Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party.

[jfollows]

Indeed, there's no delusion other than with politics and politicians in general, an increasing majority of people want anything but the Conservatives and aren't voting on the basis of a delusional fantasy that Labour will solve all their problems and do everything right.
It's going to be 1997 all over again, nobody other than the diehard always-vote-Conservative voters are going to vote Conservative at the next election.
Labour will introduce bad policies of its own, it will succumb to its tendency towards paternalism and restricting liberties on the basis that the government knows best, but in fact the Conservatives have already headed down that road themselves, it's just that it takes ten years in power before Conservatives usually go this way whereas it's in the Labour DNA. So it won't be wonderful after they've won, but it'll still be a lot better than the Conservatives.

EDIT Of course these by-elections came with the in-built warning that if you vote Conservative you get people like Pincher and Dorries, and that was probably enough to clinch it for now.

 

[deltic]

Looks to me like the opposite happened: Not only did Labour take Mid Beds despite the split in the anti-Tory vote, but in Tamworth the main split was in the right-wing vote, and it's just possible that might have cost the Tories the seat (if you assume plausibly that the minor party right-wing/extremist vote would have broken more for the Tories than for Labour): In Tamworth, the Tories lost with 40.7% of the vote, but Reform UK + Britain First + UKIP between them took 9.4%, which adds up to just over 50%



Actual Tory-to-Labour swing was above 20% in both constituencies - which comfortably meets your definition of 'apocalyptic'. There can't be many Tory-held seats that would survive a swing of that magnitude (although I'm sure the swing will be lower in the general election)

Some would argue that Labour took mid-Beds thanks to the Lib Dem vote. Tories who would never have voted Labour switched to the Lib Dems thereby reducing the Tory vote enough for Labour to win.

I agree with you about Reform. I was always sceptical about their opinion poll rating as my view was no one knows who they are but they do seem to be able to capture around 5% of the vote which maybe enough to undermine some Tory majorities.

The good point from last night is that the Government pro-car policies don't seem to have done it any favours.

 

[birchesgreen]

I think Sunak is still hoping Steiner can make his counter attack.

 

[edwin_m]

Looks to me like the opposite happened: Not only did Labour take Mid Beds despite the split in the anti-Tory vote, but in Tamworth the main split was in the right-wing vote, and it's just possible that might have cost the Tories the seat (if you assume plausibly that the minor party right-wing/extremist vote would have broken more for the Tories than for Labour): In Tamworth, the Tories lost with 40.7% of the vote, but Reform UK + Britain First + UKIP between them took 9.4%, which adds up to just over 50%

That's true on the raw numbers but illustrates the bind the Tories are in. If they pander further to the far right in an attempt to take votes from them, they lose more to the centre, and probably vice versa too.

 

[ainsworth74]

Looks to me like the opposite happened: Not only did Labour take Mid Beds despite the split in the anti-Tory vote, but in Tamworth the main split was in the right-wing vote, and it's just possible that might have cost the Tories the seat (if you assume plausibly that the minor party right-wing/extremist vote would have broken more for the Tories than for Labour): In Tamworth, the Tories lost with 40.7% of the vote, but Reform UK + Britain First + UKIP between them took 9.4%, which adds up to just over 50%

Yes interesting isnt it? Obviously voter behaviour (as well as eventually the parties themselves changing) under some variety of a more proportial system would change so it's hard to use results under FPTP to determine what might happen. But you have to figure if it was something like Single Transferable Vote that enough of the second choice of those Reform, Britain First and UKIP voters would be for the Tories to give them the win.

Obviously the result in Tamworth isn't quite as offensive as some as Labour at least got to 45.8% so close to an outright majority but still another seat where there's probably a slim majority that would have preferred different representation and could have gotten it under a fairer electoral system.

Actual Tory-to-Labour swing was above 20% in both constituencies - which comfortably meets your definition of 'apocalyptic'. There can't be many Tory-held seats that would survive a swing of that magnitude (although I'm sure the swing will be lower in the general election)

Oh yes I'm very pleased to have guess low on the possible swing that is terrible news for the Tories.

