category as a longer distance commuter route, rather that the main line that it was until closure in 1970.

Some examples which are in progress/complete were never completely closed but merely mothballed, e.g. Oxford-Bletchley and Athenry-Limerick; re-opening the Varsity line east of Bedford would be far more difficult.

It can be argued that there were a number of key routes that were possibly inappropriately closed as part of the Beeching axe in the period 1964-70, but it will be extremely difficult/expensive to try to resurrect them, and money/technical expertise doesn't grow on trees.

For example, re-opening the East Lincs line would be far more beneficial than reopening the "Port Road", both in terms of population served and connectivity to the UK's capital, but is unlikely to ever happen. At the time of its closure, there were 2 daily through restaurant car expresses from Grimsby/Cleethorpes to London - travel from these towns and the whole of East Lindsey and Boston to London is now far more difficult than it was when the line closed in 1970.
 
Last edited:

Sandy R

Member
Joined
27 Jul 2016
Messages
85
Wow, 1299 signatures on the petition - not even 1% of the population of Galloway so far. Obviously one of the most important railway needs in the whole of Scotland...

So where might I find a copy of your feasibility report to back up your DEMAND to reopen the railway?

Petition has been on for less than 14 days.

There is no 'demand'. Its a proposal.

I didn't say it was the most important railway need in Scotland.

I don't do feasibility studies, councils/Transport Scotland/Network Rail/Consultants do.

Let me find a project in Western Australia I can childishly slag off ......

Or perhaps you would say its none of my business ?

Touche.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
The BCR for opening long-distance main lines in rural areas is inevitably low. Rail reopenings are best focussed on routes into major cities, and the Borders line falls into this category as a longer distance commuter route, rather that the main line that it was until closure in 1970.

It can be argued that there were a number of key routes that were possibly inappropriately closed as part of the Beeching axe in the period 1964-70, but it will be extremely difficult/expensive to try to resurrect them, and money/technical expertise doesn't grow on trees.

For example, re-opening the East Lincs line would be far more beneficial than reopening the "Port Road", both in terms of population served and connectivity to the UK's capital, but is unlikely to ever happen. At the time of its closure, there were 2 daily through restaurant car expresses from Grimsby/Cleethorpes to London - travel from these towns and the whole of East Lindsey and Boston to London is now far more difficult than it was when the line closed in 1970.

'Main line'

Thanks for noticing that, perhaps others will do so now.

As ive said in previous posts, its usefulness goes beyond just a local commuter line. It would not be viable for that use alone.
 

najaB

Veteran Member
Joined
28 Aug 2011
Messages
32,291
Location
Scotland
You know what, I wish you luck in your campaign but it's clear to me that you were never open to the idea of being persuaded, have made an instant 'viable scheme 'decision and have stubbornly stuck to that despite some evidence to the contrary because some people just don't like to admit they are wrong, or that they can be proved wrong.

One last piece of advice - don't expect anything to happen with this idea before CP15 at the earliest.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
I don't do feasibility studies, councils/Transport Scotland/Network Rail/Consultants do.
And there's a reason that the Port Road hasn't featured on any of the rail feasibility studies which have been conducted over the last 20-plus years. But hey, what do experts know?
 

Sandy R

Member
Joined
27 Jul 2016
Messages
85
Wow, 1299 signatures on the petition - not even 1% of the population of Galloway so far. Obviously one of the most important railway needs in the whole of Scotland...

So where might I find a copy of your feasibility report to back up your DEMAND to reopen the railway?

Population of Galloway 56,000 therefore 1299 is 2.3%

Don't let the facts Get in the way.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Top