Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party.

[brad465]

Mogg is out as business secretary.

The Cabinet has now become 200 years more modern.

 

[bib]

Overall I would say a narrow Labour victory, perhaps without a majority

Bearing in mind that in 2005 Labour had 40-odd seats in Scotland, I think their path to an outright majority is fairly tricky if the SNP continue to get 50+ seats in Scotland. Obviously if the current polls with a +25% Labour lead fed into an election it would be straightforward but if the Conservatives managed to run a half decent government for the next couple of years and there wasn't a severe recession and the polls went back to eg a 5-7% Labour lead, which is roughly what there was for most of this year, it might not give Labour a majority. Eg you can have a play with Electoral calculus

Election Prediction

 

[david1212]

Just watched Rishi's speech on tv. Seemed remarkably sensible to me. The following is all strongly paraphrased from my impressions, but my takeaways were: He very explicitly repudiated Liz Truss's approach, saying mistakes had been made. He talked about leading a professional Government - which looked to me like a strong dig at Boris. He stated that he'll be following the 2019 manifesto commitments. There was a strong general focus on economic stability. He also explicitly mentioned protecting the environment - maybe not everyone's priority, but something I always look for in this kind of speech, and something that seemed to me sorely lacking under Liz Truss.

My only complaint was that he was quite vague on details, not really talking about any explicit policies. But I guess that's understandable given the context of the speech.

The next test in my mind is... is he going to sack Therese Coffey and replace her with someone who shows more responsibility and understanding of the importance of healthy lifestyles to health?

Overall impression: Relief that it finally looks like we have a grown-up at No. 10.

The test though is putting the words into policies that are approved then implimented. Core to this is if he can unite the majority of the 357 tory MP's / the majority choose to unite behind him.

I think it's perhaps more likely that the racist "gammons" will switch to the parties aimed at that demographic (UKIP, Reform UK, BNP) and he'll lose votes that way even if he gains more moderate ones.

Yea, there are going to be a lot of racists unhappy at having a brown PM...

There will be gains and losses here.
Back seven weeks ago I pondered how much this influenced the tory members voting for Truss as PM rather than Sunak.

What do people think about the success of Sunak (or otherwise) at the next election, assuming it's around May or June 2024. Some points have been made in the other thread but just wondering the general consensus.

Overall I would say a narrow Labour victory, perhaps without a majority: but (as I indicated in the other thread) there is a significant risk that affluent Tory/Lib Dem swing voters may be charmed by him. Enough to make me worried; 19 years of one party is simply too much, though I still think on balance it'll be Labour (let's say 60% probability Labour largest party, 40% probability the Tories)

Presuming there is not a General Election before May, June or even October 2024 and Sunak is still PM this will depend on what happens over the next 18 - 24 months.

Some things Sunak has no or little control or influence on but has to handle their effect in the UK e.g. Russia and Ukraine, global energy prices, mild or cold winters, Covid and 'flu. The chancellor and he do not have full control of the financial situation either. Will inflation at least falling and the threat of high mortgage rates ended while the FTSE 100, pension funds and investments are recovering ? Of things in his control critical will be the performance of the health service, pensions and benefit rises against inflation plus taxation. Will the misbehavior that has come out of the woodwork this year and the downfall of Johnson be forgotton? Can he and the party as a whole keep the sheet clean going forward? While core to this forum rail and public transport is well down the list for the majority of the electorate.

If overall the mood in the country is more positive than the current doom and gloom plus the party as a whole are playing nicely there could be a tory win but a significantly smaller majority as ' red wall ' sets return to red. If not Labour will win but at best a small majority or as you suggest a minority due to the number Scottish seats being won by the SNP and the Northern Ireland parties.

Before this is the next 18 - 24 days then weeks.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

There will be gains and losses here.
Back seven weeks ago I pondered how much this influenced the tory members voting for Truss as PM rather than Sunak.

I would say it had next to no influence at all. There are many things you can legitimately criticise the Tory party and Tory party members for, but in my experience, one thing much in their favour is that, generally speaking, they don't give a monkeys what colour skin you have - they care only about whether you are going to implement the policies they want. That contrasts strongly with Labour members who will often tend to deliberately promote/select people purely because they are either female or non-white (and yet who still seem to end up with almost no ethnic minority MPs sufficiently talented to perform well in senior shadow cabinet positions).