Obviously turnout was low and in a general election the swing will be lower but getting swings of 20%+ in seats like this is terrible news.

It has not been a good night for Tories fundamentally and unless something changes whenever Rishi finally calls the election it ain't gonna go well.

 

[AlterEgo]

Indeed, there's no delusion other than with politics and politicians in general, an increasing majority of people want anything but the Conservatives and aren't voting on the basis of a delusional fantasy that Labour will solve all their problems and do everything right.
It's going to be 1997 all over again, nobody other than the diehard always-vote-Conservative voters are going to vote Conservative at the next election.
Labour will introduce bad policies of its own, it will succumb to its tendency towards paternalism and restricting liberties on the basis that the government knows best, but in fact the Conservatives have already headed down that road themselves, it's just that it takes ten years in power before Conservatives usually go this way whereas it's in the Labour DNA. So it won't be wonderful after they've won, but it'll still be a lot better than the Conservatives.

Couldn’t agree more. Great post.

 

[Kite159]

Have you somehow missed the last 8 years? It has been a self inflicted **** show from the conservatives, with policy being dominated from the right of the party rather than the sensible middle, five PMs, constant infighting, constant changes of policy, the DUP, and taking rest of the country down with them in a shower of flames. What we need is a bit of boring stability, and Starmer is exactly that.

Until Starmer gets stabbed in the back by Rayner who takes charge.

Like voting between eating poo or drinking some vomit, both are unappealing.

 

[dosxuk]

All the poor diluted voters that think labour are going to do great things that the conservatives are failing on, I've got news for them, current labor is nothing more than Tori light with awful lot of gaps in actual policy or ideas

Unfortunately for the Tories, an awful lot of people are just fed up with them and want them gone. No longer can they rely on the "better-the-devil-you-know" vote - it's turned into the "grass-is-greener-on-the-other-side" vote. Couple that with the departure of Corbyn, who was an easy target for the Tory spin-doctors, compared to Starmer, who the worst they can seem to be able to come up with is "he's a bit like us" or "he's a bit boring" - and they even lose the swing vote who would be afraid of the more left-wing things that were attributed to Corbyn's policies and would vote Tory through gritted teeth.

And frankly, even among what would normally be the Tory faithful - the latest attempts to woo the Reform crowd are enough to turn them to a party being described by their own party as being "Tory-light". It's very much a term that will back fire if the Tories keep using it - it's more likely to get their own supporters to switch than scare people already planning to vote for Labour.

 

[Silver Cobra]

While it doesn't surprise me massively that Labour won the Mid-Beds by-election, what is rather crazy to think is that this particular seat had been a safe-haven for the Conservatives for over 90 years (being held by them since 1931 until yesterday). It shows that they certainly can't take anything for granted right now, and reflects the true mood of the majority of the population towards the Conservatives.

 

[dangie]

…..A further thought: it’s the abstentions what won it.

That may have had much to do with it, but I’m guessing many of the absentees were Tory voters, who while they couldn’t bring themselves to vote Labour, they certainly didn’t want the Conservatives back.

 

[Typhoon]

I think we need to be careful. The only thing the outgoing incumbents did to help the Conservative cause was to stay away. They were both toxic. In other by=elections - where the sitting MP moves on, say, leaving politics altogether because a job opportunity has come up, there will not necessarily.be the same 'anti' vote.

Have you somehow missed the last 8 years? It has been a self inflicted **** show from the conservatives, with policy being dominated from the right of the party rather than the sensible middle, ....

I think we are going to find that the right of the Conservative Party (eg the Conservative Democratic Organisation) will point to the results, particularly that in Tamworth (outlined in #4889), and claim that the policies haven't been 'right' enough. Even in Mid-Beds. the independent was a failed Conservative candidate and Reform didn't do too badly. I can well see the likes of Truss, pretending last autumn never happened, pushing her 'Growth' agenda and some thinking that maybe they were too quick to oust her. My concern is that for the rest of this parliament, in a desperate attempt to turn the electoral tide, Sunak will be pushed back to these policies, we will get more financial turmoil, and thw Conservative equivalent of Liam Byrne will be leaving a note - 'I am afraid there is no money - and the bailiffs are coming round in the morning'.

