Russia invades Ukraine

[ainsworth74]

Thing is how much of the rot that is clearly in every other branch of the Russian military is pervasive within the Strategic Rocket Forces?

I bet there is rot but the level that would be required for them to rendered ineffectual such that we could ignore them I think is beyond credibility really.

though it would be somewhat funny for Putin to launch a nuclear strike only for nothing much to really happen

Yes up until the NATO response arrives on targets in Russia as I'm sure that our weapons will broadly work as advertised. Then the loss of life and climate effects will make things considerable less funny I fear!

 

[Cloud Strife]

I wonder if Putin has a WhatsApp group where they discuss what to say and then multiple Russian politicians and generals cut and paste it verbatim...?!

The ruling party in Poland is notorious for this. They send out a daily information pack, and everyone in the party is obliged to repeat it word-for-word. You often see really insignificant local politicians doing exactly this, and they get upset when you ridicule them for it.

 

[Gloster]

It looks like Moldova is going to be the next to have its citizens liberated from living under a fascist state by the simple method of ending their lives. Various curious explosions are reported to have occurred in the pro-Russian Transnistria region.

 

[yorksrob]

A lot of pathetic bleating and moaning from Russia today about how no one invites them to any meetings, alongside the usual threats of escalation.

 

[Cloud Strife]

It looks like Moldova is going to be the next to have its citizens liberated from living under a fascist state by the simple method of ending their lives. Various curious explosions are reported to have occurred in the pro-Russian Transnistria region.

I find these various explosions to be utterly fascinating. It's very obvious who was behind the second attack on the communication towers, but what should frighten Russia is that the saboteurs are able to operate freely. Ukraine has unlimited access to Russian-speaking people who can easily blend into societies, and the Moldova-Transnistria administrative line is wide open. For example here - https://www.google.pl/maps/@46.8561...no-pi-0-ya117.09929-ro-0-fo100!7i10240!8i5120 - the pharmacy is located within Moldovan-controlled territory, while the car park is in Transnistria.

It may well be that the first attack was a Russian provocation, and the saboteurs took advantage of it to take out a fairly important centre for communications.

I wouldn't be surprised if Moldova and Ukraine seal off Transnistria in the near future, though.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It looks like Moldova is going to be the next to have its citizens liberated from living under a fascist state by the simple method of ending their lives. Various curious explosions are reported to have occurred in the pro-Russian Transnistria region.

If they want Transnistria they'll just walk in. It's pro-Russian and essentially wants to be part of Russia.

 

[Cloud Strife]

If they want Transnistria they'll just walk in. It's pro-Russian and essentially wants to be part of Russia.

They need to get there first...

There has to be very serious thought at the highest level as to a Ukrainian invasion of Transnistria. There's only 1500 troops there, and Transnistria represents a serious threat towards Odesa.

 

[Pete_uk]

There has been an exodus of people from Transnistria in recent days.

 

[dgl]

Germany are now to supply anti-aircraft tanks to Ukraine, quote from the BBC news live feed.

the German government announced it would send about 50 tanks with anti-aircraft weaponry to Ukraine - a reversal of a long-standing policy

 

[brad465]

Russia suspending gas supplies to Poland:

Ukraine war: Russia halts gas exports to Poland and Bulgaria

Moscow says 'unfriendly' countries must start paying for its gas in roubles.

www.bbc.co.uk

Russia will stop sending gas to Poland from Wednesday, the Polish state gas company PGNiG has said.
PGNiG said Russian energy firm Gazprom had told it all gas deliveries to the country would be halted from 08:00 CET (06:00 GMT).
Gazprom has justified the suspension under new rules announced last month, which mean "unfriendly" countries must pay for gas in roubles.
PGNiG has refused to do this.
PGNiG relies on Gazprom for the majority of its gas imports and bought 53% of its imports from the Russian company in the first quarter of this year.
It described the suspension as a breach of contract, adding that the company would take steps to reinstate the flow of gas.

Following the news, Poland's climate ministry said the country's energy supplies were secure.
Climate Minister Anna Moskwa said there was no need to draw gas from reserves and gas to customers would not be cut.
PGNiG said its underground gas storage was almost 80% full and, with summer approaching, demand was lower.
Poland also has alternative supply sources, including a liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal in Swinoujscie.
And on 1 May, a new gas pipeline connection with Lithuania is due to open that will give Poland access to gas from Lithuania's LNG terminal.
Poland was already planning to stop importing Russian gas by the end of the year, when its long-term supply contract with Gazprom expires.
And a new pipeline delivering gas from Norway, known as the "Baltic Pipe", comes online in October. It should reach full capacity by the end of the year and could replace all Russian deliveries.

Poland has the Baltic pipeline coming online in October as things stand, so if it can hold out until then they'll be fine. I suspect this is testing the waters for wider gas supply suspensions.