 

[Gloster]

One thing that strikes me as different to previous handovers is the status of the new PM at the last election. In recent years it seems that the incoming PM was one of the top leadership team at the election and there is always an element for the voters of, “If the PM we are voting for goes we can expect one of the two or three next in line to takeover. Who are they?” The very top leadership get nearly as much scrutiny as the PM. But Truss and, to an even greater extent, Sunak were well down the list and unlikely to have their words and deeds examined to any great extent.

 

[WatcherZero]

The few remaining (so far) from the Truss cabinet.

Didnt expect such a fast house cleaning of the Truss camp.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

And Therese Coffey is still there. Bah!

 

[GS250]

...and I won't be forgetting which party it was who advocated more COVID restrictions, and for a longer period of time.

Nor will I forget that it was Rishi Sunak who saved us from having another lockdown at Christmas last year.

Those who were the first to demand lockdowns tend to be the first to then complain about austerity. I suppose a by-product of having little concept of the value of money.

Oh well we're hopefully all being a little more savvy with our money.

 

[Busaholic]

I would say it had next to no influence at all. There are many things you can legitimately criticise the Tory party and Tory party members for, but in my experience, one thing much in their favour is that, generally speaking, they don't give a monkeys what colour skin you have - they care only about whether you are going to implement the policies they want. That contrasts strongly with Labour members who will often tend to deliberately promote/select people purely because they are either female or non-white (and yet who still seem to end up with almost no ethnic minority MPs sufficiently talented to perform well in senior shadow cabinet positions).

I'll forgive the malapropism in the second sentence, as you obviously aren't the sort of person to choose a deliberately provocative word to make your point. I can see what you're getting at, but I think Tory race discrimination is done in a much subtler way than used to be the case. It's the part of the party housing the members and MPs who used to back UKIP or more extreme parties that has learned to reel in its neck, especially at councillor level, and if Musk gets control of Twitter and allows almost instant self-deletion of inflammatory tweets that particular problem may go away.

As for Labour, I'd disagree that almost all their ethnic minority MPs have made a mess of their shadow cabinet positions. Diane Abbot's main problem was laziness imo, but that trait can help you get chosen to be P.M. if you're a Tory! David Lammy, Chuka Umunna, Sadig Khan and Clive Lewis are three who do or did a decent job, although the female element is less positive. Then again, all parties seem to have difficulties with Muslim women becoming MPs and seeking it as a start to acquiring more power and influence within their grouping. For some reason, Hindus seem less likely to gravitate towards Labour than towards the Tories, but maybe that's just the class system at work!

 

[nw1]

Those who were the first to demand lockdowns tend to be the first to then complain about austerity. I suppose a by-product of having little concept of the value of money.

Oh well we're hopefully all being a little more savvy with our money.

I don't think it was Sunak who saved us from another lockdown. If anyone, it was Boris, and I say that as a decided non-fan. Firstly, virtually no other country (Netherlands and Austria were the exceptions, IIRC) had one, so if we had one, we would be one of a very small number of exceptions; and secondly, it was mostly Partygate. With that fresh out of the woodwork Johnson knew he could not implement another one for fear of being charged with hypocrisy.

 

[Howardh]

Not really much more different when Blair was replaced by Brown mid-term without the electorate having their say in a General Election.

Think the difference is at the general election then, it was known that Blair would resign/retire as PM to be replaced by Brown, so if that wasn't your thing then you had the opportunity to vote another way.

When the country voted Tory in 2019 it was in the knowledge that Johnson would be PM. To have him resign and another MP appointed PM was always on the cards (possible if not probable!) but to end up with a third should mean "enough's enough, let's put Sunak's to to country to give him a proper mandate".

 

[nw1]

The Cabinet has now become 200 years more modern.

Well, slightly more modern, I suspect, without Mogg. It's still stuck in a time period sometime before 1st Jan 1973, of course.

 

[Howardh]

Well, slightly more modern, I suspect, without Mogg. It's still stuck in a time period sometime before 1st Jan 1973, of course.

Very true!

 

[nw1]

If I were the Tories and wanted to put the Johnson/Truss era to bed I would agree to holding an election in the spring/early summer to see if we really want more of the same (albeit with a serious veneer) or whether we want something different.

I doubt they will, but any less is really just a sign that they haven't acknowledged their recent mistakes and arrogantly want to carry on as if nothing has happened.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

If I were the Tories and wanted to put the Johnson/Truss era to bed I would agree to holding an election in the spring/early summer to see if we really want more of the same (albeit with a serious veneer) or whether we want something different.

But you are most certainly not one of the Tories and that is why that both Starmer and your good self are thwarted in your aspirations.

 

[Thirteen]

Suella back as Home Secretary, must be the shortest time between resigning and coming back which makes me wonder if was planned.

