Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party.

[ainsworth74]

Well I'm having breakfast and then off to vote in mid Beds. Labour and another party actually knocked and spoke to me ( others may have tried when no one home) . Just this morning a letter from Lib Dems came through the door. I'm sure she's pretty local and the envelope is actually hand written in biro with my name on it. I'm pretty impressed but not sure the lib Dems can win here . I absolutely have to vote but still struggling between lib and labour. Pfft

You certainly wouldn't be the first voter to only make their mind up when the pencil was hovering over the ballot paper in the voting booth!

 

[Bantamzen]

Just checking the Poll of Polls, its noticeable that since the fall of Truss the Tories have gone from 30 points down to 17 down in a slow but steady recovery over 12 months. Not enough yet to turn things around, but maybe enough to give them a glimmer of hope for a GE in 12 months, especially if they start to reel some of the Reform party voters back (which I suspect was the plan at their conference). All the other parties are pretty much flatlining over the same period, so aren't likely to play much of a part unless the spectre of a hung Parliament looms into view. The link to the graph is below (note you'll need to switch to a 2 year view to see the full impact Truss had on them), but please note their are no quotes here as this is an interactive graph.

POLITICO Poll of Polls — British polls, trends and election news for the United Kingdom and Scotland

All polls, trends and election news for the the United Kingdom, Scotland and London — Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dems, Brexit Party, SNP, Greens, Scottish independence referendum and Scotland elect…

www.politico.eu

 

[takno]

Just checking the Poll of Polls, its noticeable that since the fall of Truss the Tories have gone from 30 points down to 17 down in a slow but steady recovery over 12 months. Not enough yet to turn things around, but maybe enough to give them a glimmer of hope for a GE in 12 months, especially if they start to reel some of the Reform party voters back (which I suspect was the plan at their conference). All the other parties are pretty much flatlining over the same period, so aren't likely to play much of a part unless the spectre of a hung Parliament looms into view. The link to the graph is below (note you'll need to switch to a 2 year view to see the full impact Truss had on them), but please note their are no quotes here as this is an interactive graph.

POLITICO Poll of Polls — British polls, trends and election news for the United Kingdom and Scotland

All polls, trends and election news for the the United Kingdom, Scotland and London — Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dems, Brexit Party, SNP, Greens, Scottish independence referendum and Scotland elect…

www.politico.eu

Will be interesting to see where the green vote ends up. I understand that they aren't exactly going to field a full deck of candidates, and will only actually target 4 seats in E&W. That could easily end up being as much of a gain to the opposition as gathering up all of the Reform voters would be to the Conservatives.

I think it's unlikely that the Conservatives will get any real bounce from Reform voters anyway, since many Reform voters aren't natural Conservatives, and in many cases they are voting for alternative parties out of disgust with the status quo. I can see people refusing to vote for Labour because they regard them as (or have been told they are part of) the status quo, but it's a bit of a stretch to vote for the party in government out of disgust with the status quo.

I'd probably also contest the idea that there's been a slow but steady recovery. They actually "recovered" quite quickly to their current awful position, and both they and Labour have been floating around basically the same numbers, moving by barely more than the margin of error for the entire period since. That's not quite what the graph looks like from eyeballing it, but it's definitely what the numbers say.

 

[edwin_m]

Will be interesting to see where the green vote ends up. I understand that they aren't exactly going to field a full deck of candidates, and will only actually target 4 seats in E&W. That could easily end up being as much of a gain to the opposition as gathering up all of the Reform voters would be to the Conservatives.

I think it's unlikely that the Conservatives will get any real bounce from Reform voters anyway, since many Reform voters aren't natural Conservatives, and in many cases they are voting for alternative parties out of disgust with the status quo. I can see people refusing to vote for Labour because they regard them as (or have been told they are part of) the status quo, but it's a bit of a stretch to vote for the party in government out of disgust with the status quo.

I'd probably also contest the idea that there's been a slow but steady recovery. They actually "recovered" quite quickly to their current awful position, and both they and Labour have been floating around basically the same numbers, moving by barely more than the margin of error for the entire period since. That's not quite what the graph looks like from eyeballing it, but it's definitely what the numbers say.