 

[Loppylugs]

Russia suspending gas supplies to Poland:

And Bulgaria as well now.

 

[Chingy]

Russia deciding that the west's sanctions aren't enough and go ahead with some self inflicting sanctions of their own, suspending gas supplies to key European customers at a time of year where gas consumption is at its lowest going forward, therefore having a lower effect on said countries.

 

[MattRat]

There is one nation that could bring the war to an end this afternoon and it isn't any member of NATO, it isn't the Ukraine, it's Russia. They're the aggressor here, they're the ones raping Ukrainian women and girls, executing men and burying them in mass graves (or burning the bodies in mobile crematoria), they're the ones targeting hospitals, schools and civilian shelters. Russia. Not NATO. Not Ukraine. Russia.

If Russia withdrew it's forces from Ukraine the war would be over today. There isn't a "sea of warmongers" there's Russia brutalising an independent sovereign nation and it's people.

Could you explain, precisely, how NATO is responsible for Vladimir Putin's decision to invade an independent, sovereign non NATO-member country.

To me the key is the " the capability to very quickly reproduce that capability" - which indicates to me that it's more focused on economic weakening, rather than military.

Russia could stop this war, yes, but will they? But, NATO and others are only escalating. We sanction them too hard, they turn off the gas supply, dooming millions. We build up forces on their border, Cold War 2, and possibly WW3, killing up to billions.

The question you have to ask, is whether that is a price you are willing to pay? It's easy to say yes right now, but, when you and your family get affected, you might change your tune....

 

[takno]

Russia could stop this war, yes, but will they? But, NATO and others are only escalating. We sanction them too hard, they turn off the gas supply, dooming millions. We build up forces on their border, Cold War 2, and possibly WW3, killing up to billions.

The question you have to ask, is whether that is a price you are willing to pay? It's easy to say yes right now, but, when you and your family get affected, you might change your tune....

Once again, you are posing this question to people whose friends and family are already affected. It isn't 1938, and this isn't a faraway conflict amongst people of whom we know little.

On a more practical note, turning the gas supply off now just gives people 6 months to do something about it, so hopefully we can plan for winter. If you're going to worry about wider effects and people dying then you'd be better off thinking about the critical effect on global food supply which will baked in by next winter if the Russians don't stop stealing Ukrainian tractors in the next few weeks

 

[najaB]

But, NATO and others are only escalating.

Remind me: was it Russia than sent their tanks and troops in across the border, is it Russians killing indiscriminately and committing war crimes, is it Russia shelling and bombing Ukrainian cities or is it "NATO and others" attacking Russia?

 

[Cloud Strife]

Russia could stop this war, yes, but will they?

They will stop when the cost becomes too much for them. The UAF isn't even fully mobilised due to a lack of weapons.

Poland has the Baltic pipeline coming online in October as things stand, so if it can hold out until then they'll be fine. I suspect this is testing the waters for wider gas supply suspensions.

Non-government aligned observers suggest that there's nothing to worry about in PL at this exact moment. The 'uh-oh' moment will be if Russia cuts off gas to consumers who can pay more (Germany, in particular), as they will compete for supplies from Norway. As it stands today, Poland can cover her needs next winter.

 

[Falcon1200]

The question you have to ask, is whether that is a price you are willing to pay? It's easy to say yes right now, but, when you and your family get affected, you might change your tune....

What is the alternative ? Allow a rogue aggressive nation ruled by a dictatorial despot to invade, occupy or destroy other nations at will - That doesn't normally end well.

 

[Annetts key]

Russia deciding that the west's sanctions aren't enough and go ahead with some self inflicting sanctions of their own, suspending gas supplies to key European customers at a time of year where gas consumption is at its lowest going forward, therefore having a lower effect on said countries.

Russia: after shooting yourself in one foot with the failed attempt to take most of Ukraine quickly at great cost to your own military forces, now how to shoot yourself in your other foot - threaten to cut off about half of your oil customers and about three quarters of your gas customers…

Yes, Putin is showing his strength of intellect here

 

[yorksrob]

Russia: after shooting yourself in one foot with the failed attempt to take most of Ukraine quickly at great cost to your own military forces, now how to shoot yourself in your other foot - threaten to cut off about half of your oil customers and about three quarters of your gas customers…

Yes, Putin is showing his strength of intellect here

Yet another good reason to wind down all trade with the country.

 

[dgl]

Yet another good reason to wind down all trade with the country.

Looks like he's doing that for us, we can't buy what he won't let us have and the chances of anywhere else in Europe (well the sane countries that is) paying him wil Roubles is nil. Plus any country outside of Europe that might want his oil/gas will knwo what predicament he is in and drive a VERY hard bargain, market price he won't get!

 

[MattRat]

Once again, you are posing this question to people whose friends and family are already affected. It isn't 1938, and this isn't a faraway conflict amongst people of whom we know little.