Shapps at BEIS seems a bit of a demotion. Will be interesting who gets Education and Health.

 

[RichJF]

Braverman (in my opinion) is a vile person. Some extremely dangerous views & aspirations.

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

Shapps at BEIS seems a bit of a demotion. Will be interesting who gets Education and Health.

Huge demotion considering the support Grant Shapps has shown to Sunak's campaigns both times, but there we go

 

[yorksrob]

Think the difference is at the general election then, it was known that Blair would resign/retire as PM to be replaced by Brown, so if that wasn't your thing then you had the opportunity to vote another way.

When the country voted Tory in 2019 it was in the knowledge that Johnson would be PM. To have him resign and another MP appointed PM was always on the cards (possible if not probable!) but to end up with a third should mean "enough's enough, let's put Sunak's to to country to give him a proper mandate".

I agree. Labour under Brown (G) underwent a stylistic change, but not much changed by way of policy from New Labour.

This Tory government, by contrast, has swung wildly from Johnson Conservatism, to USA Republican style small state economics under Truss, then likely back towards swingeing 2008 era austerity without so much as a consultation of the electorate.

It's simply not on.

 

[Eyersey468]

We'll see if the warm words have much of an effect on the problems caused by the mini-budget.

It's still the same Tory party that caused the fiasco as far as I'm concerned. I shaln't be forgetting.

I won't forget either to be honest, i will be voting independent at the next election as I simply don't trust any of the politicial leaders at present

 

[SteveM70]

Braverman (in my opinion) is a vile person. Some extremely dangerous views & aspirations.

Yes, I agree, but that's a perception issue. What is more objective is that this morning Sunak spoke about integrity, and hours later reappointed Braverman five days after she admitted breaching the ministerial code. Perhaps his very expensive education didn't teach him what integrity actually means?

 

[Scotrail12]

Really? Why Suella de vil again? Not someone who should be anywhere near power. Someone who acts like an edgy teenager going about 'woke' issues rather than policing. I don't feel comfortable as an LGBT person with her as Home Secretary.

 

[Thirteen]

I think the Ministerial Code breaking by Suella was done to sabotage Truss given she reported herself.

Transport is one I wonder about as there isn't anyone who comes to mind who may get it and it's possible they'll keep it intact.

 

[takno]

Suella back as Home Secretary, must be the shortest time between resigning and coming back which makes me wonder if was planned.

Shapps at BEIS seems a bit of a demotion. Will be interesting who gets Education and Health.

He's brought Braveman back? Seems like a really needless and painful own goal, since "sacking" her was one of the few decent decisions Truss made. Wonder if she will be made to walk back her dangerous and stupid positions on legal immigration, Rwanda and cannabis.

 

[najaB]

Nor will I forget that it was Rishi Sunak who saved us from having another lockdown at Christmas last year.

Nor that his Eat out to Help Out scheme resulted in at least an additional 60,000 Covid cases and zero net benefit to the hospitality industry.

 

[Thirteen]

Therese Coffey gets DEFRA, Mel Stride gets DWP, Steve Barclay gets Health and Gillian Keegan gets Education.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Appointing Cruella was a bizarre move when all the others made sense (in the background of it being a Tory Government, the question of whether Labour would be preferable is separate). I wonder will she last?

 

[Thirteen]

Coffey at DEFRA is most certainly a demotion compared to Health.

 

[jon0844]

Nor that his Eat out to Help Out scheme resulted in at least an additional 60,000 Covid cases and zero net benefit to the hospitality industry.

I thought the big chains did okay, but the smaller people (who arguably needed help more) found the process so convoluted that many couldn't even sign on to the scheme.

It does seem to me that all the money spent during Covid helped the bigger companies, or their own, and if you were freelance or contracted then chances are you got zero help.

The Tories no longer represent the shopkeepers, but the corporates, hedge funds and venture capitalists.

I hoped Rishi might see the bigger picture but his selections today seem to be quite bizarre - especially a Home Secretary that was supposedly forwarding documents to her private email and got found out because she CC'd the wrong person.

Plus didn't she anger India with her comments and right now India is so proud of Rishi becoming PM that they hardly need this distraction.

 

[Thirteen]

I find it fascinating that the Tories have managed to have three female PMs and the first non white PM whereas Labour hasn't even had a female Opposition Leader aside from temporary ones like Margaret Beckett and Harriet Harman. It does make me wonder if Starmer were to stand down, if they'd go for someone who's the polar opposite of Sunak like Angela Rayner or Lisa Nandy.