Labour need to tone down any euphoria. The job isn't done yet.

And frankly, even among what would normally be the Tory faithful - the latest attempts to woo the Reform crowd are enough to turn them to a party being described by their own party as being "Tory-light". It's very much a term that will back fire if the Tories keep using it - it's more likely to get their own supporters to switch than scare people already planning to vote for Labour.

Tice is a bit like Starmer, it is more about what the Conservatives are doing wrong. And, much as though it is part of the Prime Minister's job, jetting off to the Middle East won't have added a single vote. While he is gone the country is essentially rudderless;is the number two Dowden? He makes no impression at all (in that respect, he is probably worse than Coffey, and that was the new low). At least Rayner is known (see #4898), much like Prescott was. Having a deputy who, at least, is recognised takes some of the attention away from the leader. All three main parties are led by (fairly faceless) men in suits, a dash of colour does not go amiss.

That may have had much to do with it, but I’m guessing many of the absentees were Tory voters, who while they couldn’t bring themselves to vote Labour, they certainly didn’t want the Conservatives back.

I don't know the answer to this living in the South East where we were promised rain, rain and more rain (which did not really materialise) but what was the weather like in the midlands? That may have dampened turnout amongst reluctant voters.

 

[Yew]

I think we are going to find that the right of the Conservative Party (eg the Conservative Democratic Organisation) will point to the results, particularly that in Tamworth (outlined in #4889), and claim that the policies haven't been 'right' enough. Even in Mid-Beds. the independent was a failed Conservative candidate and Reform didn't do too badly. I can well see the likes of Truss, pretending last autumn never happened, pushing her 'Growth' agenda and some thinking that maybe they were too quick to oust her. My concern is that for the rest of this parliament, in a desperate attempt to turn the electoral tide, Sunak will be pushed back to these policies, we will get more financial turmoil, and thw Conservative equivalent of Liam Byrne will be leaving a note - 'I am afraid there is no money - and the bailiffs are coming round in the morning'.

Indeed, John Redwood is already letting his hyper fixation with boats show:

"Many people want the government to stop the boats, improve the quality and efficiency of services and cut taxes to get some growth,"

Tice is a bit like Starmer, it is more about what the Conservatives are doing wrong. And, much as though it is part of the Prime Minister's job, jetting off to the Middle East won't have added a single vote. While he is gone the country is essentially rudderless;is the number two Dowden? He makes no impression at all (in that respect, he is probably worse than Coffey, and that was the new low). At least Rayner is known (see #4898), much like Prescott was. Having a deputy who, at least, is recognised takes some of the attention away from the leader. All three main parties are led by (fairly faceless) men in suits, a dash of colour does not go amiss.

I do worry that, Given how much Starmers position has already weakened, we're on track to have a Labour Party that doesn't do anything to upset the gravy train fix the economy, and instead spends it's time thinking of more and more invasive nanny state interventions to inflict on us "for our own good".

 

[jfollows]

I think we are going to find that the right of the Conservative Party (eg the Conservative Democratic Organisation) will point to the results, particularly that in Tamworth (outlined in #4889), and claim that the policies haven't been 'right' enough.

Yes, the right of the party could well turn on Rishi Sunak now and cause him a lot of trouble. The problem is, and they are in the Westminster bubble and don't see it, any in-fighting, possibly letters of no confidence in him which can be submitted from next week I think, just makes their electoral prospects worse because the "middle ground" voters, however you define them, will hate it whereas the raw meat eating Tory voters are going to vote for them anyway.

 

[GS250]

I fully agree theres now an extreme fatigue with the Tories. Even if they replaced the current leader and front bench with 'moderates', they are still going to struggle to become the largest party at best.

I do detect though, similarities between the EU referendum and the present situation. Those same people who wanted out regardless of what would happen next are like some simply wanting the Tories gone. Nothing wrong with wanting change for changes sake but always be wary of the consequences.

