Proposed timetable for Chester to Liverpool via Runcorn service

[frodshamfella]

Fares wont be advertised until 2019 at the earliest. Transport for Wales have officially now said its delayed until at least May 2019 due to lack of rolling stock and posted on Keolis Amey thread in UK Railway Discussion. Its no surprise really as ATW are like other TOCs severely short of DMUs. Extra services are out of the question until its sorted.

Really......May , I though it was December.

 

[krus_aragon]

Really......May , I though it was December.

It was. But now it'll be May.

I suspect the news that two services will extend to Wrexham from launch are a sweetener that was concocted to distract from the bad news of having to postpone the introduction of the new service.

 

[frodshamfella]

It was. But now it'll be May.

I suspect the news that two services will extend to Wrexham from launch are a sweetener that was concocted to distract from the bad news of having to postpone the introduction of the new service.

Well they need to do something, wait to the press hear about it !

 

[Railman]

Does anyone know if the new service Chester to Liverpool via the Halton Chord will start in Dec??
Rumours of no rolling stock being the problem, but was it allowed under the "No December timetable changes" rules anyway??

 

[notlob.divad]

Does anyone know if the new service Chester to Liverpool via the Halton Chord will start in Dec??
Rumours of no rolling stock being the problem, but was it allowed under the "No December timetable changes" rules anyway??

https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/1875m-halton-curve-rail-relaunch-15193119

The launch of the £18.75m Halton Curve upgraded rail line between Chester and Liverpool has been delayed because of 'a lack of trains'.

Transport for Wales (TfW) said the opening, due to have been this December, is now not expected to take place until May next year because of a lack of rolling stock.

 

[krus_aragon]

Does anyone know if the new service Chester to Liverpool via the Halton Chord will start in Dec??
Rumours of no rolling stock being the problem, but was it allowed under the "No December timetable changes" rules anyway??

It was to be allowed, but rolling stock delays (class 769) mean that TfW have since announced it's been deferred to May 2019. There's some press coverage available here.

 

[frodshamfella]

It was to be allowed, but rolling stock delays (class 769) mean that TfW have since announced it's been deferred to May 2019. There's some press coverage available here.

Yes read an article local MP having ago at Grayling .
It is a ridiculous situation.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Yes read an article local MP having ago at Grayling .
It is a ridiculous situation.

It's nothing to do with Grayling.
If Scotrail and GWR had cascaded all the DMU stock they were supposed to with electrification, there wouldn't be a shortage.
Everything is running a year or more late, thanks to NR's electrification delays (and a few other problems within the industry's control).

 

[notlob.divad]

It's nothing to do with Grayling.

I would respectfully disagree. Everyone knows Wales and Borders has had a looming rolling stock problem caused by the looming PRM deadline and general overcrowding. Grayling defered all desicions on this claiming it was responsibility of the Welsh Assembly and the future franchisee, whilst simultaneously hindering the process of devolving the franchising process to the Welsh Assembly.

It was also Graylings decision that when the scope of the Elecctrification delays and budget overruns became apparent decided to entirely scrap the unstarted electfification rather than push forward with an aim to completing it. I am not saying this was the wrong decision given the circumstances, but given the failure to come up with any alternative plan, this is very much a knock on consequence of that decision. Just palming it off as nothing to do with Grayling, simply lets him off the hook for yet another of his ministerial failings.

 

[Gareth Marston]

It's nothing to do with Grayling.
If Scotrail and GWR had cascaded all the DMU stock they were supposed to with electrification, there wouldn't be a shortage.
Everything is running a year or more late, thanks to NR's electrification delays (and a few other problems within the industry's control).

Theirs no cascades from ScotRail or GWR earmarked for this scheme anyway and if you read whats been said in the Liverpool Echo and Rail Technology Magazine Transport for Wales are blaming it on non delivery of Class 769's from Porterbrook.

 

[krus_aragon]

Theirs no cascades from ScotRail or GWR earmarked for this scheme anyway and if you read whats been said in the Liverpool Echo and Rail Technology Magazine Transport for Wales are blaming it on non delivery of Class 769's from Porterbrook.