On a more practical note, turning the gas supply off now just gives people 6 months to do something about it, so hopefully we can plan for winter. If you're going to worry about wider effects and people dying then you'd be better off thinking about the critical effect on global food supply which will baked in by next winter if the Russians don't stop stealing Ukrainian tractors in the next few weeks

And making the war longer will solve that? Because that's where we are headed it seems.

Admittedly, there has been reasonable discourse here, but the same cannot be said for outside these forums.

And then we are right back at the same question: How many lives are we willing to sacrifice to stop Russia? And is that a price you are willing to pay, whatever the cost?

 

[jon0844]

What do you suggest doing? Just allowing Putin to do what he wants, so we can somehow restore relations?

 

[TheEdge]

And then we are right back at the same question: How many lives are we willing to sacrifice to stop Russia? And is that a price you are willing to pay, whatever the cost?

That's not a choice for the West or NATO. That's a choice for the Ukrainian government and people. While they still have the will and desire to defend their country then it's only right we continue to support them against such blatant aggression.

 

[Bletchleyite]

What do you suggest doing? Just allowing Putin to do what he wants, so we can somehow restore relations?

When the alternative may be "global nuclear annihilation" there is a chance that that is actually the best choice, particularly as he appears to have serious health issues and as such may die soon.

Don't know about you, but if someone has a knife or gun to my throat they can have my wallet and phone. Whereas if they just threatened me with their fists (analogous to conventional weapons) I'd possibly fight back.

That's not a choice for the West or NATO.

Well, it is, because we could put boots on the ground and planes in the sky. But that's then WW III, which Putin may take nuclear, and then we all die. The latter is a "worst possible" outcome which must be avoided at all costs. Even Putin taking over the whole world (which isn't going to happen) is less bad than that.

 

[nw1]

When the alternative may be "global nuclear annihilation" there is a chance that that is actually the best choice, particularly as he appears to have serious health issues and as such may die soon.

I think the nuclear question is what should drive our response, yes. We should help Ukraine to the extent that there is no, or minuscule, chance of a nuclear response.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I think the nuclear question is what should drive our response, yes. We should help Ukraine to the extent that there is no, or minuscule, chance of a nuclear response.

Agreed, and I believe that is what we are doing.

 

[tommy2215]

Russia could stop this war, yes, but will they? But, NATO and others are only escalating. We sanction them too hard, they turn off the gas supply, dooming millions. We build up forces on their border, Cold War 2, and possibly WW3, killing up to billions.

NATO has consistently refused to send troops to Ukraine, to make nuclear threats against Russia or call for the removal of Putin. Meanwhile Russia are making constant nuclear threats, are slaughtering Ukrainian citizens and threatening other countries too. NATO are most definitely not the ones escalating this war.

 

[MattRat]

When the alternative may be "global nuclear annihilation" there is a chance that that is actually the best choice, particularly as he appears to have serious health issues and as such may die soon.

Don't know about you, but if someone has a knife or gun to my throat they can have my wallet and phone. Whereas if they just threatened me with their fists (analogous to conventional weapons) I'd possibly fight back.



Well, it is, because we could put boots on the ground and planes in the sky. But that's then WW III, which Putin may take nuclear, and then we all die. The latter is a "worst possible" outcome which must be avoided at all costs. Even Putin taking over the whole world (which isn't going to happen) is less bad than that.

Thank you for helping make my point for me.

I think the nuclear question is what should drive our response, yes. We should help Ukraine to the extent that there is no, or minuscule, chance of a nuclear response.

And I agree, I was just referring to those wanting to escalate the situation, which I feel may have been misunderstood.

 

[Bletchleyite]

NATO has consistently refused to end troops to Ukraine, to make nuclear threats against Russia or call for the removal of Putin. Meanwhile Russia are making constant nuclear threats, are slaughtering Ukrainian citizens and threatening other countries too. NATO are most definitely not the ones escalating this war.

Indeed they aren't in military terms, though individual countries (US and UK primarily) need to stop the pointless rhetoric and just get on with supplying arms on the quiet. The rhetoric is pointless escalation. If we want to escalate, we need to do it using troops and planes, but if we don't we need to keep it quiet.

 

[nw1]

Indeed they aren't in military terms, though individual countries (US and UK primarily) need to stop the pointless rhetoric and just get on with supplying arms on the quiet. The rhetoric is pointless escalation. If we want to escalate, we need to do it using troops and planes, but if we don't we need to keep it quiet.

I haven't really been following what the government have been doing in this respect (I prefer to limit my exposure to coverage of the war in all honesty, for my own sanity) but sadly the US and UK have long-standing form in this respect. I agree that quiet help to Ukraine is the best thing to do. Sabre-rattling won't scare Putin, I suspect, so has little purpose.