Reliance on this Covid-19 vaccine

[cuccir]

A freiend of mine is participating in one of the first wave of trials, the one being run by Imperial. He had an injection on Sunday of either the trial vaccine, or control vaccine (one which protects against certain strains of meningitis). Interestingly, a third group of poeple is getting a double dose of the vaccine. They have regular check-ups in hospital for 6 months, with an optional one after a year.

So to me that looks like 6 months for the main study; if the vaccine is effective I guess they'll get to production as soon as they can after that with a view to releasing to broader population after those 12 month check ups. Add in time to ramp up produciton and for health authorities to accredit the vaccine, and you get to the 18 months from the initial outbreak that was being cited back in Februrary as the fastest possilbe timeline.

Based on that (very limited) insight I can see how a vaccine by next summer is achievable, but it requires nothing to go wrong at any stage in that process.

 

[cuccir]

Indeed, I understand the Oxford virus has been created by putting the same spikes on another harmless coronavirus.

This exactly (I've seen my friend's participant information sheet!). They have taken the chimpanzee version of the common cold, and modified it further to make it impossible to grow in humans. Then they've added the spike proteins from covid-19.

 

[Meerkat]

if the vaccine is effective I guess they'll get to production as soon as they can after that

Oxford were talking about producing one million doses by September - ie having stocks ready before approval. A million doses would cover a lot of essential/key workers, even more if they have an antibody test by then and skip those who get a positive (at least skip them on first round).

 

[matt]

Some interesting articles posted by the New York Times and Bloomberg on progress on the vaccine.

In Race for a Coronavirus Vaccine, an Oxford Group Leaps Ahead (Published 2020)

As scientists at the Jenner Institute prepare for mass clinical trials, new tests show their vaccine to be effective in monkeys.

www.nytimes.com

In the worldwide race for a vaccine to stop the coronavirus, the laboratory sprinting fastest is at Oxford University.
Most other teams have had to start with small clinical trials of a few hundred participants to demonstrate safety. But scientists at the university’s Jenner Institute had a head start on a vaccine, having proved in previous trials that similar inoculations — including one last year against an earlier coronavirus — were harmless to humans.
That has enabled them to leap ahead and schedule tests of their new coronavirus vaccine involving more than 6,000 people by the end of next month, hoping to show not only that it is safe, but also that it works.

Vaccine Could Potentially Be Available Later This Year, Coalition Says

A vaccine to halt the coronavirus pandemic could be available as early as this year for vulnerable groups such as health-care workers, even faster than initially thought, according to a key group at the heart of the global development effort.

www.bloomberg.com

A vaccine to halt the coronavirus pandemic could be available as early as this year for vulnerable groups such as health-care workers, even faster than initially thought, according to a key group at the heart of the global development effort.



The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, which is funding nine different coronavirus vaccine projects, has previously suggested a shot could be ready within 12 to 18 months, an already ambitious target. That assessment didn’t account for the possibility of companies working closely together to accelerate the process, faster enrollment in human trials and other factors, according to Richard Hatchett, the head of the Oslo-based organization.

Obviously still early days but something to be hopeful for.

 

[cuccir]

Oxford were talking about producing one million doses by September - ie having stocks ready before approval. A million doses would cover a lot of essential/key workers, even more if they have an antibody test by then and skip those who get a positive (at least skip them on first round).

That makes sense. On the timeline my friend had been given the trials will finish during October, so that potentially a rapid approval could get some out after that if the doses were available.

 

[PartyOperator]

We already have a couple of different kinds of vaccine that work for ferrets and monkeys. Great news if you’re a macaque and promising for people. If human challenge trials were allowed, we could have answered the question of efficacy in humans already. I’m sure people would volunteer.

 

[Bletchleyite]

We already have a couple of different kinds of vaccine that work for ferrets and monkeys. Great news if you’re a macaque and promising for people. If human challenge trials were allowed, we could have answered the question of efficacy in humans already. I’m sure people would volunteer.

Whether I'd be any use is questionable (partly because I think I've had it and partly because I am technically in the middle risk group due to mild asthma) but I would volunteer for a "human challenge", i.e. to be given it and be deliberately infected.

I'd have to think more about whether I'd volunteer if that was a double-blind challenge, i.e. I would be deliberately infected but may not have been vaccinated. I still might.

 

[6862]

I'd have to think more about whether I'd volunteer if that was a double-blind challenge, i.e. I would be deliberately infected but may not have been vaccinated. I still might.

I think to be a valid trial it would have to be double blind, but that would raise some pretty significant ethical challenges. I think I would probably volunteer for such a trial.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I think to be a valid trial it would have to be double blind, but that would raise some pretty significant ethical challenges. I think I would probably volunteer for such a trial.

If I have had it, a trial of that nature on whether reinfection is possible could be worth looking at.

 

[6862]

If I have had it, a trial of that nature on whether reinfection is possible could be worth looking at.

Yes - and this would likely have to be done with the vaccine trial anyway because they have to check that immunity is due to the vaccine and not prior infection.

 

[cactustwirly]

If I have had it, a trial of that nature on whether reinfection is possible could be worth looking at.

As part of the trials, the researchers will look at the immune response, ie how strong it is. If the immune response is strong enough, memory cells will be produced, which should prevent reinfection.

 

[edwin_m]

I think a challenge trial would have to isolate all the subjects for a period, as even if they'd agreed to be infected the risk to others of catching infection from them would be unacceptable.

