Russia invades Ukraine

[DustyBin]

There was a Russian attack some days ago on a Ukrainian electricity supply plant for their railways that it was said were used to bring military supplies for the Ukrainian forces from Europe and America. Are all locomotives electric traction and how disruptive has that attack been to the Ukrainian forces?

From what I’ve read, the level of disruption was similar to that experienced most days on Thameslink (i.e. a major inconvenience but things are back up and running).

I believe a lot of the network is electrified but they have a number of diesel freight locomotives including some pretty new examples. Others probably know more than me though!

It won't. Bad though it is, mentioning it in the same thread as Russia's barbarism is ridiculous.

I think somebody has been reading too much Foundations of Geopolitics……

 

[daodao]

I think somebody has been reading too much Foundations of Geopolitics……

I was not previously aware of it, but Putin has clearly used it as his guidebook. While much of it endorses/promotes Russian expansionism into its "near abroad" and underpins the philosophy behind the terrible "special military operation in the Ukraine", the following key messages are in line with EU aims:

• France should be encouraged to form a bloc with Germany, as they both have a "firm anti-Atlanticist tradition".
• The United Kingdom, a mere "extraterritorial floating base of the U.S.", should be cut off from Europe.

 

[Peterthegreat]

I

I was not previously aware of it, but Putin has clearly used it as his guidebook. While much of it endorses/promotes Russian expansionism into its "near abroad" and underpins the philosophy behind the terrible "special military operation in the Ukraine", the following key messages are in line with EU aims:

• France should be encouraged to form a bloc with Germany, as they both have a "firm anti-Atlanticist tradition".
• The United Kingdom, a mere "extraterritorial floating base of the U.S.", should be cut off from Europe.

I think you will find it wasn't the EU that "cut" the UK off.

 

[DustyBin]

I was not previously aware of it, but Putin has clearly used it as his guidebook. While much of it endorses/promotes Russian expansionism into its "near abroad" and underpins the philosophy behind the terrible "special military operation in the Ukraine", the following key messages are in line with EU aims:

• France should be encouraged to form a bloc with Germany, as they both have a "firm anti-Atlanticist tradition".
• The United Kingdom, a mere "extraterritorial floating base of the U.S.", should be cut off from Europe.

It does provide an interesting, if somewhat disturbing insight into Russian “foreign policy” under the Putin regime.

I’m not sure the UK is, or will be, “cut off from Europe” though? Leaving the EU does not equate to the same thing, and the war in Ukraine has so far only increased European solidarity (although there have of course been challenges along the way). It’s yet another example of Putin getting the opposite of what he wanted.

 

[philosopher]

I was not previously aware of it, but Putin has clearly used it as his guidebook. While much of it endorses/promotes Russian expansionism into its "near abroad" and underpins the philosophy behind the terrible "special military operation in the Ukraine", the following key messages are in line with EU aims:

• France should be encouraged to form a bloc with Germany, as they both have a "firm anti-Atlanticist tradition".
• The United Kingdom, a mere "extraterritorial floating base of the U.S.", should be cut off from Europe.

I do suspect there was a lot of Russian meddling in the Brexit vote which probably increased the odds of Britain leaving. So Putin may have already achieved one of his key geopolitical objectives.

 

[DustyBin]

I do suspect there was a lot of Russian meddling in the Brexit vote which probably increased the odds of Britain leaving.

Quite possibly (and I say that as a leaver).

So Putin may have already achieved one of his key geopolitical objectives.

Again though, we’re not “cut off” in a way that benefits Russia. We’ll continue to trade with Europe (and indeed the EU) and remain a key player in European security. The EU and Europe are distinct entities, and the latter appears to be more united than ever in the face of Russian aggression.

 

[takno]

Again though, we’re not “cut off” in a way that benefits Russia. We’ll continue to trade with Europe (and indeed the EU) and remain a key player in European security. The EU and Europe are distinct entities, and the latter appears to be more united than ever in the face of Russian aggression.