Not so sure about Reform - Boris doing a deal for Farage to pull his candidates was probably a big contribution to the 2019 result. I do agree the Tory recovery seems to have peaked about May and has if anything gone backwards since then. The gap does seem to have narrowed again in the last month but there was at least one outlier giving the Tories a 5% boost, apparently by counting "don't knows" according to how they voted in 2019 instead of leaving them out of the figures as is usual. I'd guess there are plenty of former Tories in the don't know category at present.

 

[takno]

Not so sure about Reform - Boris doing a deal for Farage to pull his candidates was probably a big contribution to the 2019 result. I do agree the Tory recovery seems to have peaked about May and has if anything gone backwards since then. The gap does seem to have narrowed again in the last month but there was at least one outlier giving the Tories a 5% boost, apparently by counting "don't knows" according to how they voted in 2019 instead of leaving them out of the figures as is usual. I'd guess there are plenty of former Tories in the don't know category at present.

YouGov have done a lot of work based on counting don't-knows as whatever they voted before. It's been depressingly accurate as a rule. On the other hand the lead is still huge, and the only reason we are worried about it not being large enough is that we know the polls and the system often structurally benefit the Tories. If you correct that structural innaccuracy and the Tories are still significantly behind then you're in a pretty good place. The difference between Reform then and now is that Boris successfully presented himself as a change candidate in a way that Rishi just can't, and Reform had a lot more votes to disburse.

 

[brad465]

I think the Tories are going to win Mid-Beds simply because there's no one obvious party for the anti-Tory vote to coalesce around so I'm fairly certain that the Tories will come through with say 35% and the Lib Dems and Labour will get around 30% each. So a wholly dissatisfactory result but that's the nature of the FPTP beast that we're lumbered with. I think Tamworth is probably more likely to fall by virtue of Labour seeming to be the only party in town but it's a stonking majority to overturn (on the order of the Selby majority that they did) so would still take something special.

I suspect in some respects what might be more instructive is the swing against the Tories. Lets say that the Tories narrow hold both seats. On it's face that's a good result for them and a fairly bad one for the Labour and the Lib Dems. But if there's a 15% swing against the Tories in both those constituencies that paints a fairly apocalyptic picture as there's a lot of seats that are currently Tory where the swing required for them to be flipped by other party is nowhere near 15%.

A narrow Tory win in this fashion might be what Labour and the Lib Dems need, that may sound odd but if it highlights the pitfalls of FPTP then such a split result with re-ignite tactical voting demands with the GE close by.

 

[bspahh]

A narrow Tory win in this fashion might be what Labour and the Lib Dems need, that may sound odd but if it highlights the pitfalls of FPTP then such a split result with re-ignite tactical voting demands with the GE close by.

The recent opinion polls in Mid-Bedfordshire suggested that Labour would be in second place. If you wanted to vote "not Conservative" for this by-election, then it would be best to vote Labour.

 

[Busaholic]

I absolutely have to vote but still struggling between lib and labour. Pfft

Just go with your gut, it's so important you do vote. I sincerely hope that nobody seeking to cast their vote is caught in the identity scam brought in by tonlyhe Tories in their attempted gerrymandering of the voting system: alternatively, only would-be Conservative voters are prevented from doing so.

A narrow Tory win in this fashion might be what Labour and the Lib Dems need, that may sound odd but if it highlights the pitfalls of FPTP then such a split result with re-ignite tactical voting demands with the GE close by.

Might also concentrate Starmer's mind on ensuring some sort of deal/agreement between the two parties, if only on local levels, prior to the General Election, which is not far away now.

 

[ainsworth74]

Might also concentrate Starmer's mind on ensuring some sort of deal/agreement between the two parties, if only on local levels, prior to the General Election, which is not far away now.

I was reading or listening to something recently (can't recall exactly where now sorry!) that suggested that this might not be such a problem on a General Election as the number of seats where a three-way split is a risk are comparatively quite low. On a national (or GB level anyway) the majority of Labour targets and Lib Dem targets don't overlap all that much. Not enough to make a difference to the final outcome of a General Election (presuming the polling is at least vaguely accurate).