I won't be particularly sad to see this current lot gone...but yes if we end up with someone like Rayner in charge it will be armageddon from the press, oligarchy etc etc. Still...will be good to see the wealthy faux lefties maybe given a tax hammering. Starmer, on the other hand is actually a relatively small target.

 

[edwin_m]

Many people want the government to stop the boats

Many Tory voters and even MPs, somewhat hard of hearing, seem to have heard that as "stop the votes"...

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I won't be particularly sad to see this current lot gone...but yes if we end up with someone like Rayner in charge it will be armageddon from the press, oligarchy etc etc. Still...will be good to see the wealthy faux lefties maybe given a tax hammering. Starmer, on the other hand is actually a relatively small target.

Is there actually any plausible chance of Rayner ending up in charge? From what I can see, Starmer's hold on the Labour Party is now extremely strong and there's basically no way he's going to get deposed any time in the next few years.

 

[birchesgreen]

Oh is that the current Tory attack line, vote Starmer get Rayner? Yawn. What next, devil eyes posters?

 

[ainsworth74]

Is there actually any plausible chance of Rayner ending up in charge?

Only in the fevered imaginations of those who are desperate to find anything that might make Labour look bad no matter how silly it makes them look in reality.

 

[Cowley]

Only in the fevered imaginations of those who are desperate to find anything that might make Labour look bad no matter how silly it makes them look in reality.

Exactly. It’s just nonsense and an attempt to get anything they can to stick.

Back on the Tory’s, it’s still going to be a long time before the public get a chance to decide. I can’t see what’s ever going to improve things for them and the longer Sunak drags his heels on calling an election the more resentment will keep building up.

 

[Typhoon]

Is there actually any plausible chance of Rayner ending up in charge? From what I can see, Starmer's hold on the Labour Party is now extremely strong and there's basically no way he's going to get deposed any time in the next few years.

I would say 'no'. If there was an unexpected vacancy, then I would reckon Yvette Cooper might have a good chance. At least people would recognise the face even if they couldn't put a name to it. Each time a Labour MP seems to be making an impact, it just turns into a false dawn and they decline into being the Shadow Minister for Administrative Affairs Starmer is everywhere; round this neck of the woods, he was in the news for congratulating the Medway Council leader (now, there is someone with a personality) for getting third party finance for their Christmas lights. Unfortunately for him, Milliband stepped forward too early. Ask the average voter to mention anyone else and you are more likely to get 'Corbyn' or 'Abbott' than anyone else.

 

[Western Sunset]

All the poor diluted voters that think labour are going to do great things that the conservatives are failing on, I've got news for them, current labor is nothing more than Tori light with awful lot of gaps in actual policy or ideas

I'm still trying to figure out what "diluted voters" are, and what is "Tori light".

My only concern is why anyone should still vote Conservative.

 

[ainsworth74]

I'm still trying to figure out what "diluted voters" are, and what is "Tori light".

Hopefully @Blindtraveler won't mind me saying but they are a screen reader user and use text to speech to compose their posts. This software can sometimes garble the composition of messages. I'm sure they meant "deluded voters" and "Tory light".

 

[TheSmiths82]

Brilliant news, but the Labour party in the current form is more of a John Major Tory party than true Labour. However I am hoping Starmer is just playing it safe and will be a bit more bold if it he comes into power. I also realise the state of the economy means that Labour are a bit limited in what they can do anyway. I have had a lot of political upsets since 2016 but now my main focus is helping to get the current government out. I am sure I will speak for a lot of people when I say I just want this government out, and I will vote however it takes it help that happen. In my case that means voting for Labour but that isn't because I am particularly enthusiastic about the party they are just much better than the current lot in power (I hope).

Despite the above sounding a bit negative, if Labour do win 2024/25 I will be having the biggest celebration I have had in a long time.

 

[gg1]

Until Starmer gets stabbed in the back by Rayner who takes charge.

So essentially you're saying Labour are a hard left party with a thin and easily shattered centrist veneer.