Typical British exceptionalism to assume that Russia wanted to force Brexit because Britain was special. Any large country leaving was likely to mess things up in the EU for 5 years, and seriously disrupt the eastward expansion. Britain just had the right people already in place to help push us over the edge.

 

[Giugiaro]

• France should be encouraged to form a bloc with Germany, as they both have a "firm anti-Atlanticist tradition".

Had Putin had its way with the US Elections, imagine what would these last three months be like had Trump been reelected:

Case in point:

Emmanuel Macron warns Europe: NATO is becoming brain-dead

America is turning its back on the European project. Time to wake up, the French president tells The Economist

www.economist.com

Trump says he threatened he wouldn't defend NATO against Russia - The Washington Post

Trump Discussed Pulling U.S. From NATO, Aides Say Amid New Concerns Over Russia (Published 2019)

The president’s repeatedly stated desire in private to withdraw from the alliance has raised concerns among officials who fear he may revisit the threat.

www.nytimes.com

Trump impeachment inquiry: Dissecting the phone call behind it

The BBC's Anthony Zurcher analyses key parts of the transcript of Trump's call with Ukraine president.

www.bbc.com

 

[DustyBin]

Typical British exceptionalism to assume that Russia wanted to force Brexit because Britain was special. Any large country leaving was likely to mess things up in the EU for 5 years, and seriously disrupt the eastward expansion. Britain just had the right people already in place to help push us over the edge.

In the context of what was being discussed (i.e. the book I made reference to) it does make sense though. It's not worked out as per the "vision" but it's likely that Putin wanted Brexit to happen (and again I voted leave so this isn't about grinding axes). The UK is "special" to Putin, he's made that quite clear!

I agree with your second point though.

Had Putin had its way with the US Elections, imagine what would these last three months be like had Trump been reelected:

Case in point:

Emmanuel Macron warns Europe: NATO is becoming brain-dead

America is turning its back on the European project. Time to wake up, the French president tells The Economist

www.economist.com

Trump says he threatened he wouldn't defend NATO against Russia - The Washington Post

Trump Discussed Pulling U.S. From NATO, Aides Say Amid New Concerns Over Russia (Published 2019)

The president’s repeatedly stated desire in private to withdraw from the alliance has raised concerns among officials who fear he may revisit the threat.

www.nytimes.com

Trump impeachment inquiry: Dissecting the phone call behind it

The BBC's Anthony Zurcher analyses key parts of the transcript of Trump's call with Ukraine president.

www.bbc.com

Some would argue that the invasion wouldn't have taken place. I honestly don't know, but I think it's quite possible Putin views (or perhaps viewed) the US, and by default the West, as weak under Biden.

 

[Cloud Strife]

I do suspect there was a lot of Russian meddling in the Brexit vote which probably increased the odds of Britain leaving. So Putin may have already achieved one of his key geopolitical objectives.

Well, one look at Aaron Banks should tell you all you need to know on that topic.

Anyway, another day, and from what I can piece together, it seems as if Russia is still gaining territory, but it's very slow and at considerable expense. American analysts generally suggest that Ukraine will have a chance at counterattacking, especially as they seem to be very careful about what they actually deploy on the front lines.

My armchair observation based on nothing much is that Ukraine will be well aware that Russia doesn't really have any tactics beyond "throw men at the front line and progress slowly" - so they can keep losing very small chunks of territory in exchange for inflicting serious damage. We know that the Ukrainian territorial defences are capable of inflicting damage on Russian units, which will also help the Ukrainian side.

The interesting question for me is why Putin hasn't declared war yet. The only answer I can find is that a declaration of war means that Russian infrastructure is in play, which means destruction of the hated Kerch Bridge along with widespread sabotage within Russia.

 

[najaB]

I honestly don't know, but I think it's quite possible Putin views (or perhaps viewed) the US, and by default the West, as weak under Biden.

I think he's believed the US as weak for longer than that, probably starting from what he saw as a weak reaction to the 9-11 attacks.

 

[Cloud Strife]

I think he's believed the US as weak for longer than that, probably starting from what he saw as a weak reaction to the 9-11 attacks.