 

[renegademaster]

S

I'm not really convinced that's true on any counts. As awful as the lockdown restrictions were, it's extremely unlikely that either party will be faced with similar issues in the next 5 years, and even more unlikely that UK governments or the wider international community would be would accept lockdowns even if we did. People definitely vote on more than one issue, and it's unlikely that lockdowns will be foremost in peoples minds. Even if people are looking back to 2020, the Tories were squarely responsible for more long-term damage to lives and the economy from hard Brexit in the same period, and that's ongoing in a more apparent way.

In terms of how Starmer would have reacted if he'd actually been in government, I don't think the Tories actually did anything more more positive in that respect - we actually pretty long lockdowns compared to some other countries. It was Sunak who introduced and failed to time-limit the overly-generous furlough scheme, and hard-man Hancock who decided that his best bet was to ignore all the evidence of lockdown harms rather than make a balanced decision.

I'm angry about the whole situation, and angry that it was only really extreme right-wing parties across Europe who found themselves able to take a sane approach to the situation. However, in terms of mainstream parties who are likely to win elections anywhere in Europe, I'm not sure you could get a fag paper between the Covid approaches of virtually any of them.

Sweden's government was a pretty unremarkable center left gov

 

[takno]

Sweden's government was a pretty unremarkable center left gov

Yes, Sweden's government was an outlier, although unfortunately they now they have a some unpleasant right-wingers circling around the government, so overall it didn't save them from that.

 

[Lost property]

Yes, Sweden's government was an outlier, although unfortunately they now they have a some unpleasant right-wingers circling around the government, so overall it didn't save them from that.

So does the UK albeit they've long been embedded in the current Gov't as well.

 

[renegademaster]

Yes, Sweden's government was an outlier, although unfortunately they now they have a some unpleasant right-wingers circling around the government, so overall it didn't save them from that.

Having some foreign online right wingers who haven't paid attention to what their other policies isn't the parties concern or implicates them in any way

 

[takno]

Having some foreign online right wingers who haven't paid attention to what their other policies isn't the parties concern or implicates them in any way

To be clear I think the Swedish government's reaction in 2020 was pretty good. Unfortunately the PM got caught up in a corruption scandal and got replaced by somebody who tried to jump on the vaccine passport bandwagon. Now they have a messy right wing coalition which depends on the votes of some rather extreme elements to govern.

 

[edwin_m]

A narrow Tory win in this fashion might be what Labour and the Lib Dems need, that may sound odd but if it highlights the pitfalls of FPTP then such a split result with re-ignite tactical voting demands with the GE close by.

Some truth in that, but I it has to be set against the danger that it would reinforce the current Tory belief that the way to win is to push culture wars, take an exclusively short-term view and trash the economy. I wouldn't mind too much them taking that line at a GE, because I think they'd lose, but we still have a year or more of them doing whatever they like before that happens.

 

[Busaholic]

Any predictions for the by-elections? I expect Tamworth to go to Labour with a 4 or 5,000 majority, but no idea on Mid Beds what may happen, except whover wins will only be by 1 to 2,000.

 

[Western Sunset]

Labour win Tamworth. [As per BBC by-election results programe]

 

[brad465]

Labour gain Tamworth:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-67126173

Tamworth by-election results​

Here are the results in full:
Labour: 11,719
Conservatives: 10,403
Reform UK: 1,373
Britain First: 580
The UK Independence Party: 436
Liberal Democrats: 417
Green Party: 417
Monster Raving Loony Party: 155
Independent: 86

 

[Western Sunset]

Mid Beds result coming up... Then I can go to bed.

Labour win Mid Beds. [As per BBC by-election results programme]

 

[baz962]

I'm a happy man

 

[Western Sunset]

Delighted.

 

[brad465]

20th October 2022 - Truss resigns and is shortest PM in UK history.
20th October 2023 - We learn 2 Tory seats flipped to Labour

If I were the Tories, don't hold the General Election on 20th October 2024.