All the poor diluted voters that think labour are going to do great things that the conservatives are failing on, I've got news for them, current labor is nothing more than Tori light ...

Yet you're saying they're nothing more that a watered down Conservative party.

You Tories really do need to get your stories straight, pick a narrative and stick with it.

.... with awful lot of gaps in actual policy or ideas

Whilst Starmer's fence sitting does irritate me, the point has been made previously on this forum that the Tories do have a track record of poaching vote winning Labour policies and claiming them as their own ideas so his reticence in making policy commitments this far away from a GE is understandable.

 

[GS250]

I'm still trying to figure out what "diluted voters" are, and what is "Tori light".

My only concern is why anyone should still vote Conservative.

Easy.

Many are not interested in politics. They have a decent job, kids are at an alright state school, everything is under control. Why risk changing anything?

 

[PsychoMouse]

While it doesn't surprise me massively that Labour won the Mid-Beds by-election, what is rather crazy to think is that this particular seat had been a safe-haven for the Conservatives for over 90 years (being held by them since 1931 until yesterday). It shows that they certainly can't take anything for granted right now, and reflects the true mood of the majority of the population towards the Conservatives.

It was the 55th safest Tory seat.

There’s a chance they could be the third largest party after the next election. There are no safe Tory seats anymore.

 

[Gloster]

Many are not interested in politics. They have a decent job, kids are at an alright state school, everything is under control. Why risk changing anything?

But the Conservatives have created such absolute chaos that even they are beginning to see problems that will disturb their peace and tranquility heading their way. There are still some ‘better the devil you know’ voters (as mentioned) above, but too many are now thinking that ‘the grass is greener on the other side’ and there won’t be anything but scorched earth left if the Conservatives stay in office.

 

[jfollows]

The Conservative "response" to the defeats appears to be along the lines that nobody who previously voted Conservative went and voted Labour this time, they just stayed at home.
Whilst there will of course be people for whom this is the case, it's at best wishful and deluded thinking by the Conservatives, or simply mendacious spin in order to make things look better for them than they actually are.

 

[Typhoon]

Brilliant news, but the Labour party in the current form is more of a John Major Tory party than true Labour. However I am hoping Starmer is just playing it safe and will be a bit more bold if it he comes into power. I also realise the state of the economy means that Labour are a bit limited in what they can do anyway. I have had a lot of political upsets since 2016 but now my main focus is helping to get the current government out. I am sure I will speak for a lot of people when I say I just want this government out, and I will vote however it takes it help that happen. In my case that means voting for Labour but that isn't because I am particularly enthusiastic about the party they are just much better than the current lot in power (I hope).

Despite the above sounding a bit negative, if Labour do win 2024/25 I will be having the biggest celebration I have had in a long time.

The current shower (and that includes the last two incumbents at least) make me pine for Major. He had ministers like Heseltine, Hurd, Patten, Dorrell and, above all, Clarke. They were actually competent, even if you disagreed with their politics. There were others who are best forgotten, including Redwood, who still seems to think he has something worthwhile to say (mistakenly) but it was not as bad as the current crew. One difference between Major and Starmer is that Starmer has seen off the 'ba$tard$' if only for now.

There’s a chance they could be the third largest party after the next election. There are no safe Tory seats anymore.

Slim chance. There is a big difference between reducing the government's majority by 4 (although, effectively, 2) and electing a new government.

The Conservative "response" to the defeats appears to be along the lines that nobody who previously voted Conservative went and voted Labour this time, they just stayed at home.

Staying at home can become a habit!

 

[jfollows]

I think, with the wisdom of hindsight, that these results prove that Rishi Sunak didn't act soon enough. In that, I mean that he spent his first year as PM relying on the fact that he wasn't incompetent, mendacious and useless in the way his two predecessors were, but it wasn't enough. He seems to have tried to escape and be seen to do something himself at the recent party conference, but it was too late and nobody believes him. I'm sure if he'd acted sooner he'd have garnered more positive results at the ballot box, but equally he might have been defenestrated by the right of his party.