And it would seem to be a fatal miscalculation. The US is about to push another $20 billion in direct military aid to Ukraine, which means a truly frightening amount of firepower at the disposal of Ukraine.

 

[DustyBin]

I think he's believed the US as weak for longer than that, probably starting from what he saw as a weak reaction to the 9-11 attacks.

You could well be right.

And it would seem to be a fatal miscalculation. The US is about to push another $20 billion in direct military aid to Ukraine, which means a truly frightening amount of firepower at the disposal of Ukraine.

At it to the list!

 

[ainsworth74]

I think he's believed the US as weak for longer than that, probably starting from what he saw as a weak reaction to the 9-11 attacks.

I can't help but feel that one of the final triggers on this was the utterly shambolic withdrawal from Afghanistan last summer. Russia started the build up that eventually culminated in the February 24 invasion of Ukraine in October 2021 and I can't help but feel that seeing the utterly disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan will have helped cement the view that US and the West as a whole was, divided and would do very little to help Ukraine.

 

[najaB]

I can't help but feel that one of the final triggers on this was the utterly shambolic withdrawal from Afghanistan last summer.

Quite possibly. Though, if it was it shows that he has a short memory. The Soviet withdrawal thirty-something years earlier wasn't exactly orderly either.

 

[ainsworth74]

Quite possibly. Though, if it was it shows that he has a short memory. The Soviet withdrawal thirty-something years earlier wasn't exactly orderly either.

Yes but not long after that the Soviet Union imploded (obviously Afghanistan wasn't the only issue that caused that!) so if anything that would reinforce the idea that a disorderly withdrawal from Afghanistan is a real indication of weakness.

 

[nw1]

I was not previously aware of it, but Putin has clearly used it as his guidebook. While much of it endorses/promotes Russian expansionism into its "near abroad" and underpins the philosophy behind the terrible "special military operation in the Ukraine", the following key messages are in line with EU aims:

• France should be encouraged to form a bloc with Germany, as they both have a "firm anti-Atlanticist tradition".
• The United Kingdom, a mere "extraterritorial floating base of the U.S.", should be cut off from Europe.

Does the EU actually believe this, i.e. it wants to make the UK even more distant from the rest of Europe than is the case after Brexit?

Doesn't make the EU look good if so. And I say that as a remainer and a vehement opponent of Brexit. Time for this silly squabble between the UK and the EU to end and to work as closely as they can together - essentially morph Brexit into the softest possible version.

 

[ainsworth74]

Does the EU actually believe this, i.e. it wants to make the UK even more distant from the rest of Europe than is the case after Brexit?

Only in the fevered imaginations of Brexiteers as far as I can tell. It's just a shame that those imaginations so neatly correspond with Russia and Putin's geo-strategic goals...

 

[najaB]

Does the EU actually believe this, i.e. it wants to make the UK even more distant from the rest of Europe than is the case after Brexit?

Nope. Just look at the fact that they offered an extension to the transition period when Covid hit and it was the UK that turned it down.

 

[daodao]

Does the EU actually believe this, i.e. it wants to make the UK even more distant from the rest of Europe than is the case after Brexit?

Doesn't make the EU look good if so. And I say that as a remainer and a vehement opponent of Brexit. Time for this silly squabble between the UK and the EU to end and to work as closely as they can together - essentially morph Brexit into the softest possible version.

The typical French view of "perfidious Albion" is outlined in the following article by Michel Rocard, former Socialist PM of France, in 2014:

A French message to Britain: get out of Europe before you wreck it​

A French message to Britain: get out of Europe before you wreck it | Michel Rocard

Michel Rocard: The European Union is on its knees but you, the British, want to block even small steps to democratic legitimacy

www.theguardian.com

The French right feel the same way, hence Charles de Gaulle twice saying no to British membership of the then EEC in the 1960s.

If the Westminster government wrecks the NI protocol to pacify the DUP, then the EU will make life very difficult for the UK, which is just what Putin wants.

 

[nw1]

Nope. Just look at the fact that they offered an extension to the transition period when Covid hit and it was the UK that turned it down.