 

[WatcherZero]

Tamworth Conservative majority of nearly 20,000 turned into a 1,300 Labour majority, swing of 23.9% (0.2% higher swing than the by-election in July)
Mid Befordshire Conservative Majority of 24,600 turned into a 1,200 Labour majority, swing of around 20.5% with my rough maths

Mid Bed was interesting as the vote was split three ways with Lib Dems not far behind with 23.1% up 10.5%, by contrast in Tamworth it was a two horse race with Labour on 45.8%, Conservatives on 40.7% and 3rd place was Reform with 5.4% (Lib Dems got sixth place with 1.6%, -3.6%).

 

[Blindtraveler]

All the poor diluted voters that think labour are going to do great things that the conservatives are failing on, I've got news for them, current labor is nothing more than Tori light with awful lot of gaps in actual policy or ideas

 

[NeilCr]

All the poor diluted voters that think labour are going to do great things that the conservatives are failing on, I've got news for them, current labor is nothing more than Tori light with awful lot of gaps in actual policy or ideas

I don’t particularly think most voters believe that Labour are going to do “great things”

It’s much more that - at the moment anyway (and a week is a long time in politics let alone a year) - people are thoroughly disillusioned with the current government and their antics

Instead of pointing fingers at others the Tories and their supporters need to take a long hard look at themselves

 

[Gloster]

I must admit to being surprised, but pleased, that both have been lost by the Tories, and both by reasonably clear margins. It really is a case of ’Tories less popular than chlamydia’ and, in any normal era, would see them calling an election because they knew that continuing to hang on would cause long-term damage to the party’s remaining shreds of credibility. But I can’t see them doing that as the current lot are only in it for their personal short-term interests. Go on, prove me wrong…

A further thought: it’s the abstentions what won it.

 

[Pete_uk]

Nice news to wake up to!

 

[JonathanH]

If I were the Tories, don't hold the General Election on 20th October 2024

No danger of that, as 20 October 2024 isn't a Thursday.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I think the Tories are going to win Mid-Beds simply because there's no one obvious party for the anti-Tory vote to coalesce around so I'm fairly certain that the Tories will come through with say 35% and the Lib Dems and Labour will get around 30% each. So a wholly dissatisfactory result but that's the nature of the FPTP beast that we're lumbered with. I think Tamworth is probably more likely to fall by virtue of Labour seeming to be the only party in town but it's a stonking majority to overturn (on the order of the Selby majority that they did) so would still take something special.

Looks to me like the opposite happened: Not only did Labour take Mid Beds despite the split in the anti-Tory vote, but in Tamworth the main split was in the right-wing vote, and it's just possible that might have cost the Tories the seat (if you assume plausibly that the minor party right-wing/extremist vote would have broken more for the Tories than for Labour): In Tamworth, the Tories lost with 40.7% of the vote, but Reform UK + Britain First + UKIP between them took 9.4%, which adds up to just over 50%

I suspect in some respects what might be more instructive is the swing against the Tories. Lets say that the Tories narrow hold both seats. On it's face that's a good result for them and a fairly bad one for the Labour and the Lib Dems. But if there's a 15% swing against the Tories in both those constituencies that paints a fairly apocalyptic picture as there's a lot of seats that are currently Tory where the swing required for them to be flipped by other party is nowhere near 15%.

Actual Tory-to-Labour swing was above 20% in both constituencies - which comfortably meets your definition of 'apocalyptic'. There can't be many Tory-held seats that would survive a swing of that magnitude (although I'm sure the swing will be lower in the general election)

 

[Noddy]

All the poor diluted voters that think labour are going to do great things that the conservatives are failing on, I've got news for them, current labor is nothing more than Tori light with awful lot of gaps in actual policy or ideas

Have you somehow missed the last 8 years? It has been a self inflicted **** show from the conservatives, with policy being dominated from the right of the party rather than the sensible middle, five PMs, constant infighting, constant changes of policy, the DUP, and taking rest of the country down with them in a shower of flames. What we need is a bit of boring stability, and Starmer is exactly that.