That's the immediate cause, yes. But if planned electrification hadn't been bungled & cut back, would TfW have been dependent on the 769?

 

[Gareth Marston]

That's the immediate cause, yes. But if planned electrification hadn't been bungled & cut back, would TfW have been dependent on the 769?

Its an impossible gig for Kelois or any other of the bidders given timescales and the Welsh Government/ ATW ordered the 769's off the drawing board in the summer of 2017. Unless you have concrete evidence that they were actively exploring something else 12-18 months ago?

 

[The Prisoner]

Going back to how busy the services might be KA are likely to bolt on a "via Runcorn/KA only" Runcorn/Liverpool element to their own range of fares from their network to keep people off Merseyrail @ Chester and keep the revenue in-house, which will add to the numbers.

 

[krus_aragon]

Its an impossible gig for Kelois or any other of the bidders given timescales and the Welsh Government/ ATW ordered the 769's off the drawing board in the summer of 2017. Unless you have concrete evidence that they were actively exploring something else 12-18 months ago?

I have no evidence whatsoever that they were considering anything else at that point. But if, as LNW-GW Joint suggested, continued electrification had released more old DMUs, then they might have been available for consideration at the time.

(Aside from that, if Electrification in South Wales had kept to its original timetable and scope, they could be snapping up unwanted EMUs for short term use.)

But as you say, the plan kick-started in 2017 left little wiggle room in the timescales.

 

[frodshamfella]

As the service is delayed.....can we look foward to direct Wales services for May instead now ?

 

[Gareth Marston]

Going back to how busy the services might be KA are likely to bolt on a "via Runcorn/KA only" Runcorn/Liverpool element to their own range of fares from their network to keep people off Merseyrail @ Chester and keep the revenue in-house, which will add to the numbers.

Current Fares Chester to Liverpool are

via Birkenhead SDS £7.30
via Birkenhead SDR £7.60
Via Warrington SDS £11.00
Via Warrington CDR 11.10
Via Warrington SDR £12.20
Any Permitted SDR £12.20

I can see the via Warrington's being dropped and replaced with via Runcorn as theirs probably no income stream on the via Warringtons, Keolis do have a relatively blank page to start with.

 

[krus_aragon]

As the service is delayed.....can we look foward to direct Wales services for May instead now ?

Apart from the token two services to/from Wrexham that were announced as a sweetener, no.

A five month delay isn't enough for all the extra stock that would be required, and it will probably require a full timetable recast to avoid conflicts with existing services. Better to wait for all the new Civitys to be built.

 

[Bertie the bus]

That's the immediate cause, yes. But if planned electrification hadn't been bungled & cut back, would TfW have been dependent on the 769?

Of course they would. Preston - Manchester hasn't even been finished yet so do you really think Windermere or any other scheme would have been completed releasing stock?

As always, the fault lies completely with the railway but certain people try to deflect blame elsewhere.

 

[krus_aragon]

Of course they would. Preston - Manchester hasn't even been finished yet so do you really think Windermere or any other scheme would have been completed releasing stock?

As always, the fault lies completely with the railway but certain people try to deflect blame elsewhere.

With my reference to "bungling", I was thinking more of the failure of the High Output Plant System (the rolling electrification factory) to electrify plain line as quickly and cheaply as promised. This failing may be more apparent in the south: electrification to Cardiff and Bristol was originally to be completed in 2017, with wires then continuing up the Valleys and along to Swansea. I'm not as familiar with original timescales for the northern electrification project, but I'm under the impression that there have been similar delays.

If the electrification projects had worked as well as hoped by NR, then there may not have been as much demand for DMUs, as well as the ability of W&B to use cascaded EMUs on newly electrified track. But they didn't, so alternative plans had to be formed. I think the original timescale for electrification could have seen all the pacers and many 150s displaced by EMUs before 2020, which would have made the job of fleet PRM modifications quite straightforward. But as we know, things didn't work as well as hoped for, and alternative ideas were needed.