That is true; was just wondering if something had changed in the meantime due to the Johnson government's constant antagonism.

 

[Strathclyder]

I can't help but feel that one of the final triggers on this was the utterly shambolic withdrawal from Afghanistan last summer. Russia started the build up that eventually culminated in the February 24 invasion of Ukraine in October 2021 and I can't help but feel that seeing the utterly disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan will have helped cement the view that US and the West as a whole was, divided and would do very little to help Ukraine.

Quite possibly, yeah. Even putting aside what appears to be Putin's conveniently foggy memory (the Soviet Union's withdrawal from Afghanistan as @najaB points out was anything but orderly), it's looking more and more like the mother of all miscalculations with each passing day though, what with yet more military aid for Ukraine being pushed for by the US.

 

[nw1]

The typical French view of "perfidious Albion" is outlined in the following article by Michel Rocard, former Socialist PM of France, in 2014:

A French message to Britain: get out of Europe before you wreck it | Michel Rocard

Michel Rocard: The European Union is on its knees but you, the British, want to block even small steps to democratic legitimacy

www.theguardian.com

The French right feel the same way, hence Charles de Gaulle twice saying no to British membership of the then EEC in the 1960s.

Rocard sounds like a rather confrontational individual who wishes to tar all British people with the same brush. Just like the likes of Farage appear to want to tar all continental Europeans with the same brush.

I'm fed up of small-minded idiots - on both sides of the Channel - who appear to want to re-enact the Napoleonic Wars.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Only in the fevered imaginations of Brexiteers as far as I can tell. It's just a shame that those imaginations so neatly correspond with Russia and Putin's geo-strategic goals...

Perhaps one of the most fascinating things about the past 10 years in geopolitics has been the willingness of the European hard right wing to embrace Russian interests. It's not just in the UK, but in countries like Poland and Spain too. It remains to be seen if this war will have any impact on politics, although what happened in Hungary should be a wake-up call for European countries.

For what it's worth, I strongly believe that the vast majority of Europeans wanted the softest form of Brexit possible.

 

[najaB]

For what it's worth, I strongly believe that the vast majority of Europeans wanted the softest form of Brexit possible.

I'm yet to meet anybody who wanted any form of Brexit. Most of the Europeans I speak with find the whole thing quite baffling.

 

[dgl]

I'm yet to meet anybody who wanted any form of Brexit. Most of the Europeans I speak with find the whole thing quite baffling.

Quite, even Le Pen didn't want to leave the EU and that's saying something.

 

[nw1]

Quite, even Le Pen didn't want to leave the EU and that's saying something.

It certainly is. What about Orban? He's probably the furthest-right actual leader (as opposed to candidate).

And of course I doubt Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Württemberg-Johnson actually wanted to leave the EU. He just saw it as a route to power; and being rich and powerful, I doubt his own options to do as he pleases in continental Europe will ever be restricted.

 

[dgl]

It certainly is. What about Orban? He's probably the furthest-right actual leader (as opposed to candidate).

And of course I doubt Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Wuerttemberg-Johnson actually wanted to leave the EU. He just saw it as a route to power; and being rich and powerful, I doubt his own options to do as he pleases in continental Europe will ever be restricted.

Naturally boris didn't want brexit, he just wanted to be seen as a brexiteer so that when the conservatives were looking for a new leader they would go for him as they would feel he was one of them. Naturally now he is in over his head and we are suffereing the consequences.

 

[Cowley]

Let’s not go too far down the Brexit route in this thread!

 

[Giugiaro]

Some would argue that the invasion wouldn't have taken place. I honestly don't know, but I think it's quite possible Putin views (or perhaps viewed) the US, and by default the West, as weak under Biden.

I felt that Russia would take matters into its own hands against Ukraine, regardless of who was the President of the United States.

The difference is that Trump as President would turn a blind eye.
Considering that Zelensky refused to find dirt on Biden, the war would also be a form of punishment.

Pair that with Trump's threats to leave NATO or ignore an Article 5 call.
I'd be hard-pressed to believe that the EU would deliver a strong response. Or do so without entering a direct conflict with Russia.