 

[AlistairCowell]

Italy claims to have developed the first vaccine in the world - to neutralise COVID-19:

Italy boasts finding 'world's first coronavirus vaccine'

ITALY has boasted finding a coronavirus vaccine that is the "first in the world" to neutralise the killer disease - despite UK scientists already being weeks ahead.

www.express.co.uk

At least we have hope that one day we will have a Covid-19 vaccine to end this pandemic.
Meanwhile, Oxford University are undergoing human trials and we should find out by summer if this is successful.

 

[6862]

It's good to see lots of different organisations taking on this challenge. I think the Oxford vaccine is at a significantly more advanced stage (they have already shown it to be effective in Rhesus monkeys, arguably a better model for effectiveness in humans), but it could still fail. Hopefully, a vaccine will be found, even if it is by 'brute force' - i.e. massive numbers of failures and one or two successes.

 

[yorksrob]

The more eggs in the more baskets, the better. Excellent news.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The more eggs in the more baskets, the better. Excellent news.

Agreed. It'd be nice if the UK got it, but the main object is getting one (or ideally more than one, to stop politics and profiteering getting in the way) as soon as possible so we can stop all this nonsense and get genuinely back to normal.

 

[yorksrob]

Agreed. It'd be nice if the UK got it, but the main object is getting one (or ideally more than one, to stop politics and profiteering getting in the way) as soon as possible so we can stop all this nonsense and get genuinely back to normal.

Amen to that.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Agreed. It'd be nice if the UK got it, but the main object is getting one (or ideally more than one, to stop politics and profiteering getting in the way) as soon as possible so we can stop all this nonsense and get genuinely back to normal.

Amen to that.

And a BIG AMEN from me too.

 

[scotrail158713]

And a BIG AMEN from me too.

And me. Even if this one is ultimately unsuccessful hopefully a lot is learnt, which will be beneficial in the long term.

 

[bramling]

Agreed. It'd be nice if the UK got it, but the main object is getting one (or ideally more than one, to stop politics and profiteering getting in the way) as soon as possible so we can stop all this nonsense and get genuinely back to normal.

I’d be a little more optimistic if this story was emanating from anywhere other than the Daily Express!

 

[GRALISTAIR]

I’d be a little more optimistic if this story was emanating from anywhere other than the Daily Express!

I am out of touch with UK newspapers. Still love my all time favourite Yes Prime Minister Who reads the newspapers sketch. Who are the trustworthy newspapers or is even that subjective and political?

 

[edwin_m]

I am out of touch with UK newspapers. Still love my all time favourite Yes Prime Minister Who reads the newspapers sketch. Who are the trustworthy newspapers or is even that subjective and political?

Definitely subjective and political but the Express would be near the bottom of my list along with the Sun and the Mail.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Definitely subjective and political but the Express would be near the bottom of my list along with the Sun and the Mail.

The Times and The Guardian are I assume not too bad.

oh and BTW enjoy

 

[HH]

The Star is right at the bottom, but doesn't really bother with politics (unless it's a scandal).

 

[SouthEastBuses]

Yay! Finally a vaccine seems to have been developed! If everything goes well, this means we can already be back to normal by July-August (that is provided of course that this Italian vaccine reaches the UK and the rest of Europe).

 

[Domh245]

Yay! Finally a vaccine seems to have been developed! If everything goes well, this means we can already be back to normal by July-August (that is provided of course that this Italian vaccine reaches the UK and the rest of Europe).

?? July-August next year at a push. Oxford are (as discussed already in this thread) ahead by several weeks. Assuming trials go well and it it declared safe for use, it'll take a while for it to be produced and rolled out to enough people for life to return to normal. We'll be looking at 12 months as an absolute best case scenario for it to be approved

 

[6862]

Yay! Finally a vaccine seems to have been developed! If everything goes well, this means we can already be back to normal by July-August (that is provided of course that this Italian vaccine reaches the UK and the rest of Europe).

Unfortunately I think it will be rather later than July / August before this (or any) vaccine starts to be administered, and even longer before there is any effect on our lives. This one isn't even in clinical trials - and even once a vaccine reaches trials it could still fail. Sorry to put a downer on your optimism.

 

[Spamcan81]

Yay! Finally a vaccine seems to have been developed! If everything goes well, this means we can already be back to normal by July-August (that is provided of course that this Italian vaccine reaches the UK and the rest of Europe).

You need to read the article in full. The Italians have said that human trials won't start until after the summer. If they're successful them there's the small matter of manufacturing millions upon millions of doses and then vaccinating millions and millions of people.

 

[SouthEastBuses]

?? July-August next year at a push. Oxford are (as discussed already in this thread) ahead by several weeks. Assuming trials go well and it it declared safe for use, it'll take a while for it to be produced and rolled out to enough people for life to return to normal. We'll be looking at 12 months as an absolute best case scenario for it to be approved

Lol, even scientists have different opinions and predictions. Some of them say by 12-18 months as you rightly said, others said in a couple of months.

Unfortunately I think it will be rather later than July / August before this (or any) vaccine starts to be administered, and even longer before there is any effect on our lives. This one isn't even in clinical trials - and even once a vaccine reaches trials it could still fail. Sorry to put a downer on your optimism.

True point. I've always felt that a vaccine, if approved, would be ready by the end of September, and that the first time I'd be able to travel abroad once again (before the pandemic started) was for Christmas 2020. I was thinking that there was a very low chance for me to be able to go abroad on holiday this Summer, because of how long vaccines can take to be developed.

 

[SouthEastBuses]

You need to read the article in full. The Italians have said that human trials won't start until after the summer. If they're successful them there's the small matter of manufacturing millions upon millions of doses and then vaccinating millions and millions of people.

Oops, I thought it said that the vaccine was ready for use! Sorry! But either way, good news, because we can be back to normal sooner than we think we would.