I accept that these alternatives should have been sought earlier, but they weren't, and due to delays to the stopgap solution selected (769) we're in the position we are today. I don't mean to say "it's not Cardiff Bay's fault, NR are to blame" , but I am trying to illustrate what may have been the original plan circa 2012-2015, which then couldn't be realised.

 

[Gareth Marston]

It's perhaps no suprise given Welsh Governments form on these things.

Cambrian -
2009 announced the funding of passing loops to allow hourly service.
2011 the date a daytime hourly service was promised by.
2015 before any extra trains actually ran
2022 latest date promised for full hourly service.

Wrexham Redouble.
2013 project announced.
2015 was initial completion date.
2018 work done but still no regular extra scheduled services
2022 date promised for 2 tph.

 

[krus_aragon]

There are several factors involved in the two examples you give, but yes: there is a record of delays.

 

[Gareth Marston]

There are several factors involved in the two examples you give, but yes: there is a record of delays.

Capital and Revenue spending not going hand in hand? Ignore the infrastructure delays....

 

[6Gman]

I wonder why Patricroft and not Eccles - surely a better option.

Pick up/ drop off Patricroft traincrew working to/from Llandudno?

Oops! 50 years too late ...

 

[absolutelymilk]

via Birkenhead SDS £7.30
via Birkenhead SDR £7.60
Via Warrington SDS £11.00
Via Warrington CDR 11.10
Via Warrington SDR £12.20
Any Permitted SDR £12.20

What do SDS and SDR mean?

 

[6Gman]

I'm still shocked that its going to be an age before you can get from Liverpool to North Wales directly still, ridiculous situation.

But is this Liverpool - N Wales service additional or in place of an existing service along the coast?

 

[craigybagel]

What do SDS and SDR mean?

Anytime Day Single and Anytime Day Return. When the names of the different ticket types were simplified a few years ago the 3 letter codes used to denote them were never changed. The S stands for Standard.

 

[Gareth Marston]

But is this Liverpool - N Wales service additional or in place of an existing service along the coast?

No additional Liverpool to N Wales services until 2022 apart from an early morning starter and evening terminator from/to Wrexham General.
It will be a Chester to Liverpool service for 90% of day.

When the 'big bang' happens in 2022 when the new Civitys are all delivered there will be 3 tph west of Chester along the coast one of which will be a service from Liverpool to Llandudno* which will join/split at Chester with a service from Shrewsbury/Cardiff*.

* though stopping patterns are not confirmed I'm expecting these services to be all stations due to the requirement to speed up Bangor to Manchester, Holyhead to Cardiff and Manchester to Cardiff trains that has been specified.

 

[Gareth Marston]

There are several factors involved in the two examples you give, but yes: there is a record of delays.

Ive forgot the Gowerton redouble which was not delayed but never included any additional services specified. As things stand Welsh Government has spent close on 100 million on rail infrastructure and only got 4 extras train a day on the Cambrian Mainline to show for it.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Ive forgot the Gowerton redouble which was not delayed but never included any additional services specified. As things stand Welsh Government has spent close on 100 million on rail infrastructure and only got 4 extras train a day on the Cambrian Mainline to show for it.

Plus North-South "journey time improvements" which don't seem to have materialised yet.
And of course the NR/ATW cost of the ERTMS pilot which was met outside TfW.
Vast spend for not much return.
There's a piece in October Modern Railways quoting the incoming boss of what we now have to call TfW Rail Services, saying that the ERTMS product was "only a trial" and they would need a new system for the CAF DMUs.
So that's more spend before new trains can run on the Cambrian.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Plus North-South "journey time improvements" which don't seem to have materialised yet.
And of course the NR/ATW cost of the ERTMS pilot which was met outside TfW.
Vast spend for not much return.
There's a piece in October Modern Railways quoting the incoming boss of what we now have to call TfW Rail Services, saying that the ERTMS product was "only a trial" and they would need a new system for the CAF DMUs.
So that's more spend before new trains can run on the Cambrian.

The cost of replacing a bespoke non standard bit of signalling kit (ERTMS pilot) - funny enough that's a chicken that's come home to roost which I wrote a piece in our RUG Newsletter about a decade ago and flagged with Welsh Government (who as usual didn't even acknowledge the issue).